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Am I the only person who think house prices will go up?


Am I the last bear turned bull ?  

24 members have voted

  1. 1. Am I the last bear turned bull ?

    • Yes
      18
    • No
      6


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12 years I've been sat here watching the housing pyramid (scam).

The whole thing defies belief.

12 years I've sat thinking finally we've reached the end of it.

Now everyone is convinced this is it, prices are going to finally collapse.

Not me though, from all I've witnessed I think we might see a small fall followed by massive government intervention and at the very least support of current prices.

Am I the last bear turned bull ?

 

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Looking at the period between now and 2030: They are not IMO going to go up in real terms; not a chance. Depending upon how badly the currency is going to be trashed they still stand a

That's a fair point, but I want UK House prices to go through the floor. I want the BTLers to suffer.  I want bankers chucking themselves out windows.  I want the SE to be hit with a tsunami of repos.

OK, admission time. My daughter was married to a prison officer, they got divorced. Well I assumed that things could only get better. She called to tell me about her new guy, "what does this

Posted Images

Posted (edited)

It'll be extremely difficult to avoid house prices following the collapse of the stock market as well as oil prices but for sure Team Boris and Rishi are working flat out on the issue even as we speak - within the creation of the brand new economy.  The brand new economy soon to be unveiled.  

They'll have to - their fear of a house price collapse can be sensed from those attending the daily press briefings.  It's palpable.

For sure they won't want all the benefits of all the subsidies and scams over past decades to just vanish into thin air just like that. 

Very likely the brand new economy will be entirely designed around it - just like the now bygone economy.

 

 

Edited by twocents
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3 minutes ago, twocents said:

It'll be extremely difficult for house prices not to follow the collapse of the stock market as well as oil prices but for sure Team Boris and Rishi are working flat out on the issue even as we speak - within the creation of the brand new economy.  The brand new economy soon to be unveiled.  

They'll have to - their fear of a house price collapse can be sensed from those attending the daily press briefings.  It's palpable.

For sure they won't want all the benefits of all the subsidies and scams over past decades to just vanish into thin air just like that. 

Very likely the brand new economy will be entirely designed around it - like the now bygone economy.

 

 

 

Oil prices I give you the stock markets haven't really collapsed.

FTSE 100  Year, back to 2016 levels though if you had been in through those five years you additioanlly have five years of dividend income.

image.png.a3e06f042e6803a9c809c61dbed67b28.png

Dow Jones 5 year back to 2018 levels, again with dividend income on top if you have held since then.

image.png.9db9c3c64c9661b245191128a01c6b66.png

 

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Oil prices I give you the stock markets haven't really collapsed.

FTSE 100  Year, back to 2016 levels though if you had been in through those five years you additioanlly have five years of dividend income.

image.png.a3e06f042e6803a9c809c61dbed67b28.png

Dow Jones 5 year back to 2018 levels, again with dividend income on top if you have held since then.

image.png.9db9c3c64c9661b245191128a01c6b66.png

 

 

There's been a definite stock market collapse - at one point the ftse100 was rapidly down about 30%. 

Dividends will have mitigated losses (like rentals would with a BtL portfolio) but there's still been a huge collapse in stock prices with the ftse100 at one point rapidly back down to 1997 levels and some might say it could get even worse.

House prices should follow to some extent but for sure Boris and Rishi are working on it.

Edited by twocents
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At least everyone is in agreement that the bankster crooks will try and do everything they can to support prices, we've already had some tasters of that.

I still cannot believe what I have witnessed in the last 20 years

3 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

IMO it all rests on what unemployment dose 

If i have learnt anything in the last 15 years it`s TPTB have managed to control the two major building blocks required for a crash and that`s forced sellers and credit supply 

It would not surprise me if the BOE started doing mortgages ,if push came to shove

They already are. Term Funding.

It wouldn't surprise me if they just bought all the houses at whatever price anyone asked.

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I said right at the very early stages of this all I can see happening is another post-2008 scenario all over again, more cheap money, more debt and even more asset price inflation.

Yes there might be a few job losses, but that's no big deal, they'll just all become cupcake makers and kids party face painters having their non-existent earnings ''topped up'' with UC.

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22 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

12 years I've been sat here watching the housing pyramid (scam).

The whole thing defies belief.

12 years I've sat thinking finally we've reached the end of it.

Now everyone is convinced this is it, prices are going to finally collapse.

Not me though, from all I've witnessed I think we might see a small fall followed by massive government intervention and at the very least support of current prices.

Am I the last bear turned bull ?

 

What's your housing situation now? Do you own any property or are renting?

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34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What's your housing situation now? Do you own any property or are renting?

Own a very nice house in France, came back to tge UK for a while to do some contract work on account of being bored, so renting here. Won't make that mistake again 😉

Making the most of my 6 months or so to annoy the trolls 🤣

 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Royston said:

I said right at the very early stages of this all I can see happening is another post-2008 scenario all over again, more cheap money, more debt and even more asset price inflation.

Yes there might be a few job losses, but that's no big deal, they'll just all become cupcake makers and kids party face painters having their non-existent earnings ''topped up'' with UC.

Yup this i how it will be. House prices will drop over the next 3-4 years before they hit their historic norms for a month or two. Then a new bubble will be pumped up, house prices will be more expensive than ever. Actual transaction numbers will continue to fall off a cliff and even then 90%+ of buyers will be BTL scumlords. Houses will continue to be sub-divided to maximise profits and misery to tenants. Round here I've already seen 1-bed flats being turned into 2 studios. Every house which gets brought up is either turned into a HMO or flats. I know loads of 30 year olds still in shared houses.

Each time this cycle happens the average person will get much poorer until most people no longer have any stake in society. Civil unrest will go through the roof. Who cares if your city burns down when all you have is a room in a shared house and shit low paid employment.

Edited by gibbon
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9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Own a very nice house in France, came back to tge UK for a while to do some contract work on account of being bored, so renting here. Won't make that mistake again 😉

Making the most of my 6 months or so to annoy the trolls 🤣

 

Sorry but the last bear to turn bull cannot be a property owner, so you don't qualify. You have a vested interest now and could be thinking the more prices go up in the UK, the more overspill there could be abroad, to make houses in France worth more.

 

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3 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'm sure they'll do whatever it takes to protect the housing market.  The only question is what will the other effects be.

What will be attempted is stoking general inflation: wages, goods and services.

If they succeed everything goes up by 30% over the next ten years then even with a 20% real terms fall in house prices they will still be 10% higher.

That's the dream solution for governments if they can engineer that to happen without having to massively rise interest rates because inflation starts running away.

Take Joe or Josephine Normal.

Now on £30k, house at £200k is unaffordable, 7x multiple.  They're not happy.

Scroll forward ten years.

Now on £40k, house at £220k is now affordable with a decent deposit at 5.5x multiple.  They're happier.

 

The big problem for the government is how to start that inflation going; they (and the EU and the US) have been trying to make inflation rise for over a decade without much luck.

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6 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Now on £30k, house at £200k is unaffordable, 7x multiple.  They're not happy.

Scroll forward ten years.

Now on £40k, house at £220k is now affordable with a decent deposit at 5.5x multiple.  They're happier.

 

 

Scroll forward ten years....Joe or Josephine Normal are now 50 and have no way of paying off the mortgage before they die.  They are not happy.

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Sorry but the last bear to turn bull cannot be a property owner, so you don't qualify. You have a vested interest now and could be thinking the more prices go up in the UK, the more overspill there could be abroad, to make houses in France worth more.

 

That's a fair point, but I want UK House prices to go through the floor. I want the BTLers to suffer.  I want bankers chucking themselves out windows.  I want the SE to be hit with a tsunami of repos. I want politicians and central bankers to face public show trials. I want the young to have a future. I want an end to debt slavery. 

Not everything is about money,  my house in France is worth nothing to me. I can't take it with me.

A legacy of fairness and sanity in the UK is priceless for all tho.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8382097/Boris-Johnson-willingly-offer-THREE-MILLION-people-Hong-Kong-refuge-UK.html

35 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'm sure they'll do whatever it takes to protect the housing market.  The only question is what will the other effects be.

Import hundreds of thousands of Hong Kong Chinese who are already conditioned to paying extortionate prices to live in tiny slave boxes. 

Job done, property market saved.

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31 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I made the msitake of telling Mrs P we might consdier buying.Bless her,she was striaght on RM.................had to let her down gently when I pointed out that our oilies/PM trades are doing nicely and I'm not letting any go to buy something that'll halve in value and cost us money over ten years.

I had a quick look and around us,you wouldn't beleive how many £500k places are up for sale.A little bit of research by yours truly here.Interesting in terms of market liquidty

Houses for sale over £500k LE7=64 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/LE7.html?propertyType=DETACHED&page=1

Houses that have sold over £500k since June 1st 2019=34

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/LE7.html?propertyType=DETACHED&page=1

So roughly two years supply in houses>£500k

 

 

Using all hosuetypes/prices tehre are 355 hosues for sale.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/LE7.html?propertyType=DETACHED&page=1

going back to 1st June 2019 there were roughly 700 sales

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/LE7.html?page=28

So roughly,we have 6 months supply in allhouses/prices

 

 

A lot of people will think I'm stating the obvious here but one end of this market is going to get absolutely mullered more than the ohter.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

What will be attempted is stoking general inflation: wages, goods and services.

If they succeed everything goes up by 30% over the next ten years then even with a 20% real terms fall in house prices they will still be 10% higher.

That's the dream solution for governments if they can engineer that to happen without having to massively rise interest rates because inflation starts running away.

Take Joe or Josephine Normal.

Now on £30k, house at £200k is unaffordable, 7x multiple.  They're not happy.

Scroll forward ten years.

Now on £40k, house at £220k is now affordable with a decent deposit at 5.5x multiple.  They're happier.

 

The big problem for the government is how to start that inflation going; they (and the EU and the US) have been trying to make inflation rise for over a decade without much luck.

£200k is already affordable if they look forward enough to what is inevitable with the value of the £. Just need some life of mortgage fixed low rate products so if inflation does take off the debt is eroded.

Inflation can be stoked by using the virus and a backlash against China to bring in trade war protectionism and more jobs/manufacturing back to the west.

6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Scroll forward ten years....Joe or Josephine Normal are now 50 and have no way of paying off the mortgage before they die.  They are not happy.

Intergenerational mortgages so the inheritance of the property includes the debt. Devaluation of the £ means the outstanding debt is likely to be outweighted by the value of the property if the repayment period is not too short. i.e. mortgage lender will set a minimum term for the loan rather than allow early repayment without sufficient penalty.

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5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i notice my chinese shit is more or less all going thru customs now, used to just bypass it wholesale, im down to not buying any more really, just 1 or 2 last bits of tat then ill make do and done.

I have also noticed that quite a bit of specialist stuff has become unobtainable from the UK guys that had stock all the time 3 months ago, and very thin on the ground if you try and buy direct. Prices have risen accordingly on what little stock is out there.

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, BoSon said:

£200k is already affordable if they look forward enough to what is inevitable with the value of the £. Just need some life of mortgage fixed low rate products so if inflation does take off the debt is eroded.

Inflation can be stoked by using the virus and a backlash against China to bring in trade war protectionism and more jobs/manufacturing back to the west.

Intergenerational mortgages so the inheritance of the property includes the debt. Devaluation of the £ means the outstanding debt is likely to be outweighted by the value of the property if the repayment period is not too short. i.e. mortgage lender will set a minimum term for the loan rather than allow early repayment without sufficient penalty.

When it comes to that, leave the UK for there is NO future here

 

"£200k is already affordable" because interest rates are at 0%. This will not last much longer acording to the people in the know.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I have also noticed that quite a bit of specialist stuff has become unobtainable from the UK guys that had stock all the time 3 months ago, and very thin on the ground if you try and buy direct. Prices have risen accordingly on what little stock is out there.

You are right, I sent one the lads to the wholesaler for a longweight and he was out for ages trying to find somewhere with one.

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