Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 639
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Hancock

    105

  • spygirl

    95

  • Frank Hovis

    40

  • sancho panza

    32

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I know everyone on here is clued in to the ridiculous state of UK housing and none of this is news to you lot, but I need to vent... A mate of mine has just exchanged on a new-build (yeah, I know

Should have mentioned that first. What the fuck do people expect, living in fucking Croydon? Its like complaining your foot stinks after deliberately stepping in dog shit.

My mate whose sale of a 125k house fell through for the third time since June was lamenting how he can’t shift his 125k house yet the nice 300k ones in his area seem to go quick mostly to cash buyers.

Posted Images

spygirl

Or putting mad gainzzz in another way using my favourite large regional (to me) town - Scabby,

80-86 tread water. I cant  confirm but Id guess prices barely tracked inflation.

88-91ish - we are going to be millionaires!!!!!

92-2000. Misery, as there was ~30% nominal fall, reducing LTV to well under 3.

2000-2003ish - more than doubled as Browns economic genius and regulation took hold.

2004 - 2020. No change in nominal prices.

Of the period 80-2020, less than 6 saw prices up notable amounts. Admitingly 2000-2003ish they went up a lot.

But each rise was followed longer periods of misery and low transactions. And damaging economic/wok decline as noone could move to get a better job, being stuck with an unsellable (at a price to cover the mortgage) property.

Scabby prices are trading at the same nominal prices 2004. 16 years.

Its not hard to think of a scenario - slightly higher IRs, lower benefits, which could see nominal prices to fall  to where they were in the late 90s, which is where they were in the late 80s

i..e over 30 years with NO NOMINAL CHANGE.

Now take this example of a Northern post mass tourism  seaside town and put the numbers into London/Se, post mass finsec employment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Agree 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
spygirl
On 16/12/2020 at 13:12, Frank Hovis said:

 

Whilst I can't call them to mind there are decent housebuilders of which you have heard but they don't build in volume; their estates tend to be about ten homes and very impressive.   Though priced accordingly.

Persimmon seems to be winning the prize for the shoddiest new builds at present though it is a hotly contested market.

Most people don't use their garage for cars though usually that's because their house is too small in the first place!

A good indicator of quality is the size of the roof beams.  My parent's 1950s house had beams like naval timbers.  My 1970s house and my parents 1970s house both have thick beams but not to the level of that 1950s house.

Everything I have seen going up since the 1980s on seems to have roof timbers like toothpicks in comparison and made from softwoods.

They won't last and in a fire will catch immediately.  The 1950s timbers in contrast would have gently charred.

 

The thing that pisses me off about this sort of penny pinching nikel n diming is that the cost difference between quality of roof beams or whatever material is tiny compared to the transport n labour cost.

  • Agree 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
spygirl
1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Oz is beyond the fucked.

We are lucking at the Nairu being formed before our very eyes.

 

  • Agree 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
JoeDavola

My mate whose sale of a 125k house fell through for the third time since June was lamenting how he can’t shift his 125k house yet the nice 300k ones in his area seem to go quick mostly to cash buyers.

I think what’s at play here is that it’s boomers with tons of cash buying the nice 300k houses which further reinforces the notion that it’s a smaller and smaller percentage of the populace who can afford to actually take part in today’s property market.

A bunch of boomers trying to sell piles of bricks to each other for 5 times what they paid while the young rent a room in one of their BTL’s.

Edited by JoeDavola
  • Agree 11
Link to post
Share on other sites
Frank Hovis
1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

My mate whose sale of a 125k house fell through for the third time since June was lamenting how he can’t shift his 125k house yet the nice 300k ones in his area seem to go quick mostly to cash buyers.

I think what’s at play here is that it’s boomers with tons of cash buying the nice 300k houses which further reinforces the notion that it’s a smaller and smaller percentage of the populace who can afford to actually take part in today’s property market.

A bunch of boomers trying to sell piles of bricks to each other for 5 times what they paid while the young rent a room in one of their BTL’s.

Yes, that's a real life example of what I'm saying up thread.

We have run out of first time buyers.

Those currently private renting now are either doing so because it suits them for their lifestyle (I chose to rent for over twenty years) or because they cannot afford to buy even the cheapest houses and hence those cheap houses are actually falling in value.

The majority of purchases are by those who already have substantial unearned equity but that market is now floating in a disconnected bubble remote from the old reality of a property ladder because the old first time buyers either cannot buy or, if they do, have found for years that they do not accumulate any equity through price rises which would allow them to step up to somewhere bigger.  They're stuck in their starter home.

That disconnect will cause the more expensive houses to crash and burn at some point because there is no throughflow of equity being earned upon lower level houses to reconnect it to the FTB type house.

Ultimately the secondary market will simply run out of buyers as they, and their unearned equity, are getting older and not being replaced.

  • Agree 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
JoeDavola
22 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

The majority of purchases are by those who already have substantial unearned equity but that market is now floating in a disconnected bubble remote from the old reality of a property ladder because the old first time buyers either cannot buy or, if they do, have found for years that they do not accumulate any equity through price rises which would allow them to step up to somewhere bigger.  They're stuck in their starter home.

Yes, every one of my peers, bar this one, has stayed in their starter home that the bought when prices crashed and has no interest in taking on an extra 100K of debt as they approach 40 for the sake of an extra bedroom.

The only thing that will probably drive them to the next point on the ladder, and this is rather morbid, is when our parents start dying and people inherit houses which they sell and then pile the profits into another house.

Regarding 'unearned equity', last week my folks were lamenting their 'life savings' not being enough to buy the kind of bungalow they want and feeling quite sorry for themselves.

Their 'savings' are a £225K house that they paid at most £50K of mortgage debt over the years to own, and £110K in the bank, £60K of which was a public sector redundancy payment on a £30K job 10 years ago, and the rest because they have two public sector pensions and two state pensions that have left them better off than when they were working.

In their mind they scrimped and saved over £300K. If I had pointed out the actual maths pf the situation I'd have been in big trouble so I keep my trap shut :D

Edited by JoeDavola
  • Agree 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
Green Devil
43 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes, every one of my peers, bar this one, has stayed in their starter home that the bought when prices crashed and has no interest in taking on an extra 100K of debt as they approach 40 for the sake of an extra bedroom.

The only thing that will probably drive them to the next point on the ladder, and this is rather morbid, is when our parents start dying and people inherit houses which they sell and then pile the profits into another house.

Regarding 'unearned equity', last week my folks were lamenting their 'life savings' not being enough to buy the kind of bungalow they want and feeling quite sorry for themselves.

Their 'savings' are a £225K house that they paid at most £50K of mortgage debt over the years to own, and £110K in the bank, £60K of which was a public sector redundancy payment on a £30K job 10 years ago, and the rest because they have two public sector pensions and two state pensions that have left them better off than when they were working.

In their mind they scrimped and saved over £300K. If I had pointed out the actual maths pf the situation I'd have been in big trouble so I keep my trap shut :D

@JoeDavola Surely since NI is staying inside the customs union after 1st dec, NI is going to be subject to a crack up boom in house prices. Soon youll be paying london prices for the priviledge of being inside the EU. Buy now of get left behind!

Link to post
Share on other sites
spygirl
2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes, every one of my peers, bar this one, has stayed in their starter home that the bought when prices crashed and has no interest in taking on an extra 100K of debt as they approach 40 for the sake of an extra bedroom.

The only thing that will probably drive them to the next point on the ladder, and this is rather morbid, is when our parents start dying and people inherit houses which they sell and then pile the profits into another house.

Regarding 'unearned equity', last week my folks were lamenting their 'life savings' not being enough to buy the kind of bungalow they want and feeling quite sorry for themselves.

Their 'savings' are a £225K house that they paid at most £50K of mortgage debt over the years to own, and £110K in the bank, £60K of which was a public sector redundancy payment on a £30K job 10 years ago, and the rest because they have two public sector pensions and two state pensions that have left them better off than when they were working.

In their mind they scrimped and saved over £300K. If I had pointed out the actual maths pf the situation I'd have been in big trouble so I keep my trap shut :D

Once people get to 70 they start dropping like flies.

FB posts from school mates are full of .. 

My mam ... My dad died  ...

It's quite an eye opener.

The boomers are going to be fun these smoked like chimneys, drank like fishes, sunbathed like lizards and ate like pigs.

  • Agree 1
  • Lol 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Don Coglione
1 hour ago, spygirl said:

The boomers are going to be fun these smoked like chimneys, drank like fishes, sunbathed like lizards and ate like pigs.

Ah, but what a way to live!

Edited by Knickerless Turgid
  • Cheers 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
spygirl

From a link from another post.

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18947986.salary-needed-buy-bournemouths-cheapest-properties/

The gormless mangling that occurs when stupid regional reporters n crap mortgage advisirs meet up to try and inject some life into the housing market.

One, bmouths average salary is 27k not 35k.

The majority of incomes are well below 22k.

A good 30%-40% dont work.

The '30% of income' is after tax and regular spend, so car finance spending, each householf will get 5k-10k knocked off.

 

 

 

Edited by spygirl
  • Agree 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
spygirl
10 hours ago, spygirl said:

From a link from another post.

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18947986.salary-needed-buy-bournemouths-cheapest-properties/

The gormless mangling that occurs when stupid regional reporters n crap mortgage advisirs meet up to try and inject some life into the housing market.

One, bmouths average salary is 27k not 35k.

The majority of incomes are well below 22k.

A good 30%-40% dont work.

The '30% of income' is after tax and regular spend, so car finance spending, each householf will get 5k-10k knocked off.

 

 

 

This a good example of the simple truth - house prices don trise.

What rises are wages and the amount of credit someone can get from a bank.

Taking a housing position in an area where the under 50s are all on low paid PT work.

The housing market is driven by people aged 25-55.

Once the average home owner hits 60 - and I think we are there now. - the market is pretty much over until the 25-55 start seeing very large wage increases.

People aged 60+ are price takers not price makers.

 

 

 

  • Agree 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 13/12/2020 at 12:57, spygirl said:

I was reminded of this as a 38yo I know announces her first GK today.

(...)

Her oldest (24)

Either you have outdone yourself in having liberal approach to numbers, or your 38yo acquaintance had outdone herself at the grand old age of... 13?

  • Lol 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
spygirl
56 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Either you have outdone yourself in having liberal approach to numbers, or your 38yo acquaintance had outdone herself at the grand old age of... 13?

She was a mum at 14ish.

 

  • Lol 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
reformed nice guy

Helped my brother put in a kitchen last week.

Single mother renting from the landlord. 2 kids aged 12 and 17. Father of the kids absent on paper.... but his audi is parked outside overnight most nights.

Had a chat to the landlord. Turns out the tenant is pregnant - what a surprise! 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 21/12/2020 at 12:35, reformed nice guy said:

Helped my brother put in a kitchen last week.

Single mother renting from the landlord. 2 kids aged 12 and 17. Father of the kids absent on paper.... but his audi is parked outside overnight most nights.

Had a chat to the landlord. Turns out the tenant is pregnant - what a surprise! 

Pretty much de rigueur these days. Mate of mine who is part chad part simp managed to get some old 40 year old stripper up the duff who he had just met off tinder who already had a 20 year old kid when he himself was only early 30s. Obviously she was fucked now the kid was past 18 and the gibs stopped so she needed to find a new donor and reset the gibs clock for another 18 years. 

Obviously she's a cunt as any old slag who's spent god knows how long extracting money from men by flashing her cunt at them. And he now lives a miserable life with her "for the kid".

  • Lol 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
sancho panza
4 hours ago, gibbon said:

Pretty much de rigueur these days. Mate of mine who is part chad part simp managed to get some old 40 year old stripper up the duff who he had just met off tinder who already had a 20 year old kid when he himself was only early 30s. Obviously she was fucked now the kid was past 18 and the gibs stopped so she needed to find a new donor and reset the gibs clock for another 18 years. 

Obviously she's a cunt as any old slag who's spent god knows how long extracting money from men by flashing her cunt at them. And he now lives a miserable life with her "for the kid".

More common story than you realsie.A lass I was at school with had a couple of kids young,then did a degree as youngest was in teens,obviously had sometime getting to see the job market and then pregnant at 38.

I've got no problem helping people through rough patches,but the benefits system is being utterly abused by some.

From the otehr side,single mum lost her job due to covid,struggled on,has always worked,took in her father as he got ill,couldn't get benefits due to savings etc etc.Breaks you seeing these injustices.

  • Agree 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
sancho panza
On 20/12/2020 at 12:46, JoeDavola said:

My mate whose sale of a 125k house fell through for the third time since June was lamenting how he can’t shift his 125k house yet the nice 300k ones in his area seem to go quick mostly to cash buyers.

I think what’s at play here is that it’s boomers with tons of cash buying the nice 300k houses which further reinforces the notion that it’s a smaller and smaller percentage of the populace who can afford to actually take part in today’s property market.

A bunch of boomers trying to sell piles of bricks to each other for 5 times what they paid while the young rent a room in one of their BTL’s.

It's very much an equity swapping market with HTB/FLS/BTL holding up the bottom end.

@spygirl LE2 transactions dropping already where I am.Average price is supposedly £300,000 but on next to no volume which supports @JoeDavolas thesis

Devil is in the details but very few flats/terraces selling .The figures should be the other way round and ususally are ie more terraces/flats selling than detached.

image.png.83b8b63b8dc77b94cfab239944d15a5d.png

image.png.32ea996a106ba8f82625c9bff655d3c3.png

Edited by sancho panza
  • Agree 1
  • Informative 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
sancho panza

 

Aug 2019 to Aug 20 70% drop in volume.It's already happening.Wasn't aware it was this bad.

image.thumb.png.7932500dc6c3d3beefb2d278724a42e8.png

Edited by sancho panza
  • Agree 1
  • Informative 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
spygirl
2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Aug 2019 to Aug 20 70% drop in volume.It's already happening.Wasn't aware it was this bad.

image.thumb.png.7932500dc6c3d3beefb2d278724a42e8.png

Yep. Same.

Zilch Mar - May.

Then a jump back, but still low.

Then off cliff end of summer.

Banks are not lending. Simples.

And they wont lend til they know what state their previous  lending is in I.e 6 months after furlough ends.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
sancho panza

Untill thsi thread I hadn't realsied how hosue prices were spiking higher mainly on the sales mix.Virtualy no flats/terraces selling

LE 3 tells the story of the last 20 years.40% drop Aug 2019 to Aug 2020 but then looking at the 20 year chart you can see when ordinary punters were last truly in the market when 261 houses sold in AUg 2002 for instance

image.png.df77e9693945b5a3758bb44e0f47c3fa.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
sancho panza
8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Yep. Same.

Zilch Mar - May.

Then a jump back, but still low.

Then off cliff end of summer.

Banks are not lending. Simples.

And they wont lend til they know what state their previous  lending is in I.e 6 months after furlough ends.

 

yeah,the main UK banks are more levered than in 2006 according to some eminent economists who aren't drinking the kool aid.

Every man and his dog can see the collapse in hospitality jobs as a minimum,let alone other spheres.Even if people have jobs,incomes going down.

Going to be interesting to see what the late entrants to BTL will do.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   2 members

    • yfwr jin
    • MentalDental

×
×
  • Create New...