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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


haroldshand
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Frank Hovis
5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I'm not sure.

Theres few cash buyers.

Most will buy with mortgages.

Bank lending is not going up.

 

 

I don't have any stats but I don't get the impression that that's the case here. It's early retirees and second homers.

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sancho panza
10 hours ago, spunko said:

Yes. According to that article 45% of landlords only own 1 other property though, I was hoping the average would own at least a couple more.

There are regional nuances I suspect

Parliamentary assets publishing service 2018 report

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/775002/EPLS_main_report.pdf

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sancho panza
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, spygirl said:

Well, it is 55% own more than 1.

First the LL has to serve notice.

Then its got to be court enforced. Theres another 18 months to wait.

Covid is going to kill LL.

 

theres a huge backlog in the courts.

reading the above report you realise how potentially screwed msot LL's are when you read the following.

SO exposed to tax increases and the main family home is at risk if they default on the BTL.............

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also massively exposed in terms of a couple of 59% of 1.5 million LL's trying to get through the exit at the same time having levered up sicne 2010

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Edited by sancho panza
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sancho panza
9 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

That's a lot of landlords looking for a new tenant, in a pool of the newly homeless with no references that are also uninsureable.

It is going to be very interesting.

Yet again the meddling has made things worse than just leaving well alone.

the thing is though,if you're facing eviction for partial no payment of rent,you may as well face it for full non payment if you have little moeny.

It's going to be an epic shitshow and I feel sorry for the kids caught up in this mess.

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spygirl
26 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

the thing is though,if you're facing eviction for partial no payment of rent,you may as well face it for full non payment if you have little moeny.

It's going to be an epic shitshow and I feel sorry for the kids caught up in this mess.

My cuz lives in a block of flat in Scarbs.

His original LL went bust and the block was repod by the finance company.

On getting notice of the change of circumstances all tenants except him (he was still on license from prison) stopped paying rent.

Some remained for 12 months, rent free. There was no issue with them finding a new place - one LL bad player is another's 6 months deposit.

Scarbs dislike the anti IOQ - theres a lot of rentals.

However, I expect everywhere else to become more Scarblike, as the EUers kickoff.

Tonight's news reports of families being kicked out is dooming LLs.

 

 

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Yeah, if you’ve had nearly 14 months at 100% pay the shower of lucky shits.

I didn’t. Hence my anger....

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sancho panza
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, spygirl said:

My cuz lives in a block of flat in Scarbs.

His original LL went bust and the block was repod by the finance company.

On getting notice of the change of circumstances all tenants except him (he was still on license from prison) stopped paying rent.

Some remained for 12 months, rent free. There was no issue with them finding a new place - one LL bad player is another's 6 months deposit.

Scarbs dislike the anti IOQ - theres a lot of rentals.

However, I expect everywhere else to become more Scarblike, as the EUers kickoff.

Tonight's news reports of families being kicked out is dooming LLs.

 

 

have we seen much in terms of depopulation with EUers heading home.London is the 5th biggest Frecnh city appranetly.CAn't imagine it;s been better thna france when you stukc in a one bed studio flat 23/7

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spygirl
13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

have we seen much in terms of depopulation with EUers heading home.London is the 5th biggest Frecnh city appranetly.CAn't imagine it;s been better thna france when you stukc in a one bed studio flat 23/7

No, despite the whinging, few if any have gone.

Most EUers seem to have fucked back off for a 12 month holiday using furlough and any benefits.

 

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9 hours ago, spygirl said:

No, despite the whinging, few if any have gone.

Most EUers seem to have fucked back off for a 12 month holiday using furlough and any benefits.

 

The Polish guys who did our patio last summer were doing exactly that except they came back to do cash in hand for our mate. Mini bus out and back as few flights. Double bubble.

They also continued to claim child benefit etc even though the kids were back home with the grandmas.

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gibbon
On 19/05/2021 at 23:44, sancho panza said:

was chatting with a barber the other day-not my hair, and he said he'd had bugger all support from the govt.Some for rent and rates but nothing like he could have earned.

How many million is that that have left the hosuing market?

 

 

Most likely because it's cash in hand he wasn't declaring his income, hence no self employment income support grants as it's calculated on your previous self assessment returns.

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spygirl

UK stamp duty holiday extension prompts rise in mortgage demand

Bank of England data shows rise in mortgage approvals in April, the first monthly increase since November

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/02/uk-stamp-duty-holiday-extension-prompts-rise-in-mortgage-demand

Buy!!!!!!

Threadneedle Street data showed that in April – the month after the chancellor’s budget announcement – the number of mortgage approvals climbed from 83,400 to 86,900, the first monthly increase since November.

Err. Thats a ~5% increase, after ~2 quarters where fuck all mortgages were sold.

Again, Id bet money on the mortgages sold in 2020 being down on 2019. And 2012 mortgages being down on 2020.

 

 

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spygirl

Was this really only a month ago????

Mortgage borrowing reaches record £11.8billion high in a month as housing market is fuelled by stamp duty holiday and low mortgage rates

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9541293/Mortgage-borrowing-reaches-record-11-8billion-high-month.html

 

Buy!!!!!!!! Now!!!!!!!!

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-mortgage-lending-slumps-april-over-stamp-duty-uncertainty-2021-06-02/

Net mortgage lending by British lenders slumped in April to 3.3 billion pounds ($4.7 billion) from a record 11.5 billion pounds the month before, an even sharper drop than the fall to 6.6 billion pounds forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

Pissing around with SD has just brought sales forward.

 

 

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Satch’s London Property Review – An Estate Agent Rights

London property prices are on the rise. Fuelled by ever increasing diversity and multiculturalism, prices are soaring. Each area of London has its own unique attractions and prices to suit all budgets and tastes. Here are three areas you may wish to consider, all are desirable upcoming areas, gentrified as the saying goes, with a wide selection of organic restaurants, trendy coffee bars and local cultural events. Here the program of events, all from last night, in three typical London boroughs and the price range of two-bedroom flats.

Greenwich where machete thugs hacked each other to death in gang fights. Two-bedroom flats cost £250,000 to £1,000,000.

Shepherds Bush is home to the BBC and where knife gangs attacked police and reinforcements needed to be called to deal with the violence. Two-bedroom flats cost £350,000 to £1,500,000

Brixton where police were attacked by a large group of men as they attended a shooting and stabbing. Two-bedroom flats cost £300,000 to £1,000,000.

London is one of the world’s great 24-hour cities, sky-high property prices coupled with third-world gang violence. Twinned with New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Portland.

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spygirl
5 hours ago, satch said:

Satch’s London Property Review – An Estate Agent Rights

 

London property prices are on the rise. Fuelled by ever increasing diversity and multiculturalism, prices are soaring. Each area of London has its own unique attractions and prices to suit all budgets and tastes. Here are three areas you may wish to consider, all are desirable upcoming areas, gentrified as the saying goes, with a wide selection of organic restaurants, trendy coffee bars and local cultural events. Here the program of events, all from last night, in three typical London boroughs and the price range of two-bedroom flats.

Greenwich where machete thugs hacked each other to death in gang fights. Two-bedroom flats cost £250,000 to £1,000,000.

Shepherds Bush is home to the BBC and where knife gangs attacked police and reinforcements needed to be called to deal with the violence. Two-bedroom flats cost £350,000 to £1,500,000

Brixton where police were attacked by a large group of men as they attended a shooting and stabbing. Two-bedroom flats cost £300,000 to £1,000,000.

London is one of the world’s great 24-hour cities, sky-high property prices coupled with third-world gang violence. Twinned with New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Portland.

After the last weeks clips, London is more on par with some Brazilian favavelle  shanty town.

 

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sancho panza

I saw the LA who runs our place today and she was saying prices are bouyant,lots of London money arriving in Leicester.

Data says volume is low.Prob down to lockdown but as we've discussed a lot of self employed/furloughed no longer in the market.

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Hancock
3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

image.png.75d565a167af3cd8971d066a01b4113b.png

One reason for less activity must be because landlords have bought up the stock that used to be frequently traded.

 

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Libspero
On 04/06/2021 at 16:29, sancho panza said:

As prices have risen,so volume has died.

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My little anecdote for the day:

I was speaking to an architect friend last week..  asked him if business must be booming with house prices up..  surely all his commercial clients must be feeling flush and commissioning lots of work,  but, no..  apparently quite the opposite.

He only does commercial work,  and mainly HMO conversions.  He says business is pretty grim at the moment.  Material and labour costs are through the roof (think he said labour was now £250 a day) so work is expensive.   Prices are very high pushed up by residential buyers..  but that just means that the rents no longer make sense, and with the increased cost of conversion,  even less so.   So now, apparently,  professional/commercial property buyers are just sitting on their hands.  
 

Canary in the coal mine?  Or just an indication that things need to cool off?

Answers on a postcard..  I gave up on forecasting the housing market back in 2007 :Passusabeer:

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