Emergency Budget

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

That I can totally get, there has been an unfairness in the property market system now for the last 20 years, but I was personally  as certain as I could be that this bubble was only going to pop come a black swan event, that's why I also thought housepricecrash.com was a total joke, and I have now been proved right.

It is now ingrained in so many peoples DNA that things cannot change, even when pure logic says it just cannot go on anymore, and it can't. Just get your self a beer or malt or whatever, get a big notepad and just do the sums one afternoon, It really is happening this time.

I really hope you are right as this is the perfect time.  As you said:

Quote

C-19 is now the perfect scapegoat to crash the property market and where nobody will be held accountable

Could not be more correct.

[haroldshand]

Seriously, you are not the only one that is now weather beaten, it really surprises me just how many people who once could give you a solid argument as to why the property market will crash as far back as the early 2000's, and were so wrong by the way, who now when it is finally here and the evidence is rock solid now reject the idea outright 

[Boon]

It gives the government some great latitude to bring in what they want.

Would a great idea not be to whack up some big blocks of flats relatively close to hospitals, Singapore style? Nothing fancy, like the 'luxury' newbuilds going up, just average stuff. A massive block of glass-fronted modular style apartments would not necessarily be an eye-sore and not be too expensive to put up.

The idea then is that NHS workers and other selected key staff get to purchase one of these discounted rates, on the proviso of continued employment. Valuation would be done at fixed rates as every flat would be the same. If someone has to leave, the transaction is done in-house instead of going via estate agents.

This solves quite a few problems, it would be a backdoor payrise for these staff, it would give them security of tenure instead of paying high rents, they could be located close to work.

I don't think it'll be popular though. People don't want security of tenure, they want mad gains.

 

[Wight Flight]

20 hours ago, Boon said:

It gives the government some great latitude to bring in what they want.

Would a great idea not be to whack up some big blocks of flats relatively close to hospitals, Singapore style? Nothing fancy, like the 'luxury' newbuilds going up, just average stuff. A massive block of glass-fronted modular style apartments would not necessarily be an eye-sore and not be too expensive to put up.

The idea then is that NHS workers and other selected key staff get to purchase one of these discounted rates, on the proviso of continued employment. Valuation would be done at fixed rates as every flat would be the same. If someone has to leave, the transaction is done in-house instead of going via estate agents.

This solves quite a few problems, it would be a backdoor payrise for these staff, it would give them security of tenure instead of paying high rents, they could be located close to work.

I don't think it'll be popular though. People don't want security of tenure, they want mad gains.

 

Why not just let them rent them, council house style? 

That is the most secure tenure there is.

 

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Why not just let them rent them, council house style? 

That is the most secure tenure there is.

 

What with the level of PPE the government provides?...their tenants would be moving out every week....in a box! :-)

[Funn3r]

On 14/06/2020 at 12:18, Boon said:

The idea then is that NHS workers and other selected key staff get to purchase one of these discounted rates, on the proviso of continued employment.

As a kid I grew up in a row of houses opposite a (now closed) cotton mill. I was always told the houses were built at the same time as the mill so that there was a steady supply of local workers.

[haroldshand]

23 hours ago, Funn3r said:

As a kid I grew up in a row of houses opposite a (now closed) cotton mill. I was always told the houses were built at the same time as the mill so that there was a steady supply of local workers.

What a weird concept, building houses to encourage workers, how outrageous, whatever next. Social housing in Britain today is for the most needy,  i.e people whose family planning started before thinking about training, getting a job and then saving a little etc.

Once upon a time getting a job, married and planning that first child with a level of self reliance was a prerequisite to getting a council home, that sort of thinking today would put you at the bottom of the housing list.

[Jimmy64]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1277965118840516609/photo/1

Bump - Economic update from the Chancellor on 8 July.

Just made a lump-sum contribution to my ISA in case the ISA subscription thresholds are reduced (will hold in cash due to personal circumstances, but wouldn't be surprised if there are some tax announcements sneaked into the update).

[Wight Flight]

What is going on with this Stamp Duty rumour?

Am I hearing that he is proposing to cut it, but not until the Autumn budget, but will announce it now?

That will be fun if true!

[spunko]

23 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

What is going on with this Stamp Duty rumour?

Am I hearing that he is proposing to cut it, but not until the Autumn budget, but will announce it now?

That will be fun if true!

Recent governments don't have the strength of character or conviction to do anything on a whim. So they ask their Fleet Street mates what they think. If it's not met with too much hostility then they ask them to write about it, and that it "may" be implemented by central Government at some nonspecific date in future.

If the reaction is negative, they tweak it or just outright drop the idea.

If the reaction is positive, they bring forward the plans. This is exactly what has happened here - it now looks like SDLT will be dropped from tomorrow, i.e. immediately. A few days ago, it was going to be "announced" in the Autumn Budget.

Messing around with SDLT won't do much for the housing market, thankfully. It'll still crash and burn. At least Token Sunak can say he's done something.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, spunko said:

Recent governments don't have the strength of character or conviction to do anything on a whim. So they ask their Fleet Street mates what they think. If it's not met with too much hostility then they ask them to write about it, and that it "may" be implemented by central Government at some nonspecific date in future.

They've been talking to wealth managers about a wealth tax too! 

[Chewing Grass]

What time is it going live, need to know when to apply the Vaseline and bend over.

[Green Devil]

I expect he will penalise savers. Any money or cash in the bank you have over your salary will be taxed at say 20% from next autumn. 

At the same time introduce a stamp duty holiday immediately. That'd give the property market the required pump to get the 'UK economy (read that as property market) ' going. 

Then print another trillion for his banker mates and introduce a national clap for our NHS cough bank-ers holiday. 

[Frank Hovis]

On 14/06/2020 at 12:08, haroldshand said:

Seriously, you are not the only one that is now weather beaten, it really surprises me just how many people who once could give you a solid argument as to why the property market will crash as far back as the early 2000's, and were so wrong by the way, who now when it is finally here and the evidence is rock solid now reject the idea outright 

That's me.

What has been trashed time and again is my expectation that the government will play fair when it comes to house prices; letting them rise or fall as the market demands.

Instead every time they look like they might fall there is another pull on the heater to keep the balloon rising.

• Sub 1% interest rates
• Help to Buy
• Stamp duty holiday

And, as Jimmy Cricket said, there's more. 

• MIRAS (mortgage interest relief at source - offset against income tax) can be brought back at any time
• The government could underwrite all mortgages so making them even cheaper as there is then no risk premium for the banks
• Then there is government taking a charge against anybody falling behind with their mortgage to stop them being repossessed so that the government starts directly owning a chunk of the housing stock; or everyone buying just 40% of a house with the government taking the other 60%

 

I have been expecting house prices to fall substantially since 1998 and it hasn't happened; even 2008 was a blip.

This is what Sunderland fans must feel like; you want promotion but in your heart of hearts you know it's another relegation coming.

[Austin Allegro]

On 07/06/2020 at 19:49, spunko said:

I reckon he'll close the dividend earnings loophole. There's enough support from the population, mostly idiots, who think self employed people are just tax dodgers who should be on paye. 

 

Probably true. Many people in my experience don't understand that tax is not an exact science or a clear cut area and much of it is bargained out between governments and large corporations. Joe Public seems to think that if they have to pay 20% of their income in tax then why doesn't Amazon have to? Then they start trying to argue from emotion, saying corporations have 'moral duties' etc.

[dgul]

Nice bit of analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/research/137

It is a better and more accurate read than their actual budget analysis. 

[Harley]

The cash flasher has started talking now.  Buzzword bingo so far!

[Ash4781b]

Gordon Brown will endorse this!

[Ash4781b]

Here comes the house prices.

[Wight Flight]

Well that's me fucked then. 

[Ash4781b]

Loads of daft schemes coming out today. Meals out deal. Madness!

[Harley]

Cash out to eat out.  "Never been tried before".  No kidding!  Tosspottery.

Reduced VAT for some sounds a possible good move.  Will the EU be funding that given it's an EU tax?  Vielen Dank!

Anyone trust our Administration to ensure proper apprenticeships, etc or just the usual cons?  Do we need more apprentice dishwashers?

I liked the "if I say November, people will say December", etc.  About time!  Did you hear that Beth and co?

Oh dear, here comes the other socialist....not so much on finance though.

Anyway, the devil is in the supporting papers sent out by the Treasury.

[kibuc]

 

 

[Castlevania]

VAT cut to 5% on Tourism and Hospitality. What are the chances that this will be passed on to the consumer?

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

VAT cut to 5% on Tourism and Hospitality. What are the chances that this will be passed on to the consumer?

I hope it isn't. And also hope that people don't expect it.

That is 15% directly on the bottom line of pubs. Which is probably good enough to allow them to survive at 50% capacity.

And the grief of reprinting all the menus  - nah. Let them keep it. look upon it as a compulsory tip.