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The problem with vaccines and testing...


Melchett
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Once we start getting serious vaccine uptake we enter an awkward phase where, unless you have your ‘papers’ no one can be sure if you test positive because of the vaccine or the virus. This problem is compounded by multiple vaccine strategies and multiple testing strategies, making it really hard to tell what causes false positives in what tests, and is compounded further by the Oxford vaccine only being 60% effective.

So how do TPTB plan to handle that? My guess is either ignore it completely or turn the ratchet up further. 
 

What I plan for this thread is the political implications rather than the science, because, frankly, I doubt if there are more than half a dozen posters on here who understand the science. I’m one of them and I don’t feel qualified to discuss the science (what vaccine causes what tests to be false positive).

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The current line seems to be that the vaccine is essential but won't actually allow us to reduce our guard against the virus very much if at all. The WHO chap was saying yesterday that it could get rid of the need for lockdowns but that masks and distancing are likely with us for ever.

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Chewing Grass
9 minutes ago, eight said:

The WHO chap was saying yesterday that it could get rid of the need for lockdowns but that masks and distancing are likely with us for ever.

So it is exactly like AIDS then as you have to wear a facial condom and think twice about who you 'interact' with.

Edited by Chewing Grass
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Interesting ideas here.

 

The problem I see with the 'this is with us forever now' model is why then are we spending money 'retaining' jobs which will never come back if these people get their way? Basically any jobs that are still on furlow?

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MrLibertyRedux
1 hour ago, eight said:

The current line seems to be that the vaccine is essential but won't actually allow us to reduce our guard against the virus very much if at all. The WHO chap was saying yesterday that it could get rid of the need for lockdowns but that masks and distancing are likely with us for ever.

Guns. Lots and lots of guns.

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3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I find it strange that in non-westernised countries where medical facilities are poor outside of the tropics people are not dropping like flies, not being buried in mass graves as basically there is nothing being reported on 'the news' or otherwise.

All contradictory, a very 'political' virus.

Yes, it is very curious

Either it isnt really happening (just as, some would argue, it isnt really happening here either), or the media have temporarily, for whatever reasons, lost interest in reporting the woes of such places.

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5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I find it strange that in non-westernised countries where medical facilities are poor outside of the tropics people are not dropping like flies, not being buried in mass graves as basically there is nothing being reported on 'the news' or otherwise.

All contradictory, a very 'political' virus.

That's because 99% of the people it kills it is more "finishing off" people who ae already close to death in the manner of influenza.  As an example Eddie Large had had two years of severe heart problems which meant that he was in intensive care before succumbing to WuFlu; this was correctly reported in this manner the time.

In a country without an extensive health service those people would have died of the heart problems when they started; we have a substantial minority of people who are only kept alive by the regular application of medical science - drugs, radiotherapy, dialysis etc..

There aren't going to be a lot of vulnerable ninety year olds in Mongolia for example.

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Chewing Grass

So this is our just rewards for an unhealthy lifestyle and cheating death via the medical profession and drug companies.

How bourgeois.

Chuck in the benefits system, money printing and the lack of effective borders and it is the fall of Byzantium 21st Century version.

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MrLibertyRedux
3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

That's because 99% of the people it kills it is more "finishing off" people who ae already close to death in the manner of influenza.  As an example Eddie Large had had two years of severe heart problems which meant that he was in intensive care before succumbing to WuFlu; this was correctly reported in this manner the time.

In a country without an extensive health service those people would have died of the heart problems when they started; we have a substantial minority of people who are only kept alive by the regular application of medical science - drugs, radiotherapy, dialysis etc..

There aren't going to be a lot of vulnerable ninety year olds in Mongolia for example.

I think I posted in another thread ages ago - my Grandmother was on a do not resusitate for years.

Senile dementia basket case, almost totally blind and deaf.

If you had stopped half the meds she was on, I don't think she would have lasted 48 hours.

I could never understand why we nature was not allowed to take its course.

I suspect this is quite common.

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A tremendous # on the lung
2 hours ago, Melchett said:

Once we start getting serious vaccine uptake we enter an awkward phase where, unless you have your ‘papers’ no one can be sure if you test positive because of the vaccine or the virus

Interesting thought. Do you know for certain that a test would be positive following vaccination? And if so, how long for? The standard 1 or 2 weeks immediately following?

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1 hour ago, eight said:

The current line seems to be that the vaccine is essential but won't actually allow us to reduce our guard against the virus very much if at all. The WHO chap was saying yesterday that it could get rid of the need for lockdowns but that masks and distancing are likely with us for ever.


Eh?

So what's the point of the vaccine?

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2 minutes ago, MrLibertyRedux said:

I think I posted in another thread ages ago - my Grandmother was on a do not resusitate for years.

Senile dementia basket case, almost totally blind and deaf.

If you had stopped half the meds she was on, I don't think she would have lasted 48 hours.

I could never understand why we nature was not allowed to take its course.

I suspect this is quite common.

It's a difficult one; whilst we can say that in those circumstances we wouldn't want life to be prolonged if it was us do we really want someone else making that decision for us?

A form of living will would be best giving objective criteria to say when treatment should be stopped.

For example if despite having fully functioning hearing I was unable to recognise my own name then I would say that is the point at which to cease treatment. 

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3 minutes ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Interesting thought. Do you know for certain that a test would be positive following vaccination? And if so, how long for? The standard 1 or 2 weeks immediately following?

Thats exactly the conversation I didnt want to have.

 

It is a real possibility. An antibody test will likely be false positive for any antigens present in the vaccine, 2-4 weeks later depending on the quality of the test. An antigen test will be positive immediately, likewise depending on the quality of the test. A PCR test will be positive for as long as the sequence being tested for is present at a level above the limit of detection (again quality of test). Are the sequences, proteins etc in any or all of the vaccines what are being tested for? I do not know. You could easily find out if you had a mind to, but with multiple tests and multiple vaccines, there would be no single definitive answer.

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2 minutes ago, sarahbell said:


Eh?

So what's the point of the vaccine?

No lockdowns.

Everyone can go about their normal business, go on holiday, go down the pub.

That's a pretty big change from now (for everyone not living in God's own county or the IoW) even if masks and standing slightly apart remain.

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9 minutes ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Interesting thought. Do you know for certain that a test would be positive following vaccination? And if so, how long for? The standard 1 or 2 weeks immediately following?

1:20 chance of the test finding the virus in the 2 weeks after vaccination.

And in the 2 weeks before vaccination.

And in the 12 months before and after vaccination.

etc etc.

 

1 hour ago, eight said:

The current line seems to be that the vaccine is essential but won't actually allow us to reduce our guard against the virus very much if at all. The WHO chap was saying yesterday that it could get rid of the need for lockdowns but that masks and distancing are likely with us for ever.

Well, there's no actual public health reason for any of it, other than for the more vulnerable groups.

And vaccination won't change that.

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2 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

No lockdowns.

Everyone can go about their normal business, go on holiday, go down the pub.

That's a pretty big change from now (for everyone not living in God's own county or the IoW) even if masks and standing slightly apart remain.

Except our society doesnt work like that - what about planes, trains, pubs, restaurants etc? They are fucked for ever if this is the plan, so why keep paying to keep the people in jobs?

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Chewing Grass
11 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

No lockdowns.

Everyone can go about their normal business, go on holiday, go down the pub.

That's a pretty big change from now (for everyone not living in God's own county or the IoW) even if masks and standing slightly apart remain.

So it doesn't matter whether it works or as long as people don't noticeably keel over in bigger numbers.

They will change the testing criteria, the virus will naturally wane and the vaccine will be a huge political success even if it turned out to be a placebo.

Edited by Chewing Grass
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14 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

No lockdowns.

Everyone can go about their normal business, go on holiday, go down the pub.

That's a pretty big change from now (for everyone not living in God's own county or the IoW) even if masks and standing slightly apart remain.

But please keep a gap.

 

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1 minute ago, Melchett said:

Except our society doesnt work like that - what about planes, trains, pubs, restaurants etc? They are fucked for ever if this is the plan, so why keep paying to keep the people in jobs?

 

I think the real agenda the whole time has been to avoid any media pictures of people lying on beds in town halls, school halls and aircraft hangers because that would have really caused panic and a massive recession.  To prevent that you have to keep down the number of infected and severely symptomatic people down below the level that can be treated in existing hospitals with the Nightingale hospitals as a release valve.

If you can control the "R" rate then you can prevent this from happening.

The levers to do this to date have been blunt objects - lockdowns - but throw in an effective vaccine with widespread take up and your R rate is sorted.

People will continue to die of CV as they do of flu but this will be in the normal seasonal pattern and it will be quietly forgotten about.

9 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

So it doesn't matter whether it works or as long as people don't noticeably keel over in bigger numbers.

They will change the testing criteria, the virus will naturally wane and the vaccine will be a huge political success even if it turned out to be a placebo.

Yes.

I have just posted something entirely along these lines; this post will probably be merged with it.

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problem is the virus doesn't give a clear enough signal that you've got it, needs to be modified so that you come out in big red spots or something, it's just open to all sorts of manipulation/incompetence at the moment.

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1 minute ago, sarahbell said:

But please keep a gap.

 

Will be the broadcast exhortation. 

Which will have as much effect as "don't smoke" upon smokers and "don't litter" upon litterers.

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3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think the real agenda the whole time has been to avoid any media pictures of people lying on beds in town halls, school halls and aircraft hangers because that would have really caused panic and a massive recession. 

There were a lot of pictures of scary empty hospitals.

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