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Bitcoin, crypto generally, Central Banks Digital Currencies, System Resets, Wealth Preservation, controversies


Erewhon888

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spunko
2 hours ago, Caravan Monster said:

Just had an email from paypal advertising their not very enticing crypto services. Seems a strange time to be shilling such a thing.

I had an email from a reputable exchange telling me that if I deposit X amount by tomorrow they'll send me some of their token, basically they are shilling their coin to bump up the books and even admit it in the email. I panic sold most of me ETH soon after , but I don't regret it.

Good luck to any one still holding but I'm (mostly) out, at least for a few weeks. Always take profits when you can :Old:

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

That's a big difference.  I much prefer the NI system as council tax should be a straight property tax.

Rates are only payable by the LL when a property is under a certain capital value iirc. It does appear the capital values are based on historic values and haven't had a re-rate in a while. Perhaps something to consider. We also get water within the annual rates bill. Plus a 4% discount for paying up front.

Edited by A_P
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14 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

The question is do you buy more house than you need at the moment.

 

personally if I was going to buy I would buy as much house as you need/would like.

I think your buying decision could be simplified rather being what appears to be mostly financially based.

Is my life going to change significantly in:

<5 years - DO NOT BUY

5-7 years - Probably Buy

>7 years - Definitely Buy

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10 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I swear on my Mothers resting place that I am not trying to convince you of anything:) , it bothers me not what anyone else wants to do in this game. But right now as the saying goes "when everyone is fearful"....... you know the rest.

The bears are out and are feeding like crazy. Personally I'm quite agnostic on the OG "cryptos" these days. It has done a lot of heavy lifting for me, particularly XMR. However, since the last bull run, the scamdemic and now the Ukraine narrative, I would not be surprised if it gets wiped out in lieu of CBDC's at some point. You can imagine what kind of weighting that now has in our balanced portfolio. Which will make it much easier when re-balance time comes.

We supposedly have a large number of long term cycle investors on the board. The impression I get is the opposite. Far too many watching the tape, trading in and out. Impossible to keep up with it all. I always like to remind myself of the two main points at a juncture like this. The best performing accounts are inactive or dead. Secondly, a asset class blanket, something like this:

2021-Asset-Class-Returns-Quilt.png

Ergo, stay the course

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Jesus Wept
11 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I swear on my Mothers resting place that I am not trying to convince you of anything:) , it bothers me not what anyone else wants to do in this game. But right now as the saying goes "when everyone is fearful"....... you know the rest.

Like I keep saying on here I don't really trade Btc though I do trade the alt coins when Btc is looking bullish because the simple fact is I don't have the skills and I suspect very few others truly have them either, I Hodl it is my version of £ cost averaging, and it has worked just fine as long as I keep holding my nerve like I have had to do a dozen plus times to see the 37x I have today ish. Leverage traders can get that in a few day trades but they will always come a cropper at some point.

But my one big thought when Btc was at 50k-60k was that it seemed that 90% of the analysis and expert wankers off YouTube like Bitboy(think that's right) and that skinny tosser Carl the Moon were all basically following the same mantra as were Millions of investors which was ...."It's going above $100,000 and then we should all get out before it falls sharply before it then begins it's upwards march again".

Tell me this then, who were the dumb **** with knowing that who were ever going to buy at $80k up?

Now we are back to how I  love it, nobody has a clue what it will do and it will rise or fall organically without the bullshit or until "everyone knows for sure what it will do" which will again lead to it doing the opposite.

Just a feeling, but $30k could well be the new $4k which was basically the good sound support it kept testing a couple of years ago before taking off, which might be next week or in 5 years

Or just like everyone else the above might be just  total bollocks:)

“Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me”.

 

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haroldshand
13 hours ago, nirvana said:

NAS is going down again....Rally over.....SELL! SELL! SELL! :P

Far too early yet to say if this £30k is support but I have noticed now all the chartists are keeping quite and I like that, when there are 100 out of 100 people saying the same thing about Btc it becomes volatile and when you get 100 different opinions it steadies down, I would be even cautious of a possible short squeeze now with some shorters.

One thing that cracks me up with Btc observers not in the game is why they go out of their way to hate and be negative on it, they flood to any source of discussion, it is the weirdest of things. There must be 10,000's of shares and derivatives out there many of which I just find I would not touch after researching and then just  leave it there, why on earth would you then constantly want to keep going back and commenting on the performance of something you have no skin in shouting Ponzi, tulips, south sea bubble  as if your cleverest person on the planet knowing about such things :)

The Ponzi(or tulip one even) one cracks me up as shows that most people have zero understanding of what they are remarking on, 99% of the media are hating on crypto  with negative press with most people in real life too terrified to touch it, so how on earth could you ever call it "everyone jumping on the band wagon" investing. Derivatives are what the planet needs to be frightened of, crypto is a tiny fraction of that market.

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haroldshand
2 hours ago, A_P said:

personally if I was going to buy I would buy as much house as you need/would like.

I think your buying decision could be simplified rather being what appears to be mostly financially based.

Is my life going to change significantly in:

<5 years - DO NOT BUY

5-7 years - Probably Buy

>7 years - Definitely Buy

People are looking at houses in far too much of an investment orientated way. I have owned homes most of my working life and am just out of the game in recent years after hitting a little adversity. There has never been a time I could never have returned to ownership but I am quite simply looking at property right now as the crappiest value for money going. I find it amusing when people suggest to me that buying another home right now is the best thing I could do with my money when I could think of a dozen better things for me personally.

 

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Frank Hovis
25 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

People are looking at houses in far too much of an investment orientated way. I have owned homes most of my working life and am just out of the game in recent years after hitting a little adversity. There has never been a time I could never have returned to ownership but I am quite simply looking at property right now as the crappiest value for money going. I find it amusing when people suggest to me that buying another home right now is the best thing I could do with my money when I could think of a dozen better things for me personally.

 

 

As I said it's the rent that you are saving; after the recent two years' mad rental rises mine would fetch at least £1,400 pcm = £16,800 per year.

That is a huge chunk of net income to be paying out, or not to be paying out.

Though as per @A_P it depends upon circumstances and I know that you were looking at moving abroad.  I didn't own for eighteen years because I never intended remaining where I was for more than five years at any time.

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haroldshand

Another thing to bare in mind is should Bitcoin ever fail and go to zero then the will be the end of that project or anything like it ever again for the next 100 years at least, it is impossible to copy or replace and why would anyone.

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haroldshand
3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

As I said it's the rent that you are saving; after the recent two years' mad rental rises mine would fetch at least £1,400 pcm = £16,800 per year.

That is a huge chunk of net income to be paying out, or not to be paying out.

Though as per @A_P it depends upon circumstances and I know that you were looking at moving abroad.  I didn't own for eighteen years because I never intended remaining where I was for more than five years at any time.

My comment was not directed at you by the way Frank:)

My Sister alone nags me about it on a daily basis. Right now I have a £1,200-£1,500 budget to rent in some really nice places, the Cambs village I have been at now for a few years is just great and I am well below my budget.

I am spending more time in Madeira come the end of this year with a view to recce central Portugal as much as I can, that could alter though depending in what happens with the UK property market. Quite frankly(no pun intended) I find it very amusing people lecturing about the value of my crypto investment and possible failings  when I have probably not exceeded 3% of real cash funds at it to get it started back in 2015 which just happened to turn into a beast and buying property where I seem to be looking at the most over priced waste of money going, £1,300 per month I can justify for now, laying out £350,000 plus  I cannot.

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haroldshand

I said I would dig this up a few days ago, it is not the one I was thinking of but it is pretty good. It is the 448 Bitcoin obituaries over the years from the MSM, my favourite ones were from 2015  when I started and the ones at the end of 2017, the latest is 5 days ago.

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

Yes and of course one day there is every chance they will eventually be right and this project is never heard of again, it can never be replaced.

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goldbug9999
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, haroldshand said:

why on earth would you then constantly want to keep going back and commenting on the performance of something you have no skin in 

Jealously of those who got in early and back rationalisation of their own decision not to do so. The most hilarious is a guy called "warlord" on ToS who even claims to have bought a lot of bitcoin back in 2012 or something and sold it a couple of years later for a merge profit because "everyone could see it wasn't going anywhere" and apparently the profits us long term holders are is all down to blind luck.

Edited by goldbug9999
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goldbug9999
Posted (edited)
On 13/05/2022 at 09:39, The Masked Tulip said:
I maintain that this has all been orchestrated to get people accustomed to cryptos for this is the end goal of the Great Reset - all digital currency with Blockchain so they can tax, absolutely every transaction. They will own your entire life! Let's get real here.

There is no such thing as a state/central bank "crypto" and never will be, in the same way as there is no such thing as a vegetarian sausage since the main defining property is a lack of central control just like the core ingredient of a sausage is meat, yes you can make a long tube of veg protein and colour it brown but its still not a sausage. The only change a CBDC represents is a shift of control of fiat money from private banks to central banks, it has nothing to do with bitcoin or crypto currencies. If anything the shift to CBDCs and the extra surveillance and censorship (and most likely money printing) that goes with it will make bitcoin even more desirable.

Edited by goldbug9999
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goldbug9999
8 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Far too early yet to say if this £30k is support but I have noticed now all the chartists are keeping quite and I like that, when there are 100 out of 100 people saying the same thing about Btc it becomes volatile and when you get 100 different opinions it steadies down, I would be even cautious of a possible short squeeze now with some shorters.

You dont introduce a new form of money into the economy and expect it to be a nice smooth ride to riches.

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goldbug9999
On 12/05/2022 at 21:19, Frank Hovis said:

This is like gold going to "the moon".  There is absolutely no intrinsic reason why this would happen.  And unlike gold, which is finite, crypto currencies are being created on a daily basis

Ah the Schiff fallacy - that alt coins dilute bitcoin, well if you look at http://coinmarketcap.com you can see:

Cryptos:  19,430 Exchanges:  526 Market Cap:  $1,259,544,123,720 24h Vol:  $91,670,700,350 Dominance:  BTC: 44.5% ETH: 19.3%ETH

So with getting on for 20 thousand coins created so far bitcoin still commands nearly 45% of the total market value, and of the remainder eth accounts for nearly half of that.. So I think we can say with reasonable certainty that the continued dilutive effects of new coins on bitcoin has asymptotically approached zero.

Quote

and national governments have stated that they will be setting up their own.  

No they wont be, you cant have a state controlled decentralised money, no such thing exists. All they are doing is transferring control of existing fiat currencies from private banks to central banks.

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haroldshand
22 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

You dont introduce a new form of money into the economy and expect it to be a nice smooth ride to riches.

I think what troubles many people about me is that I barely blink and the favourite thing said to me and my position is " but don't you ******" it could be worry, panic, re-evaluate, take profits(which I have done and no longer have one penny of mine in the game by the way). The odd thing with people and this is a strong feeling I get is that they want me to have sleepless nights.

My tactics are so simple and sensible, if anything I am far from a get rich quick Dude, I HODL. If you believe in the project and I do, which of course doesn't guarantee success. You have to imagine a graph from $0 to lets say $100,000, I got in at the $100's and lets say for argument sake you know it will get to that magic number and it's already got within 40% of it. isn't the safest thing to do is sit back and watch the hundreds of 10% to 90% falls that have taken place knowing that the trend is always up.

If I tried playing the trading game and get in and out "at the right times" chances are I would make a pigs ear of it, I do my trading on the likes of Binance and that's my fun time, I have been mostly out of that for several weeks now having had a great run on NEAR and several other coins, so I have been sensible with that.

Trouble(beautiful) thing about Bitcoin and this is the major reason I don't trade it like anything else is that on a drop of a hat and after a long quite spell it can just go and there is no quickly getting in there if you are out because you are already too late, it can double for no reason at all and then double again

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haroldshand
25 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

No they wont be, you cant have a state controlled decentralised money, no such thing exists. All they are doing is transferring control of existing fiat currencies from private banks to central banks.

I just cannot get this to click with people :)

"But governments or Joe Bloggs or whoever will just make their own" and straight away in their own quote they have already shown/proven that they cannot just develop their own de-centralised coin because of the fact it's THEIR'S.

Can they not get that??

OK a government might make "their own decentralised coin" if they were nuts, what would be the point though when all the hard work has already gone into making a successful one

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spunko
Posted (edited)

The most worrying thing about this crash this time is the lack of new entrants into the market, at others have said, when the dustman or the postman has bitcoin we are probably at the peak. This time there is little sign of any enthusiastic speculation. Many thought that Bitcoin and other cryptos would be a hedge against inflation. That has not occurred. While most currencies have been devaluing against real-world assets, cryptos have been falling in value faster. The theory that cryptos might provide a stable wealth store from the prying eyes of government started to decline some time ago as governments got better at tracking down cryptocurrencies too. 

I still think Ethereum is a safe bet for longevity and web3,  but that doesn't have much bearing on its price or performance. In other words if ETH went to 50 USD it (Ethereum network) would still be useful as if it was at 50000 USD.

Edited by spunko
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Funn3r
23 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

there is no such thing as a vegetarian sausage since [...]  the core ingredient of a sausage is meat, yes you can make a long tube of veg protein and colour it brown but its still not a sausage. 

I have never understood that opinion.  

Work's xmas lunch about three years ago was in a chain eatery pub and we had a very similar conversation when someone jumped on me and said how hypocritical, if you are a vegetarian why are you eating a burger which as everyone knows is a pale substitute for the meat you ought to be eating if you were a proper red-blooded male and not a soyboy. Or something like that. Hardly very xmassy but then again an amount of drink had been taken. This is after me ordering some sort of weird vege burger which I would never have looked at anyway if work hadn't taken me to a chain eatery and more importantly had been footing the bill.

I don't remember much due to drink taken on my part as well, however I think I stopped the conversation dead in its tracks by saying have you ever cut a cow open it is not full of flat round things like hockey pucks. There's no answer to that really is there? At home I frequently make what I call "fridge burgers" which means find stuff in fridge which is about to go off, mix it up with some nuts or lentils, "burgerise" it by pushing it into a round shape, then fry up.

TL;DR  - animal eaters don't own copyright on cylindrical shapes.

I was a late arrival to crypto and only got into it after I saw that you could miraculously buy, er, "stuff" with XMR, which is a fabulous coin in and of itself never mind investment prospects.  Banned by the FCA which to me is 1000% seal of approval. I then put a fair chunk into BTC because it was the only one I had heard of and thought the wild swings in price were "normal" and it was supposed to be like that!

I am a late arrival to stocks and shares as well and still dipping my toe in, but I still think it's a hoot when some stock goes down 2% and the headlines say "stock plunged!!!!1!!" 

I shall continue to hodl. All I really want to do is not so much ride cryptos to the moon but to diversify outside the increasingly shaky looking GBP.

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montecristo

I bought more various cryptos over the weekend.  Fucking brilliant prices.  See you in 3 years.  (next halving 2 years time).

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, spunko said:

The most worrying thing about this crash this time is the lack of new entrants into the market, at others have said, when the dustman or the postman has bitcoin we are probably at the peak. This time there is little sign of any enthusiastic speculation. Many thought that Bitcoin and other cryptos would be a hedge against inflation. That has not occurred. While most currencies have been devaluing against real-world assets, cryptos have been falling in value faster. The theory that cryptos might provide a stable wealth store from the prying eyes of government started to decline some time ago as governments got better at tracking down cryptocurrencies too. 

I still think Ethereum is a safe bet for longevity and web3,  but that doesn't have much bearing on its price or performance. In other words if ETH went to 50 USD it (Ethereum network) would still be useful as if it was at 50000 USD.

Was this you in 2018? The same argument is made after every crash. It's emotional but not logical. You're dismissing the needs of people who want to continue saving in to Bitcoin. Not everyone invested all their money at the absolute peak of the bubble. There's still loads of fiat on the sidelines looking for a home.

 

 

Screenshot 2022-05-15 at 6.51.26 PM.png

Edited by Joxer
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Funn3r
2 minutes ago, Uncle Buck Rogers said:

Please tell me that hodl does not simply mean hold!

If so, humanity truly is doomed.

Hodl means hold, but at a higher spiritual harmonic.

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spunko
2 hours ago, Joxer said:

Was this you in 2018? The same argument is made after every crash. It's emotional but not logical. You're dismissing the needs of people who want to continue saving in to Bitcoin. Not everyone invested all their money at the absolute peak of the bubble. There's still loads of fiat on the sidelines looking for a home.

That is an interesting term - needs - ! What needs do these people have? I haven't even seen it portrayed as some sort of basic right. What is the need here, to make money? To continue to rope new money in so that they can cash out at a profit?

I understand why holders want Bitcoin to succeed, I really do. But don't portray it as some sort of philanthropic venture. You are in it to make money, and you don't like naysayers who talk the market down. Fine.

 

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BurntBread
On 14/05/2022 at 18:55, haroldshand said:

If you believe in the project and I do

I believe in the project, too. By that, I mean I want there to be a decentralised financial system out of control of governments. All the mad actions of the last couple of years (I'm especially thinking of Canada) only confirm me in that desire.

Although I haven't yet bought any crypto, I'm thinking that what I should be doing is using crypto in transactions, rather than buying to hold. After all, it's not clear to me how to value a "currency" where almost everyone seems to want to use it for savings, rather than as a medium of exchange. I might make a guess as to the size of the crypto economy (mostly dodgy stuff*), and the quantity of money is known, but to get a price level, you need a velocity, and that looks to be pretty close to zero at the moment, but with no guarantee it won't change. That's why I'm suspicious of the coins as a store of value.

Anyway, that aside, since you believe in the project, are you trying to use crypto for ordinary transactions? That seems to me what the philosophical position should lead to?

 

* Which I mostly have no problem with.

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