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Recession proof? Is it possible.


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Prompted by the term being used in another thread, and hearing about a local business person describing their business as such, I wonder if it is possible.

I assume they have everything on tick and can walk away without a care (knowing the person in question it wouldn’t surprise me), or am I missing something that doesn’t require shitting on all others for the sake of their own ego?

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34 minutes ago, Kwyjibo said:

Prompted by the term being used in another thread, and hearing about a local business person describing their business as such, I wonder if it is possible.

I assume they have everything on tick and can walk away without a care (knowing the person in question it wouldn’t surprise me), or am I missing something that doesn’t require shitting on all others for the sake of their own ego?

It's more about demand during a downturn than the ability to walk away without caring. What sector is the local business?

If you're the author of "How to Thrive in the Coming Collapse" you're more recession proof than your colleague who penned "Eat Drink and Be Merry, for Tomorrow We're Bankrupt".

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3 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

It's more about demand during a downturn than the ability to walk away without caring. What sector is the local business?

If you're the author of "How to Thrive in the Coming Collapse" you're more recession proof than your colleague who penned "Eat Drink and Be Merry, for Tomorrow We're Bankrupt".

It's also about your target market.

Wealthy pensioners are unlikely to be affected by a downturn, and will keep spending no matter what.

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Generally speaking, there's no such thing -- because when a recession hits an army of people will copy your business idea and dilute your customer base to nothing.

Of course it does exist, but usually only with extremely specific skillsets (ie, barrier to entry), capex (ditto, but you've got to invest when you could be doing more profitable stuff taking advantage of the boom), or customer bases.

All that said, 'working for the council' is probably 'recession proof' at the moment, but I'm really not sure how long it can continue*.

[* OTOH, to paraphrase Keynes, local councils can remain irrational longer than they can remain solvent.]

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20 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

It's more about demand during a downturn than the ability to walk away without caring. What sector is the local business?

If you're the author of "How to Thrive in the Coming Collapse" you're more recession proof than your colleague who penned "Eat Drink and Be Merry, for Tomorrow We're Bankrupt".

Without being too specific we are in the same sector, but we are definitely authors of the former rather than the latter tome. I am sure we would last longer in a downturn as we have spent a long time building up the assets and knowledge in our company and care about our supply chain as well. It’s the “recession proof-ness” of feeling able to walk away from your creditors that irks me, and that some regard it as a successful business plan.

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3 minutes ago, Kwyjibo said:

Without being too specific we are in the same sector, but we are definitely authors of the former rather than the latter tome. I am sure we would last longer in a downturn as we have spent a long time building up the assets and knowledge in our company and care about our supply chain as well. It’s the “recession proof-ness” of feeling able to walk away from your creditors that irks me, and that some regard it as a successful business plan.

I think recessions probably pass the test for "fraudulent trading" providing your holding on doesn't take the piss. These things generally happen quite quickly once they start. 

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21 hours ago, NTB said:

Undertakers are pretty recession proof.

Not really though. People will still die in recessions but wouldn’t funerals become less extravagant leading to reduced income all the same? Owning a portfolio of crematoriums, graveyards and grave digging equipment might work though. It would have to be an extreme recession before people resorted to leaving dead bodies out for the birds to pick over.

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21 hours ago, dgul said:

All that said, 'working for the council' is probably 'recession proof' at the moment, but I'm really not sure how long it can continue*.

My younger brother has worked for a local council for years. It is also a niche job. He isnt the type to set his own buisiness up even though he has the skill set and contacts.

The council have tried to carve off the service to the private sector a number of times. As I understand, it is the pension liabilities that have stopped it. I know no more here.

On the wider note, the pay as you go, gold plated pensions for government folk as a whole( I mean Joe Bloggs type jobs..not top civil serpents or MPs) will surely be hit. Longer time to claim, more contributions.

There will be areas, as hinted at the start, where local and central government will push jobs out to secondary contractors and avoid pension issues.

That issue wont be recession proof.

 

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22 hours ago, Kwyjibo said:

Prompted by the term being used in another thread, and hearing about a local business person describing their business as such, I wonder if it is possible.

I assume they have everything on tick and can walk away without a care (knowing the person in question it wouldn’t surprise me), or am I missing something that doesn’t require shitting on all others for the sake of their own ego?

Big balance sheet.

Small outstanding creditors.

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Those in the building trade, this recession anyway...some of them booked up to 2022. Anybody tried to get a tradesman lately. Lock everybody up, print hundreds of billions of pounds(  a lot getting stashed in deposit accounts because there is nothing to spend it on)  excepting home repairs and improvements. You are lucky if a tradesperson will even bother to answer the phone.

I remember at the start of Covid the experts were saying it would be a great time to get builders because they would have no work and if you left it til now you could buy the house for them to work on at a 20% discount of pre- Covid prices. I guess they hadn't factored Sunak's printing press.

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41 minutes ago, Reck B said:

Insolvency Practice.

Busy in boom times, busier in bust times.

I can vouch for that fact. I worked for a year on Insolvencies at the Inland Revenue in the early 1980s recession. We were overwhelmed by cases and had much outstanding post that some wag argued that we ought to weigh it rather than count it.

Edited by Virgil Caine
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On 17/11/2020 at 22:06, Wight Flight said:

It's also about your target market.

Wealthy pensioners are unlikely to be affected by a downturn, and will keep spending no matter what.

I imagine these are the ones with the 1955 Wolsely that write a cheque in the supermarket for a small tin of cat food.

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