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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


haroldshand

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, Hancock said:

I was chatting to some agency staff who've worked at the place for years ... they merely got sent home with no notice ... a quick google search estimates 1.5 million agency workers in Britain.

It's brutal.

Funnily enough H,a dream woke me this morning-I was having a lie in as working nights tonight-and in it I was a casual worker at a plant in Rugby,been told to get there for a shift,there was work....got there,they said you're not needed and I woke up raging against the machine

I've been there,mainly in my 20's,it was crap then and life hasn't improved much for your average agency worker since.

My one friend who still does it,I haven't seen for a while as he's having a dark spell(Afghan vet,tough tour etc etc),but when he was last out for one of our strolls he was telling me how he went to one agency at the start and end of his shift for some reason and there were a couple of people trying to pick up shifts just sat there both when he arrived and when he came back.This was some time back.

Property market is fubar,longer term.I'm public sector now-ambulance service-but things are getting frayed even in there.The pressure from the policical class in London is immense.They have these weird performance parameters for us ie response within 8 minutes(no clinical siginifcance to that time at all) and they're thrashing young crews.These kids are on £25k plus unsocial allowance which for shifts and weekends and the nature of the work in places like Birmingham,is really dire.Anyone who can leave is.Same in the Police.It's not worth the risk to your phsycial safety.

What I'm trying to say in short is that these kids don't want 35 year mortgages,they can see their career will last 5-10 years.

So add the self employed to the agency workers to the youngsters who have jobs but know they won't stick them and there's another set of reasons no terraces and flats are selling at the minute

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Thats good old Boris's levelling up in action. What a fucken cunt he is, i bet Blair wishes he could be as much of a Blairite as this absolute clown and his YTS sidekick.

I can imagine Blair green with envy here.Bozza has quarantined a population.

'Look at my works ye mighty and despair'.

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On 27/12/2020 at 14:42, spygirl said:

Yep. Same.

Zilch Mar - May.

Then a jump back, but still low.

Then off cliff end of summer.

Banks are not lending. Simples.

And they wont lend til they know what state their previous  lending is in I.e 6 months after furlough ends.

 

NW on radio. Results day!

Missed the wibble ,so loot at results

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/corporate-information/results-and-accounts#xtab:2020-2021

Financial highlights

•Underlying profit improved to £790m (2020: £469m), driven by improved income andmargin, and statutory profit increased to £823m (2020: £466m)

•Well capitalised with higher UK leverage ratio of 5.4% (2020: 4.7%) and higher CET1ratio of 36.4% (2020: 31.9%)

•Managed costs down by £94m to £2,218m (2020: £2,312m)

•Set aside £190m (2020: £209m) for loans that may not be repaid in light of uncertainoutlook, although arrears remain low

•Member financial benefit of £265m (2020: £735m), below our £400m target, mainlyreflecting lower savings rates

Trading highlights

Gross lending of £29.6bn (2020: £30.9bn) and net lending of £1.9bn (2020: £2.8bn);our market share was broadly flat, with growth in buy to let offsetting lower primelending

•Deposits up £10.6bn (2020: £5.7bn) reflecting some members retaining higher balancesduring lockdown

•Maintained market share of 10% of all current account

One - theres something happening at NW. I cant work out what and I dont know anyone to ask. Theyve been laying off people and shutting branches at a rapid clip.

Saying, that NW are one of the last large mortgage lenders standing.

Their net lending is falling. This is not a market where mortgage cash is expanding at 10% - its falling. People are paying off mortgages from ~25 year ago, they are not lending anywhere at previous  numbers - even more harsh when you consider how much houses have gone up in NW stamping grounds over the last 25 years.

Id also point out that NW are one of the few big banks that touches HTB.

So, in terms of a houses are going !!UP!!!!! Buy now!!! Or lose out.

These figures tell a different story.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

NW on radio. Results day!

Missed the wibble ,so loot at results

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/corporate-information/results-and-accounts#xtab:2020-2021

Financial highlights

•Underlying profit improved to £790m (2020: £469m), driven by improved income andmargin, and statutory profit increased to £823m (2020: £466m)

•Well capitalised with higher UK leverage ratio of 5.4% (2020: 4.7%) and higher CET1ratio of 36.4% (2020: 31.9%)

•Managed costs down by £94m to £2,218m (2020: £2,312m)

•Set aside £190m (2020: £209m) for loans that may not be repaid in light of uncertainoutlook, although arrears remain low

•Member financial benefit of £265m (2020: £735m), below our £400m target, mainlyreflecting lower savings rates

Trading highlights

Gross lending of £29.6bn (2020: £30.9bn) and net lending of £1.9bn (2020: £2.8bn);our market share was broadly flat, with growth in buy to let offsetting lower primelending

•Deposits up £10.6bn (2020: £5.7bn) reflecting some members retaining higher balancesduring lockdown

•Maintained market share of 10% of all current account

One - theres something happening at NW. I cant work out what and I dont know anyone to ask. Theyve been laying off people and shutting branches at a rapid clip.

Saying, that NW are one of the last large mortgage lenders standing.

Their net lending is falling. This is not a market where mortgage cash is expanding at 10% - its falling. People are paying off mortgages from ~25 year ago, they are not lending anywhere at previous  numbers - even more harsh when you consider how much houses have gone up in NW stamping grounds over the last 25 years.

Id also point out that NW are one of the few big banks that touches HTB.

So, in terms of a houses are going !!UP!!!!! Buy now!!! Or lose out.

These figures tell a different story.

 

 

 

 

 

Nationwide is very fussy about the ratios they lend at.

I'm aware of senior Nationwide staff who have mortgages elsewhere because Barclays were far more generous over what could be borrowed compared to Nationwide (and the old days of discounted mortgage rates for staff has gone now rates are so low anyway).

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reformed nice guy
6 hours ago, spygirl said:

Gross lending of £29.6bn (2020: £30.9bn) and net lending of £1.9bn (2020: £2.8bn);our market share was broadly flat, with growth in buy to let offsetting lower primelending

 

Does net lending mean people have paid off roughly £28 billion?

If they ever went negative net lending, would that not mean a contraction in money supply as that money is effectively taken out the system?

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1 minute ago, reformed nice guy said:

Does net lending mean people have paid off roughly £28 billion?

If they ever went negative net lending, would that not mean a contraction in money supply as that money is effectively taken out the system?

Yes.

NW are lending less money in 2021 then they were ~20 years ago.

It might be that their customers have used low IRs to pay off their debt early - which is a sensible thing -for the customer.

For NW its a disaster, as they are struggling to find customer who can clear in the MMR hurdle

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reformed nice guy
43 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Yes.

NW are lending less money in 2021 then they were ~20 years ago.

It might be that their customers have used low IRs to pay off their debt early - which is a sensible thing -for the customer.

For NW its a disaster, as they are struggling to find customer who can clear in the MMR hurdle

Interesting

I just looked up the numbers of their previous net lending:

2019 £8.6 bn

2018: £5.8bn

2017: £8.8bn

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YBS ad popped up on FB, so I looked out of interest.

UIm v curious about mortgage pricing esp the smaller banks n BSes.

'Our lending criteria have changed '

Furlough income

Currently, we don’t accept furlough income for mortgage applications.

Furloughed applicants must be back at work on their full salary before we can consider their income for a mortgage application.

For joint mortgage applications, where one applicant is on Furlough we will assess the affordability of the mortgage using only the salary of the applicant who is not on Furlough.

Maximum loan to value changes

We can now offer mortgages on the following:

  • If you’re purchasing a new property the maximum loan-to-value (LTV) is 95%
  • If you’re re-mortgaging your property the maximum LTV is 90% LTV or less
  • New Build purchases up to a maximum of 85% LTV

 

 

 

 

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https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-march-2021/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-march-2021

  • the number of employments furloughed grew sharply in November and stood at 4.0 million at 31 December. The employments furloughed increased further in January to 4.9 million employments furloughed on 31 January (revised figure following late claims and amendments)

Theres a tiny number of people active in the UK house buying market.

 

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sancho panza
On 21/05/2021 at 07:56, spygirl said:

One - theres something happening at NW. I cant work out what and I dont know anyone to ask. Theyve been laying off people and shutting branches at a rapid clip.

Saying, that NW are one of the last large mortgage lenders standing.

Their net lending is falling. This is not a market where mortgage cash is expanding at 10% - its falling. People are paying off mortgages from ~25 year ago, they are not lending anywhere at previous  numbers - even more harsh when you consider how much houses have gone up in NW stamping grounds over the last 25 years.

You have to consider theiur net lending in real terms.Balance sheet stood at £185.6bn 2019,£188.6bn 2020 and £191bn 2021,not even expanding ahead of the inflation rate.

As you say the key is that the old loans getting paid off are the Low LTV loans and they're getting replaced by the high LTV HTB loans.I tend to avoid the bull they publish about leverage/capital ratio's as NW will be using IRB approach to risk weighting(iirc) and basing their risk weighting on their own historical data(ie all the low LTV laons that are currently getting paid off.)

On top of that,they took on loads of dud loans back in the day.

On 24/05/2021 at 14:00, spygirl said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-march-2021/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-march-2021

  • the number of employments furloughed grew sharply in November and stood at 4.0 million at 31 December. The employments furloughed increased further in January to 4.9 million employments furloughed on 31 January (revised figure following late claims and amendments)

Theres a tiny number of people active in the UK house buying market.

 

wow,impressive number

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7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

You have to consider theiur net lending in real terms.Balance sheet stood at £185.6bn 2019,£188.6bn 2020 and £191bn 2021,not even expanding ahead of the inflation rate.

As you say the key is that the old loans getting paid off are the Low LTV loans and they're getting replaced by the high LTV HTB loans.I tend to avoid the bull they publish about leverage/capital ratio's as NW will be using IRB approach to risk weighting(iirc) and basing their risk weighting on their own historical data(ie all the low LTV laons that are currently getting paid off.)

On top of that,they took on loads of dud loans back in the day.

wow,impressive number

One of thing I try to work out if how many people are working FT.

There were 6.0 million people on Universal Credit on 14 January 2021. This is a 98% increase since 12 March 2020.

4m forloughed, 6m on UC, a similar number on TCs.

Thats over half the working age population of the UK who basically subbed by tax payer and not going to get a mortgage.

Again, the number of people able to get mortgage finance is shrinking.

 

 

 

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, spygirl said:

One of thing I try to work out if how many people are working FT.

There were 6.0 million people on Universal Credit on 14 January 2021. This is a 98% increase since 12 March 2020.

4m forloughed, 6m on UC, a similar number on TCs.

Thats over half the working age population of the UK who basically subbed by tax payer and not going to get a mortgage.

Again, the number of people able to get mortgage finance is shrinking.

Which brings us back to the evidence of what you're saying and here it is,QED.14 terraces sold in an area that has probably 10,000+in Jan 2021.

I realise a lot will be owned by the council/LL's but still...

 

Look at the volume in terraces in LE2...I used to be a posty so know that postcode,there are huge areas of terraces in teh Highfields,Clarendon park,Aylestone,Knighton fields,Stoney gate.

image.png.58c6dac9ca2407bcc2f51d77fa496b40.png

https://www.postcodearea.co.uk/postaltowns/leicester/le2/

Total population 119,000,hosueholds 44,000

https://www.streetlist.co.uk/le/le2

image.thumb.png.30ec9cd2700993b02b112f4f220350ce.png

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Wight Flight
16 hours ago, Hancock said:

Democrats and Biden fucking over the plebs in the same way that Trump did.

Yep. Heard yesterday that the top realtor in Marco Island, Florida doesn't have a single property for sale.

He is now playing a lot of golf.

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Green Devil
1 hour ago, spunko said:

Theres gonna be a lot of greedy landlords that are thinking theyll unload their property in this bubblemania market.

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1 hour ago, Green Devil said:

Theres gonna be a lot of greedy landlords that are thinking theyll unload their property in this bubblemania market.

Yes. According to that article 45% of landlords only own 1 other property though, I was hoping the average would own at least a couple more.

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19 minutes ago, spunko said:

Yes. According to that article 45% of landlords only own 1 other property though, I was hoping the average would own at least a couple more.

Well, it is 55% own more than 1.

First the LL has to serve notice.

Then its got to be court enforced. Theres another 18 months to wait.

Covid is going to kill LL.

 

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Wight Flight
4 hours ago, spunko said:

That's a lot of landlords looking for a new tenant, in a pool of the newly homeless with no references that are also uninsureable.

It is going to be very interesting.

Yet again the meddling has made things worse than just leaving well alone.

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Frank Hovis
11 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

That's a lot of landlords looking for a new tenant, in a pool of the newly homeless with no references that are also uninsureable.

It is going to be very interesting.

Yet again the meddling has made things worse than just leaving well alone.

It depends where the houses are though doesn't it?

If they're in Cornwall, Devon, IoW then they will simply be sold for a huge profit.

That won't be interesting at all.

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Wight Flight
7 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

It depends where the houses are though doesn't it?

If they're in Cornwall, Devon, IoW then they will simply be sold for a huge profit.

That won't be interesting at all.

I really don't have a clue.

What kind of properties are likely to have to evict tenants? Will it be the shitty flats that nobody wants, or are there lots of nicer houses where the £2,500 furlough cap has caused the problem?

Until the tide goes out, we won't see who isn't wearing trunks.

It will take some time to play out though.

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Frank Hovis
1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

I really don't have a clue.

What kind of properties are likely to have to evict tenants? Will it be the shitty flats that nobody wants, or are there lots of nicer houses where the £2,500 furlough cap has caused the problem?

Until the tide goes out, we won't see who isn't wearing trunks.

It will take some time to play out though.

It's mostly small houses here rather than flats.

The ones in seaside towns will be flogged off IMO; those inland towns will put back up for rent.

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3 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

It depends where the houses are though doesn't it?

If they're in Cornwall, Devon, IoW then they will simply be sold for a huge profit.

That won't be interesting at all.

I'm not sure.

Theres few cash buyers.

Most will buy with mortgages.

Bank lending is not going up.

 

 

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