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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time


haroldshand
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My suspicion is that there are not enough good jobs. Anecdotally it feels there are quite a lot of vacancies out there but the majority are not sufficient to buy a property, only rent.

If there were loads of high paid easy jobs then, IMO we wouldn't have the situation in London where prices have plateaued for so long.

Doesn't mean that a particular field could be thriving, that has always been the case.

Does seem interesting that recently listings seem to have picked up again (albeit from very low figures). Coming into the first half of next year there will be energy price increases and maybe another interest rate rise.

Many of these properties may simply the ones that have not sold this year but it may be that adding to this will be people squeezed out, but also profit takers, as anyone buying in London pre HTB will have good gains.

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49 minutes ago, Boon said:

My suspicion is that there are not enough good jobs. Anecdotally it feels there are quite a lot of vacancies out there but the majority are not sufficient to buy a property, only rent.

If there were loads of high paid easy jobs then, IMO we wouldn't have the situation in London where prices have plateaued for so long.

Doesn't mean that a particular field could be thriving, that has always been the case.

Does seem interesting that recently listings seem to have picked up again (albeit from very low figures). Coming into the first half of next year there will be energy price increases and maybe another interest rate rise.

Many of these properties may simply the ones that have not sold this year but it may be that adding to this will be people squeezed out, but also profit takers, as anyone buying in London pre HTB will have good gains.

AS far as  I can work out - HTB firehousing aside- majority of London has been falling ~ 5 years.

Not that anyone MSM or selling EAs mention it.

Pryor is a buying agent - and relative honest and open about the market.

Thisis a arare.

With the number of sales per EA office bouncign along multi decades (record?) lows, I wonder how long the current EA model has left.

There isnt enough money to keep the lights on.

Most smalls EAs now seem to be a non paid owenr/operator and a handful of  PT UC wimmin

Fucknows how the chains still do - some gomrless PE funding Id guess.

countrywide-shares-2019-graph.jpg

 

chart.jsproto_large.chart?ID_SEDOL=BCKFY

 

 

 

In simple terms - if HPI was raging and houses flying off the market then these would not be flatlining.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Boon said:

My suspicion is that there are not enough good jobs. Anecdotally it feels there are quite a lot of vacancies out there but the majority are not sufficient to buy a property, only rent.

If there were loads of high paid easy jobs then, IMO we wouldn't have the situation in London where prices have plateaued for so long.

Doesn't mean that a particular field could be thriving, that has always been the case.

Does seem interesting that recently listings seem to have picked up again (albeit from very low figures). Coming into the first half of next year there will be energy price increases and maybe another interest rate rise.

Many of these properties may simply the ones that have not sold this year but it may be that adding to this will be people squeezed out, but also profit takers, as anyone buying in London pre HTB will have good gains.

The skills require to afford to live in London are basically top 5%.

The London average wage is only 2k more than UK national.

Population if London us niw majority non British. Which would be fine, if they were all rich. They are not. Skillless, spotless 3rd world scum.

You cannot sustain jobs in London when it's expensive to travel to, v expensive to live in and populated by 3rd world doley scum.

 

 

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2 hours ago, spygirl said:

AS far as  I can work out - HTB firehousing aside- majority of London has been falling ~ 5 years.

Not that anyone MSM or selling EAs mention it.

Pryor is a buying agent - and relative honest and open about the market.

Thisis a arare.

With the number of sales per EA office bouncign along multi decades (record?) lows, I wonder how long the current EA model has left.

There isnt enough money to keep the lights on.

Most smalls EAs now seem to be a non paid owenr/operator and a handful of  PT UC wimmin

Fucknows how the chains still do - some gomrless PE funding Id guess.

countrywide-shares-2019-graph.jpg

 

chart.jsproto_large.chart?ID_SEDOL=BCKFY

 

 

 

In simple terms - if HPI was raging and houses flying off the market then these would not be flatlining.

 

 

Last chart is Fixtons.

It's possible that the chart shows that what limited sales in London gave mainly been idiots piling into HTB new build.

It's possible that average houses in London will show no increase for 10 years, and London boom has just been on very low transactions and HTB distortions.

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