Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Your government hates you :

 

 

To the infinity and beyond. Till its not.

[HousePriceMania]

I think the BoE and the government might just be an organised crime gang.

Not sure there is any other plausible explanation to this decision.

[Boon]

Question is will there be something to replace it?

Housebuilder shares all well down today when you think that could have been a boost for them.

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

I think the BoE and the government might just be an organised crime gang.

Not sure there is any other plausible explanation to this decision.

Their reasoning is that the loan-to-income flow limit is more effective at limiting risky borrowing.

We shall see.

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Their reasoning is that the loan-to-income flow limit is more effective at limiting risky borrowing.

We shall see.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I think if you've got equity 50% plus then the banks happy,at the end of the day they're jsut adding a margin to externally soruced money on these fixes.Risk to them is pretty low of it backfiring.

The cost of a mortgage should be the cost of the money to the bank, plus administration, plus risk/insurance plus profit. What is surprising at the moment is how flat the fixed rate mortgage curve is. I guess it shouldn't be when you look at market interest rates but it still feels odd. Little difference between a two year and a five year fix. Not much on top of that for a ten year. Just not a lot of supply of very long fix rates. The lifetime fix from Kensington is exceptional. Only 0.5% or so more than a two year fix.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Their reasoning is that the loan-to-income flow limit is more effective at limiting risky borrowing.

We shall see.

 

3% affordability check removed as 95% LTV mortgages go above 3%

Are the bankers trolling the poor now ?

[Noallegiance]

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

3% affordability check removed as 95% LTV mortgages go above 3%

Are the bankers trolling the poor now ?

Apparently, we're still not at the point where markets hurt the most people possible! And again apparently, government is wiling to nudge even more sheep into the slaughter pen!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you were in the Treasury looking at the increasing housing benefit bill, you might want to try reduce it. Shifting people from shirkers to workers, buying a property with a joint income mortgage, not only reduces benefits it increases income tax revenue. Pay the pleb's £1,000's a year or have them pay you it?

Almost half of housing benefit recipients are pensioners these days, not much prospect of turning them into workers.

In terms of the rising housing benefit bill, this isn't happening due to increasing numbers of claimants, it's just that housing in the UK is already expensive and becoming more so. If the government wants to get the HB bill down maybe it should consider getting housing costs down in general so that when it needs to procure housing for various old/poor people it costs less to buy it in.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021

 

[Noallegiance]

57 minutes ago, Darude said:

Almost half of housing benefit recipients are pensioners these days, not much prospect of turning them into workers.

In terms of the rising housing benefit bill, this isn't happening due to increasing numbers of claimants, it's just that housing in the UK is already expensive and becoming more so. If the government wants to get the HB bill down maybe it should consider getting housing costs down in general so that when it needs to procure housing for various old/poor people it costs less to buy it in.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021

 

Probably more a 40/60 split but that is a decent bit of new information to my world.

Wow.

[Bilbo]

1 hour ago, Darude said:

Almost half of housing benefit recipients are pensioners these days, not much prospect of turning them into workers.

In terms of the rising housing benefit bill, this isn't happening due to increasing numbers of claimants, it's just that housing in the UK is already expensive and becoming more so. If the government wants to get the HB bill down maybe it should consider getting housing costs down in general so that when it needs to procure housing for various old/poor people it costs less to buy it in.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021

 

Yes but us boomers have everything don't you know!

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Bilbo said:

Yes but us boomers have everything don't you know!

Apart from:

Youth

Health

Fitness

Hair

Teeth

The prospect of dying in WW3

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Apparently, we're still not at the point where markets hurt the most people possible! And again apparently, government is wiling to nudge even more sheep into the slaughter pen!

No more boom and bust.....couldn't make it up

 

 

[sarahbell]

2 hours ago, Darude said:

Almost half of housing benefit recipients are pensioners these days, not much prospect of turning them into workers.

In terms of the rising housing benefit bill, this isn't happening due to increasing numbers of claimants, it's just that housing in the UK is already expensive and becoming more so. If the government wants to get the HB bill down maybe it should consider getting housing costs down in general so that when it needs to procure housing for various old/poor people it costs less to buy it in.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021

 

That is really interesting. How is the OAP line so level? Do an OAP die every time a new OAP is made?

So we could build social housing just aimed at the old.

 

[Democorruptcy]

6 hours ago, marceau said:

Giving guys on bennies mortgages is going to increase welfare expenditure, not reduce it.

They are trying to filter out the 'aspiratonal' ones, get them on the imaginary ladder and into work. When their children age their bennies will drop and the scurvy dogs will have to go to work to keep their payments up.

Later on they will have an asset, that I think will ultimately be taken into account for bennies. Via Help to Buy the governbankment already owns equity in a lot of people's property, no reason why they can't do something similar to cover bennies.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Darude said:

Almost half of housing benefit recipients are pensioners these days, not much prospect of turning them into workers.

In terms of the rising housing benefit bill, this isn't happening due to increasing numbers of claimants, it's just that housing in the UK is already expensive and becoming more so. If the government wants to get the HB bill down maybe it should consider getting housing costs down in general so that when it needs to procure housing for various old/poor people it costs less to buy it in.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2021

 

It's because half the housing benefit claimants are pensioners, that they want to try get the bennies folk into work before they get that old.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's because half the housing benefit claimants are pensioners, that they want to try get the bennies folk into work before they get that old.

If the government really does want to make sure future generations of pensioners are less dependent on the government because they have enough private capital to live on then they are going about it in exactly the wrong way.

High asset prices relative to wages and heavy taxation of wage income have seriously harmed working age people's ability to accumulate capital during their working lives.

Every BTLer who is using a renter family to pay off the mortgage on their BTL property is creating a family that will reach retirement without owning a house themselves. The government is incentivising this process by giving mortgage interest relief to BTLers and by generally not seriously chasing after landlords who don't declare rental income.

If there are 1m pensioner households in receipt of housing benefit now that could so easily be 4m or 5m once the generations stuck in private rentals and accumulating £50-100k defined contribution pension pots are too old to be employable. If that scenario comes to pass the government is going to have to build the solution itself i.e. millions of new state-owned flats for low income pensioners.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Guest

[UmBongo]

Does this mean I could take out a £140k mortgage? Even though the banks will lend me up to £95k previously. 

[Democorruptcy]

44 minutes ago, Darude said:

If the government really does want to make sure future generations of pensioners are less dependent on the government because they have enough private capital to live on then they are going about it in exactly the wrong way.

High asset prices relative to wages and heavy taxation of wage income have seriously harmed working age people's ability to accumulate capital during their working lives.

Every BTLer who is using a renter family to pay off the mortgage on their BTL property is creating a family that will reach retirement without owning a house themselves. The government is incentivising this process by giving mortgage interest relief to BTLers and by generally not seriously chasing after landlords who don't declare rental income.

If there are 1m pensioner households in receipt of housing benefit now that could so easily be 4m or 5m once the generations stuck in private rentals and accumulating £50-100k defined contribution pension pots are too old to be employable. If that scenario comes to pass the government is going to have to build the solution itself i.e. millions of new state-owned flats for low income pensioners.

They don't want people to accumulate spare capital, they just want them in housing debt so they have to work longer and pay more tax. Then because they have no spare capital, they want them to do equity release (more debt), to fund their own later life instead of bennies. Then the next generation inherit nothing because their parent's house is spent, so they have their own life of debt.

1m pensioners on housing benefit now is a legacy of having social housing to rent for life. They don't want people to have cheaper social housing, bennies for bricks reduces the stock.

[marceau]

11 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

They don't want people to accumulate spare capital, they just want them in housing debt so they have to work longer and pay more tax. Then because they have no spare capital, they want them to do equity release (more debt), to fund their own later life instead of bennies. Then the next generation inherit nothing because their parent's house is spent, so they have their own life of debt.

1m pensioners on housing benefit now is a legacy of having social housing to rent for life. They don't want people to have cheaper social housing, bennies for bricks reduces the stock.

What they want and what they are going to get are two different things. If this is the master plan then it's Gordon Brown level stupidity, totally at odds with the reality of the economic system we are in. It's circular logic, won't work and will reduce govt revenue on every time frame.

The UK has it's hands wrapped firmly around it's own throat. The answer is to let go, not squeeze harder.

Edited June 21, 2022 by marceau

[spygirl]

22 hours ago, marceau said:

Giving guys on bennies mortgages is going to increase welfare expenditure, not reduce it.

Men. On benefits?

Bless.

 

[HousePriceMania]

On 16/06/2022 at 15:51, Chewing Grass said:

@JohnnyB now 175, another 4 properties in 6 hours.

What's going up, their house price or their mortgage repayment ?

[Chewing Grass]

54 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's going up, their house price or their mortgage repayment ?

Neither, it's the number of properties listed for sale under the first 3 digits of my post code. Low is 130 but it used to be 200.

[Inque]

If you have a mortgage in principle is that based on a rate fixed for a period of time?

Are we seeing a rush to get a house now before that offer ends and a higher rate is applied?

 

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, Inque said:

If you have a mortgage in principle is that based on a rate fixed for a period of time?

Are we seeing a rush to get a house now before that offer ends and a higher rate is applied?

 

From what I've read they're pulling them regardless