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House Prices Aug 2020


No One
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No One
3 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Absolutely. Ive given up ever moving to a detached in the UK. The prices have just gone totally bonkers. My next move will be overseas. 

I've began an interview process with a company in Germany. I'm not willing to continue saving up for a house so that the cost of that house has literally increased by my yearly wage.

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Castlevania
46 minutes ago, No One said:

I've began an interview process with a company in Germany. I'm not willing to continue saving up for a house so that the cost of that house has literally increased by my yearly wage.

German house price inflation since Mario Draghi promised to do whatever it takes to save the Eurozone, makes British house price inflation look pedestrian. You’re looking at 150% in some places since 2013/14.

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Not everywhere is going up whatever Haliwide say.  Take a lookat Pimlico for any 7 day period recently and 50% of the properties (mainly flats) are reductions.  Prices there are eye-watering I know but they are falling and have been for some time.

I've noticed in several places I look at regularly that prices at the bottom are falling more than those higher up in the market and this will surely feed through to the upper echelons.  These are places in the south and I don't know what's happening up north.  That must be where all the price rises are happening as I'm not seeing them where I'm looking.

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No One
48 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

German house price inflation since Mario Draghi promised to do whatever it takes to save the Eurozone, makes British house price inflation look pedestrian. You’re looking at 150% in some places since 2013/14.

Where I'd potentially be going there are rentals 2 bed for 500 euro.

So not fussed. I'm not looking to buy there, just let the bubble pop in der UK.

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Green Devil
6 hours ago, No One said:

Where I'd potentially be going there are rentals 2 bed for 500 euro.

So not fussed. I'm not looking to buy there, just let the bubble pop in der UK.

I think this is the best policy. Go live cheaply abroad for a few years. Let the UK property bubble crash and burn.

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Green Devil
9 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Fred Harrison has re-emerged; and he usually talks sense.

First the bad news:

If Harrison's 18-year property forecast is to be believed, it would mean we are right at the beginning of the boom phase.

 

And then the good:

'House prices will peak in 2026 followed by a recession that will eclipse what happened in 2008.

'Then, everyone will be shocked, and people will wonder why they were not warned.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9601221/The-18-year-property-cycle-tips-house-price-boom-crash-2026.html

 

Moving this onto my personal timeline:

The start of the last big crash was 1998 with a bottom reached in 2006.

The start of this crash will be 2026 with the bottom reached 2034.

I was intending to move up to a significantly bigger house in the years 2032 - 2034 which looks to be perfect.

 

Cheers Fred, made my day :)

You have a few things that affect the bigger fools buying off you down the line. When things get silly then people will stop. When a terraced or semi is 350-400k, people will stop and think. When mortgages are 40 years, then 50 years, they'll stop and think. We're pretty close to that now price wise, but i think the 40-50-60 year loans could increase the prices significantly. And mortgages to pass to your children. Then it really becomes renting as you'll never own the property until 40, 50 or 60 years out. Like the new range rovers on PCP, cheap money means inflation and renting. It becomes what you can get each month rent wise out of your pay check, not what you can buy and own. And on the plus side, keep working, paying taxes, good for the gov coffers, but not for you etc.

 

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RickyBacker
3 hours ago, Green Devil said:

I think this is the best policy. Go live cheaply abroad for a few years. Let the UK property bubble crash and burn.

I tried that ten years ago when I moved to Asia to wait for the HPC. No regrets at all though.

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wherebee

I was economically uninformed in 2000-2007.  the GFC impacted me slightly, but I muddled through.  The last 10+ years have shown me how lucky I was; if TPTB had not kept the plates spinning by bailing out the banks, I would probably have been very very underwater if the system had been allowed to collapse.  I'm now what I call above average informed on economy and money.  And it has been a lifesaver.

The next GFC won't, I think, be stoppable unless they pull something like a free energy device out of the shadows to reset the available energy/price ratio.  It will see the collapse of several currencies, in my view, including possibly the US dollar, the UK pound, the Chinese RMB, and the Australian dollar.  It will see those without assets fucked sideways as food and other vital items become very very expensive.  I also see it as 2030+.  There should be a miniature fuckup in the mid 20's first, but that might be localised in one country or sector.

I can see Russian, Singaporean, and Swiss currencies appreciating massively (although Sing could go under if China gets military with neighbours).

for those looking to buy, as @Frank Hovis says, after the crash will be a wonderful time IF you have hard currency to buy with, as you'll both face a wall of desperate sellers and also know which areas to avoid (hint: in the UK, London will not be a nice place at all).

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