Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Bigger issue is that you can't get a BTL mortgage unless you already own a home.

 

unless you are a lot of equity or assets to absorb the BTL loss.

 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

He'll be saying hes a ex offender from boro and would you like to buy some household cleaning products.

(Im guessing you are in Oz so its a bit long for transit full of smoggies to travel).

Ive not had the postcard with  'Mrs A was trying to buy a house in your road but he sale fell thru.

Or

We've recently sold xx house. Would you like to sell yours?

The former does not work as I know which houses are sold or not.

The latter normally fails as the sale drops thru after the postcard.

The lack of postcards shows that EAs have no free cash at all.

 

it was a bone fides estate agent girly, obv told by her boss to go knock on doors in the sun.  She was already nervous as my hound was howling round the side - she didn't know the gate was locked and the beware of the dog sign is pretty clear.

shame, I would have liked to have small talked her to hear what was going on in the local market - there have been a lot of sales at inflated prices (two were up 25% from last years values according to the grapevine) and an empty plot sold for feckin silly money before christmas, but then again a few have been stuck without buyers since last winter.

[spygirl]

9 minutes ago, wherebee said:

it was a bone fides estate agent girly, obv told by her boss to go knock on doors in the sun.  She was already nervous as my hound was howling round the side - she didn't know the gate was locked and the beware of the dog sign is pretty clear.

shame, I would have liked to have small talked her to hear what was going on in the local market - there have been a lot of sales at inflated prices (two were up 25% from last years values according to the grapevine) and an empty plot sold for feckin silly money before christmas, but then again a few have been stuck without buyers since last winter.

Shane you didnt get a heads up beforehand.

You could have left your computer on a Suzy Lampuagh murder page.

 

[leonardratso]

shane i assume is correct when replying to an aussie as in the cricket guy who flogs hair pieces.

[wherebee]

6 hours ago, leonardratso said:

shane i assume is correct when replying to an aussie as in the cricket guy who flogs hair pieces.

don't knock old warnie.  He got to fuck Liz Hurley for a number of months without any fall out, and despite having a dad bod and a very very bad face.  Every single DOSBODDER should bow down before his brilliance.

[Don Coglione]

On 02/03/2021 at 07:28, spygirl said:

He'll be saying hes a ex offender from boro and would you like to buy some household cleaning products.

 

So that's how we met!

Edited March 3, 2021 by Knickerless Turgid

[sancho panza]

November data on RM.Volumes got pummeled againHistorical context tell the truest picture.Rising prices on shrinking volumes is a classic Dow theory.But it's been that way for a long time.

Nov vol down 40%-50% on 2018/19 at 68

Interesting as well to see terrraces and fglats down so low in terms of vol .Very much an equity swapping market in a postcode full of lats and terraces

 

 

[Wight Flight]

Do we really think this change to a 5% deposit is going to make much difference?

If you were looking at buying some South East suitable, it will be £300k.

Deposit now is £15k, but with MMR you will need an income of at least £70k. A lot more if you have debts or kids.

Are we really suggesting someone on that much couldn't have saved £30k over a couple of years?

I don't think the deposit is the huge problem they suggest. 

[spygirl]

21 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Do we really think this change to a 5% deposit is going to make much difference?

If you were looking at buying some South East suitable, it will be £300k.

Deposit now is £15k, but with MMR you will need an income of at least £70k. A lot more if you have debts or kids.

Are we really suggesting someone on that much couldn't have saved £30k over a couple of years?

I don't think the deposit is the huge problem they suggest. 

Agreed.

Low deposit just gets you crappier rate - 2% more than 60% LTV..

Its mmr. Pissing around with an indemnity a la htpv1 2013 scheme wont do anything.

Its  so to the very expensive prop of htbv2 being killed.

I dont think extending SD relief is going yo change much, at least where I am. Theres few sales going thru.

 

[Hancock]

48 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Do we really think this change to a 5% deposit is going to make much difference?

 

Stock markets do, since its been announced over the weekend share of major builders are up around 10%

 

[Nomad]

It's crazy in South Dorset. Everything is being sold, even during lockdown, and big increases from last year, 500k+ for a 4 bed in decent area appears to be the norm. The last thing that was needed is a SD holiday! I've had leaflets through door and emails asking if I am interested in selling. I think it is a massively over heated market, and the govt have just added more fuel to the flames.

 

[Hancock]

Its happening.  (just ignore the rest of the sentence)

[Frank Hovis]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Its happening.  (just ignore the rest of the sentence)

 

What's going to be most important though is what is happening within bands. 

What seems to have been driving the market over the past year is that some London type sells their terrace for a million and buys a luxury seaside house for a million.  These two transactions push up the indices in both the area sold (previous gains crystallised) and purchased (outbidding the locals).

I have suggested however that the transactions over the past year have been happening within this wealthy bubble - people with big existing unearned equity gains moving it around the country - which is disconnected from the first time buyer market where salary multiples actually matter.

At this level people have lost substantial income across the board in many sectors - hospitality, entertainment, tourism, self-employed etc. - and are now either unable to buy or to keep up with payments.  This first step property - flats, starter homes on new build estates - is going to see large falls as supply considerably exceeds demand.

This will then pull down the level above - the "move on" homes - as nobody is unable to move down.

I don't however see this pushing much further up: yet.

For the next few years there will be two housing markets: that of the worker without substantial inherited wealth, which wall be falling, and that of the holders of substantial housing equity which will be static or rising.

Ultimately IMO that leads to a crash as the buyers run out for that upper market as very few are able to make the considerable step up between two disconnected housing markets.  Markets require buyers and buyers for the higher level houses are going to be people aged in their fifties and up to be in that position from previous HPI; and there is nobody coming up behind them.

 

In summary:

Cheaper houses - the crash has already started.

Expensive houses - no crash for a few years but when it comes it will be something to behold.

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

In summary:

Cheaper houses - the crash has already started.

Expensive houses - no crash for a few years but when it comes it will be something to behold.

Im looking to spend circa 250k and what i could have got last year for that now costs nearer 300k.

Things are on the edge of a precipice, but they have been for close to 20 years now.

[wherebee]

As I have posted before, I keep a weather eye on a village in the SE I know very well.  Normally about 5-10 properties for sale at any one time.

 

Last year, Q3-4, there were 20+ for sale.  I even talked about it with a mate who still lives there.

 

This week - 3, all huge houses and very overpriced.  Everything else has gone - flats, terraces, etc.  It's really weird.

[Frank Hovis]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Im looking to spend circa 250k and what i could have got last year for that now costs nearer 300k.

Things are on the edge of a precipice, but they have been for close to 20 years now.

 

I don't know where you live but in parts of Cornwall that wouldn't be a starter or cheap home.

Redruth - a cheaper part of Cornwall.  Flats for £125k, houses for £170k.

Properties For Sale in Redruth | Rightmove

 

There is also an interesting lifetime tenancy house which you don't see very often; we've discussed them on here before and they are an alternative to equity release with its compounding interest.  Instead you sell your house at a big discount but have the right to live there until you move out or expire.

Guide Price

£89,250

A 3 Bedroom Semi Detached Bungalow occupied by a Male aged 74 and a Female aged 73. 100% purchase. The occupiers continues to live in the property for their lifetime, they pay no rent but are responsible for the maintenance of the property and all associated costs. When the Lifetime Owner permanently vacates the property the investor obtains vacant possession. Please contact Guy Charrison direct on . Read more about lifetime tenancies at
Only external viewing is available, this is non-negotiable.

3 bedroom bungalow for sale in Penhale Estate, Redruth, Cornwall, TR15 1HG, TR15 (rightmove.co.uk)

[Castlevania]

5 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I don't know where you live but in parts of Cornwall that wouldn't be a starter or cheap home.

Redruth - a cheaper part of Cornwall.  Flats for £125k, houses for £170k.

Properties For Sale in Redruth | Rightmove

 

There is also an interesting lifetime tenancy house which you don't see very often; we've discussed them on here before and they are an alternative to equity release with its compounding interest.  Instead you sell your house at a big discount but have the right to live there until you move out or expire.

Guide Price

£89,250

A 3 Bedroom Semi Detached Bungalow occupied by a Male aged 74 and a Female aged 73. 100% purchase. The occupiers continues to live in the property for their lifetime, they pay no rent but are responsible for the maintenance of the property and all associated costs. When the Lifetime Owner permanently vacates the property the investor obtains vacant possession. Please contact Guy Charrison direct on . Read more about lifetime tenancies at
Only external viewing is available, this is non-negotiable.

3 bedroom bungalow for sale in Penhale Estate, Redruth, Cornwall, TR15 1HG, TR15 (rightmove.co.uk)

It’s like buying a rental with a sitting tenant 

[Castlevania]

On 03/03/2021 at 18:20, Wight Flight said:

Do we really think this change to a 5% deposit is going to make much difference?

If you were looking at buying some South East suitable, it will be £300k.

Deposit now is £15k, but with MMR you will need an income of at least £70k. A lot more if you have debts or kids.

Are we really suggesting someone on that much couldn't have saved £30k over a couple of years?

I don't think the deposit is the huge problem they suggest. 

It’ll add fuel to the flames in cheaper parts of the country (the North; midlands; Wales)

[Frank Hovis]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It’s like buying a rental with a sitting tenant 

 

The difference is that you are buying it from the owner who becomes the tenant; and as it is IMO a better altenrtaive to equity release you are going to have elderly tenants.

Asong as you can buy a decent number of these - a dozen say - then I think they're a good way to make money from property investments.  They're not for me as I dislike property investments for the hassle and additional costs (legal fees, stamp duty, maintenance, problem tenants, insurance) that they bring.

[Hancock]

17 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I don't know where you live but in parts of Cornwall that wouldn't be a starter or cheap home.

 

Im mid 40s it shouldnt be a starter home, it should be enough to buy a 90m2 semi or detached house in a good area.

[Hancock]

20 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I don't know where you live but in parts of Cornwall that wouldn't be a starter or cheap home.

Redruth - a cheaper part of Cornwall.  Flats for £125k, houses for £170k.

Properties For Sale in Redruth | Rightmove

 

There is also an interesting lifetime tenancy house which you don't see very often; we've discussed them on here before and they are an alternative to equity release with its compounding interest.  Instead you sell your house at a big discount but have the right to live there until you move out or expire.

Guide Price

£89,250

A 3 Bedroom Semi Detached Bungalow occupied by a Male aged 74 and a Female aged 73. 100% purchase. The occupiers continues to live in the property for their lifetime, they pay no rent but are responsible for the maintenance of the property and all associated costs. When the Lifetime Owner permanently vacates the property the investor obtains vacant possession. Please contact Guy Charrison direct on . Read more about lifetime tenancies at
Only external viewing is available, this is non-negotiable.

3 bedroom bungalow for sale in Penhale Estate, Redruth, Cornwall, TR15 1HG, TR15 (rightmove.co.uk)

Youd want to meet the residents, if they're on deaths door it maybe worth a punt, if they're out paragliding and dogging then maybe not.

[No One]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

What's going to be most important though is what is happening within bands. 

What seems to have been driving the market over the past year is that some London type sells their terrace for a million and buys a luxury seaside house for a million.  These two transactions push up the indices in both the area sold (previous gains crystallised) and purchased (outbidding the locals).

I have suggested however that the transactions over the past year have been happening within this wealthy bubble - people with big existing unearned equity gains moving it around the country - which is disconnected from the first time buyer market where salary multiples actually matter.

At this level people have lost substantial income across the board in many sectors - hospitality, entertainment, tourism, self-employed etc. - and are now either unable to buy or to keep up with payments.  This first step property - flats, starter homes on new build estates - is going to see large falls as supply considerably exceeds demand.

This will then pull down the level above - the "move on" homes - as nobody is unable to move down.

I don't however see this pushing much further up: yet.

For the next few years there will be two housing markets: that of the worker without substantial inherited wealth, which wall be falling, and that of the holders of substantial housing equity which will be static or rising.

Ultimately IMO that leads to a crash as the buyers run out for that upper market as very few are able to make the considerable step up between two disconnected housing markets.  Markets require buyers and buyers for the higher level houses are going to be people aged in their fifties and up to be in that position from previous HPI; and there is nobody coming up behind them.

 

In summary:

Cheaper houses - the crash has already started.

Expensive houses - no crash for a few years but when it comes it will be something to behold.

I really really hope this is the case.

All my punts in stocks are for the sole purpose of buying a house. Basically I'm gambling to be able to buy a house. (this is not advice) and if this is coupled with a HPC then as my stocks go up and HP's go down I may be able to grab something, finally.

Only issue is I'm a contractor, and whilst I'm getting minted, getting a loan might be difficult. I'm aiming for a 10% deposit from my side and another 10% from my wife. 20% down on a house has got to get a cheaper mortgage me thinks.

 

[No One]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Im mid 40s it shouldnt be a starter home, it should be enough to buy a 90m2 semi or detached house in a good area.

This is how I feel, although I'm a bit younger. In my industry, on what I'm earning I ought to live on Downton Abbey but Cameron made sure that wasn't so.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Its happening.  (just ignore the rest of the sentence)

Think again.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/lloyds-bank-to-become-private-landlord---report-7kvhd89udpvb5wp.html

 

 

[No One]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Think again.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/lloyds-bank-to-become-private-landlord---report-7kvhd89udpvb5wp.html

 

 

So basically they borrow from Central Bank at next to nothing, give you nothing on your savigns account, they scoop up housing and rent it out to the serfs.