Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Don Coglione]

56 minutes ago, spunko said:

I've never been to Winchester, what's the appeal? I just assumed it to be like Rochester, or Oxford, the centre is very old and quaint, but the rest is just 1960s sprawl and could be anywhere.

It is the most over-rated city in the UK; full of dossers, beggars and London-by-the-M3 wankers.

DOSBODders excluded, obviously...

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

I've never been to Winchester, what's the appeal? I just assumed it to be like Rochester, or Oxford, the centre is very old and quaint, but the rest is just 1960s sprawl and could be anywhere.

Its a nice town, and hasn't been enriched.

But you're right, unless you have megabucks the sprawl is no better than anywhere else ... though as the article states the traffic isn't too bad.

The schools are very good.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Hancock

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

I've never been to Winchester, what's the appeal? I just assumed it to be like Rochester, or Oxford, the centre is very old and quaint, but the rest is just 1960s sprawl and could be anywhere.

AFAICT - Its not Soton.

These places are looking very very  stretched.

Any place that is way away and relies on commuting to London dies a death when IRs raise andor London falls.

Assuming that ~2 days becomes standard for London jobs - and most high paying London work can be down well away, then all the 30-90min commuting are going to get hammered as people can move a lot further out.

See - 

 

 

 

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

I've never been to Winchester, what's the appeal? I just assumed it to be like Rochester, or Oxford, the centre is very old and quaint, but the rest is just 1960s sprawl and could be anywhere.

It's very country-fied. Easy to walk into the South downs. And train to Waterloo in an hour.

I live in a 1980s estate house, I can walk into the city on a quiet road or by the river in 25mins. My house is well spaced from it's neighbours, in a cul de sac. 

Compared to the new builds on Kings Barton it is paradise.

As was pointed out by @Hancockthe schools are excellent. It has the best 6th form college in the South. 

Prices are a major major issue. My doctor daughter And her doctor boyfriend would like to buy, but cannot. And that is crazy.

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Popuplights

[Don Coglione]

31 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Its a nice town, and hasn't been enriched.

But you're right, unless you have megabucks the sprawl is no better than anywhere else ... though as the article states the traffic isn't too bad.

The schools are very good.

You are right about the schools, from what I am told. I suspect this has something to do with the high house prices - people move to Winchester to send their kids to the excellent state schools (assuming they can't afford Winchester College or St. Swithun's). I imagine it would be a decent place to raise a family.

On the other hand, who the fuck would want to go to Winchester University, which used to be a teacher training college?

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

You are right about the schools, from what I am told. I suspect this has something to do with the high house prices - people move to Winchester to send their kids to the excellent state schools (assuming they can't afford Winchester College or St. Swithun's). I imagine it would be a decent place to raise a family.

Agreed, my kids enjoyed a good education. I wish I could have afforded St Swithuns for the girls, but I couldn't. 

The schools are definitely a factor. 

[King Penda]

On 10/08/2021 at 17:02, Don Coglione said:

Not that my situation is relevant, but I recently bought a house (to live in), after a period of renting. In my adult life, the split between owning and renting is about 50:50. As posted previously, my former rental went from £1250 to £1600 per month and was, frankly, shit.

I believe that high house prices are bad for the economy; as I often say, is housing were free, think how much would be spent in the real economy. However, this is not Utopia.

A slow, real-terms, fall in house prices is the best outcome I can envisage. An outright crash would devastate the economy. I believe this is being engineered, as the voting masses realise that their kids can't and won't move out. Pockets of insanity, including much of London, will see nominal falls - indeed, this is already happening. Over-leveraged landlords are fucked, especially once HMRC comes back from its Covid holiday.

I also believe that the (trillions?) of "equity" locked in housing will be picked open by the government, though I have no idea as to the mechanism. 

Under occupying is a reverse bedroom tax rebranding council tax the list is endless what they could do

[sleepwello'nights]

On 10/08/2021 at 16:11, HousePriceMania said:

The only fix for that is a crash.

 

So far that crash looks unlikely outside London. I just looked on Rightmove at the area we moved from. There are 3 THREE detached house for sale today. Most years there are far more, even in mid summer. (granted the weather isn't like summer)

Whether its swapping equity or any other reason there are very few houses for sale. Supply and demand tend to balance out with price. There is little supply. 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

So far that crash looks unlikely outside London. I just looked on Rightmove at the area we moved from. There are 3 THREE detached house for sale today. Most years there are far more, even in mid summer. (granted the weather isn't like summer)

Whether its swapping equity or any other reason there are very few houses for sale. Supply and demand tend to balance out with price. There is little supply. 

Very true.I've never seen inventories this low in Liecester........iirc.

 

Certainly creates upwards pressure.I think part of it is people not being able to move due to jobs/furlough etc but then transactions are reasonable compared to last ten years .The only logical explanation msut be a dearth of FTBers/rise in investment demand.

Strange times.Hard market to read.

ALos worth noting the higher end of the rental market is empty at the minute.Noone's moving.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The only logical explanation msut be a dearth of FTBers/rise in investment demand.

Rise in the amount of landlords who own the property that once got traded, who are keeping it until the day they day.

 

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

So far that crash looks unlikely outside London. I just looked on Rightmove at the area we moved from. There are 3 THREE detached house for sale today.

PropertyLion shows the number of available properties on RM has halved outside of London.

I dont think that's because there is a queue of buyers, I think it's because no one wants to move with their jobs in jeopardy and the costs involved.

I hear rumours of the 150K a year lot in London borrowing big to buy in the SW while expecting to sell their London flats for top whack eventually.

It's insanity of the highest order , encourage by our debt pushing masters

[Sugarlips]

I note Halifax will lend to new borrowers at 0.83%

Meanwhile Shadowstats reckon real inflation is 13%

what could possibly go wrong

[Frank Hovis]

Minor drop in Cornwall last month, <1%, though that alone might serve as a wake-up call to anyone who was previously tempted to pile in to a very overheated market.

I await the "I paid £400k for a shed with a sea view and now no bank will let me remortgage because they say it's not worth £400k" sob stories.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

Minor drop in Cornwall last month, <1%, though that alone might serve as a wake-up call to anyone who was previously tempted to pile in to a very overheated market.

I await the "I paid £400k for a shed with a sea view and now no bank will let me remortgage because they say it's not worth £400k" sob stories.

I didn't run the UKPropertyLion index for July due to holidays but it does look from some of the posts I see on the twitter thread that London and the SW are starting to fall.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

PropertyLion shows the number of available properties on RM has halved outside of London.

I dont think that's because there is a queue of buyers, I think it's because no one wants to move with their jobs in jeopardy and the costs involved.

I hear rumours of the 150K a year lot in London borrowing big to buy in the SW while expecting to sell their London flats for top whack eventually.

It's insanity of the highest order , encourage by our debt pushing masters

I think that's it.I've been showing for some time in LE2(a postcode with probably more terraces and flats than anything else out of 44,000 households)

Here's some data that would scare the crap out of me if I owned any barclays/lloyds bank shares.

I've just been on Rightmove and there's 393 houses for sale in Leicester LE2

83 detached

70 semi detached

84 Terraces

131 flats

24 Bungalows

 

Below is the dataset for transactions.80 is the average for the last ten years so I'll use February's data to work out months inventory

393/80=4.9 months inventroy

Detached 83/15=5.5 months

Semi Detached 70/35= 2 months inventory

Terraced 84/22=3.8 months inventory

Flats 131/7=18.7 months inventory

 

So basically,we have a hosuing crah on our hands,we jsut don't know it yet.

 

3 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

I note Halifax will lend to new borrowers at 0.83%

Meanwhile Shadowstats reckon real inflation is 13%

what could possibly go wrong

I think a huge dislocation is inbound.

Cut a long story short,Mrs P wants to buy so I got a mortgage broker friend to run the figures and basically even with a 25% deposit and one of the best jobs in the private sector round these parts,she was looking at a smaller house than we live in.Joint mortgage figures got us a 4 bed detached newish build and a slave like repayment every month.I want to have the option of retiring in a year or two and neither of us wants to go full time again(and me certainly not for the next 20 years)

Question is who's buying these places in Leicester.People msut be levered up to the gills.

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think that's it.I've been showing for some time in LE2(a postcode with probably more terraces and flats than anything else out of 44,000 households)

Here's some data that would scare the crap out of me if I owned any barclays/lloyds bank shares.

I've just been on Rightmove and there's 393 houses for sale in Leicester LE2

83 detached

70 semi detached

84 Terraces

131 flats

24 Bungalows

 

Below is the dataset for transactions.80 is the average for the last ten years so I'll use February's data to work out months inventory

393/80=4.9 months inventroy

Detached 83/15=5.5 months

Semi Detached 70/35= 2 months inventory

Terraced 84/22=3.8 months inventory

Flats 131/7=18.7 months inventory

 

So basically,we have a hosuing crah on our hands,we jsut don't know it yet.

 

I think a huge dislocation is inbound.

Cut a long story short,Mrs P wants to buy so I got a mortgage broker friend to run the figures and basically even with a 25% deposit and one of the best jobs in the private sector round these parts,she was looking at a smaller house than we live in.Joint mortgage figures got us a 4 bed detached newish build and a slave like repayment every month.I want to have the option of retiring in a year or two and neither of us wants to go full time again(and me certainly not for the next 20 years)

Question is who's buying these places in Leicester.People msut be levered up to the gills.

Thanks for that SP.  Looks like sales have collapsed in April at the end of the 1st stamp duty cut reversion, I wonder if they rebound then collapse again, the stats on flats is clearly significant too, if the bottom of the pyramid cant sell then no one is moving.

Absolutely nothing points to a functioning housing market and these headline figures we see about %rises must surely be a statistically anomaly based on people fleeing London or other large conurbations like Manchester.

When the music stops this time there is going to be the mother of all holes.

There's little point in buying a house other than to protect your cash and/or speculate of massive wage inflation clearing any debt you have, which is what I am considering post October once we start seeing the real fall out from this mess.

Here's another vacinated MP who's not tested positive for covid.

The vaccines dont work that well, it at all, if 1000s start dying this winter then we should see a collapse in pretty much everything.

 

 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Absolutely nothing points to a functioning housing market and these headline figures we see about %rises must surely be a statistically anomaly based on people fleeing London or other large conurbations like Manchester.

This whole thing with people moving from say London to the SW, so they can work from home, enjoy the seaside, was always going to end up with them getting their arses slapped.

Bring it on.

[eek]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Here's another vacinated MP who's not tested positive for covid.

The vaccines dont work that well, it at all, if 1000s start dying this winter then we should see a collapse in pretty much everything.

Offtopic but a vaccine doesn't stop you catching it the disease, it ensures your body has antibodies that know how to react quickly enough that the symptoms are not serious

This is basic biology that most people seem to forget. 

 

Also flats are not necessarily the bottom of the pyramid - in a lot of existing areas the bottom will be old 2 up 2 down terraces. 

[Hancock]

16 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The vaccines dont work that well, it at all, if 1000s start dying this winter then we should see a collapse in pretty much everything

It feels inevitable that they're going to claim old people dying at a fairly normal rate is due to Covid.

In a way i hope they do as ive plenty of money to buy shares at such a time.

[HousePriceMania]

@sancho panza

 

Leicester, just over from LE2, LE19

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/102376790#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

Blaby Road, Enderby, Leicester

 

See map

 

Guide Price

£275,000

Monthly mortgage payments

Reduced yesterday

Price Change History

11/08/2021	Price changed from £320,000 to £275,000
10/06/2021	Price changed from £330,000 to £320,000
15/05/2021	Price changed from £350,000 to £330,000
01/02/2021	Initial entry found: £350,000

Edited August 12, 2021 by HousePriceMania

[sancho panza]

53 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thanks for that SP.  Looks like sales have collapsed in April at the end of the 1st stamp duty cut reversion, I wonder if they rebound then collapse again, the stats on flats is clearly significant too, if the bottom of the pyramid cant sell then no one is moving.

Absolutely nothing points to a functioning housing market and these headline figures we see about %rises must surely be a statistically anomaly based on people fleeing London or other large conurbations like Manchester.

When the music stops this time there is going to be the mother of all holes.

There's little point in buying a house other than to protect your cash and/or speculate of massive wage inflation clearing any debt you have, which is what I am considering post October once we start seeing the real fall out from this mess.

Sales are being registered more slwoly than previously.Normally 70% registered in first three months,then otehrs dribble in over the first 6 months.Don't read too muc into April figures imho.

The average hosue rpice figure is getting skewed because they aren't mix adjsuting adeqautely ie if you divide LE2 total sales revenue by number of hosues then it's higher,if you adjutst for flats not selling then it probably isn't.

Big issue in terms of structure is BTL LL's are the main owners of flats outside London.Very few are aware that their own homes are at risk in the default chain.When we talk Fisher-debt edeflation theory,these market actors are key to the unwind.They own a disproportionate share of the illiquid section of the market and will msot likely all try and squeeze through the exit at the same time.

Interesting times.

[sancho panza]

46 minutes ago, eek said:

Also flats are not necessarily the bottom of the pyramid - in a lot of existing areas the bottom will be old 2 up 2 down terraces. 

in terms of market strucvture they are the section where the illiquidity is at it's worst  by soem distance.

bank balance sheets don't care if it's a terrace or a detached if it sells a loss they have to adjsut their leverage levels.

[King Penda]

22 hours ago, sleepwello&#x27;nights said:

So far that crash looks unlikely outside London. I just looked on Rightmove at the area we moved from. There are 3 THREE detached house for sale today. Most years there are far more, even in mid summer. (granted the weather isn't like summer)

Whether its swapping equity or any other reason there are very few houses for sale. Supply and demand tend to balance out with price. There is little supply. 

3 bed x council semis with drives and big gardens are gone in a few days mind I surpose that’s there selling point

[King Penda]

4 hours ago, eek said:

Offtopic but a vaccine doesn't stop you catching it the disease, it ensures your body has antibodies that know how to react quickly enough that the symptoms are not serious

This is basic biology that most people seem to forget. 

 

Also flats are not necessarily the bottom of the pyramid - in a lot of existing areas the bottom will be old 2 up 2 down terraces. 

Yes true like my area. But the main buyers are not young couples there are a couple of single men I know who have bought after divorce it’s predominantly landlords buying 

[dnb24]

interesting wolfstreet piece- and something which is starting to show its head here in the UK-
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/08/10/this-reddit-lament-sums-up-wonderfully-what-lots-of-home-buyers-will-grapple-with-as-housing-market-normalizes-and-work-from-home-fizzles/

As wages are being cut for WFH-
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/aug/12/google-staff-could-see-pay-cut-if-they-opt-to-work-from-home

People being forced back to offices
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bosses-wrong-force-workers-go-24749359

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/09/civil-servants-in-london-could-see-pay-cut-if-they-resist-office-return

Plus furloughs ending.

Anecdotally i know two people who’ve moved to the midlands thinking they’ll save money on mortgage/rent, only to now be told they’ve got to go into the London office twice a week- costing them an extra £700/800 a month to do so- wiping out any savings they’ve made from the move north.