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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


haroldshand

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16 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Maybe on more expensive gaffs and they won’t go anywhere near historic avarages.the government needs inflation to erode its debt so which will hit someone the hardest an interest rate rise on a morgage or inflation that will give regular pay rises .what will fuck things up is millions being made unemployed 

Millions are already unemployable. Not through choice, number game. The bennies play a massive role in taking any kind of paying work. It’s the mortgage that gets you out of bed. Not the love of work, or even the rewards that work brings. Perhaps it’s inevitable that inflation will be the ultimate complete socialists wet dream when we all have nothing to get out of bed for, as that in turn will be someone else’s job.
Bit of a ramble.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Millions are already unemployable. Not through choice, number game. The bennies play a massive role in taking any kind of paying work. It’s the mortgage that gets you out of bed. Not the love of work, or even the rewards that work brings. Perhaps it’s inevitable that inflation will be the ultimate complete socialists wet dream when we all have nothing to get out of bed for, as that in turn will be someone else’s job.
Bit of a ramble.

Yes it’s going to be interesting 2009 was not much of a crash IMO I actually lost my job in the 1990 ish one.my advantage is I am used to low paid jobs and don’t over extend myself my sympathy is limited for those with a 300k plus morgage earning 50/75k. Ie morgaged up to the hilt 

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1 minute ago, King Penda said:

Yes it’s going to be interesting 2009 was not much of a crash IMO I actually lost my job in the 1990 ish one.my advantage is I am used to low paid jobs and don’t over extend myself my sympathy is limited for those with a 300k plus morgage earning 50/75k. Ie morgaged up to the hilt 

Agree. Same. Fuck em. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Agree. Same. Fuck em. 

It’s not about fuck them more about useing a bit of common sense people can loose jobs get bad or pregnant etc  never mind the hazard of being divorce raped .I went to work 14 months ago one night innocently then my life went tits up ,totaly out of my control.stuff can happen to any of us we can’t control.when I go back to work will I go balls deep with another morgage of say 80k plus and get what I realy want or just borrow 40k and move to the next rung useing caution ?

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1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Would a Labour government be any different to the one we have other than most of then not being able to string a coherent sentence together whilst lying.

Just realised that if you dyed Angela Rayners hair black she would be just as ugly as Jacinda Ahern whilst probably dribbling even more.

Nah.

I quite fancy Boobs. And shes a goer.

Jacinda is an ugly, skinny munter. And fridgid (prob). 

Edited by spygirl
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11 minutes ago, King Penda said:

It’s not about fuck them more about useing a bit of common sense people can loose jobs get bad or pregnant etc  never mind the hazard of being divorce raped .I went to work 14 months ago one night innocently then my life went tits up ,totaly out of my control.stuff can happen to any of us we can’t control.when I go back to work will I go balls deep with another morgage of say 80k plus and get what I realy want or just borrow 40k and move to the next rung useing caution ?

I always wonder why banks blindly lend the same multiples to higher earners.

In a sane world a higher earner would be looking at a larger deposit rather than a much higher mortgage.

End of the day, you always risk falling to the median local wage.

I also wonder if mortgaged would be lower risk if the lending was tiered -

First 100k  @ BoE base + 1.

Next 100k @ BoE base + 3

Etc...

 

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Chewing Grass
3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I quite fancy Boobs. And shes a goner.

Actually I was thinking of a filthy threesome, bit like a Kebab, a simple search (images) reveals she was a judge at the British Kebab awards.

Her mouth was a bit full in this photo as you can see.

1845323548_Screenshotfrom2021-11-1520-44-25.jpg.31d58d58ce057a6878f080a35bf3a16e.jpg

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1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

Actually I was thinking of a filthy threesome, bit like a Kebab, a simple search (images) reveals she was a judge at the British Kebab awards.

Her mouth was a bit full in this photo as you can see.

1845323548_Screenshotfrom2021-11-1520-44-25.jpg.31d58d58ce057a6878f080a35bf3a16e.jpg

https://britishkebabawards.co.uk/angela-rayner-shadow-secretary-of-state-for-education-and-labour-mp-for-ashton-under-lyne/

Angela Rayner, Shadow Secretary of State for Education and Labour MP for Ashton-under-Lyne

“The kebab industry is an integral part of modern British culture and the night time economy in almost all of our towns and cities.

I congratulate all of the nominees for awards and for the contribution that they make to our economy and society.”

 

Surely that should be award for  - 3-4 bucket cocktails at spoons, kebab n chips, followed sex bent over the bonnet of a car in an alley.

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1 minute ago, spygirl said:

I always wonder why banks blindly lend the same multiples to higher earners.

In a sane world a higher earner would be looking at a larger deposit rather than a much higher mortgage.

End of the day, you always risk falling to the median local wage.

I also wonder if mortgaged would be lower risk if the lending was tiered -

First 100k  @ BoE base + 1.

Next 100k @ BoE base + 3

Etc...

 

The advantage a couple have is 2 can earn the problem ocures when 1 can’t or when 1 wants out of the deal .you see a similar mentality when people are basicly dependant on an inheritance.I got years in front with my little morgage which 9 years ago was still 3 times my yearly income I was shiting myself to start with has I was the only 1 paying it

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4 minutes ago, King Penda said:

The advantage a couple have is 2 can earn the problem ocures when 1 can’t or when 1 wants out of the deal .you see a similar mentality when people are basicly dependant on an inheritance.I got years in front with my little morgage which 9 years ago was still 3 times my yearly income I was shiting myself to start with has I was the only 1 paying it

Indeed.

2 people can clear 24k tax free.

 

 

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First (small) BTL portfolio liquidation in my regular Zoopla search:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/60144757/?search_identifier=ebe1f556483935537c4f4e25b8ccbed6

"The properties are currently tenanted and would suit an investor. Currently 6 properties available, please contact our office for more information or to arrange highly recommended viewing."

The same fixed price plus a single awful photo for each one of six is a bold marketing strategy!

(The above property last sold for £129,950 in 2007)

Edited by Axeman123
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HousePriceMania
1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

First (small) BTL portfolio liquidation in my regular Zoopla search:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/60144757/?search_identifier=ebe1f556483935537c4f4e25b8ccbed6

"The properties are currently tenanted and would suit an investor. Currently 6 properties available, please contact our office for more information or to arrange highly recommended viewing."

The same fixed price plus a single awful photo for each one of six is a bold marketing strategy!

(The above property last sold for £129,950 in 2007) AT WHICH POINT IT SHOULD HAVE FALLEN TO £29,950 WHEN THE BANKS COLLAPSED....

 

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HousePriceMania
On 12/11/2021 at 13:04, sancho panza said:

Looking grim in terms of volume,jsut 12 posted for July so far).Even if we get an uplift as late registrations arrive(normally 70% registered in first three months post transaction but maybe lower now),Still,12 transactions for July looks quite bleak for EA's given there's probably 20 in that postcode.Maybe more.

image.png.ecd64cd8c19437942fdb8931ce05e600.png

I saw this and thought of you...

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/114540629#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

How does that place compare with 18 months ago ?

 

Grace Dieu Road, Whitwick, Leicestershire

 
See map
 
Guide Price
£375,000
Price Change History
17/11/2021 Price changed from £400,000 to £375,000
22/10/2021 Price changed from £425,000 to £400,000
08/10/2021 Initial entry found: £425,000
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HousePriceMania

I've done a mid month run of PropertyLion, I am seeing a lot of drops now and a lot of sales falling through so was interested to see if anything has shifted and it looks like it has....

Despite another all time low number of available listings ( down 2% in 2 weeks ) the asking prices have fallen 1.29% since the start of the month !!!

Regional wise which is more telling:

East Mids: Down -0.86% MOM, Listings up: 15% !!!,  +5.1% YOY 

East England: Down -1.83%MOM, Listings down: -3%, +7.59% YOY 

London: Up 0.74% MOM, Listings down: -4% ( not following what RM says ), + 9% YOY !!!   The only region showing monthly asking price rises.

North East: Down -1.78% MOM, Listings down: -2%, now -0.1% YOY !!!

North West: Down -2.31% MOM, Listings down: -1%, now down -1.65% YOY!!!

Scotland: Down -2.32% MOM, Listings down: -3.4%, now down -0.7% YOY !!!!

South East: Down -1.58 MOM %, Listings down: -4%, stil showing 2.67% YOY increase  

South West: Down -0.72 MOM %, Listings down: -3.3%, stil showing 4.3% YOY increase

Wales: Down -1.2 MOM %, Listings UP: 5%, still showing 6.1 % YOY increase

West Mids: Down -3.1 % MOM, Listings down: 2% !!!,  +1.76 % YOY 

Yorkshire & Humber: Down -1.05% MOM, Listings down: 3% !!!,  +1.26% YOY 

 

With all time low listings it's going to be very interesting over the next few months, we could be starting to see huge instability in the market.

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How do the number of listings compare to 2019? (if you have those stats)

Would have thought high numbers of listings would be more likely to lead to instability as more places competing against each other would lead to selling wars (not the bidding wars we have seen last year).

At least where I am looking, the trends are low numbers of listings and overall less quality  - the good ones are gone quick or sold before marketing. Also think there are some people that wouldn't mind a move but look at the market and there is no choice, so not worth putting their place up.

But some other trends is that some shit things at high prices are being nibbled, maybe because there is nothing else, or those buyers fear the conditions may get worse. Other stuff has just been taken off, maybe those owners don't want viewings around Christmas and will go again next year.

Either way I don't see it as a bad time to kite-fly, because there are not many owners of nice places who are motivated sellers.

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HousePriceMania
23 minutes ago, Boon said:

How do the number of listings compare to 2019? (if you have those stats)

 

 

15/10/18:   Number of listings: 479301

13/10/19: Number of listings: 459195

05/10/20: Number of listings: 439026

22/11/21: Number of listings:  229284

So it's down pretty much 50%.  There was a bit of a steady decline in place before this, the boris bounce turned into the boris bubble.

This number of 229284 from today is the all time low that I've detected and most probably the all time low regardless.  Almost half of those properties listed are in london, SE/SW ( 48% combined ).

And remember, Rightmove used to claim they had 1 million properties for sale !!!

image.png.d5ca60971bd760ba9dfda5134ba87074.png

With volumes having crashed I dare say next year is going to be a very bad year for 2nd hand house salesmen.   

This has serious implications for the banks/building societies too as their very essence is to lend into the house market.  

The question now is, will the collapsing sales volumes bring down the prices too, the banks might need a crash next year to get the market functioning again, now that is a funny thought.

Quote

But some other trends is that some shit things at high prices are being nibbled, maybe because there is nothing else

I think this is right and pretty much the only thing that explains some of the madness I've witnessed, I've seen 2/3 houses that had been sat on the market for months and even years before 2020 sell in the last 6 months.  Not sure why people would suddenly think they were good value so it must be because they are desperate to move and there is nothing else to buy, most likely the buyers are from London and/or the chain is being started by someone form London paying well over the odds. 

The instability and skewing of indexes can only get worse with a lower sample size, so I have to disagree with your statement:

 

Quote

Would have thought high numbers of listings would be more likely to lead to instability 

The whole market is skewed by London.

 

Edited by HousePriceMania
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Unless interest rates rise there isn't going to be a crash, the fact there is sweet FA on the market just adds to there being no crash.

Only good thing is interest rates won't have to rise much for there to be a crash.

 

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HousePriceMania
18 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Unless interest rates rise there isn't going to be a crash, the fact there is sweet FA on the market just adds to there being no crash.

Only good thing is interest rates won't have to rise much for there to be a crash.

 

People keep forgetting.....price rises are the same as interest rate rises.

Model 1:  Low prices + high rates 

Model 2: high prices + low rates.

Inflation could easily act as a catalyst for the people who have over stretched themselves to defauly, all it takes is banks acting like banks this time around and repossessing houses and selling them at real market value to collapse the bubble.  I've reported on Property Lion that listing volumes are at all time lows, we could see the banks needing a crash to get volume lending going again.

Best case scenario for the people at the bottom of the pyramid is a massive surge in wage inflation, without that, they are doomed.

Or, maybe it's different this time and prices will rise forever :Old:

 

image.png.42803913ffa81b3bbc5ce1ac33bc70d2.png

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AlfredTheLittle

Last time everyone stopped buying (start of 2020) it resulted in a mad rush a few months later and prices shooting up even more. That's probably what we'll get again next spring, another 25% on top of current prices.

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33 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Last time everyone stopped buying (start of 2020) it resulted in a mad rush a few months later and prices shooting up even more. That's probably what we'll get again next spring, another 25% on top of current prices.

I’m hoping the beast will be mortally wounded in some way. 

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HousePriceMania
2 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Last time everyone stopped buying (start of 2020) it resulted in a mad rush a few months later and prices shooting up even more. That's probably what we'll get again next spring, another 25% on top of current prices.

Is that with the 5% less disposable people have due to the shit show that is the transitory inflation ?

:Old:

 

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AlfredTheLittle
31 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is that with the 5% less disposable people have due to the shit show that is the transitory inflation ?

:Old:

 

Plenty of money about. People aren't losing their jobs, wages going up, commuting costs down etc

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On 22/11/2021 at 14:39, HousePriceMania said:

 

15/10/18:   Number of listings: 479301

13/10/19: Number of listings: 459195

05/10/20: Number of listings: 439026

22/11/21: Number of listings:  229284

So it's down pretty much 50%.  There was a bit of a steady decline in place before this, the boris bounce turned into the boris bubble.

This number of 229284 from today is the all time low that I've detected and most probably the all time low regardless.  Almost half of those properties listed are in london, SE/SW ( 48% combined ).

And remember, Rightmove used to claim they had 1 million properties for sale !!!

image.png.d5ca60971bd760ba9dfda5134ba87074.png

With volumes having crashed I dare say next year is going to be a very bad year for 2nd hand house salesmen.   

This has serious implications for the banks/building societies too as their very essence is to lend into the house market.  

The question now is, will the collapsing sales volumes bring down the prices too, the banks might need a crash next year to get the market functioning again, now that is a funny thought.

I think this is right and pretty much the only thing that explains some of the madness I've witnessed, I've seen 2/3 houses that had been sat on the market for months and even years before 2020 sell in the last 6 months.  Not sure why people would suddenly think they were good value so it must be because they are desperate to move and there is nothing else to buy, most likely the buyers are from London and/or the chain is being started by someone form London paying well over the odds. 

The instability and skewing of indexes can only get worse with a lower sample size, so I have to disagree with your statement:

 

The whole market is skewed by London.

 

HAs RM suffered becuase it's raised it's charges?Have we seen an uplift on Zoopla?

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