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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


haroldshand

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HousePriceMania
5 hours ago, Boon said:

Gotta take the increased listings with a bit of a pinch of salt, could be a false start.

 

UK Property lion...Listings up 10% in 2 months from a very very very low base.

Listings defo rising.

There's still fec all to buy

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HousePriceMania
21 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Anecdotal:

Guy in office tried to remortgage as coming to end of term. Was looking all good until this week. Offer withdrawn. Spurious 'reasons'.

HSBC lender.

Property needs revaluing.

2 year fixed was it :ph34r:

 

image.png.4150154e88539a0ca4a23bc47a427f44.png

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A 13-year high for UK base rates as the Bank of England adds 0.25 percent to increase the rate to 1.25 percent. Inflation is now at 9 percent and the last time this happened was in 1982 … the base rate then was around 10 percent. The Bank of England are now saying inflation will reach 11 percent in October. So what does a 0.25 percent rise in base rate say? It says they will not raise rates until they have no choice and by that time it will be far too late.

Why not raise them by more … raising rates now will bring in a recession with falling house prices and unemployment and raising them later will bring in a recession and then a depression with falling house prices and unemployment … but the delay will enable some schemes to be thought up to stop home owners from being evicted ‘Help To Keep’ or the government taking some equity … basically they will use yet more taxpayer cash to prevent house prices falling.

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HousePriceMania
5 hours ago, satch said:

A 13-year high for UK base rates as the Bank of England adds 0.25 percent to increase the rate to 1.25 percent. Inflation is now at 9 percent and the last time this happened was in 1982 … the base rate then was around 10 percent. The Bank of England are now saying inflation will reach 11 percent in October. So what does a 0.25 percent rise in base rate say? It says they will not raise rates until they have no choice and by that time it will be far too late.

 

Why not raise them by more … raising rates now will bring in a recession with falling house prices and unemployment and raising them later will bring in a recession and then a depression with falling house prices and unemployment … but the delay will enable some schemes to be thought up to stop home owners from being evicted ‘Help To Keep’ or the government taking some equity … basically they will use yet more taxpayer cash to prevent house prices falling.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/hsbc-natwest-raise-mortgage-rates-ahead-bank-england-announcement/

 

 

HSBC raising anyway 

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11 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Its possible esp with HSBC that they are so low on staff that theyll look at go - Hmm, rates are going up. Were ot goign to go thru the same process in 1, 2 months time. Lets put up rates for the next few rate rises now.

Its also a sign that HSBC dont feel the need to compete on rates.

i.e. there are few competitors is nortgages.

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HousePriceMania
8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Its possible esp with HSBC that they are so low on staff that theyll look at go - Hmm, rates are going up. Were ot goign to go thru the same process in 1, 2 months time. Lets put up rates for the next few rate rises now.

Its also a sign that HSBC dont feel the need to compete on rates.

i.e. there are few competitors is nortgages.

Could be related to having to get funds from the money markets now, i.e. mortgage rates are going up regardless.

Edited by HousePriceMania
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Chewing Grass
On 16/06/2022 at 09:01, Chewing Grass said:

Just been back in and we are now up to 171, a 5% increase from Monday.

Its Friday, its now 184, another 13 properties and another 7% since yesterday.

If it gets over 200, the good old days are of 15+ years ago are back.

Everyone wants to sell for some strange reason, ding-ding-ding, its like last orders at the bar.

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UnconventionalWisdom
On 12/06/2022 at 06:38, Darude said:

While Tony Blair was Prime Minister the proportion of UK housing in the private rented sector went from 10% to 20%, an enormous transfer of capital which seems to rarely be talked about, especially by politicians.

Yes sure, there will always be a role for private rentals e.g. for people just starting out in life or who need flexibility at other times but I don't believe 20% of households fall into those categories. Most people are settled wageslaves, and if they needed to move they could just sell up and buy another place as my parents did multiple times in their lives. There are many people living in the private rented sector who have no desire or need to be there but the exits are being blocked by buy-to-letters who got there first.

If the Conservatives were serious about homeownership they would be trying to move those extra 10% back into the hands of owner occupiers. Get HMRC to find all the landlords and tax half of them out of the game. It shouldn't be that difficult, we're not talking trying to catch drug smugglers or some other hidden crime, these are massive piles of bricks which cannot be hidden. Just set up a dedicated unit, give it one job to find all the non-declaring landlords, and bloody get on with it.

The proportion of 1 bedroom flats is the key as that's what people want to buy as a first place. Prob gone to 40% of btller as that's all they could borrow. I'm late 30s and so pissed with the situation. 

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Its Friday, its now 184, another 13 properties and another 7% since yesterday.

If it gets over 200, the good old days are of 15+ years ago are back.

Everyone wants to sell for some strange reason, ding-ding-ding, its like last orders at the bar.

It could be SSTC coming back to market,I suspect there's a few bidders walking away till things settle

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I thought I would see what sort of mortgage I could get … earning £50,000 from a job (I am worth it!) with a £10,000 bonus, so OTE (on target earnings of 60k) which is not unreasonable for my fictitious job based on my previous earnings. No debt and I payoff the credit card every month, I have always done this so this is realistic. I want a 25 year mortgage as a first time buyer with a big deposit because I have been saving up, so I plug in the figures and computer says ‘yes’ I can borrow £280,000 with a 60 percent LTV mortgage with the Halifax which is brilliant.

I am also a 66-year-old coffin dodger claiming my state pension (as well as working my fictitious £60k job!) so should pay the mortgage off when I am 91 years old. I would assume that when processing the claim for real the bank would verify the £60k income, which would be fine. They would also I guess look at my age (66 although to be fair I could pass for ten years younger … maybe! if I dyed my almost white hair) and perhaps they will look at my health which is good. But would you seriously give a large (£280,000 is large) 25 year mortgage to someone age 66 when you look at the ‘deaths at age’ charts and can anyone work full time into their 80s? The mortgage was based on my earnings which is sustainable at age 40 but not at age 66.

So the average person with half a brain would be asking why at age 66 you need to borrow £280,000 to buy your first house when you are earning £60k a year and the loan will not be paid off until you are 91 and there is a 95.3 percent chance you will be dead. Jog on is a phrase that springs to mind.

Well you would be wrong. I have a relative who has just done the above and has a mortgage using similar sums and is … wait for it … wait … 70 so he will be 95 when the loan is paid off providing he is still alive which is around a 2 percent chance.

So why would you lend so much money to some old codger? There are probably many reasons but keeping house prices high is one and another is finding a home for all that money from the magic money tree is another. Still with a 60 percent LTV mortgage they believe they will get their money back. The rules used to be that the mortgage had to be paid off before you retired now it seems quite acceptable to get a 25-year mortgage after you retire that in all probability will never be paid off as the mortgagee will be dead … still I suppose it now does what it says on the tin; Death Pledge.

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Wight Flight
11 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

The proportion of 1 bedroom flats is the key as that's what people want to buy as a first place. Prob gone to 40% of btller as that's all they could borrow. I'm late 30s and so pissed with the situation. 

Which is the one thing they shouldn't be buying IMO.

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10 hours ago, satch said:

I thought I would see what sort of mortgage I could get … earning £50,000 from a job (I am worth it!) with a £10,000 bonus, so OTE (on target earnings of 60k) which is not unreasonable for my fictitious job based on my previous earnings. No debt and I payoff the credit card every month, I have always done this so this is realistic. I want a 25 year mortgage as a first time buyer with a big deposit because I have been saving up, so I plug in the figures and computer says ‘yes’ I can borrow £280,000 with a 60 percent LTV mortgage with the Halifax which is brilliant.

 

I am also a 66-year-old coffin dodger claiming my state pension (as well as working my fictitious £60k job!) so should pay the mortgage off when I am 91 years old. I would assume that when processing the claim for real the bank would verify the £60k income, which would be fine. They would also I guess look at my age (66 although to be fair I could pass for ten years younger … maybe! if I dyed my almost white hair) and perhaps they will look at my health which is good. But would you seriously give a large (£280,000 is large) 25 year mortgage to someone age 66 when you look at the ‘deaths at age’ charts and can anyone work full time into their 80s? The mortgage was based on my earnings which is sustainable at age 40 but not at age 66.

 

So the average person with half a brain would be asking why at age 66 you need to borrow £280,000 to buy your first house when you are earning £60k a year and the loan will not be paid off until you are 91 and there is a 95.3 percent chance you will be dead. Jog on is a phrase that springs to mind.

 

Well you would be wrong. I have a relative who has just done the above and has a mortgage using similar sums and is … wait for it … wait … 70 so he will be 95 when the loan is paid off providing he is still alive which is around a 2 percent chance.

 

So why would you lend so much money to some old codger? There are probably many reasons but keeping house prices high is one and another is finding a home for all that money from the magic money tree is another. Still with a 60 percent LTV mortgage they believe they will get their money back. The rules used to be that the mortgage had to be paid off before you retired now it seems quite acceptable to get a 25-year mortgage after you retire that in all probability will never be paid off as the mortgagee will be dead … still I suppose it now does what it says on the tin; Death Pledge.

 

Id guess your relative would have have to have took out a v expensive  life insurance.

With the right broker, the dafter finance co (note, not bank) then many stupid financial things are still possible.

However ...

They are usually expensive.

The fin-co always win.

You only have to look at the variations of Er - RIO mortgages, whatever etc etc.

The product will eat all the assets.

It will suit suit a small number of people.

 

 

 

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Loads of doom articles on the telegraph at the minute about BTL. Definite change in the mood, we'll see if it makes any difference. I really need to buy a place ( I am in the north at least so not as far to fall) but does feel like we're on the edge of something now.

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13 hours ago, satch said:

 average person with half a brain would be asking why at age 66 you need to borrow £280,000 to buy your first house when you are earning £60k a year and the loan will not be paid off until you are 91 and there is a 95.3 percent chance you will be dead. Jog on is a phrase that springs to mind.

Well you would be wrong. I have a relative who has just done the above and has a mortgage using similar sums and is … wait for it … wait … 70 so he will be 95 when the loan is paid off providing he is still alive which is around a 2 percent chance.

I'm 44 now but a year ago I approached a financial advisor with a view to getting a mortgage. The longest term that he could find for me was 23 years. So I would have to be 66 by the time the mortgage was paid off. No consideration for any private pensions or other income streams there might be outside of work income. 

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With a crooked smile
23 hours ago, UmBongo said:

I'm 44 now but a year ago I approached a financial advisor with a view to getting a mortgage. The longest term that he could find for me was 23 years. So I would have to be 66 by the time the mortgage was paid off. No consideration for any private pensions or other income streams there might be outside of work income. 

Agree with you about the age thing on residential mortgages. I had exactly the same thing. BTL they don't care you can keep remortgaging with mainstream lenders until 85/90 depending on who it is.

I found they said they wouldn't accept RSUs (free stock that's part of my compensation) as part of my income. In the US its much more common for mortgage companies to include these. But I then went with Natwest who just averaged my P60 for 3 years . So in effect as I pay tax on RSUs as they are given to me and they are income according to P60 the mortgage company did lend against them.

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With a crooked smile
On 16/06/2022 at 16:07, HousePriceMania said:

2 year fixed was it :ph34r:

 

image.png.4150154e88539a0ca4a23bc47a427f44.png

Should have looked at 10 year fixes. 

I looked this morning. 10 years 2.82%, money still cheap as chips to borrow. 

 

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Yadda yadda yadda
1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

Should have looked at 10 year fixes. 

I looked this morning. 10 years 2.82%, money still cheap as chips to borrow. 

 

I was surprised at that rate. According to MSE there are slightly lower 10 year rates available. This is based on a £120k mortgage with a lot of equity. Barclays was next with 2.82%.

The full list didn't have many providers at 10 years plus though. Kensington are offering a range of lifetime fixed rate mortgages with various rates depending on the size of up front fee. Look a bargain at rates not much higher than 3%.

Screenshot_20220620-074649.png

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sancho panza
3 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Should have looked at 10 year fixes. 

I looked this morning. 10 years 2.82%, money still cheap as chips to borrow. 

 

That's crazy.Sadly,as it's the property market it's going to be months before we see todays actionable data.

I think the big bank economsits are seeing inflation turn down once the post covid supply side issues recede.

Obviously I think they're wrong and if I had a mortgage (Decl: I don't) then I'd back up the truck here on a ten year view.dyor natch

@Barnsey scored a 15 yr last year at super low rates iirc......not sure there's many of those around

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I was surprised at that rate. According to MSE there are slightly lower 10 year rates available. This is based on a £120k mortgage with a lot of equity. Barclays was next with 2.82%.

The full list didn't have many providers at 10 years plus though. Kensington are offering a range of lifetime fixed rate mortgages with various rates depending on the size of up front fee. Look a bargain at rates not much higher than 3%.

Screenshot_20220620-074649.png

I think if you've got equity 50% plus then the banks happy,at the end of the day they're jsut adding a margin to externally soruced money on these fixes.Risk to them is pretty low of it backfiring.

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Democorruptcy
On 11/06/2022 at 10:33, Wight Flight said:

Why would the treasury want more home owners?

If an OO buys a house, they don't even always get the stamp duty.I

If a landlord guys a house, they get loads of stamp duty and 20% of the rental income. They also get capital gains on sale.

What am I missing here?

 

If you were in the Treasury looking at the increasing housing benefit bill, you might want to try reduce it. Shifting people from shirkers to workers, buying a property with a joint income mortgage, not only reduces benefits it increases income tax revenue. Pay the pleb's £1,000's a year or have them pay you it?

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2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you were in the Treasury looking at the increasing housing benefit bill, you might want to try reduce it. Shifting people from shirkers to workers, buying a property with a joint income mortgage, not only reduces benefits it increases income tax revenue. Pay the pleb's £1,000's a year or have them pay you it?

Giving guys on bennies mortgages is going to increase welfare expenditure, not reduce it.

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