Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Axeman123]

22 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

When I look at places for sale these days, they seem to be expensive even if requiring extensive renovations. This is where the market will fall the most this time.

Lots of anecdotals over the last few years of basket-case fixer-upper properties going for nearly the same as near move-in ready comparables. @Chewing Grass's example upthread is the classic over-funded amateur's over-development with no pool of buyers. A rising market has bailed many such projects out with nominal profits.

I also don't expect a lot of repos for at least a few years, but probate/unfinished-project/ex-BTL properties will likely be a flood. In a falling market no-one will be flipping, and most ordinary buyers won't take on a project for their own home.

[JoeDavola]

30 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

When I look at places for sale these days, they seem to be expensive even if requiring extensive renovations. This is where the market will fall the most this time.

Yes I'm nervous about prices dropping a bit, but see buying something that already has had a load of work done to it that would be exactly the kind of renovation work I'd want done as something of an 'inflation hedge' as I can't see such work getting cheaper.

It's the same story over here with fixer uppers they usually aren't priced low enough to allow for the cost of fixing up.

[Xtal]

22 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

A quote from mumsnet

 

I wonder if that’s my landlady

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

I think ToS got many people to think a crash would happen over night and you could be quids in anticipating that. Unfortunately it's more complicated I doubt prices would collapse over night. If a property loses value for a period of 12 months you need somewhere to live during that period so rental loss also needs to be taken into consideration. 

I'm becoming more attuned to the idea/possiblity of a slow kahuna in a few asset classes where the damge is done in real terms

5 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Cost of living crisis is a real thing and is playing out now with Post coming October IMO having the potential to showing some real dark and miserable times, but I have no idea how the housing market is going to react and I am not 100% certain it's going to be a season of major falls in prices.

Shall we just say people are funny and often have weird odd priorities with housing being one of them, one of my Sisters for example would rather lose a limb than be seen  living with the "dregs of society"

I think we trader types sometimes forget that for msot people their hosue is their only/priamry asset and the last bill they cut back on is the mrotgage.

Obviosuly the problem with real estate as a savings strategy is that you can't tap the dividends if you get hard up.

Agree hard times are coming but UK resi property may be the alat asset class to go.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

I'm becoming more attuned to the idea/possiblity of a slow kahuna in a few asset classes where the damge is done in real terms

I think we trader types sometimes forget that for msot people their hosue is their only/priamry asset and the last bill they cut back on is the mrotgage.

Obviosuly the problem with real estate as a savings strategy is that you can't tap the dividends if you get hard up.

Agree hard times are coming but UK resi property may be the alat asset class to go.

I have been sort of pondering the question today of where all the money goes and what happens when it starts to disappear from the plebs.

• Inflation above wages
• Negative Returns on Private Pensions
• High Energy Costs
• High Food Prices
• Falling Sales of Non-Essentials
• Job Losses
• Reduced flows of Investment Money from Pension Co's
• Higher Taxation
• Service Sector Businesses Profits Evaporate and Sector Contracts
• More Job Losses
• Car Sales fail to Recover
• Finance Sector (Cars/Consumer Goods) Fails
• Stock Prices Fall
• Housing Sector (New Build) Collapses
• Construction Sector Contracts - Job Losses
• Negative Equity
• Private Landlords Bail / Fail
• Local Authorities become Bankrupt
• Care Sector Collapses
• Utility Companies Nationalised
• Rail Companies Fail

Bored now.

 

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The thing is, someone doesn't need to buy an index of house prices but just one. Individual properties could plummet while indexes hold up on low transactions.

Anyone inheriting an elderly relatives neglected house while struggling to keep up the faux-rich lifestyle many people have taken for granted since QE etc is going to be very eager to sell. 

There are a lot of people leading what might be termed marginal exitences in terms of spare disposable income.WHat really matters is how many become forced sellers.Govt can do a lot to stop that happening.

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Lots of anecdotals over the last few years of basket-case fixer-upper properties going for nearly the same as near move-in ready comparables. @Chewing Grass's example upthread is the classic over-funded amateur's over-development with no pool of buyers. A rising market has bailed many such projects out with nominal profits.

I also don't expect a lot of repos for at least a few years, but probate/unfinished-project/ex-BTL properties will likely be a flood. In a falling market no-one will be flipping, and most ordinary buyers won't take on a project for their own home.

It's liquidity that's the issue if you need/are forced to sell.The mroe marginal properties will get hit the worst.

Our current rental will get sold in a  couple of years when our tenancy ends I susect..We're currently renting a 3/4 bed detched on a 2.5-3% gross yield.The roof has a 5 or possibly 6 figure bill looming in the next few years,a decent survey will pick up a raft of otehr problems.Big heating bills/big council tax bill.Big fuel bills to get into Liecester/Harborough.Even if they gave me this place for half what they paid in mid 21 at the top, I;d have to think twice given the upkeep issues I'd suddenly become liable for.

Previous one was a 3 bed semi,nicely done up,edge of Leicester.Will sell very quickly for good moeny even ina recession

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes I'm nervous about prices dropping a bit, but see buying something that already has had a load of work done to it that would be exactly the kind of renovation work I'd want done as something of an 'inflation hedge' as I can't see such work getting cheaper.

It's the same story over here with fixer uppers they usually aren't priced low enough to allow for the cost of fixing up.

I think that's a great strategy right there Joe.The LL's plumber was round yesterday fixing a problem,saying cost of copper piping twice what it was a year back.

Edited June 28, 2022 by sancho panza

[haroldshand]

3 hours ago, Xtal said:

I wonder if that’s my landlady

Odds are that that was nearly certainly  posted by a ToS member

[sancho panza]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I have been sort of pondering the question today of where all the money goes and what happens when it starts to disappear from the plebs.

• Inflation above wages
• Negative Returns on Private Pensions
• High Energy Costs
• High Food Prices
• Falling Sales of Non-Essentials
• Job Losses
• Reduced flows of Investment Money from Pension Co's
• Higher Taxation
• Service Sector Businesses Profits Evaporate and Sector Contracts
• More Job Losses
• Car Sales fail to Recover
• Finance Sector (Cars/Consumer Goods) Fails
• Stock Prices Fall
• Housing Sector (New Build) Collapses
• Construction Sector Contracts - Job Losses
• Negative Equity
• Private Landlords Bail / Fail
• Local Authorities become Bankrupt
• Care Sector Collapses
• Utility Companies Nationalised
• Rail Companies Fail

Bored now.

 

When you have a predominantly service sector economy,the job losses feed on themselves once they get going.Also,it's worth considering the size of the gvot payroll as fiscal stimulus is the stuff of neo clasical playbooks.There' sjut won't be the moeny.

They may keep the plates spinnign but I doubt it.I'm hedging this sort of outcome and am happy with where we are.

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

It's liquidity that's the issue if you need/are forced to sell.The mroe marginal properties will get hit the worst.

Our current rental will get sold in a  couple of years when our tenancy ends I susect..We're currently renting a 3/4 bed detched on a 2.5-3% gross yield.The roof has a 5 or possibly 6 figure bill looming in the next few years,a decent survey will pick up a raft of otehr problems.Big heating bills/big council tax bill.Big fuel bills to get into Liecester/Harborough.Even if they gave me this place I;d have to think twice given the upkeep issues I'd suddenly become liable for.

Previous one was a 3 bed semi,nicely done up,edge of Leicester.Will sell very quickly for good moeny even ina recession

I think that's a great strategy right there Joe.The LL's plumber was round yesterday fixing a problem,saying cost of copper piping twice what it was a year back.

Yes I agree that big old houses may come to be seen as a liability. Better to buy something more modest with more potential buyers if you want to sell.

[haroldshand]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'm becoming more attuned to the idea/possiblity of a slow kahuna in a few asset classes where the damge is done in real terms

I think we trader types sometimes forget that for msot people their hosue is their only/priamry asset and the last bill they cut back on is the mrotgage.

Obviosuly the problem with real estate as a savings strategy is that you can't tap the dividends if you get hard up.

Agree hard times are coming but UK resi property may be the alat asset class to go.

I would give slighter better odds on there being slight falls heading our way in the housing market, but it really depends what time of day you ask me as that view  can swing the other way.

I most certainly can see a scenario where property holds up no matter how bad inflation and the cost of living crisis gets

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I would give slighter better odds on there being slight falls heading our way in the housing market, but it really depends what time of day you ask me as that view  can swing the other way.

I most certainly can see a scenario where property holds up no matter how bad inflation and the cost of living crisis gets

Government will sanction the right to switch to interest only mortgages and inflation will do the rest.

[onlyme]

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes I'm nervous about prices dropping a bit, but see buying something that already has had a load of work done to it that would be exactly the kind of renovation work I'd want done as something of an 'inflation hedge' as I can't see such work getting cheaper.

It's the same story over here with fixer uppers they usually aren't priced low enough to allow for the cost of fixing up.

Also at the moment trades are still busy, difficult to get and you'll not get the pick of the best when they are struggling for materials are pricey (not that they cannot go higher) and availability issues is causing build disruption. Very easy to come a cropper from factors across the board.

Only a sample of two, but personal experience is stuff is not shifting that probably should, on the market the last two months, though one did have a low offer but not enough to finance the move.

Edit - Also rents possibly falling in some sectors in London sample of one looking.

Edited June 28, 2022 by onlyme

[haroldshand]

18 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Government will sanction the right to switch to interest only mortgages and inflation will do the rest.

Like it has already been mentioned on here by another poster, price falls are not all that predictable and straight forward like some would have you believe, it was never going to be as easy as  ToS made it out to be  two decades ago, silly people borrow too much, hard times hit, silly people have to sell their no expensive homes, clever people buy them cheap

Dream on

[HousePriceMania]

50 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Government will sanction the right to switch to interest only mortgages and inflation will do the rest.

Wont that destroy the banks? 

[Axeman123]

9 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wont that destroy the banks? 

Assuming the bank could charge interest at a spread over the cost of funding, then that could actually be better for them. Same monthly payment but the loan balance never goes down, and profit is a percentage of the whole payment rather than just on a sliver of it as interest. Perpetual debt has always been their end game IMO.

[spygirl]

On 25/03/2021 at 07:53, spygirl said:

Its that time of years when regional paper put out there properdee BS.

Its never that good at the best of time.

Now, the stuff is totally made up.

Where do people move to Scarborough from? The top 10 places in the UK people leave for a new life on the coast are revealed

People from Scarborough know it is a great place to live – and it turns out that thousands of other Brits agree !

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/lifestyle/homes-and-gardens/where-do-people-move-to-scarborough-from-the-top-10-places-in-the-uk-people-leave-for-a-new-life-on-the-coast-are-revealed-3174060

In fact, in the 12 months to June 2019, 4,823 people moved to Scarborough from elsewhere in the UK. That’s according to internal migration data from the Office for National Statistics, which also reveals the areas of the country where the most people are drawn to Scarborough from. So where is the pull to our wonderful coast area the greatest?

Scabbys population is ~110k. Thats 3% of the population moving in.

3. Leeds

The third most common place people arrived in the area from was Leeds, with 300 arrivals in the year to June 2019.

Leeds pop is 800k - almost 8x than Scabby. And has jobs and stuff.

Yet somehow we are meant to believe that Scabby has had ~13x people move to it than Leeds?

 

 

 

On 13/12/2020 at 15:18, spygirl said:

I found this the other week and have already posted a few times.

It almost answers my question- How many mortgages have been sold in Scabby . Or other towns?

https://www.fca.org.uk/data/product-sales-data/mortgage-product-sales-data-geographic-area

50k mortgages sold in Yorkshire n Humber in 2019

That's just 5k/month.

For an area with 5.5m people inc v large cities like Leeds, York, Ull, Bradford.

 

 

 

Longish post, of the all threads merge to one type.

An example of picking your way thru multiple data, surveys and whatnot to try and gauge the true picture.

Maybe only of direct interest to @One percentbut, as Ive said on here and TOS, Scarborough is the future. Lessons to be learned, trend to be extended etc etc.

This regards Scarborough borough rather than town.

The borough is the one that registers  in the census/ukgov figures. Steers -> Filey.

Census 2021 update!

Census: Population of England and Wales grew 6% in a decade

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61966084

 

Scarbs borough is one of the few falling places.

FT pop down 5%-10%.

This is mainly the holiday let writ large, and mainly around Whitby.

There just rent that many FHL in Scabby. Im sure theyve gone up in the last 10 years, but theyve risen from a base.

FHL in Whitby are now at curse level.

Next one - 

Older population in England and Wales hits record high

https://www.ft.com/content/c8334a2a-cef9-4ed8-9470-5a4dbcfcd351

https://www.ft.com/content/c8334a2a-cef9-4ed8-9470-5a4dbcfcd351

 

 

Hopefully this shows - its not a normal jpeg. Magic interactive chart.

The darker areas are where OAPs are 30%.

Scarbs is now 27.5%.

Again,. one of the handful of places where there is an extraordinary high number of OAPs.

Now UK town have between 20%-50% unemployment i.e. people dependent on one for of public money - TC,. UC, DLA etc etc for the majotiry (40%+) of their income,.

Scarbs is around 50%. This is more guesswork/deducing. But its roughly accurate.

Another FT -

Young men are slipping quietly through the economy’s cracks

A positive employment trend for young women masks a rise in the proportion of inactive young men

https://www.ft.com/content/388440d8-2dc7-4e3f-8107-b4b55edb8c6c

Its not employment for wimmin. Its comedy PT job to get the TC/UC cash and bennies. Thats all.

Faced with being taxed to pay for Fat Shazza and being outcompeted by Fat Shazza n Shazah on housing, off the boat, Dazza, Wazza, Dena is not even trying, falling out of the formal workforce.

Both Whitby n Scabby have had a large number (10%+ increase in housing stock) built inthe last 10 years.

The majority of it is going to Fat Shazza - 20% reserved for social rents/LHA, another 30% bought by BTL who benefit farm.

All this extra housing is getting scummy single mums  from boro, Leeds, Ull pouring into them.

'Dazza is very violent to me n the 6 kids. I want rehousing ...'

Basically every other shops has 'Apply within' in them.

Yet noone is available for work. 50% non working.

Labour labour everywhere but not a drop to work ...

Which brings me back to - Who the fuck is going to buy your house question?

30% of the population are OAPs. They are staying put, rarely moving.

50% of the working age (~50-60% of the population) are not working.

~15%-20% are students.

The number of mortgages i.e. the thing that drives the housing market must be fucking tiny.

The nubmer of IO BTL sales/housing sales are ramping up as th IO BTL look to quit. They are too late. Theer is no market and theyve played a mjor part in destroying the local OO market.

There still the idiots pouring into FHL

Time for action on Whitby second homes and Airbnb issue - Andrew Vine

IT’S an eerie feeling to walk through a village that feels utterly deserted, like stepping onto an empty film set before cast and crew arrive to bring it to life.

By Andrew Vine

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/time-for-action-on-whitby-second-homes-and-airbnb-issue-andrew-vine-3747030

That’s exactly the sensation I had a few weeks ago whilst walking the Yorkshire clifftop path between Saltburn and Whitby, on a weekday before the tourism season got into full swing.

Read More

Yorkshire's coastal towns must not be spoiled by second homes - The Yorkshire Po...

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Passing through Staithes and Runswick Bay, there was hardly a soul to be seen.

The people of Whitby recently voted overwhelmingly in favour of restricting holiday lets and second homes to preserve their community.

Nobody out and about and no sign of life in the houses, many with their curtains closed on a bright afternoon.

This is not because the adults were all out at work and the children at school.

It’s because the populations of these villages have shrunk to a fraction of what they once were as second-home ownership has hollowed them out until they are all but empty of people outside weekends and the school holidays.

It is sad and depressing to see them like this, but they are far from the only examples on our coastline. A little farther south, in Whitby and Robin Hood’s Bay, there are streets which stand silent and empty for long stretches of the year.

Inexorably, the character of these places is being worn away by the march of second homes. People born there are squeezed out by visitors with deeper pockets who have little stake in the community and only the most transient connections to their history and heritage.

The people of Whitby recognised this when they voted so overwhelmingly to ban further second-home ownership. Though the poll has no legal force, it was an immensely valuable exercise in local democracy in which the town expressed its unease and spoke both eloquently and admirably of the importance of true community spirit.

Our coast is not alone in having that spirit undermined by those who see communities not as places to belong, but only as boltholes from busy working weeks in Leeds or Sheffield.

In the North Yorkshire Moors and the Dales, market towns are being drained of young families who should be the lifeblood of their futures because they cannot afford properties that are being snapped up at inflated prices as second homes.

And in York, MP Rachael Maskell is pressing for the licensing of Airbnb properties because so many have become noisy party venues spoiling the lives of nearby residents.

Thankfully, in Yorkshire we haven’t yet reached the crisis point of Cornwall where there are NHS staff living in caravans because so few properties remain available to rent or buy due to Airbnb lets, but it is surely only a matter of time before something similar starts happening.

The people of Whitby and all the other places so uneasy about the hollowing-out of their communities deserve to get their wish, for the sake of all the people trying to get a foot on the property ladder in places they love and belong, and also for the sake of the future.

Schools, community centres and shops face closure if permanent populations are gradually excluded and villages with once-distinctive identities and traditions are effectively reduced to nothing more than holiday camps.

Turning the tide against this less-than-benign invasion won’t be easy, but Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove’s attempts to make a start ought to be applauded by anybody worried about what is happening to so many places in Yorkshire and beyond.

His proposals to give elected mayors powers to ban owners of second homes from letting them on sites such as Airbnb are overdue. They are driving legitimate bed and breakfasts and hotels, which pay business rates and are part of their local communities, out of business.

Given the strength of feeling about this on the coast, the proposed new mayor for York and North Yorkshire would be likely to find this at the top of their agenda.

But Mr Gove should go farther. Local authorities will soon have the power to double council tax on unoccupied properties, but in Wales, the devolved administration plans to quadruple it, a move worth adopting nationwide if the country is serious about safeguarding communities and giving young people a chance of having a place of their own.

Changes to the planning laws are also needed, to make it far less attractive for Airbnb owners to turn a fast – and largely tax-free – few quid out of letting their second homes.

They are getting away with running businesses that are not subject to any regulation. Instead, they should be required to gain planning permission for a change of use, which would also make it easier for tax authorities to track down earnings from them.

This is about saving some of the most attractive places in Yorkshire from becoming ghost towns and villages, giving them a chance to remain what they should be – strong communities with a sense of identity, where people can build lives and bring up families.

 

Yorkshire communities being turned into nightmares due to Air BnB party houses, says MP

A Yorkshire MP has introduced a bill to licence short-term and holiday-let accommodation in a bid to stop visitors to the city turning “wonderful little communities in York into nightmares.”

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/yorkshire-communities-being-turned-into-nightmares-due-to-air-bnb-party-houses-says-mp-3745447

York Central MP Rachael Maskell said she is being contacted by constituents who no longer feel safe in their homes due to an increasing number of Airbnbs, with many becoming “party houses” hired by stag and hen groups.

Ms Maskelll said there were around 2,000 Airbnbs in her constituency and that they were becoming increasingly common in the outskirts of the city and in the more rural villages.

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Speaking in a debate in parliament about short-term letting, the MP said: “In the city centre, we often find streets—family streets—where there are five or six Airbnbs, and it is having a serious impact.”

Rachel Maskell

Ms Maskell said one property in a cul-de-sac in The Groves area was being advertised for 30 people

“It is at the end of a family residential street, and people in my community have told me that the noise goes on all night,” she said.

“People are half-clad in the streets. Women do not feel safe down some of the back alleys in the Groves, where a lot of children play.

Read More

Man died 'after contracting salmonella from duck eggs bought at a country show'

“People do not feel safe in their own home anymore. I heard from one family who put their house on the market and moved out of the city, which was the only way they could escape the party houses that were increasingly in their area.”

Ms Maskell said developers were turning domestic homes into short-term lets and that the issue was distorting the local housing market.

She added: “Every single time a property comes on to the housing market, in come these owners of Airbnb, cash in hand, hoovering up the properties ahead of people who have saved meticulously for their mortgage. And they are offering over the market price for those properties.”

A private members’ bill introduced by Ms Maskell this week would see a licence required to turn domestic properties into short-term and holiday-let accommodation, give local authorities the power to issue fines and to remove licences, and seek to introduce bans on such properties in certain areas.

Ms Maskell pointed to European cities such as Nice and Lisbon which have had success in introducing licensing schemes. Scotland is also seeking to introduce similar measures.

City of York Council’s executive member for housing, Coun Denise Craghill, has instructed council officers to look at the scale of the issue and explore options for tackling problems in the city.

She added: “I met recently with Rachael Maskell and residents from the Groves who have been suffering from the impacts of large scale holiday lets in the streets including excessive noise and disturbance.

“These cases and a number of others are currently being actively pursued by planning enforcement as material change of use.

“Unfortunately, as current change of use legislation stands, each case has to be pursued on its own individual merits – so any further powers at the national level whether through planning or a licensing scheme would be very welcome. In the meantime, I will continue to look into measures we can take locally.”

Ms Maskell added that the plans for a simple registration scheme being considered by the government did not go far enough.

“The world has changed rapidly,” she said. “I just say to them that we need to move on from that now and look at a full licensing scheme. A registration scheme would simply have serious deficiencies.”

The next stage for the bill, its second reading, is scheduled to take place in December.

 

You can bet money of FHL n AirBNB requriing planning and the removal of SBRR for FHLs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spygirl]

Short-term lets face stricter rules as review gauges impact on tourist hotspots

Concern over proliferation of Airbnb-style rentals in popular holiday destinations spurs action

https://www.ft.com/content/d94695dc-f826-403b-a154-b8fe7b77856e

Curbs on Airbnb-style rental properties in England are being proposed by the UK government as part of a review aimed at reducing the negative impact of short-term holiday lets on residents and the housing market in tourist hotspots Spot checks on rental properties to see if they are obeying noise and antisocial behaviour rules together with healthy and safety regulations are proposed under the review, launched on Wednesday. A self-certification scheme with which hosts must register before they operate has also been floated to help local authorities track down and fine rule breakers. The review, which will last for three months, comes after landlords and homeowners in popular holiday destinations raised concerns over how the proliferation of Airbnb rentals is having a negative effect on communities. Between April 2016 and January 2020 active Airbnb listings across the UK jumped from 76,000 to 257,000, before the company took a hit from Covid-19 curbs.

[spygirl]

Like Im writing the articles - 

Number of holiday-let homes in England up 40% in three years

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61966359

The number of holiday lets in England has risen by 40% in three years, BBC analysis of council figures suggests.

Tourist areas which already had large numbers of such properties - including Scarborough, the Isle of Wight, North Devon, the Cotswolds and Norfolk - have seen sharp increases.

Ministers are looking at whether holiday lets should be registered.

This comes amid concern that inflated property prices are pushing established residents out of many areas.

Estate agents have reported a surge in second home ownership during the pandemic, with many buyers now offering these as holiday lets.

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

I've noticed SSTC's are coming back to market, even some from 6 months ago. Vendors worried about the market, wanting to hurry the sale up? Buyers thinking they offered too much? Second home buyers feeling unloved?

[One percent]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

Longish post, of the all threads merge to one type.

An example of picking your way thru multiple data, surveys and whatnot to try and gauge the true picture.

Maybe only of direct interest to @One percentbut, as Ive said on here and TOS, Scarborough is the future. Lessons to be learned, trend to be extended etc etc.

This regards Scarborough borough rather than town.

The borough is the one that registers  in the census/ukgov figures. Steers -> Filey.

Census 2021 update!

Census: Population of England and Wales grew 6% in a decade

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61966084

 

Scarbs borough is one of the few falling places.

FT pop down 5%-10%.

This is mainly the holiday let writ large, and mainly around Whitby.

There just rent that many FHL in Scabby. Im sure theyve gone up in the last 10 years, but theyve risen from a base.

FHL in Whitby are now at curse level.

Next one - 

Older population in England and Wales hits record high

https://www.ft.com/content/c8334a2a-cef9-4ed8-9470-5a4dbcfcd351

https://www.ft.com/content/c8334a2a-cef9-4ed8-9470-5a4dbcfcd351

 

 

Hopefully this shows - its not a normal jpeg. Magic interactive chart.

The darker areas are where OAPs are 30%.

Scarbs is now 27.5%.

Again,. one of the handful of places where there is an extraordinary high number of OAPs.

Now UK town have between 20%-50% unemployment i.e. people dependent on one for of public money - TC,. UC, DLA etc etc for the majotiry (40%+) of their income,.

Scarbs is around 50%. This is more guesswork/deducing. But its roughly accurate.

Another FT -

Young men are slipping quietly through the economy’s cracks

A positive employment trend for young women masks a rise in the proportion of inactive young men

https://www.ft.com/content/388440d8-2dc7-4e3f-8107-b4b55edb8c6c

Its not employment for wimmin. Its comedy PT job to get the TC/UC cash and bennies. Thats all.

Faced with being taxed to pay for Fat Shazza and being outcompeted by Fat Shazza n Shazah on housing, off the boat, Dazza, Wazza, Dena is not even trying, falling out of the formal workforce.

Both Whitby n Scabby have had a large number (10%+ increase in housing stock) built inthe last 10 years.

The majority of it is going to Fat Shazza - 20% reserved for social rents/LHA, another 30% bought by BTL who benefit farm.

All this extra housing is getting scummy single mums  from boro, Leeds, Ull pouring into them.

'Dazza is very violent to me n the 6 kids. I want rehousing ...'

Basically every other shops has 'Apply within' in them.

Yet noone is available for work. 50% non working.

Labour labour everywhere but not a drop to work ...

Which brings me back to - Who the fuck is going to buy your house question?

30% of the population are OAPs. They are staying put, rarely moving.

50% of the working age (~50-60% of the population) are not working.

~15%-20% are students.

The number of mortgages i.e. the thing that drives the housing market must be fucking tiny.

The nubmer of IO BTL sales/housing sales are ramping up as th IO BTL look to quit. They are too late. Theer is no market and theyve played a mjor part in destroying the local OO market.

There still the idiots pouring into FHL

Time for action on Whitby second homes and Airbnb issue - Andrew Vine

IT’S an eerie feeling to walk through a village that feels utterly deserted, like stepping onto an empty film set before cast and crew arrive to bring it to life.

By Andrew Vine

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/time-for-action-on-whitby-second-homes-and-airbnb-issue-andrew-vine-3747030

That’s exactly the sensation I had a few weeks ago whilst walking the Yorkshire clifftop path between Saltburn and Whitby, on a weekday before the tourism season got into full swing.

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Yorkshire's coastal towns must not be spoiled by second homes - The Yorkshire Po...

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Passing through Staithes and Runswick Bay, there was hardly a soul to be seen.

The people of Whitby recently voted overwhelmingly in favour of restricting holiday lets and second homes to preserve their community.

Nobody out and about and no sign of life in the houses, many with their curtains closed on a bright afternoon.

This is not because the adults were all out at work and the children at school.

It’s because the populations of these villages have shrunk to a fraction of what they once were as second-home ownership has hollowed them out until they are all but empty of people outside weekends and the school holidays.

It is sad and depressing to see them like this, but they are far from the only examples on our coastline. A little farther south, in Whitby and Robin Hood’s Bay, there are streets which stand silent and empty for long stretches of the year.

Inexorably, the character of these places is being worn away by the march of second homes. People born there are squeezed out by visitors with deeper pockets who have little stake in the community and only the most transient connections to their history and heritage.

The people of Whitby recognised this when they voted so overwhelmingly to ban further second-home ownership. Though the poll has no legal force, it was an immensely valuable exercise in local democracy in which the town expressed its unease and spoke both eloquently and admirably of the importance of true community spirit.

Our coast is not alone in having that spirit undermined by those who see communities not as places to belong, but only as boltholes from busy working weeks in Leeds or Sheffield.

In the North Yorkshire Moors and the Dales, market towns are being drained of young families who should be the lifeblood of their futures because they cannot afford properties that are being snapped up at inflated prices as second homes.

And in York, MP Rachael Maskell is pressing for the licensing of Airbnb properties because so many have become noisy party venues spoiling the lives of nearby residents.

Thankfully, in Yorkshire we haven’t yet reached the crisis point of Cornwall where there are NHS staff living in caravans because so few properties remain available to rent or buy due to Airbnb lets, but it is surely only a matter of time before something similar starts happening.

The people of Whitby and all the other places so uneasy about the hollowing-out of their communities deserve to get their wish, for the sake of all the people trying to get a foot on the property ladder in places they love and belong, and also for the sake of the future.

Schools, community centres and shops face closure if permanent populations are gradually excluded and villages with once-distinctive identities and traditions are effectively reduced to nothing more than holiday camps.

Turning the tide against this less-than-benign invasion won’t be easy, but Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove’s attempts to make a start ought to be applauded by anybody worried about what is happening to so many places in Yorkshire and beyond.

His proposals to give elected mayors powers to ban owners of second homes from letting them on sites such as Airbnb are overdue. They are driving legitimate bed and breakfasts and hotels, which pay business rates and are part of their local communities, out of business.

Given the strength of feeling about this on the coast, the proposed new mayor for York and North Yorkshire would be likely to find this at the top of their agenda.

But Mr Gove should go farther. Local authorities will soon have the power to double council tax on unoccupied properties, but in Wales, the devolved administration plans to quadruple it, a move worth adopting nationwide if the country is serious about safeguarding communities and giving young people a chance of having a place of their own.

Changes to the planning laws are also needed, to make it far less attractive for Airbnb owners to turn a fast – and largely tax-free – few quid out of letting their second homes.

They are getting away with running businesses that are not subject to any regulation. Instead, they should be required to gain planning permission for a change of use, which would also make it easier for tax authorities to track down earnings from them.

This is about saving some of the most attractive places in Yorkshire from becoming ghost towns and villages, giving them a chance to remain what they should be – strong communities with a sense of identity, where people can build lives and bring up families.

 

Yorkshire communities being turned into nightmares due to Air BnB party houses, says MP

A Yorkshire MP has introduced a bill to licence short-term and holiday-let accommodation in a bid to stop visitors to the city turning “wonderful little communities in York into nightmares.”

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/yorkshire-communities-being-turned-into-nightmares-due-to-air-bnb-party-houses-says-mp-3745447

York Central MP Rachael Maskell said she is being contacted by constituents who no longer feel safe in their homes due to an increasing number of Airbnbs, with many becoming “party houses” hired by stag and hen groups.

Ms Maskelll said there were around 2,000 Airbnbs in her constituency and that they were becoming increasingly common in the outskirts of the city and in the more rural villages.

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Speaking in a debate in parliament about short-term letting, the MP said: “In the city centre, we often find streets—family streets—where there are five or six Airbnbs, and it is having a serious impact.”

Rachel Maskell

Ms Maskell said one property in a cul-de-sac in The Groves area was being advertised for 30 people

“It is at the end of a family residential street, and people in my community have told me that the noise goes on all night,” she said.

“People are half-clad in the streets. Women do not feel safe down some of the back alleys in the Groves, where a lot of children play.

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Man died 'after contracting salmonella from duck eggs bought at a country show'

“People do not feel safe in their own home anymore. I heard from one family who put their house on the market and moved out of the city, which was the only way they could escape the party houses that were increasingly in their area.”

Ms Maskell said developers were turning domestic homes into short-term lets and that the issue was distorting the local housing market.

She added: “Every single time a property comes on to the housing market, in come these owners of Airbnb, cash in hand, hoovering up the properties ahead of people who have saved meticulously for their mortgage. And they are offering over the market price for those properties.”

A private members’ bill introduced by Ms Maskell this week would see a licence required to turn domestic properties into short-term and holiday-let accommodation, give local authorities the power to issue fines and to remove licences, and seek to introduce bans on such properties in certain areas.

Ms Maskell pointed to European cities such as Nice and Lisbon which have had success in introducing licensing schemes. Scotland is also seeking to introduce similar measures.

City of York Council’s executive member for housing, Coun Denise Craghill, has instructed council officers to look at the scale of the issue and explore options for tackling problems in the city.

She added: “I met recently with Rachael Maskell and residents from the Groves who have been suffering from the impacts of large scale holiday lets in the streets including excessive noise and disturbance.

“These cases and a number of others are currently being actively pursued by planning enforcement as material change of use.

“Unfortunately, as current change of use legislation stands, each case has to be pursued on its own individual merits – so any further powers at the national level whether through planning or a licensing scheme would be very welcome. In the meantime, I will continue to look into measures we can take locally.”

Ms Maskell added that the plans for a simple registration scheme being considered by the government did not go far enough.

“The world has changed rapidly,” she said. “I just say to them that we need to move on from that now and look at a full licensing scheme. A registration scheme would simply have serious deficiencies.”

The next stage for the bill, its second reading, is scheduled to take place in December.

 

You can bet money of FHL n AirBNB requriing planning and the removal of SBRR for FHLs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The population of scabby district is dropping massively. The local secondary school (they have been merged), the school numbers are at something like 50 percent capacity. Yet there are massive house building programmes. Shoving them in every available green space.  This impoverishes the lives of those living in the town. Of new builds, something like 78 percent are bought as second homes.  I’m praying for a massive interest rate increase to stop all this madness. 

[spygirl]

Just now, One percent said:

The population of scabby district is dropping massively. The local secondary school (they have been merged), the school numbers are at something like 50 percent capacity. Yet there are massive house building programmes. Shoving them in every available green space.  This impoverishes the lives of those living in the town. Of new builds, something like 78 percent are bought as second homes.  I’m praying for a massive interest rate increase to stop all this madness. 

TA the moment, the only population they (whitby + Scabby_ are getting are single mothers from further afield.

The problem, as seen in 14p UC ... is as soon as the kid hits 18 they are out of the LHA housing and into a bedsit.

I have a feeling that benefit reforms as IR raise will see a more aggressive reform.

With the updates on FHL + AirBnB timeless like they about to drop the FHL pays full business rate and needs planning bomb.

The YP article got the tax situation (lack of) and panning right,. which as rare as journo normally stumble aorund going on about ctax.

Basically - dont buy a new build on an estate.

 

 

[spygirl]

8 minutes ago, One percent said:

The population of scabby district is dropping massively. The local secondary school (they have been merged), the school numbers are at something like 50 percent capacity. Yet there are massive house building programmes. Shoving them in every available green space.  This impoverishes the lives of those living in the town. Of new builds, something like 78 percent are bought as second homes.  I’m praying for a massive interest rate increase to stop all this madness. 

Current FHL boom will be ended any one of  -

Higher IRs.

Removal of SBRR

Less customers

Planning requirement

I have a feeling theyll be hit by all 4.

Ive my eye on leeds and Cumberland BS, both the main FHL mortgage banks.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

38 minutes ago, One percent said:

The population of scabby district is dropping massively. The local secondary school (they have been merged), the school numbers are at something like 50 percent capacity. Yet there are massive house building programmes. Shoving them in every available green space.  This impoverishes the lives of those living in the town. Of new builds, something like 78 percent are bought as second homes.  I’m praying for hyperinflation and a massive interest rate increase to stop all this madness. 

Slight edit required with CPI already 9%+ and RPI 11%+ while the base rate is 1.25%

[One percent]

49 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Current FHL boom will be ended any one of  -

Higher IRs.

Removal of SBRR

Less customers

Planning requirement

I have a feeling theyll be hit by all 4.

Ive my eye on leeds and Cumberland BS, both the main FHL mortgage banks.

 

 

Government have slowly chipped away at profit in rental through the taxation system. They have deliberately taken it slowly imho and sent out warning signs for years. Due to this being a problem caused by government and they didn’t want to either crash the market or scare the horses. They will do the same to holiday homes and lets.