Nationwide building society expects house prices to fall 13.8 per cent this year

[leonardratso]

47 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

No, he's back on there.

I had to block him on twitter, he kept partitioning everyone on HPC, lied about when was last on there posting, called them all losers, there will be no crash, rates will rise, then they wont rise, etc etc etc etc.  I got sick of listening to it.

He looks like he's jumping on the bandwagon now, on the very site he was slagging off.  His message is kinda like DBs but less concise.  He'll be over here before long once he realises there's only 3 bear and 200 estate agents posting now

 

partitioning?

[AWW]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-52874347

This bloke isn't bothered. He's won enough to never worry about money again, reckons he can't work, but wants to get involved in doing up properties.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-52874347

This bloke isn't bothered. He's won enough to never worry about money again, reckons he can't work, but wants to get involved in doing up properties.

what a pillock 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

HTB estates should be where we see it first.Lots of younger people up to their naffs in it.Job losses and splitting up should start things rolling.The government might come in with some crazy scheme yet,but lets hope the CBs are turning off the liquidity by then as they likely will be.Its all bad for anyone who over paid the last several years.The only saving grace is the ones who bought with a good deposit and locked in a 10 year fix,they at least will avoid the high rates mid to late decade.

HTB on existing houses was cancelled, maybe due to lobbying by house builders to boost their profits on new builds, due to banks being more willing to lend with the governbankment guarantee backing their losses. However I think the governbankment will have to say "once an HTB house always an HTB house" and when it becomes a secondhand sale, allow the discount to apply if the buyer wants it. HTB is only glorified shared equity so that wouldn't make it any different to a normal shared equity. The governbankment has billions of liabilities in HTB and anything that kicks the can down the road will help cover their arses.

[DurhamBorn]

55 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

HTB on existing houses was cancelled, maybe due to lobbying by house builders to boost their profits on new builds, due to banks being more willing to lend with the governbankment guarantee backing their losses. However I think the governbankment will have to say "once an HTB house always an HTB house" and when it becomes a secondhand sale, allow the discount to apply if the buyer wants it. HTB is only glorified shared equity so that wouldn't make it any different to a normal shared equity. The governbankment has billions of liabilities in HTB and anything that kicks the can down the road will help cover their arses.

Yep,even the design of it its terrible.After 5 years the loan should turn into interest and capital repayment over the rest of the term.Given people have to pay 20% back if they sell then they will have zero deposit for another house as all HTB houses are going to be way down.The original 5% deposit is smoke etc.Just wait until mid cycle when rates start to increase,the crying and lobbying will be incredible.

[MrXxxx]

On 31/05/2020 at 11:42, JoeDavola said:

It will be interesting to see if/when reality hits.

There will be a long period of denial I think. The last crash in Northern Ireland  took 5 years from top to bottom, bottoming in 2012.

I think if prices do 'drop' it'll be years of people refusing to sell their house "for less than it's worth".

I'm concerned about my parents being able to sell their place; they have reached an age where they should downsize to a small bungalow. However despite there being one identical house in the street that hasn't sold for 6 months before the lock-down happened (and still hasn't sold), they wouldn't consider putting theirs on for any less.

Dad actually said to me last week that he expects a reduction in prices in certain areas but not in his house because <insert rationale here>. So I think basically they're stuck with a house that's un-sellable.

I think that's the attitude a lot of folk are going to take.

The problem is eventually they will find themselves in a position where mobility means they have to have a bungalow.At this point, unlike now they will be a distressed seller and so HAVE to take a bigger hit rather than at the moment they could CHOOSE to take a smaller one.

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

The problem is eventually they will find themselves in a position where mobility means they have to have a bungalow.At this point, unlike now they will be a distressed seller and so HAVE to take a bigger hit rather than at the moment they could CHOOSE to take a smaller one.

Yes.

We had a relative die a couple years back in squalor because they didn't downsize, so we've seen the danger of this before.

But sadly I think it'll take an emergency like poor health to force them to lower the price enough to sell.

[Malthus]

7 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes.

We had a relative die a couple years back in squalor because they didn't downsize, so we've seen the danger of this before.

But sadly I think it'll take an emergency like poor health to force them to lower the price enough to sell.

@JoeDavola

Did you hear talkback at lunchtime about the local property market an covid ?

Several EA’s complaining they had 100’s of delayed sales and masses of enquiries , just need to be unleashed 👍

Finished with a lady saying her purchase is in trouble as the surveyors aren’t working and the big banks have pulled all mortgage products from NI 

Cash buyer with a brass neck could do well in the next 6 months 👍

[JoeDavola]

6 minutes ago, Malthus said:

@JoeDavola

Did you hear talkback at lunchtime about the local property market an covid ?

Several EA’s complaining they had 100’s of delayed sales and masses of enquiries , just need to be unleashed 👍

Finished with a lady saying her purchase is in trouble as the surveyors aren’t working and the big banks have pulled all mortgage products from NI 

Cash buyer with a brass neck could do well in the next 6 months 👍

Don't trust anything the media says but there's the occasional bit of discussion on the NI sub-forum of ToS - a long time poster in the know saying that there's gonna be massive job losses but most folk don't know it yet; see last few comments here:

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/235920-first-time-buyer-in-belfast/page/3/#comments

I think it'll take longer than 6 months for drops to happen if they do happen but we'll see. I think there'd have to be actual repo's for their to be quick major drops and I don't think the government will allow that.

I guess it all hinges on whether lending returns to normal?

Having said that I'm still hoping to snap up a small detached house at some point in the next 3 years or so for less than it's on today. We'll see.

 

[Wight Flight]

10 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Whee!

 

My only caveat is that there is likely to be a huge lag in these being reflected in the market because sellers have an emotional attachment to their house "values".  ("It's worth a million a tell ya!").

The 1998 crash didn't fully work its way through into a full volume house market at those lower values until 1995/96.

Though this does mean that I'm going to have to start tracking the sort of house I want (ability to launch into creek / estuary from the bottom of the garden) so that I will spot when the reduction has been fully reflected in the asking price.

 

Recounted this to flight junior over dinner. I think it is the first time I have seen him actually happy in over two months.

[Malthus]

2 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Don't trust anything the media says but there's the occasional bit of discussion on the NI sub-forum of ToS - a long time poster in the know saying that there's gonna be massive job losses but most folk don't know it yet; see last few comments here:

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/235920-first-time-buyer-in-belfast/page/3/#comments

I think it'll take longer than 6 months for drops to happen if they do happen but we'll see. I think there'd have to be actual repo's for their to be quick major drops and I don't think the government will allow that.

Having said that I'm still hoping to snap up a small detached house at some point in the next 3 years or so for less than it's on today. We'll see.

 

Imo it might be quicker this time round, the previous crash showed the property isn’t a one way bet 

And there is still plenty of negative equity from 2007. 
 

Time will tell, people will laugh at me but I think the real danger this time for savers is inflation. 
The tsunami of easing that is coming has to go some where.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, Malthus said:

Time will tell, people will laugh at me but I think the real danger this time for savers is inflation. 

The tsunami of easing that is coming has to go some where.

Yeah.

There is a possiblitiy that the inflation could take off before the crash but I'm hoping there's a sweet spot between the two.

As I've said on ToS I refuse to pay £200K for a 2.5 bed semi in the Four Winds, which seems to be what counts as living the fucking dream these days.

[Malthus]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah.

There is a possiblitiy that the inflation could take off before the crash but I'm hoping there's a sweet spot between the two.

As I've said on ToS I refuse to pay £200K for a 2.5 bed semi in the Four Winds, which seems to be what counts as living the fucking dream these days.

Anyone who paid that will be crying in their pints (hopefully in a bar) in the near future. 
 

Also I don’t believe for one moment that the banks will forgive and forget those who have defaulted ( sorry taken mortgage holidays) 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

HTB on existing houses was cancelled, maybe due to lobbying by house builders to boost their profits on new builds, due to banks being more willing to lend with the governbankment guarantee backing their losses. However I think the governbankment will have to say "once an HTB house always an HTB house" and when it becomes a secondhand sale, allow the discount to apply if the buyer wants it. HTB is only glorified shared equity so that wouldn't make it any different to a normal shared equity. The governbankment has billions of liabilities in HTB and anything that kicks the can down the road will help cover their arses.

My friends daughter completed on a HTB on this estate for the same style house as this below.She paid £158k on HTB.She completed 3 months ago.She is 22,her boyfriend 24.There were ex council houses over the road at the time for £60k,but they wanted a new detached,looks like someone is now setting the price at £30k less.Says no chain,so i expect this is the first one here from the crisis to go under and HTB can chase after the money,or they will go bankrupt etc.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-84224498.html

A lot of people trying to sell before this crisis on that estate had semis up for £126k so they have no chance now because this detached is going to go for that or less.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

If they dont know nothing then they 'know something'!

Christ the grammar and the logic around here is fecking atrocious  

The English grammar here...a double negative is perfectly acceptable in a number of languages...perhaps he/she was translating literally from one of these :-)....anyway, you get back to posting your `Titty pictures`, they brighten up my day far more than being a grammar Nazi! :-)

[Frank Hovis]

7 minutes ago, Malthus said:

Imo it might be quicker this time round, the previous crash showed the property isn’t a one way bet 

And there is still plenty of negative equity from 2007. 
 

Time will tell, people will laugh at me but I think the real danger this time for savers is inflation. 
The tsunami of easing that is coming has to go some where.

Yes.

He holds cash when the government is in debt to its eyeballs is going to get poorer.

I don't know why "savers" has become shorthand for "those who hold cash deposits" but it has done both in your post and in a piece in The Mail today.

Why do people do it to themselves?

The only time I have had significant cash holdings in the last thirty years is when NS&I was doing regular issues of RPI + 1% bonds.

I filled my boots year after year and when inflation stalled I cashed it all in and bought a house.

Building society and bank deposit accounts shoudl be left in the 80s where they belong when interest rates significantly exceeded inflation.  They now fall below it and you are losing money people which is not going to change any time soon.  Once you've lost it it is gone for good.

[Castlevania]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My friends daughter completed on a HTB on this estate for the same style house as this below.She paid £158k on HTB.She completed 3 months ago.She is 22,her boyfriend 24.There were ex council houses over the road at the time for £60k,but they wanted a new detached,looks like someone is now setting the price at £30k less.Says no chain,so i expect this is the first one here from the crisis to go under and HTB can chase after the money,or they will go bankrupt etc.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-84224498.html

A lot of people trying to sell before this crisis on that estate had semis up for £126k so they have no chance now because this detached is going to go for that or less.

That house is pokey. The one bed flat I rent is at a guess bigger.

[leonardratso]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My friends daughter completed on a HTB on this estate for the same style house as this below.She paid £158k on HTB.She completed 3 months ago.She is 22,her boyfriend 24.There were ex council houses over the road at the time for £60k,but they wanted a new detached,looks like someone is now setting the price at £30k less.Says no chain,so i expect this is the first one here from the crisis to go under and HTB can chase after the money,or they will go bankrupt etc.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-84224498.html

A lot of people trying to sell before this crisis on that estate had semis up for £126k so they have no chance now because this detached is going to go for that or less.

thats a bit steep for a doll house, im sure i can knock one up cheaper than that with a bit of ply wood and a corrugated roof, would last just as long.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That house is pokey. The one bed flat I rent is at a guess bigger.

Yep dreadful ,lot more down to go on them.Imagine the parents encouraging their children to buy such crap.They can repent for the next 30 years.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

thats a bit steep for a doll house, im sure i can knock one up cheaper than that with a bit of ply wood and a corrugated roof, would last just as long.

Yep,they are all stuffed.I just cant understand how people buying them couldnt see it.Crazy.Those estates are everywhere and likely will turn into sink estates.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

The English grammar here...a double negative is perfectly acceptable in a number of languages...perhaps he/she was translating literally from one of these :-)....anyway, you get back to posting your `Titty pictures`, they brighten up my day far more than being a grammar Nazi! :-)

https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/yogi-berras-greatest-quotes-quips/3/

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

My friends daughter completed on a HTB on this estate for the same style house as this below.She paid £158k on HTB.She completed 3 months ago.She is 22,her boyfriend 24.There were ex council houses over the road at the time for £60k,but they wanted a new detached,looks like someone is now setting the price at £30k less.Says no chain,so i expect this is the first one here from the crisis to go under and HTB can chase after the money,or they will go bankrupt etc.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-84224498.html

A lot of people trying to sell before this crisis on that estate had semis up for £126k so they have no chance now because this detached is going to go for that or less.

That one is No 14 sold for £149,950 in Dec 2015. If sold at full asking now, done their £7.5k deposit and £12.5k for taxpayers. No idea how rent up there would compare to their mortgage payments.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

That one is No 14 sold for £149,950 in Dec 2015. If sold at full asking now, done their £7.5k deposit and £12.5k for taxpayers. No idea how rent up there would compare to their mortgage payments.

Can rent a 3 bed ex council for around £420 a month.Nice to know taxpayers have sent that £12.5k to the housing execs.They could of used it to build houses themselves and rent out.It will of been a repayment mortgage so maybe £13k of capital payments over  5 years so that is down the drain.

Notice as well Zoopla have estimated value at  £146k to £161k, oh dear,little bit out there.I take it they update with sales ?

[AWW]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

There were ex council houses over the road at the time for £60k,but they wanted a new detached

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-84224498.html

Jesus Christ, that looks exactly, and I mean EXACTLY like the 80s-built council house that my grandparents used to rent in east Leeds. Same design, same roof, same colour brickwork and pointing, everything. Except my grandparents' council house had four bedrooms, two lounges and a kitchen about the size of the entire ground floor of this shoebox.

The ex council house over the road would probably have been better-built as well.

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, AWW said:

Jesus Christ, that looks exactly, and I mean EXACTLY like the 80s-built council house that my grandparents used to rent in east Leeds. Same design, same roof, same colour brickwork and pointing, everything. Except my grandparents' council house had four bedrooms, two lounges and a kitchen about the size of the entire ground floor of this shoebox.

The ex council house over the road would probably have been better-built as well.

Much better built,they were built in the late 60s and early 70s to very good standards.£60k they were going for 100 yards away.The irony is the new built estate has more social housing on it than the ex council estate.The people buying dont know that though.They dont  know that next door might be one of the 20% for the housing association.