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House Prices Aug 2020


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We live in a mad world right now, technically the economy is in the worst state for the last 70 years with worse to come. Normally house growth and good living standards come with a strong economy , now a strong expensive housing market comes from something I don't fully understand.

We have a system in the UK now that is the most perverse welfare system ever where the richest because they were the richest before(pre C-19) continue to be richest unrelated to what they now contribute to the UK financially and the poorest now remain the poorest with close to zero chance of climbing out of that position and bettering themselves. It's like a mass catastrophe like a meteor hitting Earth and ending civilization and putting all the people remaining on an equal footing, yet some in leadership makes the decision that those who were successful before will have the majority of the survival supplies,

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Democorruptcy
11 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

310,000 individuals with taxable income of at least £160,000 as reported to HMRC. This is the top 1%.

I'd say that makes well over a million on £100k very likely.

Edit: found HMRC stats for 2017-18, 392,000 additional rate taxpayers (taxable income over £150k)

I know people who make £100k gambling but they don't show up in HMRC stats. Drugs and other crime?

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24 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

We live in a mad world right now, technically the economy is in the worst state for the last 70 years with worse to come. Normally house growth and good living standards come with a strong economy , now a strong expensive housing market comes from something I don't fully understand.

We have a system in the UK now that is the most perverse welfare system ever where the richest because they were the richest before(pre C-19) continue to be richest unrelated to what they now contribute to the UK financially and the poorest now remain the poorest with close to zero chance of climbing out of that position and bettering themselves. It's like a mass catastrophe like a meteor hitting Earth and ending civilization and putting all the people remaining on an equal footing, yet some in leadership makes the decision that those who were successful before will have the majority of the survival supplies,

I’ll fix that for you. The ‘poor’ bracket are the working class which now is ever encroaching on the erosion of wealth from the middle earning PAYE tax payers.

Unversal Credit with children, covers paying a house, a leased car and living expenses. More than any full time working youngster could ever hope to get. 

There’s one of two games to be in here, know how to maximise and fuck the system with zero contribution or the rich who offshore for tax avoidance. The real losers are the PAYE tax brigade and most don’t know it.

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30 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I know people who make £100k gambling but they don't show up in HMRC stats. Drugs and other crime?

I know Polish builders in the Cambridge area, not too sure now with C-19 who work in 7 + gangs and whose work is top class I might add and they are great lads, where they do say 3 or 4 months graft in the UK and then return to their great/amazing homes  in Poland for a month or two who work totally in cash.

Zero tax to the UK economy, I wonder what scale this is on

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Chewing Grass
1 minute ago, Sideysid said:

There’s one of two games to be in here, know how to maximise and fuck the system with zero contribution or the rich who offshore for tax avoidance. The real losers are the PAYE tax brigade and most don’t know it.

Have been running the numbers through for PAYE at 10K intervals between 20K and 70K and it is mind-expanding.

At 20K you can easily rig it to pay zero tax and it can be kept sensible with a decent pension contribution up to 50K after that it gets silly.

NI is the killer (if you take employers NI into consideration) get over 50K (hard work & long hours in most cases) and just over 50% of that extra effort goes straight into HMRCs pockets.

This is why overtime in the 1970s had to be paid at 1.5 & 2.0 times the hourly rate as extra hours otherwise you would be taking hour less per hour than normal for extra work so most grounded folk would not bother (unless desperate).

The above only applies to those who have to graft for a living, it is obviously different in government/management circles as the pay is just a number and in many cases irrelevant to the work actually done.

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4 hours ago, spygirl said:

Idiot Brown bumped up Gps from 50k -> 100K - to attract hard workers .....

Part of the plan to turn them into government bureaucrats.

I'm not saying they don't work hard but in general they had a reputation for hard working before idiot Brown interfered.

Edited by twocents
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6 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Have been running the numbers through for PAYE at 10K intervals between 20K and 70K and it is mind-expanding.

At 20K you can easily rig it to pay zero tax and it can be kept sensible with a decent pension contribution up to 50K after that it gets silly.

NI is the killer (if you take employers NI into consideration) get over 50K (hard work & long hours in most cases) and just over 50% of that extra effort goes straight into HMRCs pockets.

Thats right, the 30-50k region is the hell zone where you bear the brunt of all the higher marginal rates of tax, but are still somehow classified as well off so get fuck all help if anything goes wrong for most part as you most likely have enough savings to disqualify you form most benefits but not enough to feel really secure.

So really you need to be as far outside this zone as you can be on either end: minimal income and savings to get all the benefits on the low side or a cushy £100k plus job with lots of cash and investments on the other.

Now I am fortunate enough to be in the latter category currently but should things get tight or worse, I have no intention of ending up in the hell zone. The plan will be to have minimal living expenses, ideally a fully paid off house, and all the rest of my wealth in non qualifying (for means testing) assets and off grid cash or cash redeemable things such as physical gold, jewellery, bitcoin (of course). So I'll be claiming benefits and topping it up with my hidden loot. 

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13 hours ago, Sideysid said:

No doubt there’s plenty in the UK earning that and much more, it’s just they won’t be paying PAYE tax.

This. Millions of contractors currently take £732 a month PAYE and many multiples more in dividends.

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15 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Thats right, the 30-50k region is the hell zone where you bear the brunt of all the higher marginal rates of tax, but are still somehow classified as well off so get fuck all help if anything goes wrong for most part as you most likely have enough savings to disqualify you form most benefits but not enough to feel really secure.

So really you need to be as far outside this zone as you can be on either end: minimal income and savings to get all the benefits on the low side or a cushy £100k plus job with lots of cash and investments on the other.

Now I am fortunate enough to be in the latter category currently but should things get tight or worse, I have no intention of ending up in the hell zone. The plan will be to have minimal living expenses, ideally a fully paid off house, and all the rest of my wealth in non qualifying (for means testing) assets and off grid cash or cash redeemable things such as physical gold, jewellery, bitcoin (of course). So I'll be claiming benefits and topping it up with my hidden loot. 

Part of my problem is i do have some cash, simply because over the last few years, ive been wanting to upsize our house. If i was sorted residentially instead of a family in a shoebox,  i would probably do the same, off grid untraceable assets etc. But the risk of putting it all off grid is simply too much. Take the latest bitcoin crash as a evidence of the risk of putting all of your wealth off grid. If there were less risky solutions id be all ears.

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1 hour ago, Green Devil said:

 Take the latest bitcoin crash

10% drop in bitcoin a "crash" :D

OK I get that volatility is relatively high but that will get better as the market cap inceases.

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Truly genius article from Guardian.

As house prices soar and mortgages disappear, what can first-time buyers do?

.https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/04/as-house-prices-soar-and-mortgages-disappear-what-can-first-time-buyers-do

You plebs just cant think thru numbers like what a highly paid journo can.

4) Carry on renting and wait for prices to dip back again. This is a risky game to play. There is currently a “race for space”, with young families quitting cities to buy properties where they can work from home with more space and a good-sized garden. If you want to buy there, then get your skates on before prices rise further out of reach. But if your thing is a flat in the city centre, you can probably afford to be out of the market, save more deposit and see prices flatline or fall over the next year.

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On 04/09/2020 at 16:47, goldbug9999 said:

Thats right, the 30-50k region is the hell zone where you bear the brunt of all the higher marginal rates of tax, but are still somehow classified as well off so get fuck all help if anything goes wrong for most part as you most likely have enough savings to disqualify you form most benefits but not enough to feel really secure.

So really you need to be as far outside this zone as you can be on either end: minimal income and savings to get all the benefits on the low side or a cushy £100k plus job with lots of cash and investments on the other.

Now I am fortunate enough to be in the latter category currently but should things get tight or worse, I have no intention of ending up in the hell zone. The plan will be to have minimal living expenses, ideally a fully paid off house, and all the rest of my wealth in non qualifying (for means testing) assets and off grid cash or cash redeemable things such as physical gold, jewellery, bitcoin (of course). So I'll be claiming benefits and topping it up with my hidden loot. 

And too often I have seen people in that wage range who after decades of work and tax paying who when for the first time  lose their job and try claiming welfare and being justified in claiming compared with so many other lifetime ponces that have abused it, get hardly f*** all because they don't know all the tricks of the trade and by their very nature as hard working self sufficient people usually  get exploited and ripped off because they cannot fiddle the system like the Islamic pros do for example.

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6 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

10% drop in bitcoin a "crash" :D

OK I get that volatility is relatively high but that will get better as the market cap inceases.

Has happened  probably 100's of times over the years, I barely flinch now

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10 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

And too often I have seen people in that wage range who after decades of work and tax paying who when for the first time  lose their job and try claiming welfare and being justified in claiming compared with so many other lifetime ponces that have abused it, get hardly f*** all because they don't know all the tricks of the trade and by their very nature as hard working self sufficient people usually  get exploited and ripped off because they cannot fiddle the system like the Islamic pros do for example.

Should we have a thread on these tricks to enable those in this situation to maximise the benefits they've paid for?

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On 04/09/2020 at 09:28, haroldshand said:

The vast majority in the UK are  earning say between £20,000-£45,000 that are absolutely the back bone of our society, the ones that make it all work day to day. Yet these are the people who can barely afford a decent home, if they are single they can afford nothing. It is a winner take all situation where those on £100,000  plus take it all, never stops grating on me when I see people on great money already  buying a few hobby rabbit hutch BTL starter homes and taking 50% plus of the wages of those with the lowest paid jobs.

And then you have the other end of the scale where a bimbo 18 year old with 3 kids from 3 different Dads not on the scene is living rent free in housing paid by HB or a recently arrived Immigrant like the type that murdered those two woman and stuffed them in a freezer  and was convicted yesterday taking the potential housing that a 50 hour worker per week can not afford.

The UK's so called morals are totally f***ed

It's more 15k to 35k.

A few posters on this thread are making the gormless error/wishful thinking that I see daily around me, in terms of housing.

Selling your house is becoming a lottery.

 

Average person is on an average salary. That isn't a lot, in terms of average house prices. And 60% of the working will earn that average or less.

The magic era of 2000- 2008 is long gone. Net mortgage lending is shrinking. Theres prob more people paying off mortgages than fabs.

BoE is sticking to MMR.

Tax credits has destroyed a generation who might have worked. You will not get a mortgage is 30%+ of your income is bennies.

I'd love to see mortgage lending v probate by postcode. The numbers are going to be fun.

 

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4 hours ago, Option5 said:

Should we have a thread on these tricks to enable those in this situation to maximise the benefits they've paid for?

Just had a thought, we could start a website. Moneygrabbingsupermarket.com

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11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

10% drop in bitcoin a "crash" :D

OK I get that volatility is relatively high but that will get better as the market cap inceases.

12000 to 10000. 16%. And that's btc. It you have altcoins you're down 33% like me 😂

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On 04/09/2020 at 08:30, AlfredTheLittle said:

Pretty much all doctors will be on over £100k, even if not working full time.

Lots of middle management in London on over £100k, it's pretty standard in the large London firms.

As Spy said, incomes follow a curve, so if there are nearly 400,000 on over £150k, there will be many more between 100 - 150k. Plus, as Sideysid said, that is only the ones earning and declaring over £100k personally. There will be a fair few working through companies in software for example who won't be in the figures. 

 

We completed yesterday and funnily enough the house we bought was off a husband and wife who were both doctors working in surgery and far from propping up the Market they were selling up and renting after just two years of living at the house. Their excuse, they were being called out to surgery at two in the morning and were doing a reverse move from country to city. More on that later.

The first two in the chain required mortgages, the guy buying ours didn't and we didn't. But hell, the Nationwide dragged out the two at the bottom of the chain for 17 weeks, threatening to crash the whole thing; especially one which had a National Park locals only clause on it. Banks throwing money this time, nope they are scared shitless the crash is coming and only going with big deposits.

Back to the excuse for selling. Well the new neighbours ( the only ones we have really) left us a bottle of wine and a card. When we subsequently went round for coffee today it transpires that they had had a dispute with our vendor.xD Tbh the guy we bought off wasn't the sort of guy to cross, he'd have strung me up if we'd  pulled out. 

 

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6 hours ago, Option5 said:

Should we have a thread on these tricks to enable those in this situation to maximise the benefits they've paid for?

No it’s all myth a bullshit my x does not get 2850 a month and still can’t manage she doesn’t have Netflix sky a Disney and a dish washer and im

Not at hers geting fucked up on her sofa 

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On 04/09/2020 at 08:30, AlfredTheLittle said:

Pretty much all doctors will be on over £100k, even if not working full time.

Lots of middle management in London on over £100k, it's pretty standard in the large London firms.

As Spy said, incomes follow a curve, so if there are nearly 400,000 on over £150k, there will be many more between 100 - 150k. Plus, as Sideysid said, that is only the ones earning and declaring over £100k personally. There will be a fair few working through companies in software for example who won't be in the figures. 

 

There will be fuck all on 100-150k. UK pop is ~70m.

 

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability/modeling-distributions-of-data/normal-distributions-library/a/normal-distributions-review

Normal distributions have the following features:
  • symmetric bell shape
  • mean and median are equal; both located at the center of the distribution
  • ≈68%\approx68\%68%approximately equals, 68, percent of the data falls within 1111 standard deviation of the mean
  • ≈95%\approx95\%95%approximately equals, 95, percent of the data falls within 2222 standard deviations of the mean
  • ≈99.7%\approx99.7\%99.7%approximately equals, 99, point, 7, percent of the data falls within 3333 standard deviations of the mean
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7 hours ago, stokiescum said:

No it’s all myth a bullshit my x does not get 2850 a month and still can’t manage she doesn’t have Netflix sky a Disney and a dish washer and im

Not at hers geting fucked up on her sofa 

I dont thinks a pro, playing it right.

The women on old style TCs, 2 kids, tend to pull in 1500/m cash (incs 15h @ NMW)  plus the rent paid plus the extra- school meals, maybe a motability (autism is a hidden disability, apparently)

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Got this link from TOS

Its dead good.

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/North-West-London-salary-and-unemployment.html

 

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/York-salary-and-unemployment.html

 

The average donttell half the story.

You need to know how many people are getting 30%+ of their income in one for of benefet ot other.

For Scabby, Id doubt 50% of 20-65 are working FT.

About 50% are kids or 65+

Thats only leaving about ~25% of the pop actually working. And ost of those earn fuck all.

 

Theres another good way to detect if an area is low paid/high benefits:

https://www.payscale.com/research/UK/Location=Scarborough-England%3A-North-Yorkshire/Salary

Any area where I can guess low wage/high effective unemployment, theres always a high number of teaching assistants.

I likethis one:

Marketing Executive

£22k

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On 04/09/2020 at 08:56, haroldshand said:

We live in a mad world right now, technically the economy is in the worst state for the last 70 years with worse to come. Normally house growth and good living standards come with a strong economy , now a strong expensive housing market comes from something I don't fully understand.

We have a system in the UK now that is the most perverse welfare system ever where the richest because they were the richest before(pre C-19) continue to be richest unrelated to what they now contribute to the UK financially and the poorest now remain the poorest with close to zero chance of climbing out of that position and bettering themselves. It's like a mass catastrophe like a meteor hitting Earth and ending civilization and putting all the people remaining on an equal footing, yet some in leadership makes the decision that those who were successful before will have the majority of the survival supplies,

The only point I'd disagree with there is that as a result of the perverse welfare system the so called ''poorest'' have no desire whatsoever to climb out of that position and ''better themselves''

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