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ONS death registrations by age that mention covid


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The governbankment now counts covid deaths that are within 28 days of a positive covid test.

ONS data counts covid deaths if covid was mentioned on the death certificate. Therefore it may not have been the main reason for death, just an 'as well as'

These figures are mine, totalling the latest ONS weekly figures From Jan 1st to August 14th by age group and calculating a rough average age. The average age uses midpoints of each age group. In the group 90+ I used 95, so the average age might actually be higher.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

age number midpoint age Num * midpoint
<1 2 0.5 1
1-4 1 2.5 2.5
5-9 1 7 7
10-14 3 12 36
15-19 9 17 153
20-24 25 22 550
25-29 49 27 1323
30-34 82 32 2624
35-39 131 37 4847
40-44 255 42 10710
45-49 473 47 22231
50-54 867 52 45084
55-59 1483 57 84531
60-64 2107 62 130634
65-69 2868 67 192156
70-74 4746 72 341712
75-79 6853 77 527681
80-84 9799 82 803518
85-89 10530 87 916110
90+ 11217 95 1065615
  51501   4149525.5
      51501
    average age = 80.57
       
<1 to 9 4 total under 10 = 4
10 to 19 12 total under 20 = 16
20 to 29 74 total under 30 = 90
30 to 39 213 total under 40 = 303
40 to 49 728 total under 50 = 1031
50 to 59 2350 total under 60 = 3381
60 to 69 4975 total under 70 = 8356
70 to 79 11599 total under 80 = 19955
80 to 89 20329 total under 90 = 40284
90+ 11217 total any age 51501
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  • 4 weeks later...

Update for figures up to 11th Sept.

Absolute worst case scenario because it's covid on the death certificate, so only died with covid not necessarily of covid.

Now 51,917 deaths so up 416 since 14th Aug, by age:

<1   >   0
1-4   >   0
5-9   >   0
10-14   >   0
15-19   >   0
20-24   >   0
25-29   >   0
30-34   >   1
35-39   >   4
40-44   >   4
45-49   >   6
50-54   >   12
55-59   >   15
60-64   >   20
65-69   >   31
70-74   >   29
75-79   >   60
80-84   >   83
85-89   >   86
90+   >   65
       

416

Average age at death 80.55 years

0.5   >   1
2.5   >   2.5
7   >   7
12   >   36
17   >   153
22   >   550
27   >   1323
32   >   2656
37   >   4995
42   >   10878
47   >   22513
52   >   45708
57   >   85386
62   >   131874
67   >   194233
72   >   343800
77   >   532301
82   >   810324
87   >   923592
95   >   1071790
        4182122.5
      51917 80.55

 

Totals by age:

Age       Totals
0 to 9   >   4
10 to 19   >   12
20 to 29   >   74
30 to 39   >   218
40 to 49   >   738
50 to 59   >   2377
60 to 69   >   5026
70 to 79   >   11688
80 to 89   >   20498
90 or more   >   11282
All Ages   >   51917
         
Under 10   >   4
Under 20   >   16
Under 30   >   90
Under 40   >   308
Under 50   >   1046
Under 60   >   3423
Under 70   >   8449
Under 80   >   20137
Under 90   >   40635
All Ages   >   51917

 

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Previous post shows 416 deaths with not of covid in 28 days.

Comparing other causes of deaths for the month of August

Dementia and Alzheimer's disease   > 3777
Ischaemic heart diseases   > 3618
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung   > 2049
Cerebrovascular diseases   > 1911
Chronic lower respiratory diseases   > 1517
Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus   > 1112
Symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions   > 951
Influenza and Pneumonia   > 913
Malignant neoplasms, primary of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue   > 853
Malignant neoplasm of prostate   > 757
      17458

 

In August 2020, seven of the 10 leading causes of death were significantly below the five-year average for England (Figure 3). The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in deaths registered in April and May 2020 rising well above what would be expected (based on the five-year average). COVID-19 has had a larger impact on the most vulnerable people (such as those who already suffer from a medical condition), and those at older ages. Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of COVID-19. These deaths happening earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average, as seen in August 2020.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales

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44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Previous post shows 416 deaths with not of covid in 28 days.

Comparing other causes of deaths for the month of August

Dementia and Alzheimer's disease   > 3777
Ischaemic heart diseases   > 3618
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung   > 2049
Cerebrovascular diseases   > 1911
Chronic lower respiratory diseases   > 1517
Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus   > 1112
Symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions   > 951
Influenza and Pneumonia   > 913
Malignant neoplasms, primary of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue   > 853
Malignant neoplasm of prostate   > 757
      17458

 

In August 2020, seven of the 10 leading causes of death were significantly below the five-year average for England (Figure 3). The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in deaths registered in April and May 2020 rising well above what would be expected (based on the five-year average). COVID-19 has had a larger impact on the most vulnerable people (such as those who already suffer from a medical condition), and those at older ages. Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of COVID-19. These deaths happening earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average, as seen in August 2020.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales

Theres also another explanation for the fall in death rate - the NHS kills a lot of people, who would have lived a lot longer without medical intervention.

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23 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Theres also another explanation for the fall in death rate - the NHS kills a lot of people, who would have lived a lot longer without medical intervention.

Taking to someone the other week who is in the business of death kind of.  Said exactly the same thing.  The establishment had deliberately brought forward deaths of those at the end of the conveyor belt.  
 

This is beginning to feel more and more like an economic reset. 

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Just now, One percent said:

Taking to someone the other week who is in the business of death kind of.  Said exactly the same thing.  The establishment had deliberately brought forward deaths of those at the end of the conveyor belt.  
 

This is beginning to feel more and more like an economic reset. 

I dont think its deliberate - putting Granny in a sack then dropping her off tye pier would be surefire.

It's the piss poor procedures and practice that put frail old people through some complex, dangerous procedures. Or, more common, giving them a vast mix of different medicine that interact in wierd ways and fuck them over.

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12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I dont think its deliberate - putting Granny in a sack then dropping her off tye pier would be surefire.

It's the piss poor procedures and practice that put frail old people through some complex, dangerous procedures. Or, more common, giving them a vast mix of different medicine that interact in wierd ways and fuck them over.

It’s more than the deaths brought forward. It’s also that this virus, given the data , which isn’t accurate anyhow, due to the way the deaths have been reported, they are killing the economy and it looks like a higher unemployment rate than the 30s depression.  
 

unless they know something that there are not sharing of course. 

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1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Previous post shows 416 deaths with not of covid in 28 days.

Comparing other causes of deaths for the month of August

Dementia and Alzheimer's disease   > 3777
Ischaemic heart diseases   > 3618
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung   > 2049
Cerebrovascular diseases   > 1911
Chronic lower respiratory diseases   > 1517
Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus   > 1112
Symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions   > 951
Influenza and Pneumonia   > 913
Malignant neoplasms, primary of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue   > 853
Malignant neoplasm of prostate   > 757
      17458

 

In August 2020, seven of the 10 leading causes of death were significantly below the five-year average for England (Figure 3). The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in deaths registered in April and May 2020 rising well above what would be expected (based on the five-year average). COVID-19 has had a larger impact on the most vulnerable people (such as those who already suffer from a medical condition), and those at older ages. Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of COVID-19. These deaths happening earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average, as seen in August 2020.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales

So, looking at the deaths curve for this year, we would would expect the area between the recent under-shoot and the average curve to be a significant proportion of the area between the earlier over-shoot and the average curve.  Well, here are the curves, what do you think?

excess-mortality-raw-death-count.thumb.png.58de9224fabd308860bb5c98c6a809fc.png

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15 minutes ago, Big Boy said:

 

So, looking at the deaths curve for this year, we would would expect the area between the recent under-shoot and the average curve to be a significant proportion of the area between the earlier over-shoot and the average curve.  Well, here are the curves, what do you think?

excess-mortality-raw-death-count.thumb.png.58de9224fabd308860bb5c98c6a809fc.png

I'm not sure I'd expect it so quickly? If people have been taken out early, couldn't it be over a more gradual period than just a summer when deaths are lower than in winter anyway? I would have thought next winter would be when the taken out early were missing from the death stats.

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2 hours ago, Big Boy said:

So, looking at the deaths curve for this year, we would would expect the area between the recent under-shoot and the average curve to be a significant proportion of the area between the earlier over-shoot and the average curve.  Well, here are the curves, what do you think?

Am I right in thinking you're looking for evidence of the "tinder" theory (no connection to @stokiescum), that the COVID spike was people who would normally have died over the winter, but didn't because of a mild flu season 2019/20?

If so, I think it's clear that the Spring COVID spike was considerably bigger than the "missing" deaths just before. Also, as @Democorruptcy says, the undershoot afterwards could be spread out more, and would probably manifest mostly during winter 2020/21.

Total mortality figures can't really be gamed, but there is another problem (amongst several confounding factors) when looking at them, which is that after the COVID spike there will be a number of extra people dying from the consequences of lock-down. Those will be because of late cancer diagnoses and failure to get timely treatment for heart attacks; also cardiac disease, alcoholism and suicide caused by the lock-down.

Since those deaths will have a different age profile from COVID, it may be possible to pick them out of the deaths data split by age. I have heard estimates of around 40 000 for the cancer ones, but I don't think they are showing up yet, and may be spread over a year or more.

Apologies if I'm misunderstanding and it was a different point!

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9 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Am I right in thinking you're looking for evidence of the "tinder" theory (no connection to @stokiescum), that the COVID spike was people who would normally have died over the winter, but didn't because of a mild flu season 2019/20?

If so, I think it's clear that the Spring COVID spike was considerably bigger than the "missing" deaths just before. Also, as @Democorruptcy says, the undershoot afterwards could be spread out more, and would probably manifest mostly during winter 2020/21.

Total mortality figures can't really be gamed, but there is another problem (amongst several confounding factors) when looking at them, which is that after the COVID spike there will be a number of extra people dying from the consequences of lock-down. Those will be because of late cancer diagnoses and failure to get timely treatment for heart attacks; also cardiac disease, alcoholism and suicide caused by the lock-down.

Since those deaths will have a different age profile from COVID, it may be possible to pick them out of the deaths data split by age. I have heard estimates of around 40 000 for the cancer ones, but I don't think they are showing up yet, and may be spread over a year or more.

Apologies if I'm misunderstanding and it was a different point!

There's a popular view, often expressed, that those that died from Covid19 were "circling the drain" and would have died soon anyway.  Part of the evidence given for this view is that the deaths curve was under-shooting the average for some weeks after the spring spike along with quotes like the above from the ONS, "In August 2020, seven of the 10 leading causes of death were significantly below the five-year average for England (Figure 3)."  The areas between the curves show that this view is incorrect.

Deaths from an infectious disease are "brought forward", but here I would expect the under-shoot caused to be smeared out over a long period of time - consistent with the suggested average of ~10 years life lost with each Covid19 death.

More related to the original post, I've combined the number of deaths posted by @Democorruptcy with the demographics of England and Wales to get a %age dead per age band (so far).  For my age group it's currently around 0.02% or 1 in 5000 - not exactly terrifying!

PercentDead.png.1c001f6d7ea2ddc90210fcacb8ad30e1.png

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53 minutes ago, Big Boy said:

consistent with the suggested average of ~10 years life lost with each Covid19 death

I’m very surprised that’s the average.

Especially when the average age of Covid deaths seems to be about 80.  And the average life expectancy seems to be about 80.

Accepted,  the figures are probably offset somewhat by the vast number of carehome / hospital cases. If it had spread much more widely in the population I could believe the average would be a bit lower.

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43 minutes ago, Big Boy said:

There's a popular view, often expressed, that those that died from Covid19 were "circling the drain" and would have died soon anyway.  Part of the evidence given for this view is that the deaths curve was under-shooting the average for some weeks after the spring spike along with quotes like the above from the ONS, "In August 2020, seven of the 10 leading causes of death were significantly below the five-year average for England (Figure 3)."  The areas between the curves show that this view is incorrect.

Deaths from an infectious disease are "brought forward", but here I would expect the under-shoot caused to be smeared out over a long period of time - consistent with the suggested average of ~10 years life lost with each Covid19 death.

More related to the original post, I've combined the number of deaths posted by @Democorruptcy with the demographics of England and Wales to get a %age dead per age band (so far).  For my age group it's currently around 0.02% or 1 in 5000 - not exactly terrifying!

PercentDead.png.1c001f6d7ea2ddc90210fcacb8ad30e1.png

Starting the thread wasn't to suggest covid was terrifying. It was to highlight how few younger people have died. It's a stat I've never heard mentioned in the media.

I think our 'protect the NHS' was the wrong message, led to unnecessary deaths in care homes and made the virus look worse. Problem is it looks like we are going to do it again and not protect care homes.

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5 minutes ago, Libspero said:

I’m very surprised that’s the average.

Especially when the average age of Covid deaths seems to be about 80.  And the average life expectancy seems to be about 80.

Accepted,  the figures are probably offset somewhat by the vast number of carehome / hospital cases. If it had spread much more widely in the population I could believe the average would be a bit lower.

Or years lost extended by those under say 76...a rough guess of averaged male and female life expetancy. Smaller numbers but perhaps enough maths to sway. No maths from me. Just conjecture. 

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15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Starting the thread wasn't to suggest covid was terrifying. It was to highlight how few younger people have died. It's a stat I've never heard mentioned in the media.

I think our 'protect the NHS' was the wrong message, led to unnecessary deaths in care homes and made the virus look worse. Problem is it looks like we are going to do it again and not protect care homes.

A nameless anecdote. I saw someone 15 days back in an environment no one other than staff were allowed. No visitors for 4 weeks. They had been there for 4 weeks. Late 80s. Query COVID positive. Next door formal case.

No staff recognised me. All new. All sent home. I didnt know that then untill I got it out of a colleague.

Person I saw dead a week later. Had some physical issues but stable. A Week. Dead. Looked well physically at the point I saw them.

Only way its got back in is via staff. An opinion of course.

They appear ruthless on their PPE. Small proviso. No FPP3 apparent for confirmed CV. The staff were very upset as they lost several folk in March. Yes..CV or not..well lets just say it appeared to be the straw that broke the camels back for most. To note I am describing high risk later life people here and not directing it to a wider younger target.

Some care homes are very good. Dedicated routine staff. Dosent stop accidental carriers but reduces increased contact from bank staff. These places refuse bank staff.

Bear in mind, I am talking of confirmed, vulnerable high likely viral loads here. Not the shopping experience scenario.

Had to be by staff. I wont say more as its yet to hit the fan and is..hushed.

Edited by The Grey Man
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46 minutes ago, Libspero said:

I’m very surprised that’s the average.

Especially when the average age of Covid deaths seems to be about 80.  And the average life expectancy seems to be about 80.

Accepted,  the figures are probably offset somewhat by the vast number of carehome / hospital cases. If it had spread much more widely in the population I could believe the average would be a bit lower.

Life expectancy at 80 is not 0.

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1 hour ago, The Grey Man said:

A nameless anecdote. I saw someone 15 days back in an environment no one other than staff were allowed. No visitors for 4 weeks. They had been there for 4 weeks. Late 80s. Query COVID positive. Next door formal case.

No staff recognised me. All new. All sent home. I didnt know that then untill I got it out of a colleague.

Person I saw dead a week later. Had some physical issues but stable. A Week. Dead. Looked well physically at the point I saw them.

Only way its got back in is via staff. An opinion of course.

They appear ruthless on their PPE. Small proviso. No FPP3 apparent for confirmed CV. The staff were very upset as they lost several folk in March. Yes..CV or not..well lets just say it appeared to be the straw that broke the camels back for most. To note I am describing high risk later life people here and not directing it to a wider younger target.

Some care homes are very good. Dedicated routine staff. Dosent stop accidental carriers but reduces increased contact from bank staff. These places refuse bank staff.

Bear in mind, I am talking of confirmed, vulnerable high likely viral loads here. Not the shopping experience scenario.

Had to be by staff. I wont say more as its yet to hit the fan and is..hushed.

The problem I'm hearing now is tests taken in care homes are taking too long to come back.

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13 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

And..in hospitals..they often do two tests if in doubt. Not seen in care homes.

Care homes..I know private..should be under a more formal umbrella.

 

Are you calling for the nationalisation of care homes?

They'll be shitter and more expensive.and did I mention shitter.

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53 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Are you calling for the nationalisation of care homes?

They'll be shitter and more expensive.and did I mention shitter.

No way. Not my view at all

Just the PPE issues and practice methods should be sourced from leading units.

Most carehomes were and are still asking for guidance in this current environment.

I had been dropping hints and compliments way before the virus this to those involved.

Most care homes will listen. The central good practice hospitasl need to take the lead. Its in all their interests..virus or not.

 

Edited by The Grey Man
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