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Major outbreak in a Welsh Llantrisant Hospital, some wards now closed.


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News direct from a mate nearby, a major outbreak at Royal Glamorgan Hospital in Llantrisant. Reported as 82 cases confirmed, 8 dead, 6 in intensive care.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/coronavirus-royal-glamorgan-hospital-lockdown-19021087
Like mate says, this is serious and too close to home. Suddenly it's not abstract numbers somewhere else.

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5 hours ago, Andersen said:

News direct from a mate nearby, a major outbreak at Royal Glamorgan Hospital in Llantrisant. Reported as 82 cases confirmed, 8 dead, 6 in intensive care.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/coronavirus-royal-glamorgan-hospital-lockdown-19021087
Like mate says, this is serious and too close to home. Suddenly it's not abstract numbers somewhere else.

 

People's relaxed attitudes developed over summer will turn on a dime if this is not a one-off.

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5 hours ago, Andersen said:

News direct from a mate nearby, a major outbreak at Royal Glamorgan Hospital in Llantrisant. Reported as 82 cases confirmed, 8 dead, 6 in intensive care.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/coronavirus-royal-glamorgan-hospital-lockdown-19021087
Like mate says, this is serious and too close to home. Suddenly it's not abstract numbers somewhere else.

How old were they?

And why have you got a tick next to your rep count? @spunko

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20 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

 

People's relaxed attitudes developed over summer will turn on a dime if this is not a one-off.

A 10% death rate would certainly catch my attention.

If it was anywhere other than a hospital at least.

I think the main thing that has relaxed people’s attitudes is the lack of actual deaths in relative terms. Not the odd hundred here or there,  but actual percent level of population figures.  
 

Once the majority know someone close who has died the fear/severity will be palpable.   At 10% I would be amongst them.

We just aren’t seeing anything like it yet though..  despite the spike in cases.   This is very telling in the BBC reporting where they show the case levels over the past 6 months,  but have quietly dropped the corresponding death rate..  because it doesn’t look even remotely scary.  It’s practically flatlined near zero.

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3 minutes ago, Libspero said:

A 10% death rate would certainly catch my attention.

If it was anywhere other than a hospital at least.

I think the main thing that has relaxed people’s attitudes is the lack of actual deaths in relative terms. Not the odd hundred here or there,  but actual percent level of population figures.  
 

Once the majority know someone close who has died the fear/severity will be palpable.   At 10% I would be amongst them.

We just aren’t seeing anything like it yet though..  despite the spike in cases.   This is very telling in the BBC reporting where they show the case levels over the past 6 months,  but have quietly dropped the corresponding death rate..  because it doesn’t look even remotely scary.  It’s practically flatlined near zero.

I think that 10% in hospitals will grab attention. (I don;t think it will apporach anywhere near 10% outside, does anyone?).

Not htting the vulnerable yet IMO, just a matter of time.

Edited by Hopeful
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8 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

I think that 10% in hospitals will grab attention. (I don;t think it will apporach anywhere near 10% outside, does anyone?).

Not htting the vulnerable yet IMO, just a matter of time.


Agree 100%.  The hospital figures look very misleading / anomalous due to the particularly vulnerable nature of the victims.  I’m not sure death rates would even hit 1% in the wider population..  fewer if we protect the vulnerable (or they protect themselves).

But the reason the public aren’t worried is the government jumped the gun on the restrictions: they will probably pay for it in terms of popular support.

 

60-FF73-E6-F456-4-CDF-A4-B7-29771859-B70

 

Edited by Libspero
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The marvellous NHS super spreader strikes again. They need to get their infection numbers down at that hospital, maybe send some folk to care homes?

Quote

A total of 82 cases have been confirmed at the hospital, double the number a week earlier. Sixty of the patients are understood to have caught the virus in the hospital.

 

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3 hours ago, Libspero said:


Agree 100%.  The hospital figures look very misleading / anomalous due to the particularly vulnerable nature of the victims.  I’m not sure death rates would even hit 1% in the wider population..  fewer if we protect the vulnerable (or they protect themselves).

But the reason the public aren’t worried is the government jumped the gun on the restrictions: they will probably pay for it in terms of popular support.

 

60-FF73-E6-F456-4-CDF-A4-B7-29771859-B70

 

I don't think they jumped the gun - a stitch in tme saves nine

The Gompertz curve is slow to start, but once it takes off it takes off rapidly

That doesn't mean I agree with the nature of all the restrictions

They might have jumped the gun in the public's perception however, but that's due to a lack of understanding in the public in my personal opinion due the unfortunate effect of seasonality making it appear it have gone away, again my personal opinion.

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5 hours ago, Hopeful said:

 

People's relaxed attitudes developed over summer will turn on a dime if this is not a one-off.

If you cannot successfully silo hospital infrastructure from the virus then you can't run emergency/essential operations without accepting theft that you might bump of say 10% of patients - let alone having to run the hospitals under those conditions (i.e.high virus prevalence everywhere in the hospital).

(I picked out 10% before seeing others comment on that figure, seems to be realistic in the hospital situation, with all the immune system issues / ages ). Overall think the quoted 0.3/0.4% is nearer the mark, but depends on good medications - not confident on that front as PHE seem to spent more effort trying to rule out possible medications.  Bigger issue still might be the long term complications and that would be on top of the hospital mortality rates.

Kind of like what I drew from the Canadian SARS outbreak and was banging on for weeks about, hopeless situation if  you have a high mortality virus floating around the hospital infrastructure. 

 

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2 hours ago, Hopeful said:

the unfortunate effect of seasonality making it appear it have gone away, again my personal opinion.

The seasonality thing is a tough one for me to get my head around.  

South America, South Africa, Aus etc should all have just had their winter,  yet I don't recall them having particularly bad transmission relative to anywhere else?

To me it seems more like a  cycle of lock-down,  no lock down,  lock down, no lock down..  destined to repeat into eternity (or until vaccine).

I guess,  compared to locking everyone in their homes..  seasonality seems like it might be a relatively minor factor.   I'd like to see a controlled resurgence of the virus just to get it over and done with,  but it seems more likely we'll just seesaw from one lock down to the next into the middle of next year with no particularly large peaks in cases or deaths.    

I may need some sauce for my hat of course..

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8 minutes ago, Libspero said:

South America, South Africa, Aus etc should all have just had their winter,  yet I don't recall them having particularly bad transmission relative to anywhere else?

Probably a younger population, apart from that 116 year old South African gent who couldn't get his rolling tobacco because of lockdown rules, and subsequently died.

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24 minutes ago, MrPin said:

Probably a younger population, apart from that 116 year old South African gent who couldn't get his rolling tobacco because of lockdown rules, and subsequently died.

 

That would explain low death rates,   but not low transmission rates.   Unless we think Covid has gone through them like a dose of salts and nobody has really noticed O.o

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40 minutes ago, Libspero said:

The seasonality thing is a tough one for me to get my head around.  

South America, South Africa, Aus etc should all have just had their winter,  yet I don't recall them having particularly bad transmission relative to anywhere else?

To me it seems more like a  cycle of lock-down,  no lock down,  lock down, no lock down..  destined to repeat into eternity (or until vaccine).

I guess,  compared to locking everyone in their homes..  seasonality seems like it might be a relatively minor factor.   I'd like to see a controlled resurgence of the virus just to get it over and done with,  but it seems more likely we'll just seesaw from one lock down to the next into the middle of next year with no particularly large peaks in cases or deaths.    

I may need some sauce for my hat of course..

SA are at about 30' but we're at 51'
What affect does that have on their seasonality?

What is the difference between latitude, longitude and altitude? - Quora

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3 minutes ago, Libspero said:

 

That would explain low death rates,   but not low transmission rates.   Unless we think Covid has gone through them like a dose of salts and nobody has really noticed O.o

Questionable testing, even more questionable coverage of testing and reporting - just look at the hash of it made in the "developed" West.

Plus younger age groups generally, lower population density, much lower population overall than in northern hemisphere.

Could be a big factor - Common with other viruses / flu, there doesn't seem to be the quite the same hard bath tub curve seasonality in Southern hemisphere compared to Northern - this maybe reflects just the climate or other factors as well.

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12 minutes ago, Libspero said:

 

That would explain low death rates,   but not low transmission rates.   Unless we think Covid has gone through them like a dose of salts and nobody has really noticed O.o

That's probably the case. Without all this manic "testing", nobody knows whether they had it or not. That's how dangerous it is to the majority. The news headlines are tilting slowly away from panic, to just get on with it.

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29 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

SA are at about 30' but we're at 51'
What affect does that have on their seasonality?

What is the difference between latitude, longitude and altitude? - Quora

Interesting, I reckon dark skinned people should only live within 30 degrees either side of the equator due to their inability to synthesise enough Vit D which is how nature selected it through evolution millennia ago.

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1 hour ago, Libspero said:

The seasonality thing is a tough one for me to get my head around.  

South America, South Africa, Aus etc should all have just had their winter,  yet I don't recall them having particularly bad transmission relative to anywhere else?

To me it seems more like a  cycle of lock-down,  no lock down,  lock down, no lock down..  destined to repeat into eternity (or until vaccine).

I guess,  compared to locking everyone in their homes..  seasonality seems like it might be a relatively minor factor.   I'd like to see a controlled resurgence of the virus just to get it over and done with,  but it seems more likely we'll just seesaw from one lock down to the next into the middle of next year with no particularly large peaks in cases or deaths.    

I may need some sauce for my hat of course..

 

I think it is difficult to comare countries, their latitudinal position, customs, living conditions, population density will all play a role in transmission along with any 'seaonality'. Seasonality doesn't just affect the virus itself but alos how the host behaves.

To get a handle on Covid19 (I'm assuming transmission behaves seasonally as all other coronaviruses do so, but we don't know yet) then perhaps we should look at other seasonal viruses in the UK and how they also behave in different countries.

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Neighbour of mine had a private cataract op last month. The Swansea NHS hospitals are not doing ops at the moment and the local private hospital got block booked by the local NHS trust till the end of the year back in March. No one knows what is going on there from what I hear from a neighbour's son who is a Welsh Assembly senior bod.

Anyhow, my neighbour had to go to Llantristant for her cataract op at the private hospital there. A few days beforehand she had to go to the Royal Glamorgan hospital for a covid test - unless she passed it she could not have her op a few days later.

I am just wondering how many people have been travelling from all parts of Wales, and perthaps the West Country, to this hospital to have covid tests.

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