Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[sancho panza]

voluems are low warning but direction of travel seems the same way .These are psotcodes with highest volumes in 2021

some of the down spikes will ease with mroe registrations but ....picture paints etc./

 

 

Edited November 24, 2021 by sancho panza

[Bilbo]

My "village" has approx 2.5k homes approx 6k people. We now have three properties for sale on RM. Up from two yesterday! One flat, one park home and a 1million new home 

[leonardratso]

has that gandalf come to stay again, cheap oap

Edited November 24, 2021 by leonardratso

[HousePriceMania]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

HAs RM suffered becuase it's raised it's charges?Have we seen an uplift on Zoopla?

That's a very good question.

Some french bank staff did a report on the UK housing market by scraping data and they found that Zoopla was about 1/4 the size of rightmove.

I wonder if it's still the same.  Eitherway, I've shorted amazon and will see where we are when their accounts come out early next year.

 

Purple Bricks dropped off a cliff recently, IIRC that was due to the number of listings collapsing, which might point to it being industry wide.  I call it an industry but ass-holes selling houses is nothing like an industry, f**king parasites.

[Boon]

I think Purplebricks are a bit fucked really, a few reasons behind their decline was that there is a new competitor (Strike) that sells it for free - for those wanting to use Purplebricks, why not save even more?

Also they have gone from a model where their agents were self-employed and thus only paid if they did work, to being employed and getting paid no matter what. When activity dives they would save money, it doesn't look the case anymore.

They are also entirely dependent on Rightmove - nobody is gonna use them if their listing cannot appear there. May be in the future that Rightmove discover they can make more money out of individuals directly listing their house rather than going through Purplebricks and charge to encourage this.

 

[spygirl]

On 27/12/2020 at 14:42, spygirl said:

Yep. Same.

Zilch Mar - May.

Then a jump back, but still low.

Then off cliff end of summer.

Banks are not lending. Simples.

And they wont lend til they know what state their previous  lending is in I.e 6 months after furlough ends.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-10233773/House-sales-plummeted-HALF-October-stamp-duty-incentive-taken-away.html

• Housing transactions fell by 52% between September and October, HMRC said
• Year-on-year the drop was 28%, with 77,000 transactions completed
• Home buyers paid £6.4billion less stamp duty during the 'holiday'
• However, the price of a home increased by £28,000 in the same period

[spygirl]

SD holiday brought about 2-3 years of sales forward.

Now theres sod all sales.

Housing market has broken away, leaving on the well off people trading houses.

HP have not gone up, rather the only houses selling are the ones that would have made the top 30% of the market ~20 years ago.

IO BTL has removed the low and mid market homes.

 

[Hancock]

Just done a search on RM for Romsey -  semis, detached and bungalows under £350K.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1140&maxPrice=350000&radius=0.25&propertyTypes=bungalow%2Cdetached%2Csemi-detached&includeSSTC=false&mustHave=&dontShow=&furnishTypes=&keywords=

There is one shit place thats been on since August 2020, at one time there'd be 20/30 for under this price.

I put a link to 3 bed detached bungalow that needed about 30k spending on it that went for £260k last year, i can't believe what that evil and useless socialist cunt Sunak has done, and he is seemingly wanting to be PM.

Hope the cunt gets fucken AIDS and dies.

Edited November 25, 2021 by Hancock

[RJT1979]

Yeah. Where I live only 1 non new build for sale out of 1000 or so houses. It's a bit odd. 

[spygirl]

11 hours ago, spygirl said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-10233773/House-sales-plummeted-HALF-October-stamp-duty-incentive-taken-away.html

• Housing transactions fell by 52% between September and October, HMRC said
• Year-on-year the drop was 28%, with 77,000 transactions completed
• Home buyers paid £6.4billion less stamp duty during the 'holiday'
• However, the price of a home increased by £28,000 in the same period

 

11 hours ago, spygirl said:

SD holiday brought about 2-3 years of sales forward.

Now theres sod all sales.

Housing market has broken away, leaving on the well off people trading houses.

HP have not gone up, rather the only houses selling are the ones that would have made the top 30% of the market ~20 years ago.

IO BTL has removed the low and mid market homes.

 

Well-known estate agency ceases trading blaming online competition

https://propertyindustryeye.com/well-known-estate-agency-ceases-trading-blaming-online-competition/

Andy Blacklock, managing director at Maitlands Estate Agents, told the press that he was “devastated” and “deeply saddened” to have to close the business he founded in 1994.

He commented: “This decision, as you can imagine, has not come lightly. Having formed the original business in 1994, me and my team have grown the business over the years employing nearly 300 staff since its formation.”

Blacklock added: “Our [business] model [has] come under extreme pressure as a traditional estate agent with high street locations, paying not only rents but business rates and employing staff

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

Well-known estate agency ceases trading blaming online competition

https://propertyindustryeye.com/well-known-estate-agency-ceases-trading-blaming-online-competition/

Andy Blacklock, managing director at Maitlands Estate Agents, told the press that he was “devastated” and “deeply saddened” to have to close the business he founded in 1994.

He commented: “This decision, as you can imagine, has not come lightly. Having formed the original business in 1994, me and my team have grown the business over the years employing nearly 300 staff since its formation.”

Blacklock added: “Our [business] model [has] come under extreme pressure as a traditional estate agent with high street locations, paying not only rents but business rates and employing staff

In other words, I made a fortune by being in this business over a never seen before time in human history where financialisation, backed by the government, meant that we couldn't lose as our 1% fee went from a couple of hundred quid to many thousands whilst our fixed costs grew minimally - but now I'm going to cry into my champagne.

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

In other words, I made a fortune by being in this business over a never seen before time in human history where financialisation, backed by the government, meant that we couldn't lose as our 1% fee went from a couple of hundred quid to many thousands whilst our fixed costs grew minimally - but now I'm going to cry into my champagne.

A bit.

I think its more of a case that the business has changed, both in terms of fees and number of properties being sold.

Something that would have make Gyles Purple cord a popular person with the local paper and solicitors now generates barely enough cash to run a Dascia.

I note that local papers, which relied on properdee listing for 50% of ad revenue now barely run a 2 or 3 pages.

Local solicitors, who used to cover their running costs with conveyancing are now consolidating to smaller groups.

I gave a summary at the start - the properdee n mortgage that been around since mass market mortgages i nthe 70s has now gone, and with the dream of properdee wealth.

Unless you seriously down size and move from expensive to cheaper area, its very hard to make money from property. All you find is that the place you move to has also gone up in price. Chuck in high moving costs and youll be very disappointed.

The incredibly low sales rate that I see locally make any attempt at timing now useless.

 

 

 

[GTM]

13 hours ago, Hancock said:

Just done a search on RM for Romsey -  semis, detached and bungalows under £350K.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1140&maxPrice=350000&radius=0.25&propertyTypes=bungalow%2Cdetached%2Csemi-detached&includeSSTC=false&mustHave=&dontShow=&furnishTypes=&keywords=

There is one shit place thats been on since August 2020, at one time there'd be 20/30 for under this price.

I'm looking (well not really) in a similar area and the housing stock is in general complete shit, yet they want all my savings and more for it. But while my dividend income covers my rent I don't have any desperate need to buy any of these shitholes. Luckily I'm not from around here and neither is my wife. So once the kids finish school we don't have anything keeping us here.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, GTM said:

I'm looking (well not really) in a similar area and the housing stock is in general complete shit, yet they want all my savings and more for it. But while my dividend income covers my rent I don't have any desperate need to buy any of these shitholes. Luckily I'm not from around here and neither is my wife. So once the kids finish school we don't have anything keeping us here.

We're the same.Divi's pay the rent.I'd rather own BP and Exxon than property in the UK.Although I'd qualify that yb saying as long as we were renting on a sub 4% or 5% gross yield.The choice and offerings at the bottom of the market round here-Leicester- are overpriced and poor value.

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

Well-known estate agency ceases trading blaming online competition

https://propertyindustryeye.com/well-known-estate-agency-ceases-trading-blaming-online-competition/

Andy Blacklock, managing director at Maitlands Estate Agents, told the press that he was “devastated” and “deeply saddened” to have to close the business he founded in 1994.

He commented: “This decision, as you can imagine, has not come lightly. Having formed the original business in 1994, me and my team have grown the business over the years employing nearly 300 staff since its formation.”

Blacklock added: “Our [business] model [has] come under extreme pressure as a traditional estate agent with high street locations, paying not only rents but business rates and employing staff

LE2 has around 75 transactions a month and about 20 Estate agents trying to eat that pie.What nearly 4 each,average £2000 commission=£8k per month

Bills=per month £3k RM/Zoopla,4 staff £8k,utilities £500,rent and rates £1.5k=circa £13k,

Myust be screwing Landlords now they can't screw tenants.

[sancho panza]

On 24/11/2021 at 21:47, HousePriceMania said:

That's a very good question.

Some french bank staff did a report on the UK housing market by scraping data and they found that Zoopla was about 1/4 the size of rightmove.

I wonder if it's still the same.  Eitherway, I've shorted amazon and will see where we are when their accounts come out early next year.

 

Purple Bricks dropped off a cliff recently, IIRC that was due to the number of listings collapsing, which might point to it being industry wide.  I call it an industry but ass-holes selling houses is nothing like an industry, f**king parasites.

I prefer the zoomed out version

[Hancock]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

In other words, I made a fortune by being in this business over a never seen before time in human history where financialisation, backed by the government, meant that we couldn't lose as our 1% fee went from a couple of hundred quid to many thousands whilst our fixed costs grew minimally - but now I'm going to cry into my champagne.

This is how the UK's been for the last 25 years, where the useless middle class have mad out like bandits.

These people who have made epic sums are too thick to realise its all been on the back of taxpayers money and the financial rape of the country.

They've been gifted a standard of living they are too lazy and incompetent to earn via any other form of labour.

There are literally millions like this .... i do hope it crashes and burns very soon and these people lose their shiny new 4x4s etc...

Edited November 26, 2021 by Hancock

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I prefer the zoomed out version

Can't have your Pi and eat it.

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, GTM said:

I'm looking (well not really) in a similar area and the housing stock is in general complete shit, yet they want all my savings and more for it. But while my dividend income covers my rent I don't have any desperate need to buy any of these shitholes. Luckily I'm not from around here and neither is my wife. So once the kids finish school we don't have anything keeping us here.

20 months ago it was at a stage where you could have held your nose, and just bought knowing you're being ripped off.

 But it's so far beyond that stage now, the only people buying have to be landlords or those who've got lots of property market gains.

£300,000 for a house that is falling down in what is merely suburban Southampton, and if you've been to Soton recently you wouldn't be in a hurry to return such is its resemblance of the 3rd world.

[mh9000]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

20 months ago it was at a stage where you could have held your nose, and just bought knowing you're being ripped off.

 But it's so far beyond that stage now, the only people buying have to be landlords or those who've got lots of property market gains.

£300,000 for a house that is falling down in what is merely suburban Southampton, and if you've been to Soton recently you wouldn't be in a hurry to return such is its resemblance of the 3rd world.

Think holding my nose and accepting it is what I'll have to do just to get on with my life.

At least where I'm looking prices are still ridiculous relative to median local wage but compared to SE or SW I keep seeing on here, pretty sane - although still up about 10% on this time last year.

What gets me is how are these prices worth it for landlords? Yields are sod all so are they just expecting capital gains to continue at the same pace as the last three years? Cunts.

[Hancock]

31 minutes ago, mh9000 said:

Think holding my nose and accepting it is what I'll have to do just to get on with my life.

At least where I'm looking prices are still ridiculous relative to median local wage but compared to SE or SW I keep seeing on here, pretty sane - although still up about 10% on this time last year.

What gets me is how are these prices worth it for landlords? Yields are sod all so are they just expecting capital gains to continue at the same pace as the last three years? Cunts.

If theyve only £30/40/50k to invest then its the leverage that's making them the money. Returns wouldn't be much in a FTSE tracker.

Think owning property makes people feel important, lord of the manor esq, with the dirty renter being their inferior.

 

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Think owning property makes people feel important, lord of the manor esq, with the dirty renter being their inferior.

You can't engineer a car journey with friends/family/colleaugues, point out the window and casually say "see that one with the uPVC porch, that's my rental property" with shares.

[Hancock]

26 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

You can't engineer a car journey with friends/family/colleaugues, point out the window and casually say "see that one with the uPVC porch, that's my rental property" with shares.

And you just know this evening someone somewhere in England has driven their new bit of crumpet out to some overpriced 2 bed terrace to show them their "portfolio", as a way of proving they've made it!

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

And you just know this evening someone somewhere in England has driven their new bit of crumpet out to some overpriced 2 bed terrace to show them their "portfolio", as a way of proving they've made it!

I reckon that would have a very good chance of enabling you to seal the deal, if the tart was assesing you as a provider.

(Hypothetically if you lived in a dump, you could tell the bird it is one of your rentals and the tennant has agreed to an inspection while they are on holiday!)

[Hancock]

48 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I reckon that would have a very good chance of enabling you to seal the deal, if the tart was assesing you as a provider.

Aye a shake of all your portfolios house keys is all it takes to get a girl moist these days!

Moist ... i mean f'en dripping!