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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


haroldshand

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On 18/10/2021 at 14:44, Long time lurking said:

Whats the betting 

 

I think they're in that place where they have to, i was mocked by the goldbugs the other week when suggesting interest rates will rise in November, but even if they do go up to 3% if inflation is 5% its still negative.

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1 hour ago, Hancock said:

I think they're in that place where they have to, i was mocked by the goldbugs the other week when suggesting interest rates will rise in November, but even if they do go up to 3% if inflation is 5% its still negative.

If interest rates reach 3% it really doesn't matter what inflation is.

It will be game over.

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HousePriceMania
10 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

If interest rates reach 3% it really doesn't matter what inflation is.

It will be game over.

It'll never be game over, the system is rigged.

 

image.thumb.png.3b2d5dbfb4d0687a71fce2b30254f04a.png

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13 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

If interest rates reach 3% it really doesn't matter what inflation is.

It will be game over.

Nah it'll just mean house prices get cheaper and money goes into more productive industry.

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4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Image

 

House prices will clearly go up for ever....

 

That's a very interesting graph indeed.

I have said many times that we seem to be headed back to the Victorian era with a majority serf population in sub-standard housing and perpetually in debt.

Well there you have it - I would say that unless something drastic happens then we are climbing back to the 12x earnings multiple.

The places I have seen people living in over the last few years, in a professional capacity, would not be unfamiliar to Dickens.

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Chewing Grass
11 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Well there you have it - I would say that unless something drastic happens then we are climbing back to the 12x earnings multiple.

The Great Covid Reset is WW1 again.

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3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

The Great Covid Reset is WW1 again.

 

I genuinely hope so.

I certainly don't want house prices to go to 12x, I want them to crash, but I fear that what I want to happen is irrelevant.

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HousePriceMania
13 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

That's a very interesting graph indeed.

I have said many times that we seem to be headed back to the Victorian era with a majority serf population in sub-standard housing and perpetually in debt.

Well there you have it - I would say that unless something drastic happens then we are climbing back to the 12x earnings multiple.

The places I have seen people living in over the last few years, in a professional capacity, would not be unfamiliar to Dickens.

You have to hope for our children's sake that we see a collapse, if it continues going up we have a real problem, we could well see a revolution in the UK ( ours is long over due ).

The's a big difference from the 1900s wrt to % home ownership, work conditions, world trade etc. 

I fear you could be right though and the establishments idea is to push them up and up and up, while buying the stock using magicked up cash.  There's not we can do about that other than ultimately fight back.

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HousePriceMania

I added another line and some text

 

image.thumb.png.ffbe14498c8ab6673337dd10b989f054.png

In 2008 they stopped prices falling to that line, because the financial system was ****ed.

The question is, is the financial system ****ed still or are these evil shysters about to shaft the debt monkeys ?

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30 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I added another line and some text

 

image.thumb.png.ffbe14498c8ab6673337dd10b989f054.png

In 2008 they stopped prices falling to that line, because the financial system was ****ed.

The question is, is the financial system ****ed still or are these evil shysters about to shaft the debt monkeys ?

I look at that chart and wonder if the new minimum level is 6x average earnings given the ratios 4x joint earnings that banks are willing to lend at. 

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HousePriceMania
28 minutes ago, eek said:

I look at that chart and wonder if the new minimum level is 6x average earnings given the ratios 4x joint earnings that banks are willing to lend at. 

Depends if people can feed their kids.

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HousePriceMania
1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I genuinely hope so.

I certainly don't want house prices to go to 12x, I want them to crash, but I fear that what I want to happen is irrelevant.

As if by magic, this just popped up:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125623163/dramatic-separation-between-house-prices-and-wages-as-home-affordability-drops-further

 

The national house price-to-income ratio also declined over the February to May quarter, with prices moving from 11.4 to 12.4 times average wages.

 

So, there is plenty scope for the British establishment to totally and utterly destroy people in the UK.

 

Note the double speak "declined"  

Edited by HousePriceMania
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3 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

The places I have seen people living in over the last few years, in a professional capacity, would not be unfamiliar to Dickens.

Dickens spent some time living in my little village. It is where he met Miss Haversham.

I wish I could afford the Dickens' life.

 

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Nothing new here but it's nice to see some sense being written for once: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/oct/22/are-uk-house-prices-ever-going-to-crash-we-ask-the-expert

Quote

Social geographer Danny Dorling says the cost of buying a home will fall, one day – but what’s harder to predict is when

(Apologies for the G)

Edited by Sue Lowe
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2 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Seems like a token gesture, sparse on details but nothing rules out A) paying this support to the tennants, who won't pass it on, or B) The landlord getting tiny installments on the arrears in exchange for not seeking eviction. 

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AlfredTheLittle
7 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Seems like a token gesture, sparse on details but nothing rules out A) paying this support to the tennants, who won't pass it on, or B) The landlord getting tiny installments on the arrears in exchange for not seeking eviction. 

I think they're probably doing it as quietly as possible because they know it won't go down well

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It is interesting watching the 100+ objections coming in to the planning application for 9 homes on the land opposite where I lived last year.

The objections are the usual access / wildlife / green space bollocks, and a lot state that there is no need for more housing or they will just be bought by second home owners.

Knowing the area very well, at least 70% of the objections are from people that don't live there outside the summer.

What they are really objecting to is that the value of their holiday home might be affected.

Why don't they all just club together, bung in £10k each and buy the land to keep it as Greenfield?

 

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1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

It is interesting watching the 100+ objections coming in to the planning application for 9 homes on the land opposite where I lived last year.

The objections are the usual access / wildlife / green space bollocks, and a lot state that there is no need for more housing or they will just be bought by second home owners.

Knowing the area very well, at least 70% of the objections are from people that don't live there outside the summer.

What they are really objecting to is that the value of their holiday home might be affected.

Why don't they all just club together, bung in £10k each and buy the land to keep it as Greenfield?

 

Its the national passtime.

Why the fuck the govt/councils cant just ringfence certain areas that cant be built on, and everywhere else is fair game to end this bollocks.

No doubt the usual suspect boomers on taxpayer funded pensions, who know how to play the system. Nicest thing i wish such scum is a brick in the face.

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16 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

It is interesting watching the 100+ objections coming in to the planning application for 9 homes on the land opposite where I lived last year.

The objections are the usual access / wildlife / green space bollocks, and a lot state that there is no need for more housing or they will just be bought by second home owners.

Knowing the area very well, at least 70% of the objections are from people that don't live there outside the summer.

What they are really objecting to is that the value of their holiday home might be affected.

Why don't they all just club together, bung in £10k each and buy the land to keep it as Greenfield?

 

As my wife points out to anyone who asks - if you don't own the view / land you have no real say in what happens to it. 

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HousePriceMania

Could we  be at the ideal time to buy a house ?

Image

I know my investments are well above that red line since 2007 so we are able to enter the next leg up for house prices ?

Maybe that's how the British establishment/banksters are seeing this.

 

 

Edited by HousePriceMania
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