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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


haroldshand

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Micky Roberts
13 hours ago, Hancock said:

Yes i know where they've been and look at the outcome of rates being artificially low.

Your scenario involves printing money long into the future, that is how theyve kept rates low.

I think that roads coming to an end, you clearly think interest rates will remain at ZIRP levels ... neither of us can be certain ... but i dont have the inclination to pick stats out to attempt to change your view on this.

Historically high domestic inflation has forced the government to raise interest rates in order to defend the value of the pound.

This time around inflation will be universal. Currency devaluation will be much less of a threat if other major economies have the same problem.

Governments will inflate away the value of their national debt by keeping interest rates on the floor.

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4 hours ago, Micky Roberts said:

Historically high domestic inflation has forced the government to raise interest rates in order to defend the value of the pound.

This time around inflation will be universal. Currency devaluation will be much less of a threat if other major economies have the same problem.

Governments will inflate away the value of their national debt by keeping interest rates on the floor.

So in your theory we enter a stagflation i.e Japan. Long dated bond yields would continue to rise globally unless with constant government purchasing as inflation would be left unchecked. 

The governments want/need inflation to inflate away the debt. In order to do so they would need to limit bond buying. Continuously rising yields would cause a rush for bonds when they reach an equilibrium for a safer return in comparison to the stock market. Tech and FAANG blow off and the stock market tanks, lots of asset value lost, zombie and debt laden companies go bust.

The only answer is to raise rates. But they know the economic implications of this even halfway to levels of a decade ago. Between a rock and a hard place with no room to manoeuvre, an inflection point 40 years in the making. 

The debt slaves will be at the mercy of the government for the rest of their lives whichever path, perhaps by design.

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8 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Or just passes on? I have a house worth 300k no mortgage and cannot afford house 450k with mortgage but dad has 2m pension and 1m house all paid for. This money will be passed on. Not sure how inheritance will effect the market 

Older generations had more children. Not much good when you divide a £500k house into 4. That’s even before you get to the vast swathes of youth whose parents didn’t own homes to pass on.

The demographic you mention will be tiny in the grand scheme of things compared to the amount of 4/5 bedroom houses their are. That’s before the fact that the younger generations won’t be having enough kids to fill those houses.

The demand for big houses will drop like a stone eventually (inflation of bills, property levies etc) and when it does it would take the rest of the market with it. I think we’ll see a post Covid realisation smack down long before then however.

 

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Democorruptcy
On 11/03/2021 at 11:59, Hancock said:

These savvy sellers are on the ball, it didn't sell by August 2020 for £300,000

As quite obviously buyers were waiting to pay £340,000 .... its fucken obvious when you think about it. :S

image.png.f7d8d51f3501e59f83ee7bcc442f8d36.png

If you use the patma extension you can see that it went SSTC (unavailable) on 12th Oct and has just come back on the market.

 

pat.jpg

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Ive always had 10-15 properties in my saved account on RM, that were vaguely worth buying.

Now i'm down to none as the last one has gone STC.

LL's taking millions of houses that would usually be traded off the market has to be a major cause of this.

Edited by Hancock
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On 15/03/2021 at 23:57, RJT1979 said:

Or just passes on? I have a house worth 300k no mortgage and cannot afford house 450k with mortgage but dad has 2m pension and 1m house all paid for. This money will be passed on. Not sure how inheritance will effect the market 

I'm starting know a loy if families where kids under 30 have copped a lot of equity. Think 4x GPs with only 4 GKs.

I dont thinks a housing pro - the less borrowed money in housing, the less prices rise.

The days of lots of mortgages are long gone. And with a large num er of jobs.

When i came to the South in the early 90s, 60% of people i met either worked in retail or banks/finance.

Equivalent figures North was 20%.

Most people in North did other jobs. Loss of well paying jobs is noticeable in South - friend comments on how posh n well mannered hus super market delivery drivers are.

Now its looking like the South us facing mass poverty, made worse with much 

The Northern areas which had the big old Northern building societies - Halufax, Bradford n Bingley - have lost truly huge number of well paying jobs.

The gormless boosting, byCameron, trying to get mortgage numbers off multi I.e. worst ever, floor has massively backfired

Htbers, most of who are London/South, have seen falling prices or, worse, plastic cladding, are fucked.

 

 

 

 

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sleepwello'nights

Sort of relevant to some comments in this thread. The leading article on tonight's ITV News at Ten was the appalling conditions some tenants were living in. Leaking roofs, causing water running into several apartments in the building, mould so bad it looked as if a flat had been damaged by fire, complaints to the landlord for remedial action were ignored. 

A mother having to rub ointment on her children because they were always catching colds due to the disgusting conditions they had to live in. Electrical appliances unusable because of damage to the electrical installation.  

It really was appalling far worse than slum conditions after WW2.  One tenant making complaints of racial discrimination, when he spoke to the landlord and gave his christian name he was treated differently than when he just gave his english sounding surname. 

And who was the landlord....................a local council :Jumping:

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Warlord Velmoth
1 minute ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Sort of relevant to some comments in this thread. The leading article on tonight's ITV News at Ten was the appalling conditions some tenants were living in. Leaking roofs, causing water running into several apartments in the building, mould so bad it looked as if a flat had been damaged by fire, complaints to the landlord for remedial action were ignored. 

A mother having to rub ointment on her children because they were always catching colds due to the disgusting conditions they had to live in. Electrical appliances unusable because of damage to the electrical installation.  

It really was appalling far worse than slum conditions after WW2.  One tenant making complaints of racial discrimination, when he spoke to the landlord and gave his christian name he was treated differently than when he just gave his english sounding surname. 

And who was the landlord....................a local council :Jumping:

Private landlords can be shite, too. My sister moved into a new house at the start of last year. The kitchen was "fully furnished" so she got rid of the washer and fridge from her flat, despite asking if she could bring her own washing machine as it was brand new. Landlord refused because it would be too much hassle to get rid of the supplied washing machine even though the thing was rusty and old. Few months later the washing machine disintegrated itself spectacularly mid spin. The fridge blew a few weeks later and the landlord got told to fuck off when she wanted £700 to replace both appliances. As revenge, the petty cunt told them they couldn't put up wallpaper, as the rooms were only to be painted in pastel colours and that no, she has no intention of putting a gate on the back garden, and my sister can't either.

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sleepwello'nights
18 minutes ago, Warlord Velmoth said:

Private landlords can be shite, too. My sister moved into a new house at the start of last year. The kitchen was "fully furnished" so she got rid of the washer and fridge from her flat, despite asking if she could bring her own washing machine as it was brand new. Landlord refused because it would be too much hassle to get rid of the supplied washing machine even though the thing was rusty and old. Few months later the washing machine disintegrated itself spectacularly mid spin. The fridge blew a few weeks later and the landlord got told to fuck off when she wanted £700 to replace both appliances. As revenge, the petty cunt told them they couldn't put up wallpaper, as the rooms were only to be painted in pastel colours and that no, she has no intention of putting a gate on the back garden, and my sister can't either.

There are good and bad in all sectors. Tell me who is responsible for enforcing environmental health regulations? It is far deeper than a tight wad landlord.

Also the local authority in question is Croydon. I guess given the ethnic make up of the area lots of council officials are of a similar ethnic background. Lots of questions to look into.

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Warlord Velmoth
26 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

There are good and bad in all sectors. Tell me who is responsible for enforcing environmental health regulations? It is far deeper than a tight wad landlord.

Also the local authority in question is Croydon. I guess given the ethnic make up of the area lots of council officials are of a similar ethnic background. Lots of questions to look into.

Should have mentioned that first. What the fuck do people expect, living in fucking Croydon? Its like complaining your foot stinks after deliberately stepping in dog shit.

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3 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Sort of relevant to some comments in this thread. The leading article on tonight's ITV News at Ten was the appalling conditions some tenants were living in. Leaking roofs, causing water running into several apartments in the building, mould so bad it looked as if a flat had been damaged by fire, complaints to the landlord for remedial action were ignored. 

A mother having to rub ointment on her children because they were always catching colds due to the disgusting conditions they had to live in. Electrical appliances unusable because of damage to the electrical installation.  

It really was appalling far worse than slum conditions after WW2.  One tenant making complaints of racial discrimination, when he spoke to the landlord and gave his christian name he was treated differently than when he just gave his english sounding surname. 

And who was the landlord....................a local council :Jumping:

I watched a cop show on Sunday night where the blacky was spouting off that the police dog was racist. Copper looked bemused, then told the docile cunt that dogs don't see in colour. I'd be more surprised if there was any white people working at Croydon council to be racist to this ethnic family.

But most people would sooner rent off the council on what usually tantamounts to a life time tenancy where there is a number you can call to make complaints.

Anyway here must be the story, seems the councillors gave £200 million to their friends and there is nowt left in the kitty. Its what happens when 3rd world levels of corruption become the norm. But as we know no one will be sacked for this level of incompetence.
https://insidecroydon.com/2021/03/22/croydon-shamed-over-dangerous-squalor-in-council-flats/

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1 hour ago, Hancock said:

I watched a cop show on Sunday night where the blacky was spouting off that the police dog was racist. Copper looked bemused, then told the docile cunt that dogs don't see in colour. I'd be more surprised if there was any white people working at Croydon council to be racist to this ethnic family.

 

You can train a dog very well to be racist based on smell and shape though.  Erm.  So I am told.

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sancho panza
On 16/03/2021 at 08:36, Democorruptcy said:

If you use the patma extension you can see that it went SSTC (unavailable) on 12th Oct and has just come back on the market.

 

pat.jpg

how do you do that DM?

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5 hours ago, wherebee said:

You can train a dog very well to be racist based on smell and shape though.  Erm.  So I am told.

When the dog is told to chase the bad guy, the dog doesn't get the choice of what race, shape or smell the person is.

If i was to take the choice of whether a dog is racist or whether its just another darkie playing the race card in the most absurd way possible, i'm going for the latter.

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2 hours ago, Hancock said:

When the dog is told to chase the bad guy, the dog doesn't get the choice of what race, shape or smell the person is.

If i was to take the choice of whether a dog is racist or whether its just another darkie playing the race card in the most absurd way possible, i'm going for the latter.

oh, I have no doubt.  my point was that dogs are colourblind, but not race blind.

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6 minutes ago, wherebee said:

oh, I have no doubt.  my point was that dogs are colourblind, but not race blind.

But all races can smell the same and are varying in sizes.

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Its that time of years when regional paper put out there properdee BS.

Its never that good at the best of time.

Now, the stuff is totally made up.

Where do people move to Scarborough from? The top 10 places in the UK people leave for a new life on the coast are revealed

People from Scarborough know it is a great place to live – and it turns out that thousands of other Brits agree !

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/lifestyle/homes-and-gardens/where-do-people-move-to-scarborough-from-the-top-10-places-in-the-uk-people-leave-for-a-new-life-on-the-coast-are-revealed-3174060

In fact, in the 12 months to June 2019, 4,823 people moved to Scarborough from elsewhere in the UK. That’s according to internal migration data from the Office for National Statistics, which also reveals the areas of the country where the most people are drawn to Scarborough from. So where is the pull to our wonderful coast area the greatest?

Scabbys population is ~110k. Thats 3% of the population moving in.

3. Leeds

The third most common place people arrived in the area from was Leeds, with 300 arrivals in the year to June 2019.

Leeds pop is 800k - almost 8x than Scabby. And has jobs and stuff.

Yet somehow we are meant to believe that Scabby has had ~13x people move to it than Leeds?

 

 

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14 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Its that time of years when regional paper put out there properdee BS.

Its never that good at the best of time.

Now, the stuff is totally made up.

Where do people move to Scarborough from? The top 10 places in the UK people leave for a new life on the coast are revealed

People from Scarborough know it is a great place to live – and it turns out that thousands of other Brits agree !

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/lifestyle/homes-and-gardens/where-do-people-move-to-scarborough-from-the-top-10-places-in-the-uk-people-leave-for-a-new-life-on-the-coast-are-revealed-3174060

In fact, in the 12 months to June 2019, 4,823 people moved to Scarborough from elsewhere in the UK. That’s according to internal migration data from the Office for National Statistics, which also reveals the areas of the country where the most people are drawn to Scarborough from. So where is the pull to our wonderful coast area the greatest?

Scabbys population is ~110k. Thats 3% of the population moving in.

3. Leeds

The third most common place people arrived in the area from was Leeds, with 300 arrivals in the year to June 2019.

Leeds pop is 800k - almost 8x than Scabby. And has jobs and stuff.

Yet somehow we are meant to believe that Scabby has had ~13x people move to it than Leeds?

 

 

Are you misreading that? I thought it meant that 300 of the 4823 migrants were from Leeds.

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12 minutes ago, CVG said:

Are you misreading that? I thought it meant that 300 of the 4823 migrants were from Leeds.

Rereading it. Yes...

 

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On 22/03/2021 at 22:59, sleepwello'nights said:

There are good and bad in all sectors. Tell me who is responsible for enforcing environmental health regulations? It is far deeper than a tight wad landlord.

Also the local authority in question is Croydon. I guess given the ethnic make up of the area lots of council officials are of a similar ethnic background. Lots of questions to look into.

Usually bad in the landlording sector though. Amatuer or otherwise.

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On 22/03/2021 at 22:59, sleepwello'nights said:

There are good and bad in all sectors. Tell me who is responsible for enforcing environmental health regulations? It is far deeper than a tight wad landlord.

Also the local authority in question is Croydon. I guess given the ethnic make up of the area lots of council officials are of a similar ethnic background. Lots of questions to look into.

I was flicking through the channels last night and the top person at Croydon council (Muslim woman called something Ali) was being interviewed about these flats and was coming up with all sorts of crap excuses. Those flats should be knocked down and all council workers who have been in them sacked, they are a fucken disgrace.

Several residents were being interviewed all of immigrant stock, most being seemingly new arrivals.

If they didn't arrive i'm sure the standard would not have fallen to the levels they'd get in their native country

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goldbug9999
On 13/12/2020 at 11:21, spygirl said:

Nope.

Theres multiple things at play.

...

With respect though youve been pointing out a lot of these sorts stats for some time now and so far the gov has simply printed its way all over all this reasonable and sound logic of yours and I'm not seeing any signs that this is going to change.

Edited by goldbug9999
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