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Smart move by Boris and Dominic on 3 Tier lock down.


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I've been thinking about how this will play out, and today was one of the first pieces of evidence* that shows how he gets out of this one.

Well I say smart move, but it is probably clever. We can learn from our peers if such a situation arises in our personal lives/at work.

---

Boris was pretty much between a rock and a hard place after the first national lock down.

The science will always go for full lock down - he can't argue with the science or experts.

Then there was the Keir Starmer request for a full public independent enquiry over this pandemic and the government handling of it. Boris will be probably personally held to account over this. It will be his responsibility, and he can't resign either. Ever since Boris contracted coronavirus we probably felt he was visited by the 3 ghosts of the World Economic Forum, but that will be for another thread.

0_London-2012-Olympic-Games.jpg

^We only get Mr Serious Boris these days

So with the 3 Tier system, the government will work with local government to bring about lock down - this transfers responsibility away from Boris. This I think is really smart - almost as smart as Gordon Brown asking the HMRC to buy shares in the banks to save the world financial system. 

*Greater Manchester (GM) is fighting back against being raised to Tier 3 lock down which is the highest tier and the strictest. LINK

If GM refuse flat out to be raised to Tier 3, because they don't agree economically with the measures, then that responsibility of the outbreak locally will fall on local government. Although it does nothing for Boris fighting for personal freedoms for which conservatives voted in for, more like covering his own base. But at least the other side of the argument can at least be heard - it's been mostly about the science which has pretty much dominated how we are dealing with the pandemic.

Edited by 201p
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Ministers "are asking us to gamble our residents' jobs, homes and businesses and a large chunk of our economy on a strategy that their own experts tell them might not work," he told a press briefing.

"Greater Manchester, the Liverpool City Region and Lancashire are being set up as the canaries in the coal mine for an experimental regional lockdown strategy as an attempt to prevent the expense of what is truly needed."

He added: "This is an important moment. Greater Manchester will stand firm. We are fighting back for fairness and for the health of our people in the broadest sense."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54557823

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4 minutes ago, 201p said:

Ministers "are asking us to gamble our residents' jobs, homes and businesses and a large chunk of our economy on a strategy that their own experts tell them might not work," he told a press briefing.

"Greater Manchester, the Liverpool City Region and Lancashire are being set up as the canaries in the coal mine for an experimental regional lockdown strategy as an attempt to prevent the expense of what is truly needed."

He added: "This is an important moment. Greater Manchester will stand firm. We are fighting back for fairness and for the health of our people in the broadest sense."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54557823

Liverpool council leaders said much the same before last weekend. They were insisting furlough for workers needed increasing. They said they were "burning the midnight oil" to get a better deal. By Monday they had agreed a deal that did nothing extra about furlough but got the council £1 per constituent for High or £2 for Very High tiers. Clearly not enough to help workers but might just be enough for something else? Remind me to check their executive pay next annual report.

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2 hours ago, 201p said:

Ministers "are asking us to gamble our residents' jobs, homes and businesses and a large chunk of our economy on a strategy that their own experts tell them might not work," he told a press briefing.

"Greater Manchester, the Liverpool City Region and Lancashire are being set up as the canaries in the coal mine for an experimental regional lockdown strategy as an attempt to prevent the expense of what is truly needed."

He added: "This is an important moment. Greater Manchester will stand firm. We are fighting back for fairness and for the health of our people in the broadest sense."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54557823

So if their hospitals are overrun with Covid patients, they should expect no assistance or money from central government. Presumably.

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2 hours ago, 201p said:

I've been thinking about how this will play out, and today was one of the first pieces of evidence* that shows how he gets out of this one.

Well I say smart move, but it is probably clever. We can learn from our peers if such a situation arises in our personal lives/at work.

---

Boris was pretty much between a rock and a hard place after the first national lock down.

The science will always go for full lock down - he can't argue with the science or experts.

Then there was the Keir Starmer request for a full public independent enquiry over this pandemic and the government handling of it. Boris will be probably personally held to account over this. It will be his responsibility, and he can't resign either. Ever since Boris contracted coronavirus we probably felt he was visited by the 3 ghosts of the World Economic Forum, but that will be for another thread.

0_London-2012-Olympic-Games.jpg

^We only get Mr Serious Boris these days

So with the 3 Tier system, the government will work with local government to bring about lock down - this transfers responsibility away from Boris. This I think is really smart - almost as smart as Gordon Brown asking the HMRC to buy shares in the banks to save the world financial system. 

*Greater Manchester (GM) is fighting back against being raised to Tier 3 lock down which is the highest tier and the strictest. LINK

If GM refuse flat out to be raised to Tier 3, because they don't agree economically with the measures, then that responsibility of the outbreak locally will fall on local government. Although it does nothing for Boris fighting for personal freedoms for which conservatives voted in for, more like covering his own base. But at least the other side of the argument can at least be heard - it's been mostly about the science which has pretty much dominated how we are dealing with the pandemic.

I've been wondering this also. The tier system could be a way of offloading responsibilities onto local government as you say. And/or, it could be in order to 'divide and conquer'. If regulations are different all over the country it prevents people from feeling solidarity (I use that word in honour of the Poles) with others, making it harder to organise a national fightback. Instead it becomes relief, ie, 'Essex is locked down, thank heavens we're just over the border in Suffolk'. etc

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34 minutes ago, Errol said:

So if their hospitals are overrun with Covid patients, they should expect no assistance or money from central government. Presumably.

It is quite a clever set-up, really.  

They shouldn't expect any assistance, as it is all their own fault -- according to 'why all this is happening' (bad behaviours).  But it'll happen anyway, because that's the nature of the disease.

The problem for Burnham/Manchester (etc) is that they're not actually stating their anticipated progress of the disease at this point.  The clever thing to do would be to predict 'a bad outcome', but say that it wouldn't actually be any worse with an extreme lockdown.  Without this 'predicted outcome', no matter how bad it gets it'll be Burnham's fault.

Of course, the problem with this is that everyone believes that lockdown makes it better, hence saying it wouldn't be worse goes against the orthodoxy.

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5 minutes ago, dgul said:

It is quite a clever set-up, really.  

They shouldn't expect any assistance, as it is all their own fault -- according to 'why all this is happening' (bad behaviours).  But it'll happen anyway, because that's the nature of the disease.

The problem for Burnham/Manchester (etc) is that they're not actually stating their anticipated progress of the disease at this point.  The clever thing to do would be to predict 'a bad outcome', but say that it wouldn't actually be any worse with an extreme lockdown.  Without this 'predicted outcome', no matter how bad it gets it'll be Burnham's fault.

Of course, the problem with this is that everyone believes that lockdown makes it better, hence saying it wouldn't be worse goes against the orthodoxy.

If we are right that central government is trying to offload responsibility to local government, it does at least suggest that it is incompetence rather than malevolence which is behind all this Coronabollox. Eg, if it is all to do with some WHO/Bond villain plot, one would think that central government would want to organise and direct everything rather than putting it in the hands of doddery old Alderman Otterthwaite and Councillor Snodgrass of Pidlington Borough Council.

Edit: there's an apocalyptic novel, can't remember which one but I think it's by John Christopher, where just such a scenario arises. The government collapses because all the MPs have buggered off abroad or to their country retreats, and they declare that 'management of the crisis is now delegated to the relevant local authorities'.

Edited by Austin Allegro
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3 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-greater-manchester-infection-rates-19111720

 

Wigan sees its rate double in 12 days

Nine out of ten boroughs have seen further increases in their rates 

 

 

Like how they start the cases chart in march, but the hospital admissions chart in August.

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4 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-greater-manchester-infection-rates-19111720

 

Wigan sees its rate double in 12 days

Nine out of ten boroughs have seen further increases in their rates 

 

 

Wigan is apocalypse now when it comes to common sense and hygiene.

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I am going large on blind folds. Sod the nose and mouth bags.

By March eye protection will be needed.

Imagine looking at next years and beyond, council tax/ rates bill.

Someone said it here, this bill will be targeted. The purported shift of responsibility for financing local lockdowns is an indicator.

The Manchester issue is partly about this issue.

In my grovelling opinion.

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21 hours ago, 201p said:

I've been thinking about how this will play out, and today was one of the first pieces of evidence* that shows how he gets out of this one.

Well I say smart move, but it is probably clever. We can learn from our peers if such a situation arises in our personal lives/at work.

---

Boris was pretty much between a rock and a hard place after the first national lock down.

The science will always go for full lock down - he can't argue with the science or experts.

Then there was the Keir Starmer request for a full public independent enquiry over this pandemic and the government handling of it. Boris will be probably personally held to account over this. It will be his responsibility, and he can't resign either. Ever since Boris contracted coronavirus we probably felt he was visited by the 3 ghosts of the World Economic Forum, but that will be for another thread.

0_London-2012-Olympic-Games.jpg

^We only get Mr Serious Boris these days

So with the 3 Tier system, the government will work with local government to bring about lock down - this transfers responsibility away from Boris. This I think is really smart - almost as smart as Gordon Brown asking the HMRC to buy shares in the banks to save the world financial system. 

*Greater Manchester (GM) is fighting back against being raised to Tier 3 lock down which is the highest tier and the strictest. LINK

If GM refuse flat out to be raised to Tier 3, because they don't agree economically with the measures, then that responsibility of the outbreak locally will fall on local government. Although it does nothing for Boris fighting for personal freedoms for which conservatives voted in for, more like covering his own base. But at least the other side of the argument can at least be heard - it's been mostly about the science which has pretty much dominated how we are dealing with the pandemic.

This is very interesting analysis.

It does seem jarring how for 7 months central government have been deciding restrictions and financial packages, but the all of a sudden it's up to non-league equivalent councils who the government negotiate with.

I know Sadiq Khan has a bit more duristiction, but all other metro mayors are more like ceremonial charity finance roles, maybe with the authority to paint cycle lanes on the roads.

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17 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Wigan is apocalypse now when it comes to common sense and hygiene.

I regularly have to change trains in Wigan and that involved walking from one station to the other through the town centre. It doesn't feel like the sort of place where you want to take anything but the absolute shortest route.

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16 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

Someone said it here, this bill will be targeted. The purported shift of responsibility for financing local lockdowns is an indicator

I said it.

It's another reason why I'd never buy a big UK house. Too expensive and it's gonna be a way for them to get money-for-nothing out of you in the coming years as the state goes bust.

The councils were already bloated and had huge pension libilities before this shit kicked off; so they'll need more and more money.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyB said:

This is very interesting analysis.

It does seem jarring how for 7 months central government have been deciding restrictions and financial packages, but the all of a sudden it's up to non-league equivalent councils who the government negotiate with.

I know Sadiq Khan has a bit more duristiction, but all other metro mayors are more like ceremonial charity finance roles, maybe with the authority to paint cycle lanes on the roads.

Thinking positively, it could be part of a central government ploy to begin a gradual winding down of national regulations. If the PM and HM the Queen go on telly telling people we're in a crisis, people are likely to listen. If Emir Khan and various northern mayors that nobody has heard of pronounce things in their local newspaper, it doesn't hold quite the same weight. It's almost like making things a bye-law rather than a national law.

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1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

I said it.

It's another reason why I'd never buy a big UK house. Too expensive and it's gonna be a way for them to get money-for-nothing out of you in the coming years as the state goes bust.

The councils were already bloated and had huge pension libilities before this shit kicked off; so they'll need more and more money.

I have enough confidence in your prediction Joe to be using it beyond our DOSBODS ether world.

So far it seems to be like a penny dropping.

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50124099407_9565ceee07_o.jpg?format=jpg&width=1920&height=1080&fit=crop

^The SCIENCE SAYS SO!

Source: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/with-scientists-divided-it-s-time-for-politicians-to-decide

I think Sarah Bell linked to this picture initially - the body language does show that the science is controlling the discussions. In that situation you can dilute the voice with a few vocal big league mayors to tip the balance - IF that is what is going on.

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55 minutes ago, 201p said:

50124099407_9565ceee07_o.jpg?format=jpg&width=1920&height=1080&fit=crop

^The SCIENCE SAYS SO!

Source: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/with-scientists-divided-it-s-time-for-politicians-to-decide

I think Sarah Bell linked to this picture initially - the body language does show that the science is controlling the discussions. In that situation you can dilute the voice with a few vocal big league mayors to tip the balance - IF that is what is going on.

Agree, but rather it is doom-mongering, excessively risk averse government scientist managers dominating the discussion rather than science.

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1 hour ago, DownwardSpiral said:

Agree, but rather it is doom-mongering, excessively risk averse government scientist managers dominating the discussion rather than science.

2 hours ago, 201p said:

50124099407_9565ceee07_o.jpg?format=jpg&width=1920&height=1080&fit=crop

^The SCIENCE SAYS SO!

Source: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/with-scientists-divided-it-s-time-for-politicians-to-decide

I think Sarah Bell linked to this picture initially - the body language does show that the science is controlling the discussions. In that situation you can dilute the voice with a few vocal big league mayors to tip the balance - IF that is what is going on.

 

Who knows, The picture could be interpreted in many ways. "Do as I say or else", or simple frustration at a point not being understood.

I'd hope not the former. That's why I favour the latter. If I was there I'd lay out what I thought, might gesticulate a bit if the point wasn't understood and frustration took over, but once the point was understood I'd then say, "you do what you like".

It's not the place of scientists to determine policy. I wouldn't care an iota if my advice was ignored so long as I'd given it and it was understood.

Same reason I'll never argue, so long as I've given the information, that's enough. True story.  I was on the coast this afternoon and was watching a school of bluefin tuna through my binoculars. I'd been watching for at leaast 5-10 minutes. Another walker and his kid went past, stopped and said "What you looking at mate, anything interesting".

I replied, "Bluefin tuna, you can see them splashing even without binoculars, they're the size of a small cow, do you want to look?".

"Nah mate, they'll be dolphins we don't have bluefin tuna"

"Oh, thanks" I said and I left it at that. I felt sorry for the kid.

Edited by Hopeful
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