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I might have to go short cable again next week :P

Market talk that the £ is now an 'emerging market' currency

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/29890/2020-06-24-boa-pound-sterling-now-trading-like-an-emerging-market-currency.html

It really started to go down after 'Brexit vote'.....can't see what the UK has gained from Brexit so far?......was it worth it when it's fucked your currency?

In the four years since the UK voted to leave the EU, trading conditions in the pound and the big swings in exchange rates make it a better match with the Mexican peso than the US dollar, said Kamal Sharma, a currency analyst at Bank of America. He said movements in the currency since the June 2016 Brexit vote had become “neurotic at best, unfathomable at worst”.

Edited by 5min OCD speculator
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Here's the five year chart of the pound against the Euro and it has spent the last four years trading in the 1.1 - 1.2 range so the above linked piece must therefore be equally applicable to the Euro.

Though as that doesn't provide an opportunity to bash Brexit it won't garner the column inches.

 

image.thumb.png.6c80379d12bcb380d753d0f28e73f117.png

 

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

Here's the five year chart of the pound against the Euro and it has spent the last four years trading in the 1.1 - 1.2 range so the above linked piece must therefore be equally applicable to the Euro.

Though as that doesn't provide an opportunity to bash Brexit it won't garner the column inches.

 

image.thumb.png.6c80379d12bcb380d753d0f28e73f117.png

 

I have to pay for stuff at work in currencies other than GBP, so have a long standing interest in the exchange rate with European currencies.  I have recorded the exchange rate against the Swiss franc and the Deutsche Mark ( and now the Euro) over the last 20 years.  It has been on a downward trajectory for all of that time, with the biggest leap down during the financial crisis of 2007/2008.  Friends have tried to tell me about how awful Brexit was for the currency, but barely a blip on the graph.

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3 minutes ago, Inigo said:

I have to pay for stuff at work in currencies other than GBP, so have a long standing interest in the exchange rate with European currencies.  I have recorded the exchange rate against the Swiss franc and the Deutsche Mark ( and now the Euro) over the last 20 years.  It has been on a downward trajectory for all of that time, with the biggest leap down during the financial crisis of 2007/2008.  Friends have tried to tell me about how awful Brexit was for the currency, but barely a blip on the graph.

Agreed.  This is the longer term graph. 

The level of 1.4 is actually the blip in the period 2008 - present.

Pound%20to%20Euro%20Graph-1.png

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4 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I might have to go short cable again next week :P

Market talk that the £ is now an 'emerging market' currency

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/29890/2020-06-24-boa-pound-sterling-now-trading-like-an-emerging-market-currency.html

It really started to go down after 'Brexit vote'.....can't see what the UK has gained from Brexit so far?......was it worth it when it's fucked your currency?

In the four years since the UK voted to leave the EU, trading conditions in the pound and the big swings in exchange rates make it a better match with the Mexican peso than the US dollar, said Kamal Sharma, a currency analyst at Bank of America. He said movements in the currency since the June 2016 Brexit vote had become “neurotic at best, unfathomable at worst”.

As it stands, currency wise, theres the dollar.

And that's its.

Swiss franc is almost a  gold play

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Posted (edited)

hmmmm

Thanks for your interesting and thought provoking comments so far citizens :D

@spygirl you have no doubt built a formidable reputation based on your unbridled knowledge and life experiences but you do come out with some strange thoughts every now and again O.o

I too have experience in largish currency transactions over the last 20/21 years, I remember it was either 1999 or 2000 when I got 1.63€ to £ - I looked for some graphs to back this up, they certainly show up to 1.7

Then by the end of 2015 it was down to 1.42

9 months later by October 2016 (post Brexit) it was down to 1.11.......today it's still hovering around this level ie it got fucked by Brexit and never recovered

I was gonna do some % drop calcs but actually I can't be arsed......funny how trends can be crystal clear to some folk and other's shrug their shoulders and keep sucking on the hopium xD

Cheers 

Edited by 5min OCD speculator
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2 hours ago, Errol said:

Gold tells you everything you need to know.

methinks it only tells us it's a 'race to the bottom' between all FIAT, not specifically telling re £.....unless I'm missing something?

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Sterling should have another 8% upside here,the countries printing the most will see their currencies do well,the ones printing the least will suffer.

Reason being this is all about liquidity at this stage to avoid systemic collapse.More printing,less chance everything goes tits up.We will know soon enough.

 

ok interesting thanks, you basing that on DXY projections? what's your timescale?

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3 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

I wouldn't write off the pound just yet. At least compared to the euro which does not look to have a rosy future.

saw something recently along the lines:

Southern europe: we're skint again, need more money

Germany+France: ok you can have more money as long as you buy German/French goods

Sounds a reasonable proposition to me. Would it work re England, Scotland etc?

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Must be time to buy GBP again. These £ is fucked threads always surface near a bottom.

The Euro is a relatively new currency and so not a good test of anything. Better to look at the USD.

What do the 1970's, 1980's, 1990's, 2000's, 2010's all have in common? £1 = $1.60 at some stage. Quite simply that's the rate and anything else is just noise. GBP will hit $1.60 at some stage in the 2020's (Nap).

https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

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2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

methinks it only tells us it's a 'race to the bottom' between all FIAT, not specifically telling re £.....unless I'm missing something?

ok interesting thanks, you basing that on DXY projections? what's your timescale?

by late autumn/early winter id expect,iMarkets underneath still smell systemic risk,so printing boosts currency right now.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

GBP will hit $1.60 at some stage in the 2020's (Nap).

Bollocks! British economy is in permanent decline and no turning back...they don't make anything! They can't even produce enough leccy......and the dumb fucks are trying to get everyone into shitty leccy cars O.o

At least Europe still makes some stuff and is warm enough to grow stuff.....and wine!!

if the £ hits anything above 1.4€ I'll cut off my left bollock, bbq it and feed it to the hornets......

It'll mean stuff in Europe turns dirt cheap again and I could buy a replacement nacker for £2.99 :P

What does (Nap) mean??

Edited by 5min OCD speculator
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50 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Bollocks! British economy is in permanent decline and no turning back...they don't make anything! They can't even produce enough leccy......and the dumb fucks are trying to get everyone into shitty leccy cars O.o

At least Europe still makes some stuff and is warm enough to grow stuff.....and wine!!

if the £ hits anything above 1.4€ I'll cut off my left bollock, bbq it and feed it to the hornets......

It'll mean stuff in Europe turns dirt cheap again and I could buy a replacement nacker for £2.99 :P

What does (Nap) mean??

2020's is up to Dec 31st 2029.

Nap means you are more confident than NB.

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

2020's is up to Dec 31st 2029.

sure I get that......BUT it's been on a major downward trajectory for the last 20 years......certainly vs the €..........

So are you long cable at the moment? ;)

EDIT: look at Frank's chart above....if you're a chartist that's classic charting!

Ie the 1.4-1.41 level was support, becomes resistance, whoosh shits the bed! It'll take a monster buyer to get it back above that level :P

Edited by 5min OCD speculator
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7 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

sure I get that......BUT it's been on a major downward trajectory for the last 20 years......certainly vs the €..........

So are you long cable at the moment? ;)

EDIT: look at Frank's chart above....if you're a chartist that's classic charting!

Ie the 1.4-1.41 level was support, becomes resistance, whoosh shits the bed! It'll take a monster buyer to get it back above that level :P

I don't have a position of long sterling except holding it because that's currently what my daily living expenses are in and I still could buy a house here but that is looking less likely by the day daily governbankment prop.

The Euro has only been around for 20 years, it might be here today gone tomorrow.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

,so printing boosts currency right now

hmmmm I can't get my head around that one....

I'm OK with - US$ is reserve currency, there is a shortage of dollars due to current crisis, FED needs to print more $ to save the system, DXY goes down as a result....

This doesn't apply to all the other 'toilet paper' currencies??? You have to be relying on the FED outprinting all other Central Banks AND that money flowing freely in the system....

It's not though, it's either bunged up (there's no velocity) or it's going straight to BOA and JPMorgan O.o

Disclaimer: I'm ignoring government directed corporate bank magicked money onto their balance sheets to boost the economy cos I haven't read enough about that yet :D

 

Edited by 5min OCD speculator
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2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Bollocks! British economy is in permanent decline and no turning back...they don't make anything! They can't even produce enough leccy......and the dumb fucks are trying to get everyone into shitty leccy cars O.o

At least Europe still makes some stuff and is warm enough to grow stuff.....and wine!!

if the £ hits anything above 1.4€ I'll cut off my left bollock, bbq it and feed it to the hornets......

It'll mean stuff in Europe turns dirt cheap again and I could buy a replacement nacker for £2.99 :P

What does (Nap) mean??

Have you seen Europes net exports?

ZIlch.

Remove Germany and youve got yourself a disaster.

 

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On 18/07/2020 at 06:24, 5min OCD speculator said:

I might have to go short cable again next week :P

Market talk that the £ is now an 'emerging market' currency

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/29890/2020-06-24-boa-pound-sterling-now-trading-like-an-emerging-market-currency.html

It really started to go down after 'Brexit vote'.....can't see what the UK has gained from Brexit so far?......was it worth it when it's fucked your currency?

In the four years since the UK voted to leave the EU, trading conditions in the pound and the big swings in exchange rates make it a better match with the Mexican peso than the US dollar, said Kamal Sharma, a currency analyst at Bank of America. He said movements in the currency since the June 2016 Brexit vote had become “neurotic at best, unfathomable at worst”.

Private individuals should not be messing around with FOREX postions.

Sure, buy a stock which have lots of earnings in a Euro or Swiss currency.

Dont touch naked FOREX positions.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

hmmmm I can't get my head around that one....

I'm OK with - US$ is reserve currency, there is a shortage of dollars due to current crisis, FED needs to print more $ to save the system, DXY goes down as a result....

This doesn't apply to all the other 'toilet paper' currencies??? You have to be relying on the FED outprinting all other Central Banks AND that money flowing freely in the system....

It's not though, it's either bunged up (there's no velocity) or it's going straight to BOA and JPMorgan O.o

Disclaimer: I'm ignoring government directed corporate bank magicked money onto their balance sheets to boost the economy cos I haven't read enough about that yet :D

 

Leads and lags,in the medium and longer term it lowers the currency IF the assets of the country dont increase at the same or higher rate,as clearly they are not,or as you say the FED outprint,as i think they might at a cycle turn.

Velocity is low due to globalisation,as supply chains come back velocity will increase sharply.Printed £ gets turned in $ and buys Chinese trampoline,$ is invested in treasuries.Velocity always slows when there is no need to worry or rush,it speeds up when most economists think it should slow down,during stress.

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