Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


haroldshand

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

London house prices down 2.2% from July peak....that's a -2.2% fall in 5 weeks and 2 days.

That's very interesting, where did you get the data from?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HousePriceMania
10 minutes ago, No One said:

That's very interesting, where did you get the data from?

UK Property Lion gets it from the rightmove website.

 


We normally only do this every month/quarter but since I've been thinking about buying a house wanted to get a heads up if the market had turned so started looking every week.

Sales volumes up...prices down.

Edited by HousePriceMania
  • Informative 2
  • Cheers 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

How long does RM take to update when house have been sold? 

I haven't been watching closely for very long. My area has 8+ sold most months up until Feb, since then until May there's a maximum of 4 a month. 

Last updated 21st July. Nothing since May but perhaps I'm just clutching at straws. 

My area has gone 280->278

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
3 hours ago, Calcutta said:

How long does RM take to update when house have been sold? 

I haven't been watching closely for very long. My area has 8+ sold most months up until Feb, since then until May there's a maximum of 4 a month. 

Last updated 21st July. Nothing since May but perhaps I'm just clutching at straws. 

They update of the land reg.our house bought in April 21 has only recently been registered.my solicitor said there are some taking a year and a bit.

 

used To be 50% were on RM within 3 months then the rest within 6 or so

  • Agree 1
  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@HousePriceMania

Just received a letter from my bank informing me that my SVR has just increased to 4.75%. Not far to go to your 5% prediction in this year.

Barclays SVR appears to be over that already, 5.24%

  • Informative 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder
3 minutes ago, Boon said:

Barclays SVR appears to be over that already, 5.24%

I know its not connected to these latest rate rises, but I saw something I have not seen for a while today on my property RM search.

"Unexpectedly re available and reduced for a quick sale, no forward chain".

  • Informative 3
  • Lol 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
3 hours ago, No One said:

My area has gone 280->278

LE2 has gone over 400 for the first time in ages

ALso,lots stuck in chains.incl SSTC =964 for sale which means liquidty is a real issue imho so pricing not that transparent.

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^1431&propertyTypes=&includeSSTC=true&mustHave=&dontShow=&furnishTypes=&keywords=

 

which when you look at completions around 90 over the last few years,means a lot of sales are going to fail.USed to be years ago,LE2 would have 800 for sale and 500+ in SSTC but that was many moons ago when RM still did invetroy data.

image.png.a2a232935fcd02fe628b1d91d86c2427.png

Edited by sancho panza
  • Informative 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

worth a listen.US centric obviously but some similarities.

 

 

Mav talks about rent cost in the US and second hand car prices.

  • Informative 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chewing Grass
5 hours ago, Calcutta said:

How long does RM take to update when house have been sold? 

I haven't been watching closely for very long. My area has 8+ sold most months up until Feb, since then until May there's a maximum of 4 a month. 

Last updated 21st July. Nothing since May but perhaps I'm just clutching at straws. 

They update very quickly, numbers fluctuate by ones and twos during the week with Monday being the day when the sold ones mainly disappear. This week in my area Monday was 15 lower than Friday. A semi up the road was on and off within 10 days so I take the numbers as fairly up to date and accurate.

  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

HousePriceMania
5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@HousePriceMania

Just received a letter from my bank informing me that my SVR has just increased to 4.75%. Not far to go to your 5% prediction in this year.

Im happy to round up and say I was right :D

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder
6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Im happy to round up and say I was right :D

 

4 hours ago, Boon said:

Barclays SVR appears to be over that already, 5.24%

 

  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

HousePriceMania
24 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

 

 

Thanks for that.  We're well ahead of where I thought we'd be now.

I actually said to someone last year, before they went and bought a dog of a house, we'll not buy a house till mortgage rates are above 6% and we know what houses are really worth.

Looks like, one way or another, we're about to find out.

  • Agree 1
  • Cheers 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a crooked smile
1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thanks for that.  We're well ahead of where I thought we'd be now.

I actually said to someone last year, before they went and bought a dog of a house, we'll not buy a house till mortgage rates are above 6% and we know what houses are really worth.

Looks like, one way or another, we're about to find out.

You're never going to buy a house. How much have you spent on rent over the years and how much do you think you'll spend on rent over the next 10?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Data going through tallies with the couple of houses familiar to me going on the market the last few months and not catching a bid, was surprised as they were not bad value versus the supposed market.  One was taken off and the other moved to different agent so may have progressed but not heard of anything.

Watch London, if properties can't shift there then elevated prices outside just not sustainable, last two years nearly all driven by outflows and WFH I reckon, even bigger affordability gap as a result vs local wages. Doesn't even take account of shitstorm of bills coming this winter. 

 

  • Agree 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a crooked smile

From Sky:

US inflation grew at a slower pace than expected in July, according to the latest government figures, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to deliver another super-sized interest rate hike.

Consumer prices jumped by 8.5% in July compared with a year earlier, down from the 9.1% year-on-year jump in June.

 

On a monthly basis, prices were unchanged between June and July, for the first time in more than two years.

Following the inflation news, traders slashed bets that the Federal Reserve would deliver a third consecutive 75-basis-point hike.

A 50-basis-point rise is now widely expected when the central bank meets in September.

Interest rate rise may continue for a while but I wouldn't bet on them rising for long and could well go into reverse 

  • Agree 1
  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Evening Standard via Yahoo finance:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/homeowners-face-mortgage-timebomb-urgent-185423638.html

"it’s estimated that 40 per cent of fixed-rate mortgages are set to expire within the next year, meaning that those borrowers who took out a loan when the Bank of England base rate was at an all-time low of 0.1 per cent will now be exposed to a higher rate following the sixth rate hike of the year this month to 1.75 per cent...It’s estimated that £1,872 per year is set to be added to a typical mortgage, with the figure significantly higher in London."

Two years on from the stamp duty holiday and its squeeky bum time for people coming off their fix.

  • Lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a crooked smile
1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Two years on from the stamp duty holiday and its squeeky bum time for people coming off their fix.

Is it tho? How much have wages gone up by? I had a 17k pay adjustment around Jan / Feb and a 3k payrise in March. I'm not saying that's typical but im saying over the lifetime of a fix particularly at the moment people's salaries are increasing rapidly.

I'm over paying my most expensive mortgage by 13k a year at the moment.

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

You're never going to buy a house. How much have you spent on rent over the years and how much do you think you'll spend on rent over the next 10?

Playing the man not the ball, always a good look.

  • Agree 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

I'm over paying my most expensive mortgage by 13k a year at the moment.

I always paid the 10% every year off my mortgage, it makes a massive difference after around 5 years.

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

You're never going to buy a house. How much have you spent on rent over the years and how much do you think you'll spend on rent over the next 10?

I STR in 2014. The main reason I did it was that it was completely unsuitable for my physically disabled son. It would also have been helpful to have more liquidity to increase my Afren short. Borrowing more to buy something suitable would have meant never retiring. 

My winnings from that Afren bet covered 3 years of rent. Other sensible investment/gambling decisions (delete as appropriate) have seen my wealth rise such that I could buy that place I sold 3x at 2014 prices and 2x at current prices.

My divis more than cover my rent.

Just in case that sounds too conceited, that was despite losing about £60K periodically shorting Tesla. Though at one point I was losing money shorting Wirecard.... 

  • Cheers 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a crooked smile
1 minute ago, GTM said:

I STR in 2014. The main reason I did it was that it was completely unsuitable for my physically disabled son. It would also have been helpful to have more liquidity to increase my Afren short. Borrowing more to buy something suitable would have meant never retiring. 

My winnings from that Afren bet covered 3 years of rent. Other sensible investment/gambling decisions (delete as appropriate) have seen my wealth rise such that I could buy that place I sold 3x at 2014 prices and 2x at current prices.

My divis more than cover my rent.

Just in case that sounds too conceited, that was despite losing about £60K periodically shorting Tesla. Though at one point I was losing money shorting Wirecard.... 

Very well done, few have the guts, skills or knowledge to do this. I think @sancho panzadoes the same or similar.

TheCountofNowhere claims on ToS to have a big share portfolio but I've seen posters call this out as BS . With someone like Sancho you can tell its true because he posts quite detailed and informative trading details.

  • Informative 1
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Very well done, few have the guts, skills or knowledge to do this. I think @sancho panzadoes the same or similar.

Thank you, but I think skills and knowledge is pushing it. 😂

I think what I was good at was recognising an opportunity. The collapse in the oil price meant the opportunity to short poor quality, overly indebted oilies needed to be taken. Afren, Gulf Keystone, Petroceltic, Xcite Energy and a few others. But also recognising it wasn't the same in 2020. The weak companies had already went to the wall. You couldn't go wrong with oilies in 2020.

I shorted Wirecard periodically to exhaustion. I'd given up, but then I saw a story that the forensic auditors weren't signing off on their cash balances. I understood what that meant and turned a 20 grand loss into a 30 grand win.

I'm 60 grand down from shorting Tesla. 😭

  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...