Am I the only person who think house prices will go up?

[Option5]

25 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

So there are bound to be people with cash to spend from divorce, inheritance etc, who are going to slow and drops down for a while.

There may be quite a few deaths and divorces to be sorted out after shutdown. Covid will be to blame for the former, lockdown for the latter.

Interesting times ahead.

[haroldshand]

On 02/06/2020 at 10:39, TheCountOfNowhere said:

12 years I've been sat here watching the housing pyramid (scam).

The whole thing defies belief.

12 years I've sat thinking finally we've reached the end of it.

Now everyone is convinced this is it, prices are going to finally collapse.

Not me though, from all I've witnessed I think we might see a small fall followed by massive government intervention and at the very least support of current prices.

Am I the last bear turned bull ?

 

Cannot believe you are asking that question June 2020, had you the same question between 2010-2019 then it would have made sense. If Furlough ended 100% yesterday house price falls of -20% plus are still priced in, the fact that this has not ended makes me thinking there is a big number coming and its not pointing up

[haroldshand]

On 06/06/2020 at 09:51, Option5 said:

OK, admission time.

My daughter was married to a prison officer, they got divorced. Well I assumed that things could only get better.

She called to tell me about her new guy, "what does this one do for a living" I enquired, my hopes were dashed when she told me.

Estate Agent  !!!! Arrrrggggghhhhhh

 Advice please, should I disown her?

Kill the c*** 

[haroldshand]

On 08/06/2020 at 09:25, spunko said:

Thinking there'll be government props is the new "property prices will crash"    When you least expect it, something else entirely will happen. Like a pandemic...

Not a chance this time, the ammo store is now out of rounds. I seriously thought as far back as early April that this was without doubt it, the inevitable property crash. The civil unrest happening  now has only increased my belief that we are in for at least 5 years of financial hell, one black guy tripping over a bar of soap in a cell and breaking his neck now, and that's it, anarchy.

[Option5]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

Kill the c*** 

Him or her? 

[Green Devil]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

Not a chance this time, the ammo store is now out of rounds. I seriously thought as far back as early April that this was without doubt it, the inevitable property crash. The civil unrest happening  now has only increased my belief that we are in for at least 5 years of financial hell, one black guy tripping over a bar of soap in a cell and breaking his neck now, and that's it, anarchy.

Nah, they have negative mortgage rates in the arsenal. Pay the feckless and debt ridden for their house.

Cant think why they wouldnt do it, it targets their favourite consumer, the debt laden spender with a merc and a overpriced shoebox. Typical Tory voter. Why not pay them for their loyalty?

[Lightscribe]

Well I’ve aired my views many times on here and HPC. I sold my house in 2007 and I remember reading ‘the count’s’ posts on HPC back then. My ex-partner then re-bought and was in negative equity for 10 years while I travelled the world with a fair wedge behind me.

Everyone on HPC became disillusioned as the 2010/11 dip didn’t crash into the nothingness that they expected. Government props and endless BTL tax incentives meant it was never going to collapse as much as they hoped. Endless money printing, asset bubble bonanzas were always on the cards.

Now is a totally different kettle of fish, the big kahuna is here and HPC’ers may finally have their day and the count is saying he doesn’t think they’ll go down??

For the next couple of months, they’ll be a flurry of transactions as backlogs of chains clear. Nationwide and Halifax statistics will shout from the roof tops ‘virus recession cancelled, house prices to the moon!’

Reality will hit when furlough ends, millions unemployed, BTL landlords won’t be getting rent. That on top of death, divorce and debt will signal the forced sellers. Main cities will be the first to get it and the likes of luxury London flat demand will flatline and construction sites will get mothballed.

Sort after Cornish coastal areas where wealthy second home owners are shacked up working from home, won’t feel the pain....yet.

HMOs become unrentable/unsellable  with less service personnel workers renting, more and more forced BTL sellers come to the market. 2.5million BTL landlords that are 55 or over will start to realise the game is up.

By this time next year, my ‘pencilled in’ estimates see greater London will be 20-30-% down and nationally will be 10-15% down depending on area.

[Wight Flight]

3 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Kill the c*** 

May I be the first to congratulate you on the most concise and appropriate introductory post this forum has seen so far.

 

[haroldshand]

12 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Nah, they have negative mortgage rates in the arsenal. Pay the feckless and debt ridden for their house.

Cant think why they wouldnt do it, it targets their favourite consumer, the debt laden spender with a merc and a overpriced shoebox. Typical Tory voter. Why not pay them for their loyalty?

Something on the level if not greater than the 2007/08 crisis is needed, and there is no way they have that type of arsenal now. Reducing interest rates from(if memory serves) 6% to close on zero, debt forgiveness, repayment to interest only mortgages, then the years of gimmicks that followed, HTB, RTB etc etc etc.

OK, there maybe the "lets open the inflation flood gates" or negative interest rates like you say, but it's just a drop in the Ocean and on the inflation side that opens up a whole new can of worms that the markets just will not put with.

I think many of you  and the young public in general are jaded, and to be fair it has been the shittiest time in a long time for young educated aspirational people, and just are now conditioned to believe this is the way things are. You need to look at the C-19 a little deeper, on the surface it all likes manageable and quite pleasant to a point, but come Autumn that is when the sparks are going to start flying. Get your note pad out, do some basic maths, look at the indicators, there is just know way you pull out of this dive without any damage.

On another note and without wanting to go too deeply into all this conspiratorial  stuff, there really is something going on this year. C-19, and in my opinion totally overblown and just the perfect suspect for the s*** hitting the economic fan scenario and a race war brewing in society(pray to God no) in the middle of it all.

[haroldshand]

12 hours ago, Option5 said:

Him or her? 

The estate agent of course 

Trust me, your daughter will test you forever and break your heart a few times 

[haroldshand]

11 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Well I’ve aired my views many times on here and HPC. I sold my house in 2007 and I remember reading ‘the count’s’ posts on HPC back then. My ex-partner then re-bought and was in negative equity for 10 years while I travelled the world with a fair wedge behind me.

Everyone on HPC became disillusioned as the 2010/11 dip didn’t crash into the nothingness that they expected. Government props and endless BTL tax incentives meant it was never going to collapse as much as they hoped. Endless money printing, asset bubble bonanzas were always on the cards.

Now is a totally different kettle of fish, the big kahuna is here and HPC’ers may finally have their day and the count is saying he doesn’t think they’ll go down??

For the next couple of months, they’ll be a flurry of transactions as backlogs of chains clear. Nationwide and Halifax statistics will shout from the roof tops ‘virus recession cancelled, house prices to the moon!’

Reality will hit when furlough ends, millions unemployed, BTL landlords won’t be getting rent. That on top of death, divorce and debt will signal the forced sellers. Main cities will be the first to get it and the likes of luxury London flat demand will flatline and construction sites will get mothballed.

Sort after Cornish coastal areas where wealthy second home owners are shacked up working from home, won’t feel the pain....yet.

HMOs become unrentable/unsellable  with less service personnel workers renting, more and more forced BTL sellers come to the market. 2.5million BTL landlords that are 55 or over will start to realise the game is up.

By this time next year, my ‘pencilled in’ estimates see greater London will be 20-30-% down and nationally will be 10-15% down depending on area.

I agree with most of that and still think you are under playing this 

Please tell me you are not using that crappy HPC website, though there are/were a handful of very bright guys there, hope they are here now. 

Are they still whittling on about Brexit and their hate for Boris and Dominic Cummings, I swear that site has now been taken over by Momentum supporters.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

I agree with most of that and still think you are under playing this 

Please tell me you are not using that crappy HPC website, though there are/were a handful of very bright guys there, hope they are here now. 

Are they still whittling on about Brexit and their hate for Boris and Dominic Cummings, I swear that site has now been taken over by Momentum supporters.

All the trolls have moved here too. 

[Fully Detached]

Any possibility that the inevitable "Help To..." schemes this time around might actually be aimed at helping people mitigate the effects of negative equity rather than protecting house prices? Seems to me that would potentially be a much cheaper and more productive solution than the usual forcing credit out to debt laden consumers in a high unemployment environment.

Lots of reasons I'm thinking this - the furlough and business loans schemes suggest the focus from now on is protecting jobs which means loans to businesses, not consumers, and while I know people will argue otherwise I personally don't see huge demand for mortgage credit over the next couple of years anyway. Politically falling house prices are much less taboo than they were 10 years ago, with an ever increasing number of angry and priced out voters. A bit of an education campaign would go a long way to correcting the view that ever rising house prices are a good thing - esepcially if you help those with negative equity. "Hey, yep you lost £70k, but you can still move thanks to the help we're giving you, you've still got 10 years left on the mortgage for inflation to work its magic, and hey, now your kids can finally afford a place of their own. And BTW, that place you want to trade up to also just got 40% cheaper."

In that world, you minimise unemployment through loans to business, and that'll see an increase in wages which means a recovering economy. The hit to the banks is mitigated by the negative equity help.

Probably bollocks, but just a thought.

[haroldshand]

2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

All the trolls have moved here too. 

Depends how you define troll.

Calling out Bruce Banner for example for posting some of the biggest load of bollox I have probably ever read on the internet is not trolling, the Brexit and political threads have now totally been taken over by left wing nutters

[stop_the_craziness]

If a large number of recent buyers and BOMAD-backed purchasers are currently on repayment mortgages then what's to stop the banks offering to "help" by offering to convert them to IO mortgages to them to stop them from having to sell their houses and crystallise the price falls?

[Don Coglione]

On 12/06/2020 at 12:07, haroldshand said:

Depends how you define troll.

Calling out Bruce Banner for example for posting some of the biggest load of bollox I have probably ever read on the internet is not trolling, the Brexit and political threads have now totally been taken over by left wing nutters

Brucie Bonus wasn't alone in his spouting bollocks; a few of his allies are very close to home here...

[King Penda]

On 03/06/2020 at 09:25, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Own a very nice house in France, came back to tge UK for a while to do some contract work on account of being bored, so renting here. Won't make that mistake again 😉

Making the most of my 6 months or so to annoy the trolls 🤣

 

I feed on trolls so that could make me a cannibal 

[Option5]

On 12/06/2020 at 10:19, TheCountOfNowhere said:

All the trolls have moved here too. 

I even reside in Norway 😁

Feel free to cross my bridge.....

[King Penda]

On 12/06/2020 at 12:07, haroldshand said:

Depends how you define troll.

Calling out Bruce Banner for example for posting some of the biggest load of bollox I have probably ever read on the internet is not trolling, the Brexit and political threads have now totally been taken over by left wing nutters

 

On 12/06/2020 at 08:01, haroldshand said:

I agree with most of that and still think you are under playing this 

Please tell me you are not using that crappy HPC website, though there are/were a handful of very bright guys there, hope they are here now. 

Are they still whittling on about Brexit and their hate for Boris and Dominic Cummings, I swear that site has now been taken over by Momentum supporters.

If anything will force hmos out it will be the council chasing council tax for each individual .at the moment the owners are just trying to pay full council tax for the house not 5 plus single individuals who live there ok they might get the single persons discount but it’s going to increase the landlords costs conciderably .ive just seem a local guy crying his tits off has his converted pub with 11 residents which to be fair did meet all safety aspects has seen his council tax bill jump by many thousands of pounds a year he has had to shut it down and its up for sale ps I’m aware that most hmos are also under the radar .https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/this-immoral-unfair--landlords-3417636.amp

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

 

If anything will force hmos out it will be the council chasing council tax for each individual .at the moment the owners are just trying to pay full council tax for the house not 5 plus single individuals who live there ok they might get the single persons discount but it’s going to increase the landlords costs conciderably .ive just seem a local guy crying his tits off has his converted pub with 11 residents which to be fair did meet all safety aspects has seen his council tax bill jump by many thousands of pounds a year he has had to shut it down and its up for sale ps I’m aware that most hmos are also under the radar .https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/this-immoral-unfair--landlords-3417636.amp

As far as I can tell I think that's because he's turned each room effectively into a bedsit so they're basically 10 different flats. Don't think it would apply in a hmo shared house, though would probably be a good idea, with the landlord liable 😁

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

As far as I can tell I think that's because he's turned each room effectively into a bedsit so they're basically 10 different flats. Don't think it would apply in a hmo shared house, though would probably be a good idea, with the landlord liable 😁

You might be right there I’m not sure on the rules of hmo and council tax

[haroldshand]

3 hours ago, stokiescum said:

 

If anything will force hmos out it will be the council chasing council tax for each individual .at the moment the owners are just trying to pay full council tax for the house not 5 plus single individuals who live there ok they might get the single persons discount but it’s going to increase the landlords costs conciderably .ive just seem a local guy crying his tits off has his converted pub with 11 residents which to be fair did meet all safety aspects has seen his council tax bill jump by many thousands of pounds a year he has had to shut it down and its up for sale ps I’m aware that most hmos are also under the radar .https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/this-immoral-unfair--landlords-3417636.amp

Ehhh???

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Ehhh???

Well

fuck me I could have some fun with u my darling xxx

[Castlevania]

I thought Stoke had cheap Council Tax?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

I thought Stoke had cheap Council Tax prostitutes?