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6 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Does anyone still believe this thing spreads easily outdoors? 

Yes I think many people in the UK still believe this.

From my small sample size I know several young men who just don't leave the house since this happened. To reduce their 'risk'.

Two of my friends have mentioned separately in recent weeks (the two I mentioned in the BLM thread) that they're concerned that the lockdown is being lifted 'too quickly'.

My fat doctor friend posted a warning on Facebook that people are getting too complacent, basically reminding folk to be scared.

Meanwhile none of us know anyone who has died or been made seriously ill by this.

Edited by JoeDavola
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52 minutes ago, arbitrage said:

Look at this photo taken yesterday. It's from a tennis tournament in Belgrade. There's no social distancing in Sebia! You can also watch this tournament live on Eurosport this evening. I found it uplifting to see people sitting in close proximity to each other

1219601430.jpg

Are you sure they're not fake, like the crowd noise at the German football? 

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1 hour ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Does anyone still believe this thing spreads easily outdoors? 

 

From an infected person close to you that coughs in your face or shakes your hand or passes you something and you then touch your mouth, yes, you will be as easily infected as a healthy person would be at any time of year.

Otherwise, transmission in summer via indirect spread from surfaces is unlikely IMO.

The gradual reduction in indirect spread from surfaces as summer begins reduces the number of infected people and so i) you are less likely to meet an infected person and as a result of fewer nfected people ii) the number of infected surfaces are also reduced. As summer progresses transmission therefore declines exponentially and there is less and less chance of anyone becoming infected.

As winter arrives and the virus starts to persist on surfaces for longer the suppression of transmission is reversed until, in the middle of winter, you are highly likely to encounter an infected person or surface.

Ultimately, the development of herd immunity breaks the level of infection, which reduces transmission.

It all depends how protracted we make reaching herd immunity as to how likely it is that anyone will become infected.

 

Edited by Hopeful
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Interesting that it's a pariah state like Serbia that's doing this. Hungary (another pariah state in the eyes of the globalists) has had a similarly mild lockdown.

(I once read a book about a chap who cycled across eastern Europe - he wrote that Serbia was the most beautiful and friendly of all the places he visited).

Edited by Austin Allegro
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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

So does it smell like the scent of someone's aftershave/perfume does?

 

Yes, the consequences of the lockdown aline fairly well with the aims of Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030

It must just be a coincidence, I guess

Edited by arbitrage
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1 hour ago, Hopeful said:

 

From an infected person close to you that coughs in your face or shakes your hand or passes you something and you then touch your mouth, yes, you will be as easily infected as a healthy person would be at any time of year.

Otherwise, transmission in summer via indirect spread from surfaces is unlikely IMO.

The gradual reduction in indirect spread from surfaces as summer begins reduces the number of infected people and so i) you are less likely to meet an infected person and as a result of fewer nfected people ii) the number of infected surfaces are also reduced. As summer progresses transmission therefore declines exponentially and there is less and less chance of anyone becoming infected.

As winter arrives and the virus starts to persist on surfaces for longer the suppression of transmission is reversed until, in the middle of winter, you are highly likely to encounter an infected person or surface.

Ultimately, the development of herd immunity breaks the level of infection, which reduces transmission.

It all depends how protracted we make reaching herd immunity as to how likely it is that anyone will become infected.

 

Well yeah, that's what I meant but in more detail. If none of those tennis spectators shake hands, cough in each other's faces or kiss/cuddle, the risk is fairly low IMO. Plus, they'll all be out in the sun getting some Vitamin D and improving their immunity.

I would go further - I'm of the opinion that we should be actively encouraging the young to engage in supposedly risky behaviour, so that most of them catch it right now, in summer. Festivals, sports events, demos, the lot. No oldies allowed. With the caveat that they need to keep away from their elders as far as is possible. If there aren't enough infections now, this is going to be back with a vengeance in November/December

 

 

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9 hours ago, Austin Allegro said:

(I once read a book about a chap who cycled across eastern Europe - he wrote that Serbia was the most beautiful and friendly of all the places he visited).

Ive been to Serbia a few times over the decades for work. Well, Belgrade mostly. Im not sure Id agree with either of those points.

Friendly so long as you nod along politely and dont say a fucking word when they get on to politics.

Hotels there used to be infamous for their bedbugs. Sort of place you want to burn everything youve taken with you, a bit like the disinfection scene from one of those US prison dramas.

Edited by Melchett
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8 hours ago, Melchett said:

Ive been to Serbia a few times over the decades for work. Well, Belgrade mostly. Im not sure Id agree with either of those points.

Friendly so long as you nod along politely and dont say a fucking word when they get on to politics.

Hotels there used to be infamous for their bedbugs. Sort of place you want to burn everything youve taken with you, a bit like the disinfection scene from one of those US prison dramas.

Not my experience of visiting Belgrade last year. I loved the place.  Friendly locals, cheap food and drink and a superb (bug-free) airbnb whole apartment just off Skardalja for £30pn (see below). Architecture perhaps a bit more communist brutalist than other EE capitals but still plenty to admire, esp down by the rivers.

986eab8e-9a2a-4a04-9360-633f63c00c5b.jpg

Edited by Turned Out Nice Again
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44 minutes ago, Turned Out Nice Again said:

Not my experience of visiting Belgrade last year. I loved the place.  Friendly locals, cheap food and drink and a superb (bug-free) airbnb whole apartment just off Skardalja for £30pn (see below). Architecture perhaps a bit more communist brutalist than other EE capitals but still plenty to admire, esp down by the rivers.

986eab8e-9a2a-4a04-9360-633f63c00c5b.jpg

I haven’t been for a few years.

Im willing to accept it could improve. That said, as you say, it was a place where the brutalist modern concrete and glass was an improvement over the brutal communist concrete.

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18 hours ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Well yeah, that's what I meant but in more detail. If none of those tennis spectators shake hands, cough in each other's faces or kiss/cuddle, the risk is fairly low IMO. Plus, they'll all be out in the sun getting some Vitamin D and improving their immunity.

I would go further - I'm of the opinion that we should be actively encouraging the young to engage in supposedly risky behaviour, so that most of them catch it right now, in summer. Festivals, sports events, demos, the lot. No oldies allowed. With the caveat that they need to keep away from their elders as far as is possible. If there aren't enough infections now, this is going to be back with a vengeance in November/December

 

 

 

Not enough reps for the BiB!

People need to accept that the only way out of this (I have doubts about a vaccine being ready in time) is for a big chunk of the population to get infected. We can drag it out, along with the extra cost (financial and peoples well being) or try to get it over as quickly as we can (without the political suicide of NHS being overwhelmed).

It may well the case that a big chunk of the most vulnerable in care homes have already had it or died.

I still only know of 3 cases.

1 - died from it but did not know them well enough to know of underlying health issues, they were in 70's

2 - in very poor health and elderly but survived it. Only to die later - the Drs said not CV but I suspect related

3 - Terminal cancer in care home. Suspected CV. Tested and came back neg. Died shortly after, I suspect false negative as other residents had tested positive.

It's possible that all 3 of the above would have been dead by the end of the year anyway, one of them only had weeks left.

If I get time later I'll see if I can find some figures to put some context on how many people over 70/80 have died and what percentage that is of the over 70'/80's.

I've not been keeping up with the forum much so this may have already been covered elsewhere.

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20 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Didn't Serbia and Croatia close their borders early and have hence been mostly unaffected? I think Croatia has had not people infected.

Here you go

Croatia   https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/hr

Serbia   https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/rs

 

Neither are showing the disease affecting their populations at the levels we are experiencing. So I guess a number of factors are in their favour. Low population density probably being the most important. I guess not many Serbians and Croatians need to go skiing in Italy. 

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4 hours ago, Craig said:

Agreed on the vaccine not being ready by the winter.

Would imagine Pharma are concentrating their efforts on disease management medication, rather than a cure/prevention...

Like Xena we have Many Skills.

Seriously, my company is doing both, because the people who do one are not the people who do the other.

Treatment way more on the cards than vaccine, always has been.

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23 hours ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

 If there aren't enough infections now, this is going to be back with a vengeance in November/December

At this point, if it doesn't come back for a second wave, we'll know the whole thing has been a load of horseshit from the start.

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On 14/06/2020 at 16:50, arbitrage said:

Look at this photo taken yesterday. It's from a tennis tournament in Belgrade. There's no social distancing in Sebia! You can also watch this tournament live on Eurosport this evening. I found it uplifting to see people sitting in close proximity to each other

1219601430.jpg

I was sure that Pete Burns had died several years ago.

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19 minutes ago, eight said:

 

It worries me how many people have a lot invested in a deadlier second wave.

If you have invested in the handwash and mask bubble now you are fucked. Like selling purple flares in 1979.

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