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My understanding is that when NHS treatment costs are considered, the quantitive measure used is years/months of quality life vs cost.

On the same basis should the covid19 death figures not be translated into years of life lost. Call it covid19 life-years lost.
A comparison can then be made with lockdown life-years lost.

The roughest of calculation done could assume everyone would otherwise live to 95 so someone losing their life to covid19 at 80 will lose 15 years. A child losing their life because of lockdown at 15 will lose 80 years.

The 5 Kent suicides in this article can then be recorded as 400 life-years lost due to lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jul/13/deaths-special-needs-children-kent-raise-concerns-over-school-closures

The 5 Kent suicides are equivalent to the covid19 deaths of 27 old folk at age 80 or the covid19 deaths of 80 old folk at age 90.

Given the age distribution of covid19 attributed deaths, are we already at the point where lockdown life years lost exceeds covid19 life years lost?

Scientific enough for Bojo to follow?

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9 minutes ago, BWW said:

My understanding is that when NHS treatment costs are considered, the quantitive measure used is years/months of quality life vs cost.

On the same basis should the covid19 death figures not be translated into years of life lost. Call it covid19 life-years lost.
A comparison can then be made with lockdown life-years lost.

The roughest of calculation done could assume everyone would otherwise live to 95 so someone losing their life to covid19 at 80 will lose 15 years. A child losing their life because of lockdown at 15 will lose 80 years.

The 5 Kent suicides in this article can then be recorded as 400 life-years lost due to lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jul/13/deaths-special-needs-children-kent-raise-concerns-over-school-closures

The 5 Kent suicides are equivalent to the covid19 deaths of 27 old folk at age 80 or the covid19 deaths of 80 old folk at age 90.

Given the age distribution of covid19 attributed deaths, are we already at the point where lockdown life years lost exceeds covid19 life years lost?

Scientific enough for Bojo to follow?

Several of us on here have been making this point since near the start.

But it merits repetition, so thanks for starting a thread dedicated to it.

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Alas.

I think it will take years for this to be stated and accepted.

Rounds of statistics..waiting for more figures..requiring enquires.

I dont know how impartial the ONS is either.

Multiple services still on hold for many with chronic conditions and new presentations of possible life threatening issues.

We should have and should now target resources on such people.

Death by COVID association. Another issue alive and well that will be addressed posthumously.

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11 hours ago, BWW said:

My understanding is that when NHS treatment costs are considered, the quantitive measure used is years/months of quality life vs cost.

On the same basis should the covid19 death figures not be translated into years of life lost. Call it covid19 life-years lost.
A comparison can then be made with lockdown life-years lost.

The roughest of calculation done could assume everyone would otherwise live to 95 so someone losing their life to covid19 at 80 will lose 15 years. A child losing their life because of lockdown at 15 will lose 80 years.

The 5 Kent suicides in this article can then be recorded as 400 life-years lost due to lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jul/13/deaths-special-needs-children-kent-raise-concerns-over-school-closures

The 5 Kent suicides are equivalent to the covid19 deaths of 27 old folk at age 80 or the covid19 deaths of 80 old folk at age 90.

Given the age distribution of covid19 attributed deaths, are we already at the point where lockdown life years lost exceeds covid19 life years lost?

Scientific enough for Bojo to follow?

But those kids were all mongs, spazzes, or twitchers.  Not exactly higher end of good members of society.  It's actually an overall benefit that they took their own lives, being realistic, as now they won't breed even more mongs, spazzes, or twitchers with which to drain the state of resources.

 

*Sits back and prepares to be shouted at.*

 

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6 hours ago, wherebee said:

But those kids were all mongs, spazzes, or twitchers.  Not exactly higher end of good members of society.  It's actually an overall benefit that they took their own lives, being realistic, as now they won't breed even more mongs, spazzes, or twitchers with which to drain the state of resources.

 

*Sits back and prepares to be shouted at.*

 

 

/ Spygirl

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8 hours ago, wherebee said:

But those kids were all mongs, spazzes, or twitchers.  Not exactly higher end of good members of society.  It's actually an overall benefit that they took their own lives, being realistic, as now they won't breed even more mongs, spazzes, or twitchers with which to drain the state of resources.

 

*Sits back and prepares to be shouted at.*

 

It's going to turn into a death if they aren't 100% normal or when they reach a certain age thread!

Reminded me of Edward G Robinson's euthanasia scene in Soylent Green. (It was the last scene he ever filmed, he died of cancer 12 days after shooting finished).

 

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4 hours ago, NewryH said:

But how do you define 'because of lockdown'?

How many died in the same period last year?  How many would have died in another couple of years anyway - so wouldn't have made it to 95?

Well 95 / a fixed age was just for making the roughest first guess. Of course the best data would come from an expected no of remaining years on each death certificate.

Because of lockdown means wouldn't have happened without lockdown. None of these stats are or can ever be exact.

 

23 hours ago, Melchett said:

Several of us on here have been making this point since near the start.

But it merits repetition, so thanks for starting a thread dedicated to it.

 

It wasn't just repeating the idea that more will die because of lockdown than because of covid but asking the question what measure can be defined [roughly] that the media could report instead of a death count.

Media is looking for a sensationalist headline and 5 kids dead with ADHD/ASD [likely caused by lockdown] is for them equivalent to 5 old folk dead [with expected years remaining less than 5 each] recorded as from/with covid19. For me these are in no way equivalent. Very difficult to express though in a way that's acceptable. How do you do that?

Maybe lost lifetimes or lost generations [where everyone is considered to have 2 or 3 "generations" over the course of 70 years of adulthood]?

Is there not some measure other than death counts that the media could sensationalize that would serve their purposes just as well as 5 dead but reflect the relative loss of years?

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On 14/07/2020 at 14:52, BWW said:

The 5 Kent suicides in this article can then be recorded as 400 life-years lost due to lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jul/13/deaths-special-needs-children-kent-raise-concerns-over-school-closures

5 in five months against a normal 2 or 3 in twelve months.

Nationally 25 in fifty six days against a normal 26 in eighty two days.

None of that looks statistically significant to me.

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