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F4-D0-B2-B7-595-A-4-F0-D-B7-BF-3614-D79-
 

342-CFDFA-BB39-49-D8-B6-CF-16-E34629-F6-

 

So this is just global deaths vs global infections.

Allowing for death rates being more accurate,  and infections being better detected more recently..   I can only infer that either the global prevalence of Covid hasn’t changed since March,   or the virus is becoming less deadly (or more likely has already picked off the most vulnerable in the first wave).

Either way,  I find the almost perfectly flat death rate contrasting against the linearly increasing infection rate over the same period a bit bemusing.

Does anyone else have thoughts / theories on this?

Edited by Libspero
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5 hours ago, wherebee said:

https://covid19info.live/

 

even more visible there.

I suspect as more testing is done, more cases are found.  That pushes up the case numbers, but not the deaths.

 

Further, @Libsperothe graphs present global data and so the death numbers describe deaths in the two hemispheres, and as deaths rise in the northern hemisphere they may decline in the southern hemispshere and vice versa. (Also bear in mind that Covid19 came on the scene when the Northern hemisphere was in winter and the southern in Summer.) It might therefore be more illuminating to present deaths split by hemisphere? Further the amount of testing may not be affected by seasonality.

Edited by Hopeful
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8 hours ago, Libspero said:

F4-D0-B2-B7-595-A-4-F0-D-B7-BF-3614-D79-
 

342-CFDFA-BB39-49-D8-B6-CF-16-E34629-F6-

 

So this is just global deaths vs global infections.

Allowing for death rates being more accurate,  and infections being better detected more recently..   I can only infer that either the global prevalence of Covid hasn’t changed since March,   or the virus is becoming less deadly (or more likely has already picked off the most vulnerable in the first wave).

Either way,  I find the almost perfectly flat death rate contrasting against the linearly increasing infection rate over the same period a bit bemusing.

Does anyone else have thoughts / theories on this?

Widely used PCR test throws up as many false positives as real ones?

More random testing will find more asymptomatic cases?

Virus mutating to less virulent strain, as predicted?

Better treatment regimes?

Edited by Mirror Mirror
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5 hours ago, Libspero said:

I can't find that data anywhere unfortunately..  short of compiling country by country data and then plotting it.

 

Try here just scroll down most are interactive so you can chose what data is displayed country wise and in what format

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-covid-19-tests-per-confirmed-case-bar-chart?tab=table&time=2020-04-08..2020-09-07&country=~ESP

IMO it was plain to see the trajectory in Europe from july >

Edited by Long time lurking
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3 hours ago, Mirror Mirror said:

Widely used PCR test throws up as many false positives as real ones?

More random testing will find more asymptomatic cases?

Virus mutating to less virulent strain, as predicted?

Better treatment regimes?

IMO it`s a bit of all of that except maybe the different virus option plus the pandemic is all but over in the countries hit hard during the spring ,it`s just the outlying parts of each country that were not infected  in spring which are now paying the piper it will differ country to country 

Just look at London and the/SE/S./W compared to the N/ NE/NW as of the last month or so 

Edited by Long time lurking
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5 hours ago, Libspero said:

I can't find that data anywhere unfortunately..  short of compiling country by country data and then plotting it.

Neither can I, it's a shame, it would be interesting. It would be interesting to see if infection rates and deaths 'oscillate' or 'see-saw'

Edited by Hopeful
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I think the early high death rates in the UK especially were due to seeding care homes with corona by discharging infected from hospitals, then denying them basic medical care as they were deemed not to have a chance of survival. It's not clear and we'll never find out how many people actually died of or even with covid in March/April 2020, or how many were killed by negligence but have been listed as covid. 

Conversely I think a lot of the early deaths were due to the rush to ventilate people who were thought to have a chance of survival. A lot of these people were killed by being on the ventilator itself. 

Also people who are likely to have survived were denied treatment until they were very unwell. This young man appears to have been sacrificed in order to save the NHS. I think had he been given proper treatment and still died he would have been the poster boy for young, healthy, no pre-existing medical conditions covid case. But as it is very clear he would have had a much greater chance of survival if given medical treatment sooner, this case doesn't get the attention it should. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52115265

I think now the deaths are coming down as they're a lot better at treating people and they're actually trying to treat people. 

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5 hours ago, Mirror Mirror said:

Widely used PCR test throws up as many false positives as real ones?


There is a lot of talk of this, and it is the central supporting argument of the virologist guy who was taking Valance to task.

This should be fairly easy to prove..  but it isn’t.

If most of the cases are actually false positives, The there should be a near linear relationship between cases and tests..  in the order of one being around 1% of the other.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-total-confirmed-cases-vs-total-tests-conducted?time=latest&country=AUS~CAN~HRV~CYP~ETH~IND~KEN~KWT~LTU~NZL~PAK~RUS~KOR~LKA~TWN~URY
 

While there is some pattern suggesting this..  how can you explain outliers like Taiwan?

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10 minutes ago, Libspero said:


There is a lot of talk of this, and it is the central supporting argument of the virologist guy who was taking Valance to task.

This should be fairly easy to prove..  but it isn’t.

If most of the cases are actually false positives, The there should be a near linear relationship between cases and tests..  in the order of one being around 1% of the other.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-total-confirmed-cases-vs-total-tests-conducted?time=latest&country=AUS~CAN~HRV~CYP~ETH~IND~KEN~KWT~LTU~NZL~PAK~RUS~KOR~LKA~TWN~URY
 

While there is some pattern suggesting this..  how can you explain outliers like Taiwan?

I would think the variations can be explained by different testing regimes. If people are tested randomly, I would expect a lower rate of true positives than if people present themselves for testing because feel ill or because their app told them to.

As for proof required, what more do you need? It’s widely accepted that the PCR Test had a false positive rate of around 0.8%. Simple maths and statistics show that for real rates of infection in the community around 0.5%, the majority of positive results will be false.

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19 minutes ago, Mirror Mirror said:

As for proof required, what more do you need? It’s widely accepted that the PCR Test had a false positive rate of around 0.8%. Simple maths and statistics show that for real rates of infection in the community around 0.5%, the majority of positive results will be false.

I’m not trying to argue it is not true..  I don’t know enough to know either way.   I’m just saying some countries have a fairly significant variance either side of 0.5%.   I could accept that not many fall under 0.5% and perhaps Taiwan reconfirm any positive results with a second test.

Do you have a link to proof / evidence of the 0.5% argument just for my own understanding?

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6 minutes ago, Libspero said:

I’m not trying to argue it is not true..  I don’t know enough to know either way.   I’m just saying some countries have a fairly significant variance either side of 0.5%.   I could accept that not many fall under 0.5% and perhaps Taiwan reconfirm any positive results with a second test.

Do you have a link to proof / evidence of the 0.5% argument just for my own understanding?

No but I picked it as a conservative number for the purposes of my argument. Most countries seem to have plucked 50/100000 out of the air as a benchmark for when it’s getting serious. If this were the true level of infection (it’s not, it’s positive results including the false ones) then false positives would outnumber real positives by >10:1.

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1 minute ago, Mirror Mirror said:

No but I picked it as a conservative number for the purposes of my argument. Most countries seem to have plucked 50/100000 out of the air as a benchmark for when it’s getting serious. If this were the true level of infection (it’s not, it’s positive results including the false ones) then false positives would outnumber real positives by >10:1.

BBC claimed in an article I saw the other day that 1 in 130 have it. 

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13 minutes ago, eight said:

BBC claimed in an article I saw the other day that 1 in 130 have it. 

Well I expect they err on the high side for sensationalism and because they’re a bunch of twats.

But if that’s true, then it’s about the same ball park as the false positive rate, 0.8%, so 50%.

Edited by Mirror Mirror
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