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Large pinch of salt being biased twitter anecdotal, suggestion that data is being manipulated to fit narrative. Not saying it's true but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility with the stronger push on official narrative and going on the offensive against the sceptic opinion that came with the 22 sept announcements. Not sure I agree with the Evening Standard angle but the London is curious:

 

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Yeah, doesn't really make that much sense that it's rising quickly elsewhere but London immune.

Probably I'm just foiling the image of London deliberately not wanting a lockdown and I'm wanting the fuckers locked down if less important places are.

Or could be they got hit so hard last time it's already done the worst (like new York?), or people taking more precaution because of it seeming so bad last time.

Weighing everything up not sure which makes more sense but tbf it's still early to call.  

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1 hour ago, Dogtania said:

Yeah, doesn't really make that much sense that it's rising quickly elsewhere but London immune.

Probably I'm just foiling the image of London deliberately not wanting a lockdown and I'm wanting the fuckers locked down if less important places are.

Or could be they got hit so hard last time it's already done the worst (like new York?), or people taking more precaution because of it seeming so bad last time.

Weighing everything up not sure which makes more sense but tbf it's still early to call.  

I think it’s not clear that it’s rising quickly elsewhere. The north east appeared to be locked down before the virus reached it in great numbers. 
But London seemed to have peaked or almost peaked when lockdown is brought in. There’s a lot more evidence that people have a level of cross immunity from earlier different coronavirus infections and different immune system responses. 
Whilst there might be small isolated outbreaks in London I suspect they will stop fairly quickly as there aren’t a large number of susceptible people to sustain the outbreak as there were in March or currently are in the north east. 

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9 minutes ago, Roger_Mellie said:

So werebgetti g about 10 deaths a day at 6000 'cases'. So staying from now, if every single person in the UK got it, we might get 100,000 deaths? 

Fucking hell, let's just get on with it. 

I think the plan is to get on wth it. Most will catch it and those that are vulnerable will die, SarsCov2 is coming for each of us.

What's the average hospitiisation before death?, I've no idea, I'll guess 3 weeks.

I think the plan is to try to stop all 100,000, if that's the number, from rocking up in the same 3 weeks, or rocking up when the NHS Covid19 beds are already full with other Covid19 vulnerable patients.

Now, if only we could seed it into nursing homes we could clear those out and use them as bed capacity for oldies to be discharged from hospital to and die; a sort of Covid19 terminal care - but people seem to have a problem with oldies dying of Covid19 in nursing homes too.

Edited by Hopeful
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5 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

It needs to get a wiggle on doesnt it? How many cases in the uk? How many are shonky?

I think it will get a wiggle on ;) although it's pace will be hindered slightly by all the measures we put in place, only slightly though unless it goes full lockdown and we each live in our own box. Patience xD 2-3 years to get through most of us.

Edited by Hopeful
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21 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

I think it will get a wiggle on ;) although it's pace will be hindered slightly by all the measures we put in place, only slightly though unless it goes full lockdown and we each live in our own box. Patience xD 2-3 years to get through most of us.

Patience? I'll say. Someone should have a word wiht our PM about the timescale.

The sound of sleeves being rolled up will be deafening.

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1 hour ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

I think it’s not clear that it’s rising quickly elsewhere. The north east appeared to be locked down before the virus reached it in great numbers. 
But London seemed to have peaked or almost peaked when lockdown is brought in. There’s a lot more evidence that people have a level of cross immunity from earlier different coronavirus infections and different immune system responses. 
Whilst there might be small isolated outbreaks in London I suspect they will stop fairly quickly as there aren’t a large number of susceptible people to sustain the outbreak as there were in March or currently are in the north east. 

Well if that follows and not sure I'd disagree, then the measures and wanton destruction of the economy are pretty astounding.  Obviously don't know what's going on behind the scenes but would be very interested evasedropping a conversation between witty and Boris.

Really looking like a shit show by if nothing else, reducing medical services, screening and treatment.  Clearly at a later date we'll be regaled by shock horror news at ten headlines that this is what happened (surprised no).

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7 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Patience? I'll say. Someone should have a word wiht our PM about the timescale.

The sound of sleeves being rolled up will be deafening.

4-6 months. If nothing has happened then we can get on,

But the caveat of course is whether we will know if any measures taken to reduce transmission made a difference. In the absence of that knowledge we could see those measures maintained unecessarily. Data from other diseases might give us a clue.

That's another reason for doing nothing at all, we'd find out the worse. I'd like to do that. But would the general public, they might in theory, but in practise?

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

4-6 months. If nothing has happened then we can get on,

But the caveat of course is whether we will know if any measures taken to reduce transmission made a difference. In the absence of that knowledge we could see those measures maintained unecessarily. Data from other diseases might give us a clue.

That's another reason for doing nothing at all, we'd find out the worse. I'd like to do that. But would the general public, they might in theory, but in practise?

 

 

Our lives are never going to be the same, whatever the virus does, or does not, do.

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4 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Our lives are never going to be the same, whatever the virus does, or does not, do.

I'd be inclined to agree, TPTB might like some of the restrictions or changes.

But I also wonder if I could be wrong. If we crack this could we come out of it better? Perhaps like the cancer patient that prior to cancer led a monotonous, dull and pointless life, but when in remission lives every day to the full.

OK, the economy is even more fekked xD

Edited by Hopeful
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1 hour ago, Hopeful said:

I think the plan is to get on wth it. Most will catch it and those that are vulnerable will die, SarsCov2 is coming for each of us.

What's the average hospitiisation before death?, I've no idea, I'll guess 3 weeks.

I think the plan is to try to stop all 100,000, if that's the number, from rocking up in the same 3 weeks, or rocking up when the NHS Covid19 beds are already full with other Covid19 vulnerable patients.

Now, if only we could seed it into nursing homes we could clear those out and use them as bed capacity for oldies to be discharged from hospital to and die; a sort of Covid19 terminal care - but people seem to have a problem with oldies dying of Covid19 in nursing homes too.

Thats not true though, is it?

Edited by Reck B
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3 minutes ago, Reck B said:

There was a certain excitement that life was about to change in the early weeks, but I think everyone is now... nah, fuck this

 

Thats not true though, is it?

perhaps not in the way wot I wrote it

If you will die if you catch Covid19 you will die, If Covid19 has your number your number is up

Buying time (flattening the curve) does enable treatments to develop that could save lives, so people previously on the death list might not be

Am I overlooking something?

 

Edited by Hopeful
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35 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

perhaps not in the way wot I wrote it

If you will die if you catch Covid19 you will die, If Covid19 has your number your number is up

Buying time (flattening the curve) does enable treatments to develop that could save lives, so people previously on the death list might not be

Am I overlooking something?

 

Yes - it's the amount of viral load you initial receive that seems to determine how likely you are to have a serious case from which you can die.

Edited by eek
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4 hours ago, eek said:

Yes - it's the amount of viral load you initial receive that seems to determine how likely you are to have a serious case from which you can die.

... and even then, you’ll probably have one or more specific type vulnerabilities and even under all of those conditions, it probably won’t kill you.

If the Covid-19 marketing department laid it out like that, which in my opinion is far closer to the truth, then people wouldn’t be so scared and pliable.

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