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When will the big house price falls arrive?


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I am really just interested in those that think the property market is on the verge of tanking, I know some of you still don't think it will, me personally I think it will and it's the first time in several years I am this certain that it will, before I thought the government had enough gimmicks to keep the plates spinning for a few more years.

What trigger are you now waiting for now, do you think the ending of furlough, unemployment rising or a massive credit crunch or even something else, maybe you think it's happening right now?

Me personally I think it's already slowly happening right now  with the end of furlough being the start of the big negative numbers coming in

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There really are some cunts making out like bandits.

Punchable. "We've worked hard. We deserve this money". Oh have you? You've worked hard sitting in your house while it appreciates many 100s of percent and the next generation is repeatedly s

Relax. You have just renewed your lease for 12 months. You have nothing to worry about. You have a roof over your head. When the right place comes up at the right price(which it eventually will)

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29 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I am really just interested in those that think the property market is on the verge of tanking, I know some of you still don't think it will, me personally I think it will and it's the first time in several years I am this certain that it will, before I thought the government had enough gimmicks to keep the plates spinning for a few more years.

What trigger are you now waiting for now, do you think the ending of furlough, unemployment rising or a massive credit crunch or even something else, maybe you think it's happening right now?

Me personally I think it's already slowly happening right now  with the end of furlough being the start of the big negative numbers coming in

I hope so, although I also see this massive money creation/ printing going on that surely should debase the currency whilst strengthen real assets like houses.  

I think horse prices will likely stall but maybe like you say with reality starting to hit there may be distressed sellers or defaults coming which may see some kind of drops across the board.

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Escape to the country is starting up filming again soon

Property prices could easily hold up or increase in rural areas in the short-term as people flee flu pandemic cities and work from home. Obviously, once city prices crash this will ripple out, but by that time, all the rural houses will be owend for the forseeable by the early adopters, unless prices rocket so much that even this fleeing involves taking on stupid debt so that that when the recession hits these people are as destitute as they should be - I can but wish for the latter.

Flight to the counry by the city whizz kids will then mean the financial sector will have it all, the rural idyll and the money, literally their cake and scoffing it.

I'll probably rent my rural idyll forever, and then crawl under a hedge to die.

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23 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

I'll probably rent my rural idyll forever, and then crawl under a hedge to die.

And why not?

A long term secure rental on reasonably low rent was my ideal.

Whilst I was always going to come back to Cornwall at some point I lived in such a place for six years and had no interest in buying anywhere as it suited me down to the ground.

Had I stayed in that city I would still be living there.

Anyway that's a diversion. I think falls will start in twelve to eighteen months which could be massive at the top end but maybe limited to 15 - 20% at the level of basic housing.

I am taking that from the pre-CV level and hoping the hikes of the last fortnight are a blip.

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1 minute ago, Frank Hovis said:

And why not?

A long term secure rental on reasonably low rent was my ideal.

Whilst I was always going to come back to Cornwall at some point I lived in such a place for six years and had no interest in buying anywhere as it suited me down to the ground.

Had I stayed in that city I would still be living there.

Anyway that's a diversion. I think falls will start in twelve to eighteen months which could be massive at the top end but maybe limited to 15 - 20% at the level of basic housing.

I am taking that from the pre-CV level and hoping the hikes of the last fortnight are a blip.

 

Renting is a very good option, if secure and low. Would have bought a sensibly priced house but quite happy I was priced-out of making the decision of a house purchase when prices were silly.

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4 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

 

Renting is a very good option, if secure and low. Would have bought a sensibly priced house but quite happy I was priced-out of making the decision of a house purchase when prices were silly.

Speaking of secure rental, did you ever work out if you are an Assured Tenant (assuming you live in England)? From your description it sounded like you had lived in your current place for a long time so possibly pre-AST days and might have more legal rights.

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27 minutes ago, Darude said:

Speaking of secure rental, did you ever work out if you are an Assured Tenant (assuming you live in England)? From your description it sounded like you had lived in your current place for a long time so possibly pre-AST days and might have more legal rights.

25 years, signed some form of rental on renting it, can't remember what it said. Never seen  a contract since. Deposit £216, doubt it's in a scheme. Only problem will happen when the landlord dies (probably within the next 20 years) and if the estate is sold and the new owner is a fuckwit. But by then the property may be unsuitable for me due to my infirmity, but I expect I could be be dead by 70 anyway due to covid19,  so within 15 years. Problem will come if i need to move as I'd see a doubling in rent as there are few properties as primitive as mine, which is what keeps it cheap, and I'd probably also need a propety that wasn't so primitive as I age.

Few people would cope with renting my rental for so long. It looks idyllic (and is) but most would not live with the 'drawbacks' so tenant turnover would be high (but that wouldn't bother the landlord) - you have to know how to control damp, not care about no heating, be happy with a constant battle with vermin and not be materialistic as there is no space for materials. You'd have to be someone like me to rent it long term xD Not sure why the GF likes it.

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1 hour ago, Hopeful said:

Property prices could easily hold up or increase in rural areas in the short-term as people flee flu pandemic cities and work from home.

That's the line the EA gave me on Saturday.   London workers told to work at home long-term looking for good family houses in the home counties.

Then again, I also had the usual lines, "property always go up", "prices double every 10 years", "got a queue of buyers looking for a house like this", "good mortgage availability" etc. After 15 years on HPC, my bullshit detector was firing on all cylinders.

My best guess was a £525K valuation, even though similar houses just went SSTC at £540K and £550K.  The EA convinced the other executor that £570K was achievable so they went for that.  I'd rather just get rid at a lower price to a no-chain buyer, as any extra just gets split four ways (two executors, inheritance tax and agent fees).

The worst state for me to be in is maintaining a house 50 miles away as winter approaches. 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I am really just interested in those that think the property market is on the verge of tanking, I know some of you still don't think it will, me personally I think it will and it's the first time in several years I am this certain that it will, before I thought the government had enough gimmicks to keep the plates spinning for a few more years.

What trigger are you now waiting for now, do you think the ending of furlough, unemployment rising or a massive credit crunch or even something else, maybe you think it's happening right now?

Me personally I think it's already slowly happening right now  with the end of furlough being the start of the big negative numbers coming in

I doubt if there will be large nominal GBP falls. Probably massive falls when measured in other currencies though.

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Does a market even extist at the moment. Looked at 3 postcodes i have lived at and no sold prices after March 13. I know there is always a LR lag.

2 For sale ( priced over a million) on my road just sitting there.  A similar house  was on market for  a couple of weeks and then withdrawn at start of lockdown.

Only a brave or stupid person would buy at the moment.

 

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

I am taking that from the pre-CV level and hoping the hikes of the last fortnight are a blip.

That`s just to massage the house price index`s 

I seen the exact same happen at xmas price go up all go SSC then back on at the original price in Jan

You can now see the price history like the old days ,Property Bee is back in a different dress 

https://app.patma.co.uk/profile/signup/free?s=be

You don`t need an account just down load the app and it will work like the old PB used to

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2 hours ago, Hopeful said:

Escape to the country is starting up filming again soon

Property prices could easily hold up or increase in rural areas in the short-term as people flee flu pandemic cities and work from home. Obviously, once city prices crash this will ripple out, but by that time, all the rural houses will be owend for the forseeable by the early adopters, unless prices rocket so much that even this fleeing involves taking on stupid debt so that that when the recession hits these people are as destitute as they should be - I can but wish for the latter.

Flight to the counry by the city whizz kids will then mean the financial sector will have it all, the rural idyll and the money, literally their cake and scoffing it.

I'll probably rent my rural idyll forever, and then crawl under a hedge to die.

I can think of a dozen reasons why I would prefer renting if it was something more like the German rental system of the 1980/90', but be still OK now. But we are light years away from what I would find acceptable, but who knows

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49 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I can think of a dozen reasons why I would prefer renting if it was something more like the German rental system of the 1980/90', but be still OK now. But we are light years away from what I would find acceptable, but who knows

Security of tenure is a key issue. Why would anyone invest in an area or property if you could be told to move on in 2 months time.

Thats what the kids should be upset about. I'm annoyed enough about it and it doesn't personally effect me (well it does)

Both my kids late teens and I can't see them owning. I won't inherit anything to pass on to them and the only thing I have is my house. Btw  both my parents in their 90s with huge care costs.

 

 

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1 hour ago, chicker said:

 

Only a brave or stupid person would buy at the moment.

 

People said that to me several years ago, it'd have to be a 30% plus drop to get back to my purchase price.

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2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

I think the last 15 years is all the proof needed that there is seemingly endless supply of them in this country

Not really. Its clear the lib lab con will do everything to prop up prices or even rise prices. WHY sit on the sidelines and watch YOUR currency trashed to zero. That is their preferred outcome and its been happening since 2009. There's not sign of it ending. Soon the banks will be paying the BTL hoarders with negative rates. That'll be a hard pill to swallow if you don't have skin in the game (up to your eyeballs in debt). 

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I think we won't have a very clear picture until October, which is when most of the funny-money schemes end and the recession will be in full swing.

I am already seeing quite large drops (via Patma) in East Anglia - 15-20% down from pre-Lockdown prices (although some have actually put their prices UP by about 10% on those xD so who knows).

However, I think we have to be aware of Black Swans/Unknown Unknowns. I have a nasty feeling the government, or possibly all the major governments, are going to do some sort of reset to keep the whole thing going, and/or we may see some sort of nationalisation of housing/mortgages which keeps people in their homes but effectively kills the market even for cash buyers.

I am OK where I am but would like to move somewhere a bit closer to my lady-friend, so my plan at present is to stockpile part cash/ part short term easily liquifiable investments for a war chest ready to be mobilised this time next year. In the meantime I'm watching Rightmove and Patma very closely.

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Already seeing falls, I assume you mean bigger fails. The prime central London market will tank first due to hemorrhaging of foreign buyers leaving quickly and wanting to get rid of their illiquid assets without too much of a hit. IMO this will drive the market down very quickly as reality spreads out to the shires.

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/jun/29/markets-nervous-covid-19-cases-news-uk-mortgages-facebook-shares-business-live

 

I thought according to some  now that C-19 is easing off buyers on the sidelines were rushing to the estate agents and buying property out of the cities and in rural locations, well mortgage approvals does not tally with that view, they are as close to a dead market that is possible

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1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/jun/29/markets-nervous-covid-19-cases-news-uk-mortgages-facebook-shares-business-live

 

I thought according to some  now that C-19 is easing off buyers on the sidelines were rushing to the estate agents and buying property out of the cities and in rural locations, well mortgage approvals does not tally with that view, they are as close to a dead market that is possible

That`s what the EA`s thought as well xD

There`s one around my way that has put the prices up on everything obviously ready for the rush 

Just an anecdotal my brother in law had an inherited house SSTC just before Christmas ,the buyer come back last week with a offer of 10% less ,can`t get finance for the original amount ,just trying it on or legit i have not got a clue 

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1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

That`s what the EA`s thought as well xD

There`s one around my way that has put the prices up on everything obviously ready for the rush 

Just an anecdotal my brother in law had an inherited house SSTC just before Christmas ,the buyer come back last week with a offer of 10% less ,can`t get finance for the original amount ,just trying it on or legit i have not got a clue 

9,300 approvals for the month, just does not look right, that number should be for a few days this time of the year. When furlough ends and everyone is back at work and the job losses are finally announced, then we will see meltdown in the house market. The next time in the cycle when we see people buying houses will be when you hear them say "F*** me that's cheap" and that will be because they are really cheap, not because they are cheaper than the houses that sold for silly money before,  but cheap is in they have not been able to get buyers in years and price to at least get something

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