The rampant inflation preppers thread...

[spygirl]

16 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Maybe.

The UK and EU have however been trying to stoke inflation for ten years now without success; they certainly won't be rushing to choke it off as soon as it appears because they want those debts devalued.

There inevitably will be a time when interest rates have to again rise to decent levels which will, I agree, crash the housing market but there is going to be a huge amount of currency devaluation before we get to that point so you do not want to be holding cash as your home buying fund. You want something that won't be eroded by inflation.

Baked beans are certainly that but they have difficulties related to transportation, storage and resale.

Well ......... in aninept way.

The QE ZIRP was nothing more than bailing out banks n  people whod already created lots of inflation in narrow asset class -housing.

That was always going to cause zilch inflation as that money had been spent and locked into housing.

In fact, by bailing out mortgage holders, the CBs have baked in deflation - high house prices stops people moving for work, so everything just stalls.

All Ive heard over the last 10 years is companies - We cant get people. And the people saying - The cost of housing does not make the move worthwhile.

Ive given up now. My standard response for the roles I used to be asked about is - Starting salary is a 4 br detached / 3. If you are not offering then dont bother advertising.

 

 

 

 

 

[Harley]

A borehole.

Solar, wind, hydro power.

A goat.

Chickens.

An allotment.

An orchard.

Insulation.

Machine spares.

Rainwater harvesting.

Toilet paper.

House renovations.

House extensions for extended family.

Storage to take advantage of deals.

Long term storable consumables.

All training, major dental work, etc asap.

A workbench.

PS:  I added the last because I built a massive one Sunday and people should know.

[spygirl]

14 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Afraid i agree with Frank @TheCountOfNowhere

Rates are on the floor permanently. The only way rates will ever rise again is if there is a currency collapse. And by that i mean hyperinflation, and thats specific to the UK relative to the rest of the West. If the west hyperinflates (or just inflates) all together they'll cut rates more and print more trillions. 

Currency is worth shit, just hold your nose and buy a property. Or Bitcoin.

No.

You cannot stop an economy.

In ~10 years time half the 65+ willl be dead.

Todays 40yo will be 50.

Todays 30yo will be 40.

There's massive demand, as people grow, have kids, buy stuff.

The CB and banks and Pols, in their infinite wisdom, have fuckedup demand.

That will come back.

Houses *have* to transact. 

if they dont, local economies will stall - just look at regional South regions. These economies are falling to bits as the finsec has been destroyed and nothing else has moved in due to high housing costs. 

Southern towns are going to be the next boro - you can see at as the social housing/scum expand and the jobs disappear.

 

 

[Harley]

Hugh Hendry is back, albeit in St Barts!  Listened to my third podcast in a week.  This one from April.

He reckons no inflation.

 

[Frank Hovis]

28 minutes ago, Harley said:

Too noticeable and taxable.  Maybe just the materials in a field somewhere!

Also depends on the currency.  We've already had a HPC as far as most of the world is concerned.  Maybe more to come.

It was a jest but certainly a house is a good idea:

No rent to pay, and no mortgage either if you have enough investments to sell to buy it.

It's somehow invisible to teh governmnet whne it comes to means testing: £50k in the bank - no benefits for you, £5m house - that will be fine.

 

I agree with Spy that a large / expensive house is unnecessary but a small nice house in a reasonable location strikes me as a sensible purchase.

[Frank Hovis]

22 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Well ......... in aninept way.

The QE ZIRP was nothing more than bailing out banks n  people whod already created lots of inflation in narrow asset class -housing.

That was always going to cause zilch inflation as that money had been spent and locked into housing.

In fact, by bailing out mortgage holders, the CBs have baked in deflation - high house prices stops people moving for work, so everything just stalls.

All Ive heard over the last 10 years is companies - We cant get people. And the people saying - The cost of housing does not make the move worthwhile.

Ive given up now. My standard response for the roles I used to be asked about is - Starting salary is a 4 br detached / 3. If you are not offering then dont bother advertising.

 

That's just you and your sector for people based in the north with job offers in London / SE.

It's not generally applicable.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

It was a jest but certainly a house is a good idea:

No rent to pay, and no mortgage either if you have enough investments to sell to buy it.

It's somehow invisible to teh governmnet whne it comes to means testing: £50k in the bank - no benefits for you, £5m house - that will be fine.

I agree with Spy that a large / expensive house is unnecessary but a small nice house in a reasonable location strikes me as a sensible purchase.

Defo a house, but just the one.  Nothing too fancy.  I like the Tiny House videos on Youtube, especially with a bit of land (different rules there though).

Or a commercial unit with a camper outside.

All doable as the first thing to go is kids, unless you can feed them gruel and then put them to work at a very young age.

[spygirl]

14 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

It was a jest but certainly a house is a good idea:

No rent to pay, and no mortgage either if you have enough investments to sell to buy it.

It's somehow invisible to teh governmnet whne it comes to means testing: £50k in the bank - no benefits for you, £5m house - that will be fine.

 

I agree with Spy that a large / expensive house is unnecessary but a small nice house in a reasonable location strikes me as a sensible purchase.

Having a house where a family can avoid needing a second car will save average family ~4k/y.

By that I mean somewhere where the kids can get an all you eat bus ticket in summer and amuse themselves i.e. dont need taxiiing.

I also agree that housing needs to be mean tested for bennise Say discount the first 150k of housing equity.

 

 

[spygirl]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Defo a house, but just the one.  Nothing too fancy.  I like the Tiny House videos on Youtube, especially with a bit of land (different rules there though).

Or a commercial unit with a camper outside.

All doable as the first thing to go is kids, unless you can feed them gruel and then put them to work at a very young age.

Owning a house outright saves you renting, which is ~6-8k/year of spend.

My idea of housing wealth is its a token to swap for another house,not a means of getting rich. I treally wont work like that.

 

 

[spygirl]

16 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

That's just you and your sector for people based in the north with job offers in London / SE.

It's not generally applicable.

No. I travel around inthe London/Sw a lot. Its the same there.

I visit a fair few odds n sods specialist companies - well under 50 people at a site.

The skills mismatch wit hwhats available locally -  unemployed useless finsec middle managers  and OAPs- and what they need - software people - is massive.

Ive told them they either have to pay someone to move their. Or move the company where the people are.

Or, as a compromise, at least move an office to be near a main land trains terminus.

Hopefully the c19 work from home will change peoples thinking.

 

 

[Frank Hovis]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

No. I travel around inthe London/Sw a lot. Its the same there.

I visit a fair few odds n sods specialist companies - well under 50 people at a site.

The skills mismatch wit hwhats available locally -  unemployed useless finsec middle managers  and OAPs- and what they need - software people - is massive.

Ive told them they either have to pay someone to move their. Or move the company where the people are.

Or, as a compromise, at least move an office to be near a main land trains terminus.

Hopefully the c19 work from home will change peoples thinking.

Certainly at my old place half of finance staff and two thirds of IT staff didn't need to be there more than a couple of days a month.

They however mostly liked being there and the more routine the job the more they want to be in the office for the social side.

I think there will be more homeworking but that people will want to be paid more, not less, for working from home now that they have experienced a great lump of it.

I thought homeworkers were really lucky until I agreed to do six months of it.  It turned an interesting and dynamic job into sheer drudgery.

[spunko]

If it results in reduced parity with the EUR and USD then I'm going to just buy loads of stock for my business. Current rates of exchange are mental. $1 = £0.82 or something.

[Don Coglione]

12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Owning a house outright saves you renting, which is ~6-8k/year of spend.

My idea of housing wealth is its a token to swap for another house,not a means of getting rich. I treally wont work like that.

 

 

What can you rent for 500 quid a month in the south, given that we are talking about professional adults, likely with a partner and kids?

[Frank Hovis]

9 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

What can you rent for 500 quid a month in the south, given that we are talking about professional adults, likely with a partner and kids?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-78319882.html

I think the principle stands that paying rent out of after tax income is a bad idea as a long term plan unless you can get a very cheap rental; simply because it means that your monthly costs are always going to be high.

Equally you don't want to cripple yourself with sky high mortgage repayments or buy into a bubble like London and most of the SE so you may wish to relocate before buying.

To Wales.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-78319882.html

I think the principle stands that paying rent out of after tax income is a bad idea as a long term plan unless you can get a very cheap rental; simply because it means that your monthly costs are always going to be high.

Equally you don't want to cripple yourself with sky high mortgage repayments or buy into a bubble like London and most of the SE so you may wish to relocate before buying.

To Wales.

Howz this helping people prep for rampant inflation ?

[Frank Hovis]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Howz this helping people prep for rampant inflation ?

I wondered what you could get for £500 a month in the SE.

I wasn't recommending anyone rent it.

[logana]

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/cabdury-wispa-gold-double-decker-size-obesity-shrinkflation-a9623886.html

 

shrink-flation...I am sure there was some shrinking of their bars not long ago. Soon there will be celebration size chocolates on the shelves

 

[One percent]

16 minutes ago, logana said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/cabdury-wispa-gold-double-decker-size-obesity-shrinkflation-a9623886.html

 

shrink-flation...I am sure there was some shrinking of their bars not long ago. Soon there will be celebration size chocolates on the shelves

 

This has been going on for years. They are getting to be fun sized now. 
 

mind Cadbury is not what it was. I avoid 

[stop_the_craziness]

Apparently this is Cadbury kindly playing their part in the war on obesity.  They are making sure that each bar is now under 200 calories so that when you scoff the entire 4-pack in one sitting you have only spunked 800 calories instead of 1,000 on pointless, greasy sub-standard chocolate trading on a previously good brand name.

[Inigo]

On 09/06/2020 at 08:51, Harley said:

A borehole.

Solar, wind, hydro power.

A goat.

Chickens.

An allotment.

An orchard.

Insulation.

Machine spares.

Rainwater harvesting.

Toilet paper.

House renovations.

House extensions for extended family.

Storage to take advantage of deals.

Long term storable consumables.

All training, major dental work, etc asap.

A workbench.

PS:  I added the last because I built a massive one Sunday and people should know.

Good list.

Not all of these are possible for everyone, but I've had a go.

Borehole, wind, hydro power, I don't have the right house/land and have committed too much to move now.  Also, can't afford a country estate.  Friends had bought an old water mill in France.  If they could have got the old hydro stuff under the house working they said it would have generated enough cash to pay their mortgage each month.  But finding parts/a competent engineer proved too difficult.

Goat.  Wife threatened to get a goat a few years ago.  I live in fear of arriving home to be met by one.

Chickens.  Have had chickens a few times over the years, lovely eggs, but my wife's reluctance to lock them up at night (she thought it was mean to them) meant they were all eaten, eventually, by the local fox.  Bizarrely, only when it snowed.  Also found a post mortem stash of eggs - there were about 100 eggs all hidden under a bush.  By the time we found them, they were really rather rotten.

Allotment.  I was evicted from my allotment. Dug over the whole plot and planted potatoes.  Never visited again for three months, by which time the nettles were at head height.  The tomatoes in gro-bags, slightly round the corner rarely get watered.  For vegetables to have a fighting chance of survival in our garden, they have to be within 3m of the back door.  Current self-sufficiency drive this year has generated 1 radish, one meal's worth of new potatoes, a handful of peas and a few strawberries.  I have come to the conclusion that if I have to rely on what I grow in the garden I will starve.

I only have two apple trees left, a bramley and an old eater, of some description.  Have attempted to make cider in the past, but it was really hard work chopping up apples and trying to squeeze the fuckers in the cider press.  Currently the neighbours have carte blanche to help themselves to apples come autumn.

Insulation, when we built our extension, I had a difficult conversation with the builder.  He commented that they would add enough insulation to match building regs and it was loads more than the old days.  I pointed out that this was the legal minimum and added loads more.  Went for triple glazed windows as well.  My thinking was that I have income now and can afford to pay for the insulation, in a few years time I may not have the income and might struggle to pay my fuel bill.

Machine spares.  I'm struggling to know what will fail in the future.  I don't know if buying a replacement now, that replacement may be degrading at the same rate as the item in use while in storage.

Rainwater harvesting.  Gutted that I didn't think of this before I just put the patio in, but I already had 12 grab lorries of soil taken away.  I couldn't really stretch to another few to put some underground tanks in.  Shame.

Can't move for bloody toilet paper.  Wife's nursery shut down, but she didn't cancle the weekly delivery of 45 toilet rolls.

House renovation/extension.  House now big enough to (at a squeeze) fit in teenage kids future partners (but probably not their kids.)

Storage.  Pantry built into new extension/kitchen.  Family on board with long term storage and rotating stock.

Training/dental work.  Had my eyes lasered during the last financial crisis.  Unfortunately, I have now aged to the point where I require reading glasses anyway.  Teeth fixed as much as possible, but the temporary fix for wife's broken tooth only lasted a day.  Have to work on this one, maybe get some better tools than a skewer.

Workbench - yes, just have to clear all the junk off it to find a place to work.

 

[wherebee]

So - we now own our own house outright.  No mortgage.

That means, looking at comparable houses in the area, we are saving 1000 AUD a week, or 52 grand a year.  

In pre-tax income terms that means I'd have to earn 80k to stand still on accomodation, before I even think about living expenses.  Now, there are upkeep and other costs that I have as a homeowner - and I can use that term for the first time in my life as I own the home, not a bank - but even if we say I will spend 20k a year on upkeep, I am still in the green.

Now, in times of inflation the house can go up or down in value, but my costs for the house remain steady, only the upkeep costs can go up.  That's why in the last six months I've had new heating put in, new insulation, new plumbing - because I don't see that stuff getting cheaper in the future.

Other inflation prepping is buying clothes too big for the kids - staples like jeans and underwear - when on discount now.  Buying lightbulbs, hardware, tools, that will not degrade if stored in a cupboard for ten years.  I don't think you can prep food against inflation to a huge extent without having a lot of land - I have spam and corned beef which will run 5 years out, but most other stuff goes off in 1-2 years.  Prepping for the pandemic was to get over the 'hump' of shortages.

It's a tough one.  I do think things like slow cookers, which can make a weeks worth of food from ingredients that cost the same as a days normal cooking, are a good investment. 

[nirvana]

On 09/06/2020 at 09:51, Harley said:

A goat.

that's a bad idea...they eat everything, they'll try and eat your solar panels given half the chance....

And jumping, folk don't realise how high the fuckers can jump.....even the little bastards can clear a 6 foot fence 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

52 grand a year

christ I didn't know they had castles in Australia???

[nirvana]

Inflation is irrelevant when it costs you fuck all to live in the countryside 

[wherebee]

56 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

christ I didn't know they had castles in Australia???

no, the rental market is just fucked because every man and his dog bought a BTL, massively over leveraged, and so charges huge rent, and the younger generation for some reason pays up in order to live near the bright lights rather than the country areas they were born in.

The pandemic has, I think, fucked that bubble - several younger couples I know have talked about realising that paying 2 grand a month rent for a shitty one bedroom apartment is galling when you can't go out your front door on pain of fines.