How many covid deaths per day in the UK before you would accept it wasn't over

[Balding Badger]

Opinion varies widely on here so I wondered how many of us would be prepared to put a figure on the level of deaths there would have to be for us to consider the pandemic an ongoing issue/not overblown/made-up?

[MrPin]

It IS over.

[Hopeful]

2 minutes ago, Balding Badger said:

Opinion varies widely on here so I wondered how many of us would be prepared to put a figure on the level of deaths there would have to be for us to consider the pandemic an ongoing issue/not overblown/made-up?

Being a bit pedantic, the number of deaths per day as an indicator depends upon the measures in place and the time of year, but I still voted (as if for winter with measures in place)

[Melchett]

I need context for this. Number of deaths per day from other causes would be an excellent start.

[Hopeful]

2 minutes ago, Melchett said:

I need context for this. Number of deaths per day from other causes would be an excellent start.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2019/publishedweek522019.xls

 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Melchett said:

I need context for this. Number of deaths per day from other causes would be an excellent start.

I posted this in another thread

Previous post shows 416 deaths with not of covid in 28 days.

Comparing other causes of deaths for the month of August

Dementia and Alzheimer's disease		>	3777
Ischaemic heart diseases		>	3618
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung		>	2049
Cerebrovascular diseases		>	1911
Chronic lower respiratory diseases		>	1517
Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus		>	1112
Symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions		>	951
Influenza and Pneumonia		>	913
Malignant neoplasms, primary of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue		>	853
Malignant neoplasm of prostate		>	757
			17458

[Bornagain]

If the people that die are all over the age of 80 then I don't care how many die per day - as long as we have sufficient resources to bury them all in a timely manner.

If it gets to the stage where we are bulldozing them into open pits and burning them, then it's too many.

[Melchett]

So 

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I posted this in another thread

Previous post shows 416 deaths with not of covid in 28 days.

Comparing other causes of deaths for the month of August

Dementia and Alzheimer's disease		>	3777
Ischaemic heart diseases		>	3618
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung		>	2049
Cerebrovascular diseases		>	1911
Chronic lower respiratory diseases		>	1517
Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus		>	1112
Symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions		>	951
Influenza and Pneumonia		>	913
Malignant neoplasms, primary of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue		>	853
Malignant neoplasm of prostate		>	757
			17458

so about 5 time’s the current level before it is even rivalling other respiratory diseases.... says it all.

Though I suspect this years figures for everything g else have been suppressed by being assigned to Covid.... so the 2020 figures would be a better comparator.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Melchett

[Hopeful]

9 minutes ago, Bornagain said:

If the people that die are all over the age of 80 then I don't care how many die per day - as long as we have sufficient resources to bury them all in a timely manner.

If it gets to the stage where we are bulldozing them into open pits and burning them, then it's too many.

 

8 minutes ago, Melchett said:

So 

so about 5 time’s the current level before it is even rivalling other respiratory diseases.... says it all.

 

I still don't think it was ever about the number of deaths first and foremost. I think it's just about the hospitilisation bit before death and the political fallout for any Government on the public's precious NHS.

The fact that deaths were allowed/encouraged in nursing homes says that to me.

As the public gets bored with the Covid19 restrictions they will be more sanguine about the NHS and the virus, and so the Government/MPs will feel more free to be bolder, as we may now be seeing with debate opening up among MPs about the public accepting the virus amongst us more willingly. The management of the public.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Hopeful

[ashestoashes]

death numbers don't matter it's when immediate family members die that it'll become real

[Libspero]

It depends too much on the circumstances.

If it is a couple weeks of 1000+ of exclusively terminally ill in care homes etc because we haven’t managed to protect them and the virus is running through them like wild fire..  like it did in March / April I’d say it’s unfortunate but an acceptable risk. It probably already happens with flu every year anyway.

If it’s 1000+ a day across all demographics with no end in sight and no hope for herd immunity..   then extra measures to slow it would be justified.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Libspero

[Libspero]

.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Libspero

[Hail the Tripod]

On 28/09/2020 at 07:39, Democorruptcy said:

Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus

I never knew my malignant anus could be fatal. 

[ashestoashes]

2 minutes ago, Hail the Tripod said:

I never knew my malignant anus could be fatal. 

you look after it, it's the only one you've got

[Malthus]

Excess deaths is the only useful statistic imho 

[XswampyX]

1 hour ago, Malthus said:

Excess deaths is the only useful statistic imho 

And here they are up to Week 38 (Sep. 14, 2020)

 

[sleepwello'nights]

10 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

And here they are up to Week 38 (Sep. 14, 2020)

 

The lockdown is saving lives. We need to have a stricter lockdown to save even more lives. 

[XswampyX]

1 minute ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The lockdown is saving lives. We need to have a stricter lockdown to save even more lives. 

Eh?

You can only move deaths on the chart to the left or to the right. They will be on there eventually as will all of us.

 

 

[sleepwello'nights]

2 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

Eh?

You can only move deaths on the chart to the left or to the right. They will be on there eventually as will all of us.

 

 

No your chart shows that excess deaths are lower now than they were earlier in the year, therefore the lockdown has reduced the number of excess deaths.

[One percent]

4 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

Eh?

You can only move deaths on the chart to the left or to the right. They will be on there eventually as will all of us.

 

 

Nope, not me. 

 

[XswampyX]

1 minute ago, sleepwello'nights said:

No your chart shows that excess deaths are lower now than they were earlier in the year, therefore the lockdown has reduced the number of excess deaths.

No. You can't die twice. The ones who are supposed to die today are already dead.

 

[sleepwello'nights]

Just now, XswampyX said:

No. You can't die twice. The ones who are supposed to die today are already dead.

 

If the excess deaths are lower now than they were then fewer people are dying than in earlier years. Therefore more people must be living longer. Proof indeed that the lockdown is making us live longer.

[XswampyX]

Just now, sleepwello'nights said:

If the excess deaths are lower now than they were then fewer people are dying than in earlier years. Therefore more people must be living longer. Proof indeed that the lockdown is making us live longer.

No. If I was supposed to die today but I was run over in 1980 then I wouldn't be in this years stats.

It's like saying WWII stopped millions of deaths in the following 70 years.... well it sort of did by killing them all in the 1940's.

[swiss_democracy_for_all]

1 minute ago, sleepwello'nights said:

If the excess deaths are lower now than they were then fewer people are dying than in earlier years. Therefore more people must be living longer. Proof indeed that the lockdown is making us live longer.

Define "live".

In the biological sense you may be correct. But if everyone's life is shit.......

[sleepwello'nights]

Just now, XswampyX said:

No. If I was supposed to die today but I was run over in 1980 then I wouldn't be in this years stats.

It's like saying WWII stopped millions of deaths in the following 70 years.... well it sort of did by killing them all in the 1940's.

That's one way of interpreting the numbers. I prefer my interpretation, we could all live longer if there was a stronger lockdown.