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Big ‘FAAAT’ Bubble about to ‘pop’..... Sept 2020 ??


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This needs its own thread I think...,

How long can this big ‘FAAAT’ bubble continue? 

F - Facebook

A - Apple

A - Amazon

A - Alphabet (Google)

T - Tesla

I ‘bottled’ going NASDAQ QQQ short on August 2nd as I thought the ‘market melt-up’ still had a way to go.....

Everyday I become more incredulous with disbelief. 

My longterm outlook is a massive INFLATIONARY rise during the ‘next decade’ with Interest Rates rising (stagflationary depression) as they tighten the curve. 

Best investments ? MPOTIS

M - Miners

P - Potash

O - Oils

T - Telecoms

I - Infrastructure (Roads, Buildings, Water Utilities)

S - Silver

....... as vocalised by @DurhamBorn these may possibly be the best places to put your money from 2021-2030.
The 2020-30 decade will possibly end in a massive currency/fiat/economic collapse. The ‘Big Kahuna’.....

However WHEN the ‘FAAAT’ bubble pops (imminently?) it will take everything with it. The rest of the NASDAQ (possibly 65% top to bottom fall?) and the S&P, DOW, Russell, Japan, UK, Europe, Emerging markets .... the lot will come crashing down causing a global deflationary bust.

Printing will then go into overdrive and cause the inflationary spiral of certain cyclical sectors - eventually find its way into MPOTIS....

I am not sure I want to ride out this (imminent?) deflationary bust - and think maybe taking good profits in most of my stocks and sitting out of the market is the wisest thing to do - and hopefully get the opportunity to re-enter after the event like I did in March of this year and March 2000...(I’ll possibly hold a little in certain sectors).

The last 5 months have been fun. But the ‘potential downside’ is starting to outweigh the ‘potential upside’ for me......

A market crash takes no prisoners. I felt like this in March 2000.... and have learnt form experience. Reading the bitcoin thread also reinforces the psychology behind this to me.... 

I may miss out on another 20% or even more upside but eh?.... I’ll sleep well. 😁

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Edited by Vendetta
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Right ...... I’ve liquidated about 66% of my portfolio. I ended up with some nice profits in Silver, Metal Miners and Potash. I have had a great run since March and learnt so much tradi

This needs its own thread I think..., How long can this big ‘FAAAT’ bubble continue?  F - Facebook A - Apple A - Amazon A - Alphabet (Google) T - Tesla I ‘bottled’ g

I think as many others have commented Tesla is the Enron of this bubble, the PE ratio in its own right is utterly absurd, when compared to other car manufacturers it is pure mental. When the sharepric

Posted Images

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:


This needs its own thread I think...,

How long can this big ‘FAAAT’ bubble continue? 

F - Facebook

A - Apple

A - Amazon

A - Alphabet (Google)

T - Tesla

I ‘bottled’ going NASDAQ QQQ short on August 2nd as I thought the ‘market melt-up’ still had a way to go.....

Everyday I become more incredulous with disbelief. 

My longterm outlook is a massive INFLATIONARY rise during the ‘next decade’ with Interest Rates rising (stagflationary depression) as they tighten the curve. 

Best investments ? MPOTIS

M - Miners

P - Potash

O - Oils

T - Telecoms

I - Infrastructure (Roads, Buildings, Water Utilities)

S - Silver

....... as vocalised by @DurhamBorn these may possibly be the best places to put your money from 2021-2030.
The 2020-30 decade will possibly end in a massive currency/fiat/economic collapse. The ‘Big Kahuna’.....

However WHEN the ‘FAAAT’ bubble pops (imminently?) it will take everything with it. The rest of the NASDAQ (possibly 65% top to bottom fall?) and the S&P, DOW, Russell, Japan, UK, Europe, Emerging markets .... the lot will come crashing down causing a global deflationary bust.

Printing will then go into overdrive and cause the inflationary spiral of certain cyclical sectors - eventually find its way into MPOTIS....

I am not sure I want to ride out this (imminent?) deflationary bust - and think maybe taking good profits in most of my stocks and sitting out of the market is the wisest thing to do - and hopefully get the opportunity to re-enter after the event like I did in March of this year and March 2000...(I’ll possibly hold a little in certain sectors).

The last 5 months have been fun. But the ‘potential downside’ is starting to outweigh the ‘potential upside’ for me......

A market crash takes no prisoners. I felt like this in March 2000.... and have learnt form experience. Reading the bitcoin thread also reinforces the psychology behind this to me.... 

I may miss out on another 20% or even more upside but eh?.... I’ll sleep well. 😁

E8596CB5-9943-439F-9E18-5C3A36B0B197.jpeg

0F0DC499-C451-4B52-8C17-137070E3E5A8.jpeg

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Uncle Warren is rather exposed.

https://www.etoro.com/copyportfolios/warrenbuffet-cf/portfolio

Apart from Coca-Cola I don't own any of the Oracles Stocks.(I sold my Barrick Stock when I heard this Bozo had bought some).Although I do have exposure through the Vaneck ETF.

I have recently read many comments from his fanboys that kindly Uncle Warren hasn't really bought any Gold as he has just bought Stock in a Gold miner, which they are correct but they are just splitting hairs in my opinion.

If he bought Barrick outright he would have millions of Physical Gold ounces in the ground.

Edited by M S E Refugee
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5 hours ago, Vendetta said:

How long can this big ‘FAAAT’ bubble continue? 

You're probably right and your graphs back you up!  I thought the housing boom was over in 2003 so I'm not someone to know what's going to happen. Ditto with the FAANGS which seem to have been overvalued for ages.

I don't have much invested in stocks but if I sold them I would be crystallizing a few losses so I'm more inclined to leave well alone but be poised with some cash ready to buy if we get another rout similar to March.

In theory I saw all this happen in 2000 but I wasn't in the market then so it didn't affect me.  There's nothing like having some skin in the game. So I will be following events closely.

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Right ......

I’ve liquidated about 66% of my portfolio.

I ended up with some nice profits in Silver, Metal Miners and Potash.

I have had a great run since March and learnt so much trading and on this site (thanks @DurhamBornfor your insight - I am convinced you will be proved right and will be ‘hopefully’ rejoining you on that journey in the next year or two).

I am going to ‘leave some for the next man’. I just had too much ‘skin in the game’ to sleep easily - during what I think is a massive tech/equity bubble which is ‘double topping’..... (if it breaks through it will go to 15,000pts - if not it will fall big style). 

I am happy to continue to have a much lesser ‘stake’ in the market and continue to hold some ‘20 year ++ dividend stocks’ in  Potash, Oil, Telecoms (POT) and a little bitcoin. If these fall 20%-30%  .....meh.... not bothered - the ‘potential’ dividend payments and longterm recovery of these ‘Big Large Cap POT companies’  should insulate any ‘short term’ losses.

My plan is to eventually increase my holdings in these areas and buy back in on other sectors in about 6 or 7 months. I’ll be building cash until then. 

I will be even more prepared and ready to take advantage when the ‘next time opportunity comes’! I was lucky to enter the market in March and buy my first shares when RDSB was £9.80, MOS $10, FCX (copper) $7 and silver £14/oz. Pure luck and reading great posts from those in here.

Too many  ‘headwinds‘ and uncertainty facing the world economy at present. Covid continuing, slashed global growth and GDP, China trade issues, US election, US, EU and U.K. Debt in their trillions, Brexit, EU break-up, war ?! .....and an irrational market that has run up by nearly 40% since the March drop and double topped, Robin Hood Traders, ‘everyone’ talking about their stocks and how much money they have ‘made’, ETFs potentially blowing up?, and 50% of Index growth concentrated in just 5 tech stocks... all looking a bit too much like ‘Year 2000’ for me - with Tesla being the Enron of 2000.

Right (now I’ve sold up) I hope you guys enjoy the market melt-up boom by another 30% and see the NASDAQ at 15,000pts (S&P at 4000 ‘a la Hunter’) by November! 😂

Ideally the market will stay horizontal moving sideways for 6 months - and I will get my ‘deflationary bust’ around March and pick-up some discounted ‘MPOTIS’ stocks. I am going to have a lovely weekend gardening, beekeeping, and installing a new shed - and not thinking about Silver and Potash..... 

Good Luck! 
 

 

Edited by Vendetta
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6 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Right ......

I’ve liquidated about 66% of my portfolio.

I ended up with some nice profits in Silver, Metal Miners and Potash.

I have had a great run since March and learnt so much trading and on this site (thanks @DurhamBornfor your insight - I am convinced you will be proved right and will be ‘hopefully’ rejoining you on that journey in the next year or two).

I am going to ‘leave some for the next man’. I just had too much ‘skin in the game’ to sleep easily - during what I think is a massive tech/equity bubble which is ‘double topping’..... (if it breaks through it will go to 15,000pts - if not it will fall big style). 

I am happy to continue to have a much lesser ‘stake’ in the market and continue to hold some ‘20 year ++ dividend stocks’ in  Potash, Oil, Telecoms (POT) and a little bitcoin. If these fall 20%-30%  .....meh.... not bothered - the ‘potential’ dividend payments and longterm recovery of these ‘Big Large Cap POT companies’  should insulate any ‘short term’ losses.

My plan is to eventually increase my holdings in these areas and buy back in on other sectors in about 6 or 7 months. I’ll be building cash until then. 

I will be even more prepared and ready to take advantage when the ‘next time opportunity comes’! I was lucky to enter the market in March and buy my first shares when RDSB was £9.80, MOS $10, FCX (copper) $7 and silver £14/oz. Pure luck and reading great posts from those in here.

Too many  ‘headwinds‘ and uncertainty facing the world economy at present. Covid continuing, slashed global growth and GDP, China trade issues, US election, US, EU and U.K. Debt in their trillions, Brexit, EU break-up, war ?! .....and an irrational market that has run up by nearly 40% since the March drop and double topped, Robin Hood Traders, ‘everyone’ talking about their stocks and how much money they have ‘made’, ETFs potentially blowing up?, and 50% of Index growth concentrated in just 5 tech stocks... all looking a bit too much like ‘Year 2000’ for me - with Tesla being the Enron of 2000.

Right (now I’ve sold up) I hope you guys enjoy the market melt-up boom by another 30% and see the NASDAQ at 15,000pts (S&P at 4000 ‘a la Hunter’) by November! 😂

Ideally the market will stay horizontal moving sideways for 6 months - and I will get my ‘deflationary bust’ around March and pick-up some discounted ‘MPOTIS’ stocks. I am going to have a lovely weekend gardening, beekeeping, and installing a new shed - and not thinking about Silver and Potash..... 

Good Luck! 
 

 

Fair play, I'm not selling yet as think there is still some way to go based on how the fangs and housing market have done over the last 10 years.

I can see more goverent props being rolled out in the near future. Extending the eviction ban by four weeks feels like they are buying time to me...

I have top sliced once but thats all until the next leg up for me.

Edited by stockton
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Conspiracy hat on 1

The pumping of these stocks, especially Tesla has paused the rise in Gold and Bitcoin. If these things are a threat to the dollar, the pumping of these stocks has worked to ease the pressure.

The next obvious step to this "threat money" to the dollar is the round it up and trap it all together. Then the next step is to take that money away from people. They can do this by crashing these stocks (which are secondary to the dollar), the punters sell their positions in disgust, and the losses are crystallised. It will take some time for the punters to rebuild their capital if they lose $10K, $50K etc.

Conspiracy hat on 2

If they want to get Trump out of office, this is the last chance saloon. A crash right before the election will make all that feel good feeling paper wealth disappear overnight. Let that feeling sink in, and that might be enough to sway the middle ground.

It could be a tough winter for people caught out if there is a big crash.

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4 hours ago, 201p said:

 

Conspiracy hat on 2

If they want to get Trump out of office, this is the last chance saloon. A crash right before the election will make all that feel good feeling paper wealth disappear overnight. Let that feeling sink in, and that might be enough to sway the middle ground.

It could be a tough winter for people caught out if there is a big crash.

Yup.

I expect fireworks in Oct.

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, 201p said:

Conspiracy hat on 1

The pumping of these stocks, especially Tesla has paused the rise in Gold and Bitcoin. If these things are a threat to the dollar, the pumping of these stocks has worked to ease the pressure.

The next obvious step to this "threat money" to the dollar is the round it up and trap it all together. Then the next step is to take that money away from people. They can do this by crashing these stocks (which are secondary to the dollar), the punters sell their positions in disgust, and the losses are crystallised. It will take some time for the punters to rebuild their capital if they lose $10K, $50K etc.

Conspiracy hat on 2

If they want to get Trump out of office, this is the last chance saloon. A crash right before the election will make all that feel good feeling paper wealth disappear overnight. Let that feeling sink in, and that might be enough to sway the middle ground.

It could be a tough winter for people caught out if there is a big crash.

Mind that wall of money has to go somewhere does it not? E.g. Someone has sold TESLA today at $2049.98 and put the money in the bank (or maybe reinvested in other stocks etc?).

That is why I am holding on to BITCOIN and will be buying more GOLD and Silver a few days after the potential crash.... (hopefully at a discount as people cover their margin calls and make a dash for liquidity by selling everything!). 
 

PMs should take a dip (maybe 20-30% ?) if the big FAAAT crash materialises...?  
 

The ‘wall of money’ will always need a home and will eventually come back into market in the Great Reinflation (2021-30) as currencies fall in their asses.....

After the 2000 dotcom crash, ‘the wall of money’ went into real estate forming the asset bubble that generated the 2007 crash... 

After 2008 ‘the wall of money’ eventually went into Oil and Gold ...... 

There will always be bubbles....

Edited by Vendetta
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What the 21st century can learn from the 1929 crash | Larry ...

I expect the contemporary version of this picture will feature a Tesla.

After watching a few videos on YouTube about Tesla stock I find it fascinating that many Tesla fanboys contend in the comments that the Stock is actually too cheap and must go higher.

The spectre of a global depression means nothing to them.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

What the 21st century can learn from the 1929 crash | Larry ...

I expect the contemporary version of this picture will feature a Tesla.

After watching a few videos on YouTube about Tesla stock I find it fascinating that many Tesla fanboys contend in the comments that the Stock is actually too cheap and must go higher.

The spectre of a global depression means nothing to them.

It’s a ‘new paradigm’ silly! 

It is different this time.

Get on board or you will miss out! 

842% rise in a year! 

Check out TSLA PE ratio..... 🤔

@Wight Flight - what do you think about investing in TSLA for your boy? Good time to dive in? 
 

TESLA PE RATIO;

4C3AFB5A-0271-44A8-89AB-828DB7BAA972.jpeg

AE3C9DEA-867E-41EB-9523-BBDB33E2FA7F.jpeg

Edited by Vendetta
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3 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

It’s a ‘new paradigm’ silly! 

It is different this time.

Get on board or you will miss out! 

842% rise in a year! 

Check out TSLA PE ratio..... 🤔

@Wight Flight - what do you think about investing in TSLA for your boy? Good time to dive in? 
 

TESLA PE RATIO;

4C3AFB5A-0271-44A8-89AB-828DB7BAA972.jpeg

AE3C9DEA-867E-41EB-9523-BBDB33E2FA7F.jpeg

I am offering him no advice about what to invest in.

That would be a quick way to a frosty relationship.

He has already invested £100 in TSLA. We will see what happens...

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I am offering him no advice about what to invest in.

That would be a quick way to a frosty relationship.

He has already invested £100 in TSLA. We will see what happens...

He’s made an excellent choice if he purchased in early April. Well done that man! 
 

Whatever happens it’s a learning curve. I wish someone had guided me in my teenage years. Mind working it out myself in 1997 as a 21 year old was also very beneficial. 
 

One thing to note is H&L might not be the best provider if he is just buying small quantities of stock - due to commission. 
Use another provider instead with free trade - but these have larger spreads so not really ‘free’ dealing.

Edited by Vendetta
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1 minute ago, Vendetta said:

He’s made an excellent choice if he purchased in early April. Well done that man! 
 

One thing to note is H&L might not be the best provider if he is just buying small quantities of stock - due to commission. 
Use another provider instead with free trade - but these have larger spreads so not really ‘free’ dealing.

No. He bought this week.

Whatever happens he will learn something.

And yes, I doubt he will do anything more than £100 trades for the first couple of years so the fees will be key.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

No. He bought this week.

Whatever happens he will learn something.

And yes, I doubt he will do anything more than £100 trades for the first couple of years so the fees will be key.

“Whatever happens he will learn something”.

Exactly. A sensible approach. 
 

Also....

In 20 years TESLA may own every other car manufacturer and be the only producer of electric cars in the world and have merged with Apple.... 

(I could have bought Facebook in 2013 - thought it looked bubbly.... haha! )

Edited by Vendetta
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11 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

One thing to note is H&L might not be the best provider if he is just buying small quantities of stock - due to commission. 
Use another provider instead with free trade - but these have larger spreads so not really ‘free’ dealing.

Agreed.

Just found @No One thread. Trading212 looks to be a better option for him.

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56 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

“Whatever happens he will learn something”.

Exactly. A sensible approach. 
 

Also....

In 20 years TESLA may own every other car manufacturer and be the only producer of electric cars in the world and have merged with Apple.... 

(I could have bought Facebook in 2013 - thought it looked bubbly.... haha! )

I think as many others have commented Tesla is the Enron of this bubble, the PE ratio in its own right is utterly absurd, when compared to other car manufacturers it is pure mental. When the shareprice implodes I think it will drop 95% from where it is now. In the meantime it may rise another 50% from here but ultimately that PE ratio will come into line with the rest of the industry. When it blows the wealth destruction will be phenomenal. I reckon a lot of punters will  be buying FAANG stocks all the way to the bottom thinking they are buying dips and the shares will recover. The wipeout in wealth is going to be remembered for a couple of generations.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Silly question. What does FAANG stand for?

FAANG 

Facebook

Apple

Amazon

Netflix

Google

I prefer FAAAT:

Facebook

Apple

Amazon

Alphabet (Google)

Tesla 

I love a good Acronym - another favourite:

M P O T I S:

Miners

Potash

Oils

Telecoms

Infrastructure

Silver

There are no ‘stupid questions’ - just stupid answers. Everyone’s learning and at different stages. The great thing about here is we all can bring something. 10 months ago I had absolutely zero interest in stockmarket. Wish I’d been quicker off the mark -  setting things up in February. The pandemic caught me unawares.... 😉

Edited by Vendetta
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On 21/08/2020 at 15:51, Vendetta said:

Right ......

I’ve liquidated about 66% of my portfolio.

I ended up with some nice profits in Silver, Metal Miners and Potash.

I have had a great run since March and learnt so much trading and on this site (thanks @DurhamBornfor your insight - I am convinced you will be proved right and will be ‘hopefully’ rejoining you on that journey in the next year or two).

I am going to ‘leave some for the next man’. I just had too much ‘skin in the game’ to sleep easily - during what I think is a massive tech/equity bubble which is ‘double topping’..... (if it breaks through it will go to 15,000pts - if not it will fall big style). 

I am happy to continue to have a much lesser ‘stake’ in the market and continue to hold some ‘20 year ++ dividend stocks’ in  Potash, Oil, Telecoms (POT) and a little bitcoin. If these fall 20%-30%  .....meh.... not bothered - the ‘potential’ dividend payments and longterm recovery of these ‘Big Large Cap POT companies’  should insulate any ‘short term’ losses.

My plan is to eventually increase my holdings in these areas and buy back in on other sectors in about 6 or 7 months. I’ll be building cash until then. 

I will be even more prepared and ready to take advantage when the ‘next time opportunity comes’! I was lucky to enter the market in March and buy my first shares when RDSB was £9.80, MOS $10, FCX (copper) $7 and silver £14/oz. Pure luck and reading great posts from those in here.

Too many  ‘headwinds‘ and uncertainty facing the world economy at present. Covid continuing, slashed global growth and GDP, China trade issues, US election, US, EU and U.K. Debt in their trillions, Brexit, EU break-up, war ?! .....and an irrational market that has run up by nearly 40% since the March drop and double topped, Robin Hood Traders, ‘everyone’ talking about their stocks and how much money they have ‘made’, ETFs potentially blowing up?, and 50% of Index growth concentrated in just 5 tech stocks... all looking a bit too much like ‘Year 2000’ for me - with Tesla being the Enron of 2000.

Right (now I’ve sold up) I hope you guys enjoy the market melt-up boom by another 30% and see the NASDAQ at 15,000pts (S&P at 4000 ‘a la Hunter’) by November! 😂

Ideally the market will stay horizontal moving sideways for 6 months - and I will get my ‘deflationary bust’ around March and pick-up some discounted ‘MPOTIS’ stocks. I am going to have a lovely weekend gardening, beekeeping, and installing a new shed - and not thinking about Silver and Potash..... 

Good Luck! 
 

 

Just dont look at the stock market or come on here for the next six months....you will only `beat yourself up` when what you have sold goes stratospheric! :-) :-):-)

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14 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

What the 21st century can learn from the 1929 crash | Larry ...

I expect the contemporary version of this picture will feature a Tesla.

After watching a few videos on YouTube about Tesla stock I find it fascinating that many Tesla fanboys contend in the comments that the Stock is actually too cheap and must go higher.

The spectre of a global depression means nothing to them.

People get `blinded` by greed and FOMO...it's only afterwards that they see reality, and then its too late.

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Some economists are suggesting that sovereign debt is no longer an economic issue because quantitative easing is here to stay and will not be the inflationary problem it once was... 100% debt/gdp ratio, 200% - who cares. All this printed money has to find a home - and the only home worthy of investment is equities. 
 

This new paradigm suggests that whilst the world economy is fucked, equities will do well. Go figure.

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