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How's the excess mortality looking?


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If there have been recent posts on this, I've missed them.

How many UK dead this year compared to the 5 /10 year average?

Is there a site for those numbers?

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t_v 🏅
5 minutes ago, jm51 said:

If there have been recent posts on this, I've missed them.

How many UK dead this year compared to the 5 /10 year average?

Is there a site for those numbers?

The numbers released today show that we are back in line with the weekly 5y average (numbers up until 19/06).

In total since mid-March there have been ~65K excess deaths compared to the 5y average (again for numbers up until 19/06).

The ONS weekly data are here.

Edited by t_v 🏅
Typo and link
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t_v 🏅
6 minutes ago, eta-carinae said:

Screenshot_2020-06-30-14-09-07-688_com.android.chrome.jpg

These are quite stale, the site below shows it better but haven't yet updated with today's figures, expect the line to match the 5 previous years for week 25.

image.thumb.png.4cf8852a17c75d3eb2bc550dcca388d5.png

Edited by t_v 🏅
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The XYY Man
28 minutes ago, MrPin said:

It's not obvious to me as I am not in the funeral business.

You sure about that Nosferatu...?

I pretty convinced that you're at least a stakeholder...

 

XYY

Edited by The XYY Man
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MrPin
2 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

You sure about that Nosferatu...?

I pretty convinced that you're a least a stakeholder...

 

XYY

Do you think Frank could be Accountant Van Helsing?:(

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https://deathstats.org/

Probably deaths brought forward a few months / weeks mainly of people who were dying anyway. 

Not great but hardly a reason to completely fuck up the country and kill loads of other people due to the NHS ignoring almost everything for three months. 

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Long time lurking
33 minutes ago, jm51 said:

65k excess deaths is about 4 flu seasons.

Doesn't seem that bad considering that it's a new virus.  

 

I suspect a good percentage of the 65k were due to not having access to medical treatment for 3 months 

In fact i`m sure they were reporting excess non covid deaths at one point and they were running at 2-3k per week at one point

Edited by Long time lurking
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The XYY Man
8 minutes ago, MrPin said:

Do you think Frank could be Accountant Van Helsing?:(

Frank could be anything - as long as it's entered correctly in the ledger...

 

XYY

@Frank Hovis

Edited by The XYY Man
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nirvana

ahh, this is good timing cos I'm just looking at this farce of a virus that hardly killed anyone :wanker:

Right so in Germany it only got 0.01% of the population

and in the UK, where they reported choking on a sherbert flake as dying of CV it managed to kill a massive 0.06%

Wey hey we beat the Germans again by a large majority :Old:

Fucking farce I'm never watching the news again, we're all brainwashed muppets, running scared cos the government and it's media shills likes to control your lives, shameful....

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Frank Hovis
8 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

Frank could be anything - as long as it's entered correctly in the ledger...

 

XYY

@Frank Hovis

They walk amongst us.

The biggest aim of the vampyr is to convince us that they don't exist.

3do.gif

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The XYY Man
3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

The biggest aim of the vampyr is to convince us that they don't exist.

 

 

The Twins of Evil existed.

And so does the fatty-on that I get whenever I think about them...

 

maxresdefault.jpg

 

XYY

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onlyme
19 minutes ago, ccc said:

https://deathstats.org/

Probably deaths brought forward a few months / weeks mainly of people who were dying anyway. 

Not great but hardly a reason to completely fuck up the country and kill loads of other people due to the NHS ignoring almost everything for three months. 

Could be but there was a study that came up with a figure of average 10 year reduction in lifetime across the board, adjusted for co-morbidities etc.

That is a heck of a long way out to be wrong when specifically looking to measure that factor.

 

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Long time lurking

 

28 minutes ago, onlyme said:

That is a heck of a long way out to be wrong when specifically looking to measure that factor.

Mr 500k study ?

Edited by Long time lurking
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snaga

if as predicted by many CV mostly pulled deaths forward, we may see it go below average for a few months, until the next wave or indirect deaths from heart disease/cancer etc start making a statistical difference.

 

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snaga
41 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I suspect a good percentage of the 65k were due to not having access to medical treatment for 3 months 

In fact i`m sure they were reporting excess non covid deaths at one point and they were running at 2-3k per week at one point

lower cancer survival rates are baked in now, up to 30K fewer cancer diagnosis per week was being quoted. These patients will present at some point at a later stage, just when the NHS is trying to catch-up with it's existing backlog of known cases. A double hit to survival rates for at least a year I think, and that's assuming no 2nd wave lockdown.

Edited by snaga
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Wight Flight

We have had the lowest total mortality rates down here over the period for the last 5 years.

Lots of bankrupt businesses and suicidal young people though.

(I would laugh if one of the bankrupt businesses was the local undertaker)

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Long time lurking
2 hours ago, snaga said:

lower cancer survival rates are baked in now, up to 30K fewer cancer diagnosis per week was being quoted. These patients will present at some point at a later stage, just when the NHS is trying to catch-up with it's existing backlog of known cases. A double hit to survival rates for at least a year I think, and that's assuming no 2nd wave lockdown.

Tells you all you need to know

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snaga
32 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Tells you all you need to know

all very well testing, but where are they going to get treated?

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13 minutes ago, snaga said:

all very well testing, but where are they going to get treated?

Treated ? O.o

Just chuck them in a care home for a few weeks. Sorted !! Problem removed. :Old:

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snaga
Just now, ccc said:

Treated ? O.o

Just chuck them in a care home for a few weeks. Sorted !! Problem removed. :Old:

seriously, it's likely to be care hostels for those with <50% survival chance if treated? need to prioritise those most likely to survive.

There's only so many cancer surgeons and radiologists, no matter how many beds they throw at the problem.

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9 minutes ago, snaga said:

seriously, it's likely to be care hostels for those with <50% survival chance if treated? need to prioritise those most likely to survive.

There's only so many cancer surgeons and radiologists, no matter how many beds they throw at the problem.

The two i heard of during lockdown through pals were just sent home to die. 

Now I'm not overly against that idea in general. Must be better than sitting in some hospital or hospice. 

But they didn't have any choice.

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