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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


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Frank Hovis
3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I can't remember the last time I saw a removals van round my immediate locale other than the Stalag-Luft McCarthy & Stone death flats. 300% more extensions go up than folk moving.

 

Are you in an expensive area?  I'm in Cornwall so house prices are maybe slightly higher than the national average but not by much.

The two bits of town I know best - where I live and where my parents live - have seen an unusually high volume of transactions over the last six months.

The houses aren't being sold next day, some can take a couple of months, but they are selling and people are moving.

The two families moving in that I have actually spoken to were both already local to the area and moving up to bigger houses because they had young children.

Maybe it's the stamp duty holiday because the last time I noticed it being this active was six years ago when because of a similar stamp duty break a lot of people moved including myself.

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I know everyone on here is clued in to the ridiculous state of UK housing and none of this is news to you lot, but I need to vent... A mate of mine has just exchanged on a new-build (yeah, I know

My mate whose sale of a 125k house fell through for the third time since June was lamenting how he can’t shift his 125k house yet the nice 300k ones in his area seem to go quick mostly to cash buyers.

Should have mentioned that first. What the fuck do people expect, living in fucking Croydon? Its like complaining your foot stinks after deliberately stepping in dog shit.

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spygirl

I found this the other week and have already posted a few times.

It almost answers my question- How many mortgages have been sold in Scabby . Or other towns?

https://www.fca.org.uk/data/product-sales-data/mortgage-product-sales-data-geographic-area

50k mortgages sold in Yorkshire n Humber in 2019

That's just 5k/month.

For an area with 5.5m people inc v large cities like Leeds, York, Ull, Bradford.

 

 

 

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reformed nice guy
Just now, spygirl said:

I found this the other week and have already posted a few times.

It almost answers my question- How many mortgages have been sold in Scabby . Or other towns?

https://www.fca.org.uk/data/product-sales-data/mortgage-product-sales-data-geographic-area

50k mortgages sold in Yorkshire n Humber in 2019

That's just 5k/month.

For an area with 5.5m people inc v large cities like Leeds, York, Ull, Bradford.

 

 

 

Lot of the Pakis do them without official mortgages though

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Frank Hovis
1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Lot of the Pakis do them without official mortgages though

And a lot of cash buyers.

I bought for cash; my parents bought for cash.

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spygirl

I think cash buyers make up 20% of a normal market - whatever that is now.

I think the number of cash buyers gas stayed stable but mortgage buyers crashed.

You are not going to have much of a housing market mainly cash buyers.

Waiting for Godot.

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stop_the_craziness

I don't think the market will crash, it will just become more and more unfair over time.

People who inherit houses will then be able to buy houses.  People who don't wont.  If you inherit a house you don't want to live in then you sell it to someone else who is either a cash buyer/BTL or someone who has inherited enough to get a deposit and a mortage.

Everyone else just rents.  Forever.

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spygirl
1 hour ago, stop_the_craziness said:

I don't think the market will crash, it will just become more and more unfair over time.

People who inherit houses will then be able to buy houses.  People who don't wont.  If you inherit a house you don't want to live in then you sell it to someone else who is either a cash buyer/BTL or someone who has inherited enough to get a deposit and a mortage.

Everyone else just rents.  Forever.

People die.

Seriously. You cannot hold a property position much beyond death.

The increase in under 40s having to rent, and the higher age of home owners makes the holding a property a much riskier position.

Prices fall during one of the UKs nasty recession.

Now imagine having the 90s recession again, where the over 55s have 3 or 4 times housing position - OO and 2-3 BTL, and the under 40s are only on 1 month notice.

This appears to be whats happening in London.

 

 

 

 

 

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Bobthebuilder
On 13/12/2020 at 11:06, spygirl said:

Even if you could fix at 0% for 25 years, 97% of the Lobdon pop could not afford to buy in inner London.

Agree with this.

One thing I have noticed this year is falling prices in some London areas but a lot of Dorset is now more expensive than the same London areas, I can't work that out.

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Shamone
5 minutes ago, Bandit Banzai said:

I know everyone on here is clued in to the ridiculous state of UK housing and none of this is news to you lot, but I need to vent...

A mate of mine has just exchanged on a new-build (yeah, I know). Here's the floor plan:

image.png.c190d8d22afb5c3df1634fcc1caf9b55.png

image.png.284cb26c014ae8d5ba48a53a30a9821d.png

How did we get to this. look at that main bedroom. Any idea where you put a wardrobe? chest of drawers? laundry basket?

A double bed is 1.3 metres wide so you get ~500mm down each side of the bed.

But hey, they put an en-suite in. ffs.

And it's got a 'utility' room. ....it's not even 1 square metre. So basically you can shove a washing machine in your 'utility room'.

There is nowhere to store anything.

I could have lived in it when I was single as I would have used the spare room as a study/storage. But two adults planning to have a family....

And what does this cost? ...250k. And we are talking 80 miles from London.

And why is he buying a new-build? Needs to do it with help-to-buy. I am assuming HTB only works on new-builds - if not then I will be really disappointed he has 'bought' this.

Now I am a free-market man. I hate that the main house builders build this shit. But I have always said that if people didn't buy it then they wouldn't build it. But it seems HTB just encourages them to build this crap.

Plus all the hassle of on going grounds maintenance charges and unadopted roads/street lighting.

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Bandit Banzai
Just now, Shamone said:

Plus all the hassle of on going grounds maintenance charges and unadopted roads/street lighting.

Yes - I had no idea. he mentioned something about this. He has to pay some monthly charge toward the upkeep of the surrounding environment. I guess this is part of these new build estates? I have no idea about any of this. I was worried the daft bastard had bought a leasehold house, but I checked and it's freehold.

I bought a standard 50 year old freehold house. I don't pay towards the grass verges being cut - the council get council tax for that.

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Shamone
6 minutes ago, Bandit Banzai said:

Yes - I had no idea. he mentioned something about this. He has to pay some monthly charge toward the upkeep of the surrounding environment. I guess this is part of these new build estates? I have no idea about any of this. I was worried the daft bastard had bought a leasehold house, but I checked and it's freehold.

I bought a standard 50 year old freehold house. I don't pay towards the grass verges being cut - the council get council tax for that.

I didn’t know how bad it was until we looked into buying one. You get to pay council tax twice! 

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spygirl
16 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Agree with this.

One thing I have noticed this year is falling prices in some London areas but a lot of Dorset is now more expensive than the same London areas, I can't work that out.

Most equity is held by oler people.

As I said earlier - a lot of towns esp. London looks like council estates - retired OAP who worked and bennie scum, with little younger working in between.

In London the bennie scum is efnic + scummier.

London 60+ age group will be full of civil servey type how havea very secure gold plated pension and lots of housing equity.

Looking around at the absolute 3rd world shitholers that these teachers, GPs, DSS type have spent the last 30-40 providing 'servkces' too, funded by the rest of the UKm, they suddenly decide the place is a shithole and want to leave ASAP.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Bandit Banzai said:

image.png.c190d8d22afb5c3df1634fcc1caf9b55.png

image.png.284cb26c014ae8d5ba48a53a30a9821d.png

How did we get to this. look at that main bedroom. Any idea where you put a wardrobe? chest of drawers? laundry basket?

 

Just be glad he's bought from one of the better builders and not Persimmon or Barratt, but I agree that's no one of their finest designs.

He'll have more room than this version where they've managed to squeeze 3 bedrooms into the same foot print.
image.png.950e8ffa8f9e99c40e971d8a1449d7e7.png
 

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spunko

Will MIRAS really make much difference to the average Joe? Quick back of fag packet calcs suggest it'll be about £50 a month saved/reclaimed?

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spunko
13 hours ago, Bandit Banzai said:

How did we get to this. look at that main bedroom. Any idea where you put a wardrobe? chest of drawers? laundry basket?

Because people like your mate buy new builds. It amazes me that people tour them and don't realise how tiny they (often) are, and walk away. The mind really boggles when it comes to new builds IMO.

Paying MORE for LESS, and it's rampant.

Is doing a bit of DIY/painting really that bad?

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spygirl
2 minutes ago, spunko said:

Will MIRAS really make much difference to the average Joe? Quick back of fag packet calcs suggest it'll be about £50 a month saved/reclaimed?

MIRAS 'worked' when you have medium to high interest rates.

MIRAS really did take the pain out of high IRs.

Combine MIRAS and medium wage growth and, with ~10% wage growth,  all you ever needed to do was survive the first ~5 years of mortgage payments.

MRIAS effectively gave people negative or close to 0 IRs.

 

 

 

 

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JoeDavola
On 13/12/2020 at 10:04, gibbon said:

Posted this on another thread so i'm repeating myself but fuck it, there ain't ever going to be a property crash, the housing market is 100% backed by the government. It will happily print a few trillion to keep it propped up and everyone will get a little poorer but houses will stay frothy. "muh economy will collapse though if they keep printing blah blah"...nah...won't be like that..we ain't gonna just wake up one day and be all living under bridges. Just every year we'll notice little things...butter more expensive..swear it used to be 50p..shit like that. This is a multi generational thing. Those who are betting or hoping for a crash are there fooling themselves. Ok maybe your great great great grandchildren will experience it but by that time they'll all be street urchins anyway so who gives a fuck?

Yeah it'll just be each generation having a lower quality of life than the last.

So a generation or two ago a normal bloke could buy a nice house and support a family on one wage.

Now look at what it takes.

Extrapolate that over the next 30 years and we end up like the folks in china making iPhones and sleeping in the factory.

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5 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah it'll just be each generation having a lower quality of life than the last.

So a generation or two ago a normal bloke could buy a nice house and support a family on one wage.

Now look at what it takes.

Extrapolate that over the next 30 years and we end up like the folks in china making iPhones and sleeping in the factory.

Actually making shit again would be a good outcome so I doubt it will happen. We're heading more into a bladerunner dystopia, the big tech billionaires living in their high rises while everyone else has reverted back to living in rented slum  tenements and garden sheds. 99% of the population will be on UBI which will just about cover tenement rent, UberEats food deliveries, a Amazon Prime account and a Netflix subscription. Cars will all be electric Teslas and purely a preserve of the rich. 

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JoeDavola
19 minutes ago, gibbon said:

99% of the population will be on UBI which will just about cover tenement rent, UberEats food deliveries, a Amazon Prime account and a Netflix subscription. Cars will all be electric Teslas and purely a preserve of the rich. 

It seems that we're heading in that direction.

Most men basically living what is currently in the West known as the NEET lifestlye. Just enough money for food, a big screen TV and video games.

And the percentage of men who actually reproduce will continue to drop. If celibacy rates in young men are at at 35%+ at the moment imagine what it'll be like in a UBI society where everything is done through apps.

Not saying that things will necessarily go to the extreme you mention, but I can't see how they won't continue to get closer and closer to that.

Edited by JoeDavola
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A tremendous # on the lung
21 hours ago, Bandit Banzai said:

I know everyone on here is clued in to the ridiculous state of UK housing and none of this is news to you lot, but I need to vent...

A mate of mine has just exchanged on a new-build (yeah, I know). Here's the floor plan:

image.png.c190d8d22afb5c3df1634fcc1caf9b55.png

image.png.284cb26c014ae8d5ba48a53a30a9821d.png

How did we get to this. look at that main bedroom. Any idea where you put a wardrobe? chest of drawers? laundry basket?

A double bed is 1.3 metres wide so you get ~500mm down each side of the bed.

But hey, they put an en-suite in. ffs.

And it's got a 'utility' room. ....it's not even 1 square metre. So basically you can shove a washing machine in your 'utility room'.

There is nowhere to store anything.

I could have lived in it when I was single as I would have used the spare room as a study/storage. But two adults planning to have a family....

And what does this cost? ...250k. And we are talking 80 miles from London.

And why is he buying a new-build? Needs to do it with help-to-buy. I am assuming HTB only works on new-builds - if not then I will be really disappointed he has 'bought' this.

Now I am a free-market man. I hate that the main house builders build this shit. But I have always said that if people didn't buy it then they wouldn't build it. But it seems HTB just encourages them to build this crap.

That really is shit.

"Clothes? Where we're going, we don't need clothes"

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Bandit Banzai
8 hours ago, spongeh said:

Just be glad he's bought from one of the better builders and not Persimmon or Barratt, but I agree that's no one of their finest designs.

He'll have more room than this version where they've managed to squeeze 3 bedrooms into the same foot print.
image.png.950e8ffa8f9e99c40e971d8a1449d7e7.png
 

I think you've gone one better with that one :(

It's getting close to those prison cells in despotic regimes where the poor bastards can't stand up properly or move around - designed to crush a human spirit.

Three beds - so a family. There's nowhere to put anything.

Normally I'd say, screw the idiots who buy this stuff. But I had a quick look and HTB is only for new builds. So the builder is in the nice position of selling a product to a customer who can't actually afford it. Hence they can build any old shite.

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1 minute ago, Bandit Banzai said:

I think you've gone one better with that one :(

It's getting close to those prison cells in despotic regimes where the poor bastards can't stand up properly or move around - designed to crush a human spirit.

Three beds - so a family. There's nowhere to put anything.

Normally I'd say, screw the idiots who buy this stuff. But I had a quick look and HTB is only for new builds. So the builder is in the nice position of selling a product to a customer who can't actually afford it. Hence they can build any old shite.

On the edge of our village we've had a massive new build estate built with a mixture of Bloor and Persimmon homes. The people who've bought the Persimmon homes on HTB must be desperate, not only are the designs terrible, but the quality of construction is appalling.

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wherebee
9 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah it'll just be each generation having a lower quality of life than the last.

So a generation or two ago a normal bloke could buy a nice house and support a family on one wage.

Now look at what it takes.

Extrapolate that over the next 30 years and we end up like the folks in china making iPhones and sleeping in the factory.

my great grandparents ran a pub; everyone under one roof.  my grandparents were working class (both sides), in service for much of their working life, but were able to buy a house with a mortgage in putney/wales in the 30's.  My parents were working class that moved into middle class due to house price inflation and generous pensions.  My sister and I are middle class, but a large part due to inherited wealth (certainly on my sisters side).  I've been in the top 10% of income earners for the last ten years due to luck and smarts, but I'd say I'm middle-middle class - still need to work a bit but enough savings for 5 year frugal living.  Earning a lot of income doesn't help that much when you have an expensive divorce plus income tax.  My pensions are going to be fuck all, and as I have said elsewhere I expect many pensions to collapse in the next 20 years until my retirement.  My sister got onto the Brown gravy train of public money and has caned it in since, but has spent all of it on her kids.

My kids are smart, but will inherit less due to my lack of pension.  If they go to Uni, that will probably wipe out much of the free inheritance available.  The only plus side is that I think a re-industrialising of the west has to happen, which could kickstart wealth flows again.

Their kids.... who knows?

The high point, I think, was the boomer generation and their peak earnings of the 70's/80's and attached pensions.  All downhill since in most of the west.

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goldbug9999
On 14/12/2020 at 22:16, Bandit Banzai said:

I know everyone on here is clued in to the ridiculous state of UK housing and none of this is news to you lot, but I need to vent...

A mate of mine has just exchanged on a new-build (yeah, I know). Here's the floor plan:

image.png.c190d8d22afb5c3df1634fcc1caf9b55.png

image.png.284cb26c014ae8d5ba48a53a30a9821d.png

 

Plus I'm guessing tiny back garden, one allocated parking space if they are lucky, pavement that goes right past your font door.

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