Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[With a crooked smile]

19 hours ago, Hancock said:

i do hope it crashes and burns very soon and these people lose their shiny new 4x4s etc...

That's the attitude that I really disliked on ToS. 

Ultimately a lot of people took risks that they were happy to make. For many of them it's worked out well and if someone bought in the south during the early 2000s on a repayment basis a crash would have little affect on them financially. 

Blaming that person for getting on with it isn't the right attitude. Having a go at people who architected the finacial system ie politicians is fair game tho. 

There's people like The Count aka House price mania or whatever other name he's using that will never buy even if there is a crash because they still won't be able to afford it or they  lack balls to commit. 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

That's the attitude that I really disliked on ToS. 

Ultimately a lot of people took risks that they were happy to make. For many of them it's worked out well and if someone bought in the south during the early 2000s on a repayment basis a crash would have little affect on them financially. 

Blaming that person for getting on with it isn't the right attitude. Having a go at people who architected the finacial system ie politicians is fair game tho. 

There's people like The Count aka House price mania or whatever other name he's using that will never buy even if there is a crash because they still won't be able to afford it or they  lack balls to commit. 

To be fair i couldn't care less what attitude you think is the right one.

..... But the attitude i dislike is of all those stupid cunts who've overleveraged and been living like kings on other peoples coin, expecting a constant bailout with QE and ZIRP, as opposed to going without.

Its those stupid fucks who've done their part in turning England into the financialised shithole that its become, by bidding everything up with money they could never pay back without ZIRP.

They should have lost the lot in 2008/9.

Not a case of lacking the balls to commit for millions, its the fact the financially retarded victims you defend have outbid them.

... and i remember the  aforementioned stupid cunts of this country lapping up Gordon Browns line that 2008 was "the financial collapse that started in America" thus putting the blame elsewhere ... which is bollocks the UK's financial collapse was due to the financially retarded borrowing more money than they could pay back so they could make a fast buck on property, and buy cars and holidays this easy money provided for them.

[Frank Hovis]

2 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

There's people like The Count aka House price mania or whatever other name he's using that will never buy even if there is a crash because they still won't be able to afford it or they  lack balls to commit. 

 

Or they like the benefits that come from renting: no maintenance responsibility, no need to try to source tradesmen if something goes wrong, and if next door turns out to be the neighbours from hell or you obtain another job elsewhere then you can simply move at minimal cost.  

My investments have gone up by more than house prices so it would also have worked for me financially.

The only time that renting has looked like being the wrong idea has been since Lockdown where rentals in Cornwall have become scarce and shot up in price.

As it happens I did buy a house but wouldn't be bothered about not owning.

[With a crooked smile]

10 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Or they like the benefits that come from renting

Given the 1000s of comments The Count has made from his main account (and apparently he has others as he admitted on here) I'd guess he's not happy renting. 

Well done on the investments. Many wouldn't be that successful either due to using low yealding managed funds or lacking the skills know how to manage themselves. 

Given how fond The Count is of publishing graphs I'd love to see one of his investments minus renting costs vs house prices minus interest and maintenance costs. He claims to have done really well so not sure why he's so obsessed with houses prices. I thought he'd be on here giving us all lessons and tips on investing if it was going that well. 

[With a crooked smile]

23 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Its those stupid fucks who've done their part in turning England into the financialised shithole that its become, by bidding everything up with money they could never pay back without ZIRP.

Tbf if interest rates were 6% they would be bidding at what they could afford at that rate and someone would be criticising them saying I remember rates during ERM ect. 

 

25 minutes ago, Hancock said:

But the attitude i dislike is of all those stupid cunts who've overleveraged and been living like kings on other peoples coin, expecting a constant bailout with QE and ZIRP, as opposed to going without.

The average man on the street doesn't have that attitude at all its all in your head. Most people don't know what QE is and almost no one in RL knows what ZIRP is. 

[Frank Hovis]

5 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Given the 1000s of comments The Count has made from his main account (and apparently he has others as he admitted on here) I'd guess he's not happy renting. 

Well done on the investments. Many wouldn't be that successful either due to using low yealding managed funds or lacking the skills know how to manage themselves. 

Given how fond The Count is of publishing graphs I'd love to see one of his investments minus renting costs vs house prices minus interest and maintenance costs. He claims to have done really well so not sure why he's so obsessed with houses prices. I thought he'd be on here giving us all lessons and tips on investing if it was going that well. 

 

Most people have all or most of their investments in cash deposits and this is why houses appear to have rocketed when a big chunk of their apparent rise is really the devaluation of their cash.

RPI since 1987 has been 300%.

In terms of simple inflation if you have £300k in cash in 1987 allocated to buying a house but you don't do so and instead sit awaiting a "crash" then in 2021 simple inflation will have made that house cost £900k.  And then add in the effects of immigration on housing demand and people's property obsession and it's probably more like £1.5m.

This is the mistake that people who are awaiting a crash have made: they have sat in cash which is always likely to be a losing strategy.

 

 

Had however they had their money in the stock markets:

https://www.chartingyourfinancialfuture.com/investing/buy-stocks-not-houses-to-get-rich/

 

[Hancock]

20 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Tbf if interest rates were 6% they would be bidding at what they could afford at that rate and someone would be criticising them saying I remember rates during ERM ect. 

 

The average man on the street doesn't have that attitude at all its all in your head. Most people don't know what QE is and almost no one in RL knows what ZIRP is. 

Everyone knows what 0% (or close) mortgages mean.

[sleepwello'nights]

14 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Had however they had their money in the stock markets:

https://www.chartingyourfinancialfuture.com/investing/buy-stocks-not-houses-to-get-rich/

 

Would the average person or any reasonably sensible person who was not an experienced market investor use leverage to invest in the stock market?

That is a major factor. If you leverage to buy a house then no matter its nominal or inflation adjusted price you still have the same utility. Whereas if the stocks you chose fall to zero, as many high flying shares have, then you end up with nothing.

[Frank Hovis]

9 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Would the average person or any reasonably sensible person who was not an experienced market investor use leverage to invest in the stock market?

That is a major factor. If you leverage to buy a house then no matter its nominal or inflation adjusted price you still have the same utility. Whereas if the stocks you chose fall to zero, as many high flying shares have, then you end up with nothing.

 

I entirely agree about leverage.  I wouldn't make a leveraged investment even in property as I regard it as too risky.  I bought my house outright.

I however have always been primarily invested in indices (as in tracker funds that aim to match the indices by having the same holdings) rather than trying to pick winners in individual shares.

Shares may fall to zero but indices don't unless you have a communist revolution; and that wouldn't happen here.  Would it?

[GTM]

On 26/11/2021 at 13:06, Hancock said:

£300,000 for a house that is falling down in what is merely suburban Southampton, and if you've been to Soton recently you wouldn't be in a hurry to return such is its resemblance of the 3rd world.

To be fair, Soton is probably only 2nd world at the moment. We had a Pole join our company a few years ago. Yeah, there are quite a few Poles now, especially in Shirley said I. "Too many" was the reply. 😂

If you avoid the areas around St Mary's you could almost convince yourself that there isn't much of an issue with 3rd world scum.

[sleepwello'nights]

7 hours ago, GTM said:

 

If you avoid the areas around St Mary's you could almost convince yourself that there isn't much of an issue with 3rd world scum.

There is a nice new mosque built recently. Prominently sited near the city centre.

[Hancock]

8 hours ago, GTM said:

To be fair, Soton is probably only 2nd world at the moment. We had a Pole join our company a few years ago. Yeah, there are quite a few Poles now, especially in Shirley said I. "Too many" was the reply. 😂

If you avoid the areas around St Mary's you could almost convince yourself that there isn't much of an issue with 3rd world scum.

It was when i walked through the town centre and the park with my kid, just as it was getting dark that i formed this opinion, full of 3rd world gangs, certainly not a place you'd want any female you know walking through alone.

I actually worked on a short term contact as a painter, doing up rooms at the halls at Soton University just before Polands accession to the EU.

There was one Pole there who was somehow working via a UK limited company he created, anyway this got him an NI number .... he then got a mate from Poland over to work on this NI number and he was taking a cut of his wages ... but by the end of the job there were half a dozen or more all seemingly subcontracting to the person who got them the job ... no idea what the person at the bottom of the heap was earning but it must have been a pittance by the time everyone else had grabbed a slice.

Poles are ok i'd imagine there kids will integrate ... its the other lot that won't!

[spygirl]

Go go go ....

One in 16 homes changed hands in 2021: The busiest year for the UK's property market since the financial crisis has seen average house price jump £15k

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-10246797/One-16-homes-changed-hands-2021-says-Zoopla.html

Thats ~7% of stock changing hands.

However ..... even in the 90s crash, the number of sales were higher.

To get this highest! eva!!!! figure Rishi has bro0ught forward 2-3 years of sales.

And a lot of these sales will be crap new builds for HTB.

 

 

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Go go go ....

One in 16 homes changed hands in 2021: The busiest year for the UK's property market since the financial crisis has seen average house price jump £15k

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-10246797/One-16-homes-changed-hands-2021-says-Zoopla.html

Thats ~7% of stock changing hands.

However ..... even in the 90s crash, the number of sales were higher.

To get this highest! eva!!!! figure Rishi has bro0ught forward 2-3 years of sales.

And a lot of these sales will be crap new builds for HTB.

 

 

A lot of which, the BoE dont reckon are worth the mortgage - 

BoE concerned cladding crisis poses risk to UK financial stability

Central bank urges lenders to audit their exposure to homes that might be unsellable

https://www.ft.com/content/188b1a28-d204-4112-a4b9-1f4fbe1b46a5

Id add that Nationwide have the highest - only??? - exposed to HTB - they went balls in.

Most of the clad junk is HTB.

NW are in big big shit.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

A lot of which, the BoE dont reckon are worth the mortgage - 

BoE concerned cladding crisis poses risk to UK financial stability

Central bank urges lenders to audit their exposure to homes that might be unsellable

https://www.ft.com/content/188b1a28-d204-4112-a4b9-1f4fbe1b46a5

Id add that Nationwide have the highest - only??? - exposed to HTB - they went balls in.

Most of the clad junk is HTB.

NW are in big big shit.

 

 

The reality is the BoE is the risk to the UK financial stability, it's their policies that have pushed house prices to insane levels, thus causing the instability

[HousePriceMania]

Wonder where this line will go next....

 

Another reason for shorting rightmove.

[Boon]

In the near term it has to be down. As far as I can see in my areas the number of listings is still falling. This December might be a stand-out bad year - unlike last year no stamp duty incentive to rush deals. And also good reason to not let strangers in your home, lest you catch covid and then have to lose another Christmas.

One possibility that comes to mind for me is that next year sees an interest rate rise which is scaremongered by the estate agents/Rightmove (who don't really care what prices are at) bringing a pile of listings to the market, all wanting to achieve peak (or close to peak) price.

With transaction figures being low it actually wouldn't surprise me if the stamp duty holiday made a return.

[CVG]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wonder where this line will go next....

 

Another reason for shorting rightmove.

Yeah, I don't get that. Transaction volumes are on the floor. If they can only go higher then RM can only benefit? It won't matter that/if prices collapse so long as volumes increase.

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wonder where this line will go next....

 

Another reason for shorting rightmove.

Just done my infrequent property search on first 3 digits of postcode and got 123, in the good old days of HPC.co.uk used to get a steady 200. This 123 is despite the area having been flooded with new-builds since then.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wonder where this line will go next....

 

Another reason for shorting rightmove.

Mortgage approvals drop to lowest level since July last year but housing market is 'a long way from the cliff edge'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-10254341/Mortgage-approvals-drop-lowest-level-July-year.html

That chart is fucking nuts.

 

[Hancock]

25 minutes ago, Boon said:

In the near term it has to be down. As far as I can see in my areas the number of listings is still falling. This December might be a stand-out bad year - unlike last year no stamp duty incentive to rush deals. And also good reason to not let strangers in your home, lest you catch covid and then have to lose another Christmas.

One possibility that comes to mind for me is that next year sees an interest rate rise which is scaremongered by the estate agents/Rightmove (who don't really care what prices are at) bringing a pile of listings to the market, all wanting to achieve peak (or close to peak) price.

With transaction figures being low it actually wouldn't surprise me if the stamp duty holiday made a return.

The 3 million houses that would regularly come onto the market are now in the hands of landlords and 2nd homeowners, and these people aren't selling.

The current market with new builds, the odd house of childless couples getting divorced and where granny has died is the new normal.

IMHO of course.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Hancock

[steppensheep]

Seems like a sensible chap over on tos

Quote

•  
• • Posted yesterday at 16:25 (edited)

The market is just horribly distorted currently. Not saying it is too high or too low but it is clearly dysfunctional.

So I am avoiding moving right now, not due to price issues, but simply due to how dysfunctional the market is. There is basically nothing on the market. No choice. And anything good just goes instantly.

Reasons for this is:

1, people not wanting to move/show people round their homes during covid pandemic - particularly older folk who are the most cautious, 

2, Furlough meant nobody lost their jobs so no forced sales. Everyone is also loaded with savings due to furlough and not being able to waste money as everywhere was shut (this is changing now though).

3, People are holding property "just in case" because of the lockdowns. Basically, in case of another lockdown people are avoiding downsizing or selling investment homes just in case they need them. I have seen this personally a few times. This pushes up the market a lot.

4, Nothing to buy so no point listing homes. Kind of a circular situation that is usually not allowed to happen due to forced sales or people wanting to move/downsize. That is not happening currently much, so the circular situation is persisting

5, Low interest rates - nobody has to sell. Owning a mortgage have never been cheaper. 

6, People bought forward their purchasing/selling/moving for the stamp duty holiday.

7, Slower than usual house building due to material and labour shortages. 

8, Uncertainty - nobody knows how this is going to end so better to hold off on a life defining purchase.

9, Reduced movement - people were stuck in furlough for 18 months or so. This meant many people were "stuck" in areas, so they never moved areas which causes houses to be bought and sold. The movement in the jobs market was non-existent (or very low) up to October because of Furlough. So less houses on the market due to that too.

 

Things will change though. Just after the pandemic

 

Quote

I think the day the pandemic is declared "over" globally is essentially when the whole thing ends. In the Uk that would mean no recording and publishing of covid cases. As soon as that happens I think the UK will change and that probably a huge load of houses will gradually flood the market.

 

Wouldn't actually surprise me if a supply explosion hurts house prices quite a lot. People will be keen to move and downsize once they realise covid is over and they are even older than they were in 2019. 

 

Can we send him the bat signall?

 

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/242359-moving-in-a-time-of-pandemic/&do=findComment&comment=1103805109

Edited November 29, 2021 by steppensheep

[Hancock]

16 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

Seems like a sensible chap over on tos

Can we send him the bat signal?

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/242359-moving-in-a-time-of-pandemic/&do=findComment&comment=1103805109

Nah he's pro vax.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, steppensheep said:

Seems like a sensible chap over on tos

His point that the end of the pandemic will likely bring a lot of property to market seems spot on to me. I think an awful lot of things will be similar, eg stock markets. The end of the pandemic means the end of stimulus for a start, and more than that will entail a breif burst of euphoria that cannot be sustained or justified. 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Yeah, I don't get that. Transaction volumes are on the floor. If they can only go higher then RM can only benefit? It won't matter that/if prices collapse so long as volumes increase.

Not if estate agents start going out of business, which will happen if there is nothing to sell.

Likewise, if the are few houses to sell, banks are in trouble.