The UK property market has been and still is Nationlised under the Tories.

[spygirl]

14 hours ago, Google247 said:

What is the usual lag between the bond rates changing and the cost of credit filtering out around the world?

Its pretty instant.

[crashmonitor]

22 hours ago, spygirl said:

How do you work that out?

~50% of houses have no fiance on them, owned by owner.

 

 

Debt as a proportion of equity is indeed very low ( lowest in recorded history)..about 1.2 trillion against 8 trillion. Though I agree with Harold that property is changing  hands at fantasy prices because most transactions are not purchases but equity swaps up a housing chain involving little or no extra finance.

The South East  and London is a bit like the Lebanon, same population density pressured by unlimited immigration, an indebted public sector ( nearly 200% of GDP over there) and they can support million dollar plus house prices. So I've stopped trying  to second guess where the UK Market is going.

To be clear though we are talking the South East and not Stoke, Middlesborough and Burnley where prices have been falling in real terms for 16 years now.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Debt as a proportion of equity is indeed very low ( lowest in recorded history)..about 1.2 trillion against 8 trillion. Though I agree with Harold that property is changing  houses at fantasy prices because most transactions are not purchases but equity swaps up a housing chain involving little or no extra finance.

The South East  and London is a bit like the Lebannon, same population density pressured by unlimited immigration, an indebted public sector ( nearly 200% of GDP over there) and they can support million dollar plus house prices. So I've stopped trying  to second guess where the UK Market is going.

To be clear though we are talking the South East and not Stoke, Middlesborough and Burnley where prices have been falling in real terms for 16 years now.

The number of IO only OO and BTL houses in London/Se is of the scale.

IO will be banned soon.

People whowork lie in Lebannon.That is not the case in London any more.

 

 

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Debt as a proportion of equity is indeed very low ( lowest in recorded history)..about 1.2 trillion against 8 trillion. Though I agree with Harold that property is changing  houses at fantasy prices because most transactions are not purchases but equity swaps up a housing chain involving little or no extra finance.

The South East  and London is a bit like the Lebannon, same population density pressured by unlimited immigration, an indebted public sector ( nearly 200% of GDP over there) and they can support million dollar plus house prices. So I've stopped trying  to second guess where the UK Market is going.

To be clear though we are talking the South East and not Stoke, Middlesborough and Burnley where prices have been falling in real terms for 16 years now.

UK transaction cost are high, so they cannot do it much.

Besides, moving when you are older is less n less common. People stay put now, rarely moving when they get to 60.

The housign in majority of UK wis now a play on probate. Bad flu season will see large nubmer of property dumped o nthe market.

 

 

[Guest]

22 hours ago, haroldshand said:

When I say Nationlised I mean that the value of property in the UK is 100% controlled and set.

1. Right to buy

2. Help to buy

3, self cert(now gone)

4. Historical low interest rates.

5. Debt forgiveness 

6. High population growth

7. Deliberate housing shortage

 

And there is more

Bank bailouts create moral hazard for lenders to engage in poor quality (e.g. high income multiple) lending on the assumption that if it all goes wrong the Government will use taxpayer cash to keep the big banks afloat. I do think this is a kind of quasi-nationalisation, kinowing that whatever dumb business decisions you make the state will ultimately have your back.

[goldbug9999]

8 hours ago, Green Devil said:

It not rocket science, if you make the monthly interest less, there is more to spend on tat/restaurants/service industrys/holidays etc. 

Thats not what happens though, when IRs fall a good proportion of people spend the extra money on buying a more expensive house and/or bidding up house prices to even higher levels.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Youd probably find spending has nothing to do with fantasy house price values at all. 

Spending has a lot to do with fantasy house price values, just not in the direction Alastair Darling claimed. If you want to buy a house you need to save up a huge deposit if you live in southern England, that means less spending. If you then buy a house at fantasy house price values you will have less to spend on other things than if you'd been able to buy a cheaper house.

[jm51]

There was a lot spending during the house price crash of the early 90s. Young couples would buy cheap and then spend on diy stuff or get the builders in. 

One of my customers had a mini skip business then and trade was roaring. He bought a small plot of land. Cheap because it wouldn't get planning permission. He put a couple of large skips there and emptied his mini skips into them. Saved him a lot of money in tip fees as the mini skip fees were very high wrt volume.

 

[goldbug9999]

6 hours ago, jm51 said:

There was a lot spending during the house price crash of the early 90s. Young couples would buy cheap and then spend on diy stuff or get the builders in. 

Its always a net benefit to the economy for something to be cheaper.

[spygirl]

On 17/08/2020 at 10:05, Darude said:

Spending has a lot to do with fantasy house price values, just not in the direction Alastair Darling claimed. If you want to buy a house you need to save up a huge deposit if you live in southern England, that means less spending. If you then buy a house at fantasy house price values you will have less to spend on other things than if you'd been able to buy a cheaper house.

Not just the deposit.

High fixed housign costs are a sure fire way to destroy and economy.

I saw this in the 90s, down South. North did alot of better.

 

I see it even more, as the finsec continues shedding jobs and shrinking and Southern towns look more n more like Boro.

 

[twocents]

Whatever the economic reality in the past consumer spending has been used at the very least by the BoE as a reason to implement policies supporting house prices clearly for the benefit of the establishment, bankers, property developers, landlords, builders and such like.

They all consider consumer spending to be a good sound bite.

Clearly in ultimate terms the policy doesn't work for the nation as a whole as is evidenced by the dire economic position the UK is now continually in.

 

[goldbug9999]

30 minutes ago, twocents said:

Whatever the economic reality in the past consumer spending has been used at the very least by the BoE as a reason to implement policies supporting house prices clearly for the benefit of the establishment, bankers, property developers, landlords, builders and such like.

They all consider consumer spending to be a good sound bite.

Clearly in ultimate terms the policy doesn't work for the nation as a whole as is evidenced by the dire economic position the UK is now continually in.

 

The high-house-prices-are-good meme is a variation of the Broken Window Fallacy.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/broken-window-fallacy.asp

I cant believe that a central bank governor is ignorant of this foundational economic principal, which means it must be wilful disregard.

[sancho panza]

On 16/08/2020 at 09:52, spygirl said:

How do you work that out?

~50% of houses have no fiance on them, owned by owner.

 

 

it's 30% spy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_in_the_United_Kingdom

Housing in the United Kingdom represents the largest non-financial asset class in the UK; its overall net value passed the £5 trillion mark in 2014.^[1] About 30% of homes are owned outright by their occupants, and a further 40% are owner-occupied on a mortgage. About 18% are social housing of some kind, and the remaining 12% are privately rented.

[Loki]

9 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

The high-house-prices-are-good meme is a variation of the Broken Window Fallacy.

What a brilliant way of putting it.  Needs to spread.