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Was anyone waiting for a black swan event hoping it would re-balance a few things in the UK


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I doubt if many here had the same idea/plan as me over the last 4 or 5 years where they were waiting for a black swan event in the hope it would re_balance certain parts of the economy only to find it not working out as you had planned:).

If there are I would be interesting to know how you feel about it?

Sort of went to plan with me except  for one small partial  drawback, they gave a load of people who would have struggled more fucking free money than they had before Covid with the great free money giveaway by Sunak. This  year business wise has been as good as any in the last 5 years, had there been economic stress within some of the markets I would have done OK.

Now what :)?

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I was surprised just how much they turned on the money printing. I mean 80% of salary. For doing nothing? Not even means tested (like everything else in this country). Just how quickly the money print

Anyone remember the cute little global credit crunch when printing money was scary and news worthy?   Not any more..  it’s just a question of how much do we print today:   Free money for

This. When working yields no tangible benefits over not working (and right now, no amount of extra work will buy me the sort of house I want to live in), I turn my efforts to gaining "wealth" tha

11 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Black Swans have been and gone, they got Chinese Bird Flu and died.

https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2020-11-12/devon-towns-iconic-black-swans-die-from-bird-flu

Inflation, currency crisis, bankruptcies on or around quarter day.

Still not ruled it out, but starting  to look like they will do anything to keep those plates spinning

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2 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I doubt if many here had the same idea/plan as me over the last 4 or 5 years where they were waiting for a black swan event in the hope it would re_balance certain parts of the economy only to find it not working out as you had planned:).

If there are I would be interesting to know how you feel about it?

Sort of went to plan with me except  for one small partial  drawback, they gave a load of people who would have struggled more fucking free money than they had before Covid with the great free money giveaway by Sunak. This  year business wise has been as good as any in the last 5 years, had there been economic stress within some of the markets I would have done OK.

Now what :)?

I was surprised just how much they turned on the money printing. I mean 80% of salary. For doing nothing? Not even means tested (like everything else in this country). Just how quickly the money printing started and the scale of it worldwide really makes me think it was orchestrated to a degree. 

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28 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

I was surprised just how much they turned on the money printing. 

Anyone remember the cute little global credit crunch when printing money was scary and news worthy?   Not any more..  it’s just a question of how much do we print today:

9-C53-A120-BF30-4-E70-9742-4915-C801-ABB
 

Free money for everyone..

522cfaf8-856b-444c-9005-dc58c9c15b50

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Nope.

I've been saying for around 10 years that there will be no event that can't be overcome with yet more QE and ZIRP. 

Obviously it will ultimately lead to the complete collapse of the whole fiat money system but I doubt I'll live long enough to witness it, they can carry on this charade for decades.

Edited by Royston
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3 hours ago, Royston said:

Obviously it will ultimately lead to the complete collapse of the whole fiat money system but I doubt I'll live long enough to witness it, they can carry on this charade for decades.

This seems wrong to me (I expected total debt to be higher),  but as far as I can tell our current total national debt is £2tn.   Our total QE is running at £1.9tn now.    So effectively we are becoming the sole purchasers of our own money/debt.  
 

Sure,  it might go on forever,  and perhaps other countries are in a similar boat..  but that just screams Weimar Republic to me :/

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7 hours ago, Green Devil said:

I was surprised just how much they turned on the money printing. I mean 80% of salary. For doing nothing? Not even means tested (like everything else in this country). Just how quickly the money printing started and the scale of it worldwide really makes me think it was orchestrated to a degree. 

It's really not hard to spot the signs that this is being massively abused, this is our introduction of a once magical welfare system in the 1950's that really helped those in troubled times which was only slightly abused to becoming totally abused , but this is on steroids.

There was a time when people in the UK just put into society and were grateful for a safety next in hard times, now we have so many takers who get whatever they can out of system with no moral compass

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6 hours ago, Libspero said:

Anyone remember the cute little global credit crunch when printing money was scary and news worthy?   Not any more..  it’s just a question of how much do we print today:

9-C53-A120-BF30-4-E70-9742-4915-C801-ABB
 

Free money for everyone..

522cfaf8-856b-444c-9005-dc58c9c15b50

Gordon Brown was once rightly hammered for selling our gold on the cheap and rightly so.

But that is nothing compared to maxing out the UK credit card close to the point where we can barely borrow no more for the next 100 years

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27 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

But that is nothing compared to maxing out the UK credit card close to the point where we can barely borrow no more for the next 100 years

I think you may be suprised at how much more the government can borrow...

Over the last 12 years, our Governments (of whatever flavour) have aquired a borrowing habit - they have become addicted to borrowing as it solves the problems of today and leaves the repayment to the generation of tommorrow (AKA our children) - by which time the current politicans will have collected their knighthood and fucked off to directorships of FTSE companies.

Every now and then Gordon Brown and Tony Blair pop up to tell us how the country should be run, conveniently forgetting that between them they fucked the country pretty much forever with their working tax credits and large scale immigration.  Just about every piece of advice they come up with requires the government to spend a shit-load-of-cash - which obviously has to be borrowed (from our kids)

Cunts.

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3 hours ago, Royston said:

Nope.

I've been saying for around 10 years that there will be no event that can't be overcome with yet more QE and ZIRP. 

Obviously it will ultimately lead to the complete collapse of the whole fiat money system but I doubt I'll live long enough to witness it, they can carry on this charade for decades.

I mostly agree as long as the pack mentality continues amongst major economies where the government borrowing is all happening in similar fashion.

If however there become cracks in that consensus and some start becoming financially prudent then the QE countries will find themselves paying increasing interest rates because their currencies will be sinking rather than keeping pace with the pack.

This sinking will lead to higher inflation which itself will lead to higher interest and kaboom: all those frozen years of keeping the plates spinning will pour through economy and seep out of the pores.

Of course if everyone carries down the same path: nothing to see here.

I would say though that the UK is particularly exposed to this because successive governments have shown an unwillingness to cut spending and the Covid largesse, for most, has been phenomenal (80% of wages for doing nothing for a whole year? Ambassador with these Ferrera Roche you are spoiling us!).

And when it happens it happens quickly and the government can do little about it as we saw during sterling's fallout from the ERM when interest rates were kicked up to 15% and that still wasn't enough.

Interest rates of 15%.

Well wouldn't that have an interesting effect upon house prices.

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31 minutes ago, Bornagain said:

I think you may be suprised at how much more the government can borrow...

Over the last 12 years, our Governments (of whatever flavour) have aquired a borrowing habit - they have become addicted to borrowing as it solves the problems of today and leaves the repayment to the generation of tommorrow (AKA our children) - by which time the current politicans will have collected their knighthood and fucked off to directorships of FTSE companies.

Every now and then Gordon Brown and Tony Blair pop up to tell us how the country should be run, conveniently forgetting that between them they fucked the country pretty much forever with their working tax credits and large scale immigration.  Just about every piece of advice they come up with requires the government to spend a shit-load-of-cash - which obviously has to be borrowed (from our kids)

Cunts.

All you do is reduce the interest rates to zero, then You can just borrow as much as you want. 

Even better, set interest rates to negative and you actually get paid to borrow. Genius! 

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4 hours ago, Royston said:

Obviously it will ultimately lead to the complete collapse of the whole fiat money system but I doubt I'll live long enough to witness it, they can carry on this charade for decades.

One more decade, according to the folk in the basement, before they run out of choices ... but with the effects of increasing inflation starting to show up within the next year or two, and then building steadily. I'm already seeing food inflation, and phone bills are being allowed by the regulator to go up next year. As Frank says, probably double-digit inflation before the end of the decade.

32 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I mostly agree as long as the pack mentality continues amongst major economies where the government borrowing is all happening in similar fashion.

If however there become cracks in that consensus and some start becoming financially prudent then the QE countries will find themselves paying increasing interest rates because their currencies will be sinking rather than keeping pace with the pack.

"Complete consensus" is a very unstable equilibrium. I doubt China, for example, would keep exactly the same policy as the US, and since lots of countries came into this crisis with very different financial positions, it seems to me that they can't all keep on the same track indefinitely. Somebody is going to be the worst-looking horse in the glue factory and will be first into the rendering vats.

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15 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

All you do is reduce the interest rates to zero, then You can just borrow as much as you want. 

Even better, set interest rates to negative and you actually get paid to borrow. Genius! 

Which is fine if you can persuade anybody to buy lend you money.....

 

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10 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I doubt if many here had the same idea/plan as me over the last 4 or 5 years where they were waiting for a black swan event in the hope it would re_balance certain parts of the economy only to find it not working out as you had planned:).

If there are I would be interesting to know how you feel about it?

Sort of went to plan with me except  for one small partial  drawback, they gave a load of people who would have struggled more fucking free money than they had before Covid with the great free money giveaway by Sunak. This  year business wise has been as good as any in the last 5 years, had there been economic stress within some of the markets I would have done OK.

Now what :)?

I've had no income this year, it disappeared when Covid arrived

I've had the £10k from the local council and SEISS. Not spent a penny of it. We've cut back our cloth instead. They can have their helicopter money back tomorrow. Just dont take my hard-earned.

 

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10 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

All you do is reduce the interest rates to zero, then You can just borrow as much as you want. 

Even better, set interest rates to negative and you actually get paid to borrow. Genius! 

That's what they have done.  The plates can keep spinning apparently for some time... Firstly every other county doing the same and secondly doesn't seem like any other option at this point.

So is it one last hurrah, stretch it as far as possible then bang, suddenly debt out of control, any change in interest rate seen as risk to very fragile system..... In for the rescue a great new restart/ reset.  Introduction of new digital money by the central banks?

Lots of talk about this MMT magic money tree school of thought.  Especially getting called for by the far left.  Not an economist but surely too good to be true or is alchemy possible.  I guess the illusion of it can be carried off for a while but one day Piper needs paying.  Gravity still exists etc we don't live in a fairy tale yet?

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8 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

One more decade, according to the folk in the basement, before they run out of choices ... but with the effects of increasing inflation starting to show up within the next year or two, and then building steadily. I'm already seeing food inflation, and phone bills are being allowed by the regulator to go up next year. As Frank says, probably double-digit inflation before the end of the decade.

"Complete consensus" is a very unstable equilibrium. I doubt China, for example, would keep exactly the same policy as the US, and since lots of countries came into this crisis with very different financial positions, it seems to me that they can't all keep on the same track indefinitely. Somebody is going to be the worst-looking horse in the glue factory and will be first into the rendering vats.

Yes.

I think it may well be us unless the EU implodes first and then it's Greece, Spain and Italy.

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40 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

 

Lots of talk about this MMT magic money tree school of thought.  Especially getting called for by the far left.  Not an economist but surely too good to be true or is alchemy possible.  I guess the illusion of it can be carried off for a while but one day Piper needs paying. 

If printing money provides wealth, why demand taxes?

If printing money works, why work?

Oh yeah. We need goods and services - true wealth - to be created and a reward system encouraging wealth creation.

We are smack in the middle of 'reward for less' and the only solution is more currency provided by no work. Full of value, that.

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44 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

That's what they have done.  The plates can keep spinning apparently for some time... Firstly every other county doing the same and secondly doesn't seem like any other option at this point.

So is it one last hurrah, stretch it as far as possible then bang, suddenly debt out of control, any change in interest rate seen as risk to very fragile system..... In for the rescue a great new restart/ reset.  Introduction of new digital money by the central banks?

Lots of talk about this MMT magic money tree school of thought.  Especially getting called for by the far left.  Not an economist but surely too good to be true or is alchemy possible.  I guess the illusion of it can be carried off for a while but one day Piper needs paying.  Gravity still exists etc we don't live in a fairy tale yet?

Indeed, a centrally created and printed magical IMF digital currency. All the ailing economies can get enough fiat as they want, by buying IMF bonds against their worthless fiat, all at negative rates (set by the imf depending on mates rates) and all printed by the IMF using the magic money tree and paid to the government in situ as negative interest on their loans.

What could possibly go wrong?

Apart from those people that are paid in worthless local fiat inflating to zero, their standards of living all declining, and finally saying ive had enough of this shit and revolting by putting money into gold and bitcoin (hard assets). We might get their token UBI (universal credit Mk2) but it will be means tested and pennies compared to what you can actually buy with it. 

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15 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Oh yeah. We need goods and services - true wealth - to be created and a reward system encouraging wealth creation.

Your problem is that you are stuck with 20th century thinking.....

Creating wealth is soooooo last year.

In modern thinking, wealth is a bad thing that should be confiscated by the state - so why bother creating it ?

:Jumping:

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