Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Wight Flight]

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

Doesnt the latest Tory scam to rig house price assist you in anyway? i.e state backed 95% mortgages.

The only thing that would help me is if they stopped 'helping' altogether.

 

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

Doesnt the latest Tory scam to rig house price assist you in anyway? i.e state backed 95% mortgages.

We're one house price crash away from "you will own nothing and be happy"!

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

The only thing that would help me is if they stopped 'helping' altogether.

Yes it just drives a man insane.

How the fuck are you supposed to plan for the future with these cunts constantly piling in with other peoples money.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

We're one house price crash away from "you will own nothing and be happy"!

Only way they'll make me happy is by deporting me to somewhere sunny, promising to never allow me to return to England.

Or if the 650MPs all held hands and made a tandem jump off the cliffs of Dover, at low tide!

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

Doesnt the latest Tory scam to rig house price assist you in anyway? i.e state backed 95% mortgages.

It worries me that that's how desperate they are to prop it up.What happens if this fails?Then it means there's a long way to go to find the equilibrium between wages and house prices.

This article sums it up well.As we've discussed before on here,this is an equity swapping market currently.Banks have been quite happy to lend to people with equity these last 12 months,maybe a little more reticent with FTBers.As @Wight Flight says that's pushed up prices which creates a different problem for the govt.

All in all,it's created uncertainty in the minds of FTBers.

 

 

12/11/20

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/buying-home-coronavirus-2020-first-time-buyers-a140646.html

Mortgage lenders have tightened their purse strings over the past few months, partly to cope with increased demand since the housing market opened up again, partly to guard against the ongoing economic uncertainty — but this is playing havoc with the plans of first-time buyers.

Before the coronavirus pandemic, first-time buyers were the most significant sector of the property market and accounted for more than half of homes purchased with a mortgage, with over 350,000 people in the UK buying their first home in 2019.

With the cost of buying a first home in the UK now £241,000, the national average deposit of £47,000 equates to around 20 per cent of the purchase price.

 

And in London, the average first-time buyer paid a staggering £109,000 deposit in the year to September which is around 23.5 per cent of the average £464,000 cost of a first home in the capital.

Despite saved deposits and having met pre-pandemic affordability criteria, seven in 10 UK first-time buyers now feel priced out of the market while 76 per cent feel angry, worried and confused by mortgage limitations.

First-time buyer mortgages

Since March mortgage lenders have been steadily withdrawing high loan-to-value loans, in some cases toughening terms and increasing interest rates for those with a 10 to 15 per cent deposit.

“As of this week, there are only 74 mortgage deals available for mortgage applicants with a loan-to-value over 90 per cent. By comparison, this time last year there were over 2,000."

Hina Bhudia of Knight Frank Finance says: “Ninety per cent loan-to-value mortgages are virtually non-existent. Buyers either can’t get one at all or if they do find a niche lender it’ll be at least 3.5 to 3.7 per cent.”

 

[sancho panza]

This table could get interesting when furlough ends.

https://www.ybs.co.uk/media-centre/2020-FTB-number-estimate/index.html

 

Table showing number of first-time buyers between 2007-2020

Year	Number of first-time buyers	Year-on-year change	Share of all mortgage house purchases
2007	357,590	-11.0%	36%
2008	191,040	-47.0%	38%
2009	193,940	2.0%	40%
2010	193,590	0%	38%
2011	187,990	-3%	40%
2012	211,920	13%	43%
2013	258,700	22%	46%
2014	300,370	16%	48%
2015	297,520	-1%	47%
2016	329,000	11%	51%
2017	345,920	5%	51%
2018	353,130	2%	51%
2019	351,260	-0.5%	51%
2020*	300,307	-14.5%	50%

[Wight Flight]

30 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Hina Bhudia of Knight Frank Finance says: “Ninety per cent loan-to-value mortgages are virtually non-existent. Buyers either can’t get one at all or if they do find a niche lender it’ll be at least 3.5 to 3.7 per cent.”

At which rate they are better off renting.

 

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

This table could get interesting when furlough ends.

https://www.ybs.co.uk/media-centre/2020-FTB-number-estimate/index.html

 

Table showing number of first-time buyers between 2007-2020

Year	Number of first-time buyers	Year-on-year change	Share of all mortgage house purchases
2007	357,590	-11.0%	36%
2008	191,040	-47.0%	38%
2009	193,940	2.0%	40%
2010	193,590	0%	38%
2011	187,990	-3%	40%
2012	211,920	13%	43%
2013	258,700	22%	46%
2014	300,370	16%	48%
2015	297,520	-1%	47%
2016	329,000	11%	51%
2017	345,920	5%	51%
2018	353,130	2%	51%
2019	351,260	-0.5%	51%
2020*	300,307	-14.5%	50%

I wonder how many are actual first time buyers, and how many are claiming to be so they can get access to the Tory bubble inflating schemes.

Insane that so many were willing to buy at the peak of the bubble in 2007 (pre Tory scams)

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

I wonder how many are actual first time buyers, and how many are claiming to be so they can get access to the Tory bubble inflating schemes.

Insane that so many were willing to buy at the peak of the bubble in 2007 (pre Tory scams)

Hard to see this ending in anything but tears.

 

[sancho panza]

form LCP email.interesting age demogrpahic moving to londinium.Also drop in retns.I think if anywhere will drop first it'll be the smoke.

[wherebee]

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

I wonder how many are actual first time buyers, and how many are claiming to be so they can get access to the Tory bubble inflating schemes.

Insane that so many were willing to buy at the peak of the bubble in 2007 (pre Tory scams)

If we moved back to the UK (not gonna happen,but..), then my wife would be able to claim to be a first time buyer as the house is fully in my name and she's not on the mortgage here.

 

Plus - if you go into a country from overseas, if you mark yourself as a first time buyer, they have no way to check...

[spygirl]

22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This table could get interesting when furlough ends.

https://www.ybs.co.uk/media-centre/2020-FTB-number-estimate/index.html

 

Table showing number of first-time buyers between 2007-2020

Year	Number of first-time buyers	Year-on-year change	Share of all mortgage house purchases
2007	357,590	-11.0%	36%
2008	191,040	-47.0%	38%
2009	193,940	2.0%	40%
2010	193,590	0%	38%
2011	187,990	-3%	40%
2012	211,920	13%	43%
2013	258,700	22%	46%
2014	300,370	16%	48%
2015	297,520	-1%	47%
2016	329,000	11%	51%
2017	345,920	5%	51%
2018	353,130	2%	51%
2019	351,260	-0.5%	51%
2020*	300,307	-14.5%	50%

Without FTBs theres fuckall market.

Thats what ive been seeing locally since 2004ish.

bear in mind most FTB pos7t 2008 will have been 'helped' by HTB,. For most itll be the first and last house they buy.

 

[spygirl]

On 15/04/2021 at 19:41, spygirl said:

Consumed by constant money worries': Mortgage prisoners tell of high interest rate woes ahead of debate on landmark law change

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9452947/Mortgage-prisoners-homeowners-paying-9-interest.html

They describe being sold interest-only or low-deposit mortgages in good faith before the financial crisis, usually with lenders like Northern Rock who were subsequently nationalised. 

And theyve still got IO mortgages.

 

 

Sam Patel, 46, is from West London and works in business development for a start-up. He took out an interest-only loan with a lender that later stopped providing new mortgages, and has paid 5.25 per cent interest for more than a decade.

On the advice of an independent financial adviser, I took out an interest-only non-status mortgage for £735,000 in 2002, on a rate of 2.5 per cent.

But after the financial crisis, the lender I was with pulled out of the mortgage market, and when my initial term ended I was put on to a standard variable rate of 5.25 per cent. I paid that rate for 12 years until it was reduced to 4.7 per cent temporarily due to Covid.

It's been a huge struggle to keep up with the interest payments, which are £3,000 every month. Being on the SVR takes over your life, and this has caused me to have mental health problems.

 

Let me just repeat that- a 28yo took out a 725k liar loan, io only.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/solicitor-roger-allanson-banned-over-23478222

[spunko]

Has this been posted already? Madness.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9488111/Nationwide-lets-time-buyers-borrow-20-lock-mortgage-rate-five-years.html

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Without FTBs theres fuckall market.

Thats what ive been seeing locally since 2004ish.

bear in mind most FTB pos7t 2008 will have been 'helped' by HTB,. For most itll be the first and last house they buy.

 

There is.

It's the swapping equity market that kicks in where prices are beyond local working people without inheriting a house or already having a house which has accumulated considerable unearned equity.

Down in Cornwall I would say that the lower market of FTB, STB, TTB runs to about £250k - £300k depending upon location and the equity swapping upper market kicks in at about £350k - £400k.

The gap between the two is growing which will ultimately be the donwfall of the separate upper market as it cuts off the supply of new buyers except for anyone inheriting enough to buy into it - which will be the only children of existing equity holders.  If you have brothers and sisters then hard luck; a quarter share won't be enough totake you into the upper market.  And a market with fewer people entering it than leaving it is going to crash.

It's not imminent or even close.  It will however crash with the floor being when it falls sufficiently far to reconnect with the lower market.

At present I would say that the gap between the most expensive bought from earnings homes and the cheapest equity-swapper homes is about £100k so that's the current required fall of the upper market for a reconnect: 25%.

I expect that £100k / 25% to continue to increase as furlough and wage suppression keeps down or even reduces prices in the lower market whereas such effects will be tiny upon the equity-swappers.

Forced sales in the upper market are somw way off but given the age demographic of that market they will come.

[CVG]

19 minutes ago, spunko said:

Has this been posted already? Madness.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9488111/Nationwide-lets-time-buyers-borrow-20-lock-mortgage-rate-five-years.html

Yes, but not really. It's very limited because only a small percentage of their loan book is allowed to be risked like this.

[spygirl]

Government shitcan 'mortgage prisoner's support

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9520631/Mortgage-prisoners-frustrated-MPs-shun-law-change.html

Shitcan cladding support

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/28/the-guardian-view-on-the-cladding-scandal-dont-punish-the-innocent

Theres so many gormless people thinking the government is actively propping up the housing market.

Theyll get a shock when ut Dawn's on them they are not.

 

[sancho panza]

30 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Government shitcan 'mortgage prisoner's support

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9520631/Mortgage-prisoners-frustrated-MPs-shun-law-change.html

Shitcan cladding support

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/28/the-guardian-view-on-the-cladding-scandal-dont-punish-the-innocent

Theres so many gormless people thinking the government is actively propping up the housing market.

Theyll get a shock when ut Dawn's on them they are not.

 

I don't understand why they can't jsut sell up and take the profit eg this lady from West London.She'll have plenty of equity after 20 years.

[sleepwello'nights]

On 20/04/2021 at 09:40, Wight Flight said:

The only thing that would help me is if they stopped 'helping' altogether.

 

[macca]

On 14/04/2021 at 15:48, The Idiocrat said:

^ I know that area well. The EA valuations are probably about right at the moment - the market has gone nuts with people moving out of central London and there’s very little stock. In fact as a 4 bed I’m surprised it’s not higher.

2 bed in Kingston went for £700k a few weeks ago down my aunties road.. 

[macca]

On 04/04/2021 at 23:38, Hancock said:

Im expecting a small correction, then prices to stagnate until interest rates rise.

Will need wage rises from here to get prices going up.

Ive been constantly wrong up until this point.

Lifetime mortgages next.. 

Keep the peasants working till they die for 10ks worth of bricks and wood.. 

[Green Devil]

On 04/04/2021 at 23:38, Hancock said:

Im expecting a small correction, then prices to stagnate until interest rates rise.

Will need wage rises from here to get prices going up.

Ive been constantly wrong up until this point.

Have you looked at the property market recently? Its a moon shot. Everything is sold in all price brackets (apart from flats perhaps). I can see prices rising another 20% this year.

[macca]

On 20/04/2021 at 09:46, Harley said:

We're one house price crash away from "you will own nothing and be happy"!

100% inheritance tax to pay for the Covid crisis (All money filtered to Tory friends, family and donors)

[Frank Hovis]

On 02/05/2021 at 19:52, Green Devil said:

Have you looked at the property market recently? Its a moon shot. Everything is sold in all price brackets (apart from flats perhaps). I can see prices rising another 20% this year.

Absolutely; I can't see anything stopping it here (Cornwall) in the short term.

In the longer term the lack of new entrants in the form of FTBs through wage stagnation leaving them unable to buy even if they were desperate to do so will act as a corrective.

[spygirl]

On 02/05/2021 at 19:52, Green Devil said:

Have you looked at the property market recently? Its a moon shot. Everything is sold in all price brackets (apart from flats perhaps). I can see prices rising another 20% this year.

Not really.

Everyone's just taking the BS and spin from EAs without any critical analysis.

https://www.fca.org.uk/data/mortgage-lending-statistics

2020 Q4 stats show money lend up ~10% from 2019 Q2 - dont get excited. Mortgage lending collapsed in 2019 to multi decade lows.

I can understand that there will be a bit of bump of transaction in second half of 20/21 Q1/Q2 - the stamp duty relief is worth a lot of money to expensive houses.

Locally, I see the number of expensive, detached houses double - but again, they were on multi decade lows. before.

Im now seeing a collapse in sales 

Now that could be explained y LAs all skiving.

Or it could be that all the money has gone, 2020 Q4 just bringing forward a couple fo years f sales.

If its the latter youll see sales collapse from Q2.