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https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=206&t=1862916

I have followed this thread for a while, it is becoming more and more comical. Following the esteemed durhamborn's mantra of "the market always hurts the largest possible number of people", the big sell-off can't be too far away...

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Right on cue, a relative (in the US) has just sent a screen-shot of her portfolio.

Up 30% in 3 months (when she started investing by buying the dips), all complete dog-shit stocks that no-one on this forum would touch with Greta's barge-pole.

Mind you, she's done no worse than me in the same period, so who's the mug...?

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1 minute ago, Loki said:

Where's a sector rotation when you need one 

As posted a few weeks ago, I rotated out of my biggest goldies into oilies.

So far, so good. Not sure that I can hold until Labor Day before selling out though.

The point of my original post was that every man and his dog is jumping into the market, either on the back of tips on penny shares on anonymous forums, or simply by buying anything that dips.

Surely this can't end well?

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18 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Not sure that I can hold until Labor Day before selling out though.

Why's that?

18 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Surely this can't end well?

For some!

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15 minutes ago, Loki said:

Why's that?

Because my pint already tastes like it is 50% froth. I need to try better to understand market melt-ups, to avoid my own premature capitulation. Based on nothing more than common sense, when I see my own rather daft relative (bless her) piling a 6 figure sum into the market on the back of feelz, I have to assess my own position.

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1 minute ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Because my pint already tastes like it is 50% froth. I need to try better to understand market melt-ups, to avoid my own premature capitulation. Based on nothing more than common sense, when I see my own rather daft relative (bless her) piling a 6 figure sum into the market on the back of feelz, I have to assess my own position.

Very sensible post and ideas.  Nothing wrong with going with your gut on this one I'd say, and staying wary.  I struggle with setting stop losses as they always seem just right to get stopped out just as the share bounces back higher!

6 figures!!! I honestly thought stories like that were apocryphal.

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2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Very sensible post and ideas.  Nothing wrong with going with your gut on this one I'd say, and staying wary.  I struggle with setting stop losses as they always seem just right to get stopped out just as the share bounces back higher!

6 figures!!! I honestly thought stories like that were apocryphal.

I swear not!

I too have 6 figures in the market, built up over time. She banged in that amount over the last 3 months on random shit that dipped (and she is lucky, but not loaded).

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1 minute ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I swear not!

I too have 6 figures in the market, built up over time. She banged in that amount over the last 3 months on random shit that dipped (and she is lucky, but not loaded).

Make sure she knows what a stop loss is and how to set one, and walk away!

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28 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Got one tool at work who loses money in shares all the time it seems. Feels like a very surreal party.

I think a large part of the trading market relies on "have a go" inexperianced punters to fleece, always has been so, even more in the online trading world.

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Somehow we’ve just gone through a full market cycle from record high on Nasdaq Feb 19 to record falls and climbed all the way back to a new record high on Nasdaq today in under 4 months.

clearly we are now into the parabolic blow off top, can it keep levitating til the US election? personally I reckon it will crash by September but from now til then it’s on like Y2K, we have a whole new generation of punters lined up ready to learn their life lesson.

Hedgeye had this guy on this week, worth following:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jessefelder

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5 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Somehow we’ve just gone through a full market cycle from record high on Nasdaq Feb 19 to record falls and climbed all the way back to a new record high on Nasdaq today in under 4 months.

clearly we are now into the parabolic blow off top, can it keep levitating til the US election? personally I reckon it will crash by September but from now til then it’s on like Y2K, we have a whole new generation of punters lined up ready to learn their life lesson.

Hedgeye had this guy on this week, worth following:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jessefelder

Hence my Labor Day comment...

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5 hours ago, Loki said:

I struggle with setting stop losses as they always seem just right to get stopped out just as the share bounces back higher!

6 figures!!! I honestly thought stories like that were apocryphal.

Stop losses only exist to give retail amateur traders a false sense of security. The more people use stop losses the more volatility you get and the higher the likelihood of you stop being blown.

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Posted (edited)

I'm expecting a short term dead cat bounce in pretty much everything driven by the post lockdown euphoria everywhere before the massive fall in money velocity bites. No idea whats going to happen to the SP500 since its essentially a state run casino rather than an actual market.

Edited by goldbug9999
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1 minute ago, goldbug9999 said:

 

Stop losses only exist to give retail amateur traders a false sense of security. The more people use stop losses the more volatility you get and the higher the likelihood of you stop being blown.

I've only used a stop loss once and that was years ago. I was invested in Rambus and the stock had risen rapidly to over $41 in the dot com bubble. Rather than sell it I set a stop loss at $40 and went out for a couple of hours. When I got back I found out that I'd sold all my stock at $34! It turns out they'd had one of the many law suits go against them and the price plummeted. As everyone was trying to sell I didn't get a bid until $34. It had risen back up to $37. So not sure if I lost $7 or $4 on not selling when I thought I should.

It was $23 the week after though - and I had bought at $15 so I still made a profit regardless!

I haven't used one since.

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8 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

 

Stop losses only exist to give retail amateur traders a false sense of security. The more people use stop losses the more volatility you get and the higher the likelihood of you stop being blown.

...that's one of those things that's so obvious after someone's pointed out the mechanics of it. xD

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Posted (edited)

A heavy duty trader was giving a talk and taking out stop losses was all part of the strategy.  Not just to make money per se but as part off the larger chart prediction.  And the insiders even know where they've all been placed!

PS: As a 2000 boy, the talk is a bit déjà vu all over again!

Edited by Harley
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