Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Wight Flight]

Assume every second home is let as a holiday let. 

Work out a notional income.

Tax the owner on that income.

Especially if the owner lives overseas.

They did something very similar in Portugal.

 

[One percent]

4 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Assume every second home is let as a holiday let. 

Work out a notional income.

Tax the owner on that income.

Especially if the owner lives overseas.

They did something very similar in Portugal.

 

How would the tax be collected if the owner is overseas? 

[Wight Flight]

6 minutes ago, One percent said:

How would the tax be collected if the owner is overseas? 

You send them the bill.

They have a slight problem that they have an asset in our country.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

How would the tax be collected if the owner is overseas? 

You write a letter. Details are at LR , with an address.

I found my sister was the owner of a couple of houses this way. She didn't know.

No response then  UKgov repos.

If you want to hide money from government then buy a fucking house.

 

[Noallegiance]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

If only, the reality is they're for extracting other peoples wages.

Posted this on other house price topic -

Boris does another speech on "levelling up". 

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1OyKAEDolRbKb

DT does article about young being priced out of the southern property market.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/want-buy-first-home-south-england-now-impossible/

Property in the south of England is now almost entirely shut off to first-time buyers who do not have extra support, thanks to the pandemic house price boom.

First-time buyers cannot get mortgages to cover the cost of purchasing an average priced home in the South West, South East, east of England and London if they have only a 10pc deposit, according to analysis by data firm TwentyCi.

In the south of England, properties cost on average 5.78 times salaries, known as the loan-to-income ratio. Tighter mortgage rules that came in after the financial crisis mean few banks will loan worth more than 4.5 times a buyer’s salary.

This means that in areas where the loan-to-income ratio exceeds 4.5, it is effectively impossible for a first-time buyer to purchase without a deposit larger than 10pc. In these places, entry-level purchasers either need massive savings, support from Government schemes or help from the so-called "Bank of Mum and Dad".

ADVERTISING

TwentyCi measured the average price of an entry level property in each region against the median income. In inner London, a first-time buyer with a 10pc deposit would need to borrow 7.7 times their salary to purchase a typical £350,000 property.

Even in the South West, where the average entry-level property is worth around half that at £165,000, a first-time buyer would need to borrow five times their salary.

By contrast, in the North East and Scotland, the most affordable locations, first-time buyers with a 10pc deposit would only need to borrow 2.3 times their salaries.

Colin Bradshaw, of TwentyCi, said: “For people in the South of England it is now impossible without additional funds over and above an average mortgage and a 10pc deposit.”

An acute shortage of supply in the wake of the pandemic has pushed prices further out of the range of affordability. Outside London, the whole of England and Wales has between 1.7 and two months’ worth of property supply left to sell. This is half the historic norm. 

The number of new listings for sale was down 4.5pc compared to 2019, while the numbers of agreed sales and exchanges were up 33pc and 17.5pc respectively.

The massive imbalance between demand and supply means that the average asking price in the UK halfway through 2021 was £391,000, up from £361,000 in the same period in 2019 – a jump of 8.3pc.

The lack of homes for sale, combined with a slowdown in demand as the stamp duty holiday tapers will likely bring transactions back in line with pre-Covid levels, said TwentyCi.

 

Still no mention of the main driver of prices; out-of-control credit for 30+ years outpacing wage growth.

[leonardratso]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

You write a letter. Details are at LR , with an address.

I found my sister was the owner of a couple of houses this way. She didn't know.

No response then  UKgov repos.

If you want to hide money from government then buy a fucking house.

 

thats interesting, who had signed her up? someone she knew? could she have claimed them in that case?

ah sorry, im getting hold of the wrong end of the stick, yes i get it now.

Edited July 15, 2021 by leonardratso

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, leonardratso said:

thats interesting, who had signed her up? someone she knew? could she have claimed them in that case?

ah sorry, im getting hold of the wrong end of the stick, yes i get it now.

Idiot ex BF.

Said same thing.

Oh, she said, I sign lots of stuff.

When they split ahd argument of her n my mum, going oh your sis 'owns' xx. Has she got the deeds?

No.

So I spent ~50 going thru addresses, checking ownership.

 

[sancho panza]

Mar has updated on RM but Feb saw a raft of revisions so likely some more transactions will get registered late than usual but that's lockdown I suppose.

LE2 is a postcode with 44,000 hosueholds,mainly terraces then semis,then flats,then detached in term of market share.

Mazing to see so few flats/terraces transacting,skewing average prices higher as they don't don't mix adjust.

Markets are defo not moving at the margins.

longer term picture shows how anaemic volumes are

[Democorruptcy]

On 15/07/2021 at 08:51, BoSon said:

Mandate full occupancy of all accommodation. Any left empty for more than 30 days that aren't undergoing substantials work or are inhabitable are added to the council's version of airb&b for social housing allowing short term use.

£100 a night empty property fine?

100% Capital Gains Tax on any second home or holiday let sold, that was at some time a residential home.

[haroldshand]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Mar has updated on RM but Feb saw a raft of revisions so likely some more transactions will get registered late than usual but that's lockdown I suppose.

LE2 is a postcode with 44,000 hosueholds,mainly terraces then semis,then flats,then detached in term of market share.

Mazing to see so few flats/terraces transacting,skewing average prices higher as they don't don't mix adjust.

Markets are defo not moving at the margins.

longer term picture shows how anaemic volumes are

All during covid and a screwed economy, "Oh what a lovely war"(I mean pandemic)

[wherebee]

On 15/07/2021 at 17:51, BoSon said:

Mandate full occupancy of all accommodation. Any left empty for more than 30 days that aren't undergoing substantials work or are inhabitable are added to the council's version of airb&b for social housing allowing short term use.

sigh.  you obviously work in the public sector.

Do you have an exemption for properties marked for sale?  If no, you'd better sell your house within 30 days.  If not... well, I am going to put all my empty properties on the market at 20% about market rates.  They'll never sell, but you can't touch them.

[BoSon]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

sigh.  you obviously work in the public sector.

Do you have an exemption for properties marked for sale?  If no, you'd better sell your house within 30 days.  If not... well, I am going to put all my empty properties on the market at 20% about market rates.  They'll never sell, but you can't touch them.

No, I work for myself, just support the idea that while there are so many empty properties (either through lack of use or as investment rather than accommodation) perhaps utilise them instead of cramming the unfortunate homeless (not chosen lifestyle through drug/alcohol abuse shunning the support system that is already there for them) into temporary accommodation not meant to be used long term as a home. A properly run house sitting service where the council is insured for any damage or theft so no losers in it if the property owner gets some incentive such as avoidance of punitive taxes on empty properties.

I have a relative who has been 'renovating' a house for over 10 years. Prime candidate for this as they are sitting on the property as an investment with no intention of letting it out, while others in the location are stuggling to find decent housing. People like that need to be less selfish. Homes shouldn't be investment vehicles, there aren't enough to go around.

[reformed nice guy]

Easiest way is just to massively reduce migration to less than 10k per year in.

Birth rate is less than 2 and plenty escape each year so there will be less people to prop up house prices.

Complicated rules just allow for loop holes and cheating.

[Harley]

On 16/07/2021 at 14:59, sancho panza said:

......

Longer term picture shows how anaemic volumes are

Oh dear, I think us chartist have a pretty good idea what probably happens next!

Edited July 18, 2021 by Harley

[sancho panza]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

Oh dear, I think us chartist have a pretty good idea what probably happens next!

Frightens me given I udnerstand a little of how FRB works.

Fishers paradox anyone?

[Hancock]

15 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Frightens me given I udnerstand a little of how FRB works.

Fishers paradox anyone?

Thing is due to landlords taking houses off the market over the last 2 decades, then it is inevitable less houses will get sold.

No matter where i look up north prices have gone insane, and this includes old mining villages in Northumberland, where not so long ago they'd struggle to give houses away.

 

Edited July 19, 2021 by Hancock

[spygirl]

This drivel popped up -

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/buying-mortgages/my-mortgagefree-home-move-bromley-to-norfolk-b946787.html

With a business hit hard by Covid and a mortgage shortfall due within months, Tracey and Andy Fleming decided their best option was a total life swap, from suburban south London to rural Norfolk.

In the process the couple, who had lived in Bromley for 30 years, managed to clear their entire mortgage debt and now enjoy a new pace of life without the financial burden of housing costs.

OK .... not paid off the mortgage after 30 years???

"We'd been thinking about moving for some time — we had a shortfall on our mortgage and it was looming. When Covid hit our business went with it and made that shortfall even more of a reality," says Tracey.

What do you mean by 'shortfall on our mortgage'????

The couple had what they say was a relatively low mortgage for London prices at £470 per month but they were also paying storage costs for their prop hire business.

Having been in their house for 30 years they also had a mortgage shortfall (£86,000) worth more than they'd originally paid for the house (£85,000) after extending and remortgaging over the decades. "Something had to give," says Tracey.

Hold on. After 30 years paying the mortgage they owe more than the bought the house for.

No imagine what happens when London prices get stuck for ~30 eyars, just the North has.

Or where th IO mortgages that madu p the bulk of London mortgages 2002->2014ish come home to roost.

They particularly wanted to be in a village with a pub - "and blow me, we've moved into a village that has nothing, no pub, no shop," says Tracey.

They're now a three and a half-mile drive to a farm shop or butcher "but it's not like three and a half miles in Bromley. We used to drive an hour into London for work and now we drive for an hour and we're somewhere completely different surrounded by amazing skies, sounds and scenery.

They wont last.

Even though I come from a village, it has a couple of shops and a few pubs.

Living in the countryside with no facilities will drive you nuts.

Fucked with no public transport.

Buy a paper - 5 miles drive.

Buy some milk - 5 mile drive

etc.

Theyll spend what little pension they have on petrol.

 

 

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

They wont last.

Even though I come from a village, it has a couple of shops and a few pubs.

Living in the countryside with no facilities will drive you nuts.

Fucked with no public transport.

Buy a paper - 5 miles drive.

Buy some milk - 5 mile drive

etc.

Theyll spend what little pension they have on petrol.

I did a CBT course in London which ran on Sunday mornings and the training was excellent, all done by volunteers with the aim of making you a safe rider rather than just getting you through the CBT.  We were all on geared 125s except one, I'll call her Joan as that was her name, who was a lot older than the rest of us and was on a twist and go scooter.

She had been a cleaner for many years in the Channel Islands and was now retiring to rural East Anglia via West London where, owing as you say to the lack of public transport and being unable to drive a car - as in no licence, she was relying upon the scooter to get her around.

There was only one problem.  She was the worst bike rider ever; I wasn't very good but I was Barry Sheene compared to Joan.

The scooter had two controls - accelerator and brake - and whenever she became flustered Joan had a habit of mixing them up.

The training took place in the car park of a tech college next to its playing fields.  A couple of times as we practised our figure of eights without putting our feet down in the car park we would see Joan, who was being separately tutored, roar off over the playing fields as she had mixed up the controls again.

One time she did this at a rail than ran around part of the car park and managed to jam the scooter under it.

My mate was more of a natural and passed a couple of weeks before I did.  As I was thanking them and saying goodbye I asked about Joan; "I'm not sure that we could ever pass her with a clean conscience." was the reply.

I don't know how she managed in the end.

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Frank Hovis said:

I did a CBT course in London which ran on Sunday mornings and the training was excellent, all done by volunteers with the aim of making you a safe rider rather than just getting you through the CBT.  We were all on geared 125s except one, I'll call her Joan as that was her name, who was a lot older than the rest of us and was on a twist and go scooter.

She had been a cleaner for many years in the Channel Islands and was now retiring to rural East Anglia via West London where, owing as you say to the lack of public transport and being unable to drive a car - as in no licence, she was relying upon the scooter to get her around.

There was only one problem.  She was the worst bike rider ever; I wasn't very good but I was Barry Sheene compared to Joan.

The scooter had two controls - accelerator and brake - and whenever she became flustered Joan had a habit of mixing them up.

The training took place in the car park of a tech college next to its playing fields.  A couple of times as we practised our figure of eights without putting our feet down in the car park we would see Joan, who was being separately tutored, roar off over the playing fields as she had mixed up the controls again.

One time she did this at a rail than ran around part of the car park and managed to jam the scooter under it.

My mate was more of a natural and passed a couple of weeks before I did.  As I was thanking them and saying goodbye I asked about Joan; "I'm not sure that we could ever pass her with a clean conscience." was the reply.

I don't know how she managed in the end.

The local council support a scheme to rent low cost scooters to young/low paid people, so they can get to work.

I could not imagine worse transport for the area.

You got pretty steep hills that a 100cc scooter would struggle to get the skinniest of teens up.

Then the exposed moors, with horrendous side winds that can blow you under a hgv.

Oct-Mar it's cold n wet n sometimes icy.

Summer you got hordes of idiots driving like Mr Magoo.

My mum was having problems getting on the bus. Shes not disabled or owt. Just the bus fills on with freeloading oaps in either whitby or Scabby. No seats.

So I have been pondering getting an ebike.

She could nip into town in 20mins, going along old railway line.

No waiting fir buses that may or may not turn up. And may or may not have seats.

I had been pondering about getting a road-MX hybrid - nothing bug, 250cc max. With the zim of pottering about the side roads n farm tracks.

I'm not off yo Dhaka, so dont want a two wheeled tractor.

Equally I dont want a noisy motors bike whose engine needs stripping every month.

The original Yamaha dual sport 200c would do me. But they made the current ones complex.

I'd be ok with one of those large 3 wheeled scooters. However I refuse to be the first or first 100th who buts one and gets laughed at.

So it might be an ebike.

 

 

[spygirl]

15 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I did a CBT course in London which ran on Sunday mornings and the training was excellent, all done by volunteers with the aim of making you a safe rider rather than just getting you through the CBT.  We were all on geared 125s except one, I'll call her Joan as that was her name, who was a lot older than the rest of us and was on a twist and go scooter.

She had been a cleaner for many years in the Channel Islands and was now retiring to rural East Anglia via West London where, owing as you say to the lack of public transport and being unable to drive a car - as in no licence, she was relying upon the scooter to get her around.

There was only one problem.  She was the worst bike rider ever; I wasn't very good but I was Barry Sheene compared to Joan.

The scooter had two controls - accelerator and brake - and whenever she became flustered Joan had a habit of mixing them up.

The training took place in the car park of a tech college next to its playing fields.  A couple of times as we practised our figure of eights without putting our feet down in the car park we would see Joan, who was being separately tutored, roar off over the playing fields as she had mixed up the controls again.

One time she did this at a rail than ran around part of the car park and managed to jam the scooter under it.

My mate was more of a natural and passed a couple of weeks before I did.  As I was thanking them and saying goodbye I asked about Joan; "I'm not sure that we could ever pass her with a clean conscience." was the reply.

I don't know how she managed in the end.

The point still stands - if you moving to middle of nowhere, with no connection or facilities then you are fucked.

You get them in whitby, moving from bigger places, then complaining about lack of facilities.

Facilities n shops onoy get built when you've got the mass of young families to spend and make them viable.

Oaps dont spent money and duck up the limited public services. Then whinge about bew house building.

 

[spygirl]

Just give you a good example of the innumerate fuckwittery that riddles UK finsec/property reporting.

https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2021/07/23/income-multiple-needed-by-first-time-buyers-running-at-5-6-times-nationwide/

Nationwide has revealed that the multiple of average income to value of a first-time buyer property is running at 5.6 times, higher by 2.4 percentage points compared to the long-run average of 3.2 times.

Besides, You'll be v unlikely to get a mortgage at more than 4.5 income.

 

[Wight Flight]

13 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

My mate was more of a natural and passed a couple of weeks before I did.  As I was thanking them and saying goodbye I asked about Joan; "I'm not sure that we could ever pass her with a clean conscience." was the reply.

Ahem. The CBT course is meant to be five hours or so.

If your mate passed a fortnight before you, I don't really think you were cut out for that mode of transport.

[Frank Hovis]

25 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Ahem. The CBT course is meant to be five hours or so.

If your mate passed a fortnight before you, I don't really think you were cut out for that mode of transport.

That set up was very different; fees were token and they wanted you to be very good before they passed you.

The guy running it had an MBE for services to motorbike safety.

It was the best CBT in the country IMHO; most of them just push people through in a long afternoon as you say.

[Herby]

Can't believe banks are offering 120% mortgages again.. 

https://www.scottishwidows.co.uk/bank/existingcustomers/producttransfer/interest_rates.html

"EXISTING CUSTOMERS - MORTGAGES

Professional and Flexible Mortgage Interest Rates

Rates available up to 120% Loan to Value"

🤦

[AWW]

On 16/07/2021 at 14:59, sancho panza said:

Mar has updated on RM but Feb saw a raft of revisions so likely some more transactions will get registered late than usual but that's lockdown I suppose.

LE2 is a postcode with 44,000 hosueholds,mainly terraces then semis,then flats,then detached in term of market share.

Mazing to see so few flats/terraces transacting,skewing average prices higher as they don't don't mix adjust.

Markets are defo not moving at the margins.

longer term picture shows how anaemic volumes are

Increasing prices on decreasing volume only ever ends one way.

The thing is, will you still be alive when the market reaches the edge of the cliff?