Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

I have said it before that they just need a central database of rental properties that anyone can check.

just take the DVLA database, change reg. No. to address, MOT to gas safety cert. and mileage to rent charged.

Job done in a morning.

 

Yes, it should be incredibly simple. Just like car reg numbers there are already lists of all residential addresses in the country. Okay you will miss a few beds in sheds, granny flats or undeclared lodgers but it should be pretty straightforward to sort out >95% of undeclared rentals. Make it possible for tenants to be the ones who update the DVLA-style database to say they are renting the property now - after all they are the ones living there.

The Tories are meant to be "the natural party of government" and the UK has a "Rolls Royce civil service". So where is the governance, why are the private rentals where >13 million people live still a Wild West?

Edited June 12, 2022 by Guest

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, Darude said:

While Tony Blair was Prime Minister the proportion of UK housing in the private rented sector went from 10% to 20%, an enormous transfer of capital which seems to rarely be talked about, especially by politicians.

Yes sure, there will always be a role for private rentals e.g. for people just starting out in life or who need flexibility at other times but I don't believe 20% of households fall into those categories. Most people are settled wageslaves, and if they needed to move they could just sell up and buy another place as my parents did multiple times in their lives. There are many people living in the private rented sector who have no desire or need to be there but the exits are being blocked by buy-to-letters who got there first.

If the Conservatives were serious about homeownership they would be trying to move those extra 10% back into the hands of owner occupiers. Get HMRC to find all the landlords and tax half of them out of the game. It shouldn't be that difficult, we're not talking trying to catch drug smugglers or some other hidden crime, these are massive piles of bricks which cannot be hidden. Just set up a dedicated unit, give it one job to find all the non-declaring landlords, and bloody get on with it.

S24.

I can't work out if it was designed by HMRC to destroy io btl, or by gidiot to get new voters.

Bar some of grid sheds, the LR has a record of who owns what property. Just cos you can't see the last price sold doesn't mean they don't have a record.

Try it - pick an obscure property and pay your £5 LR fee.

In terms of rentals theres what, ~30m UK properties, ~6m rentals.

There was no transfer of capital - IO Btl, which is what we are talking out, bought a house with an io mortgage. That's it. Most are 20-25 y mortgages. Majotity 9f these all falling due in the next 5 years.

Any io btl house will have a record of the owner, their NI number and detail, price paid.

All UK banks accounts and people  are easily tracked.

Rent paid by bank tranwfer will be recorded.

Even with Cots compouting resources, HMRC can cross reference every single io btl house and work out money owed.

Before s24 it was possible to leverage to such an extreme level that no tax was due. That's why HMRC *hated* io btl.

LL were still obliged to file a tax return. But if theres no tax due HMRC had to sit on their hands.

S24 changes that. Theres at least 30% of the rent due in tax now.

People seem to think the HMRC and banks operate by writing letters using goose quills. They really don't.

 

 

[spygirl]

On 11/06/2022 at 08:50, marceau said:

If this goes through it's game over for the UK. Anyone on PAYE will not be able to compete with that level of subsidy. Non-PAYE new entrants who would have had the possibility of going on to greater things will be choked out before they have time to grow. Anyone who has any kind of misfortune will be thrown down with no way of getting back up.

Save inside the regular system for 20 years and you'll be taxed to pieces for the whole time and be expected to live on the proceeds down to the 16k capital allowance if you lose your job. Save for 20 years inside the proposed LISA on bennies and you can keep the full amount you've saved regardless of your situation, you can leave and renter the benefits system at will without ever losing the amount in the wrapper. It's a catastrophe and it doesn't look like a single person in govt or media has picked it up yet.

No money allocated.

Banks wont touch the borrowers. Moajotity of banks swerved HTB.

IR are rapidly moving upwards.

Wont happen.

Same speclutive bollocks as 30y fixes - UK does not have capital markets for to match US Fx Mae's.

 

[Inque]

Are these people on fecking coke?

https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-latest-takeaways-and-netflix-blamed-for-young-people-failing-to-get-on-housing-ladder-petrol-price-passes-record-1-85-12615118

Takeaways and Netflix blamed for young people failing to get on housing ladder

A few years ago some argued avocado toast was to blame...

Now a survey has found that almost half of Britons think a key reason more young adults cannot afford their own home is because of their spending on takeaways, coffee, Netflix and holidays abroad. 

The study, by the Policy Institute and Institute of Gerontology at King’s College London, also found that young adults themselves are more likely to agree than disagree that spending on these items is a key reason that they're not on the housing ladder. 

The survey found that 48% of millennials agree with this view, compared with 33% who disagree, with a similar split among Gen Zers (43% vs 33%).

Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,291 adults over three days last month. The results also showed an appreciation for the greater financial hardships young people face today.

Three-quarters (76%) said they thought buying a home is harder for young adults now, with only 11% believing it is easier than it was for their parents' generation.

Arguably they are right - there have been huge increases in house prices and wages have stagnated. 

The typical first-time buyer's house price-to-earnings ratio has almost doubled since the 1990s, and the average first-time buyer deposit has tripled from 5% of the value of the property in 1989 to 15% in 2019, a recent report by the Resolution Foundation found.

And read the post below to see the impact record inflation is having on young people's prospects...

 

Copy link

[Inque]

Your dilemmas: What can recent graduates and young people do to minimise any cost of living impact?

You've been submitting your money saving or cost of living dilemmas for personal finance expert Gemma Godfrey - and the question form is now closed while she tackles some of the hundreds that have come in, including this...

Mark T: I have just taken my first job after my graduation. I make £42k before tax. After paying my London rent and bills, I am left with very little disposable income. What can recent graduates do to minimise any cost of living impact?

Gemma says: Just because you're no longer a student, it doesn't mean you don't qualify for special deals. 

Check out whether your university has an alumni programme and the cost of joining is offset by the discounts you could continue to get on your favourite brands. 

If you regularly travel by train, you might also consider a 16-25 railcard for a significant discount, though some commutes might be excluded. 

There's also the option of saving money (and helping the planet) by recycling clothes. There are retailers that offer rewards and discounts to people who donate unwanted clothing and footwear (some don't mind if the clothes aren't even their brand). 

Budgeting apps can help to identify small but regular spending that you can cut. 

Plus, it could be worth looking into cash-back, voucher sites and signing up to newsletters to get discounts on items you would have bought anyway. Plenty of stores now offer loyalty cards. However, not all loyalty points are equal, especially when it comes to the big supermarket chains. , comparing programmes can help you decide which might be better for you before you commit.

Gemma is a business adviser, finance expert and TV host, an ambassador for the charity Surviving Economic Abuse and a former boardroom adviser to Arnold Schwarzenegger on The Apprentice.

[Boon]

Basically ignored the question.

Fucks sake, there are plenty of other graduates starting in London on less money.

Undoubtedly his lifestyle costs too much. You can live somewhere in the outer zones for around £700 all in. £200 travel, £100 food = £1k basic. With some discipline saving £1k is really doable.

If you choose the rather more aspirational lifestyle, ie inner zone or several nights out per week eating/drinking then it's gonna be considerably more. I wouldn't be surprised if he is renting a 1-bed flat solo which is the worst value out there.
That would tie up his story of having no money after rent and bills. 

I knew a chap like this in the past, it was amazing that the EA rented him the flat TBH. He had to eventually take an evening job in a pub.

[THEFREEMAN]

food is a lot more than £100 a month

[Inque]

 

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, Inque said:

The study, by the Policy Institute and Institute of Gerontology at King’s College London, also found that young adults themselves are more likely to agree than disagree that spending on these items is a key reason that they're not on the housing ladder. 

The survey found that 48% of millennials agree with this view, compared with 33% who disagree, with a similar split among Gen Zers (43% vs 33%).

 

Bloody hell - that's like Stockholm syndrome!!

Tell someone something enough times and they will end up believing it.

 

"The reason you young people can't afford to buy a house is because you waste all of your money on iPhones, takeaways, overpriced coffees, and expensive holidays."

 

"Yes, the reason we young people can't afford to buy a house is because we waste all of our money on iPhones, takeaways, overpriced coffees, and expensive holidays."

[spygirl]

To prevent further  inflation de to weak £, the BoE needs to set rates at least 1% higher than the FED.

Always been the case.

The BoE has never been fully independent; just independent to set rates x% higher than the FED.

 

, assuming 4% as the top  which may be wrong - BoE rates need to go 5%, with the current 2%-3% spread of mortgage rates ....

7%-8%.

Looks like the BoE wont be needing to apply the 6% IR affordability test anymore ...

 

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Inque said:

Are these people on fecking coke?

https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-latest-takeaways-and-netflix-blamed-for-young-people-failing-to-get-on-housing-ladder-petrol-price-passes-record-1-85-12615118

Takeaways and Netflix blamed for young people failing to get on housing ladder

A few years ago some argued avocado toast was to blame...

Now a survey has found that almost half of Britons think a key reason more young adults cannot afford their own home is because of their spending on takeaways, coffee, Netflix and holidays abroad. 

The study, by the Policy Institute and Institute of Gerontology at King’s College London, also found that young adults themselves are more likely to agree than disagree that spending on these items is a key reason that they're not on the housing ladder. 

The survey found that 48% of millennials agree with this view, compared with 33% who disagree, with a similar split among Gen Zers (43% vs 33%).

Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,291 adults over three days last month. The results also showed an appreciation for the greater financial hardships young people face today.

Three-quarters (76%) said they thought buying a home is harder for young adults now, with only 11% believing it is easier than it was for their parents' generation.

Arguably they are right - there have been huge increases in house prices and wages have stagnated. 

The typical first-time buyer's house price-to-earnings ratio has almost doubled since the 1990s, and the average first-time buyer deposit has tripled from 5% of the value of the property in 1989 to 15% in 2019, a recent report by the Resolution Foundation found.

And read the post below to see the impact record inflation is having on young people's prospects...

 

Copy link

Lets just put aside the sheer fuckwitteness of that conclusion.

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/research/institute-of-gerontology

We investigate the challenges of health and social care, as well as the social, economic and policy consequences of ageing populations in both developed and developing worlds. 

Founded in 1986, our Institute leads excellent research and teaching in critical areas for ageing societies and older people, including healthy ageing, long-term care, employment, social participation, age-friendly cities, grandparents, housing and social policy. 

 

[Formerly]

3 hours ago, Inque said:

The typical first-time buyer's house price-to-earnings ratio has almost doubled since the 1990s, and the average first-time buyer deposit has tripled from 5% of the value of the property in 1989 to 15% in 2019, a recent report by the Resolution Foundation found.

 

Err... 15% of twice as much means that the deposits have increased 6-fold relative to earnings.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

 assuming 4% as the top  which may be wrong - BoE rates need to go 5%, with the current 2%-3% spread of mortgage rates ....

 

7%-8%.

Looks like the BoE wont be needing to apply the 6% IR affordability test anymore ...

 

Deutsche forgetting that assumption is the motehr of all fuck ups

[sancho panza]

jsut did a quick check on Leics.

Across whole county 3470 for sale.If youinclude SSTC then it's 9623.Seems very high that last one.Is that normal?

Leicestershire

Edited June 13, 2022 by sancho panza

[Chewing Grass]

8 hours ago, Inque said:

What can recent graduates do to minimise any cost of living impact?

Prostitution.

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

jsut did a quick check on Leics.

Across whole county 3470 for sale.If youinclude SSTC then it's 9623.Seems very high that last one

Leicestershire

Just done my first 3 digit rightmove search and got 162 was 139 2 weeks ago that is a 16% increase, perhaps the effects of the vaxx are kicking in...

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just done my first 3 digit rightmove search and got 162 was 139 2 weeks ago that is a 16% increase, perhaps the effects of the vaxx are kicking in...

I think a lot of things are kicking in.

Covid has deffo removed a chunk of the over 80s.

You can't hold a property position after you're dead.

 

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Bloody hell - that's like Stockholm syndrome!!

Tell someone something enough times and they will end up believing it.

 

"The reason you young people can't afford to buy a house is because you waste all of your money on iPhones, takeaways, overpriced coffees, and expensive holidays."

 

"Yes, the reason we young people can't afford to buy a house is because we waste all of our money on iPhones, takeaways, overpriced coffees, and expensive holidays."

Let's play devils advocate for a bit.

Even putting aside Costa, the under 30s face a flood of professional but now, pay later merchants. And student loans, which will take a 10% of their earnings. PCP cars, etc.

Then there's the whole io btl high rate and paying the cost of high immigration, which mainly falls on young renters.

Having high property prices extends the time before they buy, so open to much temptation.

, Mr n Ms under-35 have had their income fell hammered away, £ by £.

Who's going to buy your house then?

 

I'll be honest, there is some element of tte above, but it pales to insignificant compared to the affect of high rents and student loans.

Then mix in MMR. Computer says fuck off.

Who's going to buy your house then?

 

Then there's half the under 40s living it large in UC. UC destroys the finances of two households- the mother, wholly slob along til the youngest is 18. And fatha, wholly bounce along, avoiding formal work.

That's a good 30%-50% of under 40s wholl never get a utility account never mind a mortgage.

Who's going to buy your house then?

 

 

 

[Frank Hovis]

7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Who's going to buy your house then?

 

Fair enough on the rest of it but the simple answer to that one is the children of existing home owners through BOMAD or inheritance.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Fair enough on the rest of it but the simple answer to that one is the children of existing home owners through BOMAD or inheritance.

When they are well in their 50s then, at the earliest.

Don't work.

Housing market needs lots of 25-45 getting mortgages n buying.

[Frank Hovis]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

When they are well in their 50s then, at the earliest.

Don't work.

Housing market needs lots of 25-45 getting mortgages n buying.

 

It doesn't "need" anything; that's an estate agent's viewpoint.

The current trend can continue with steadily falling owner occupancy.

The idea of non-wealthy people owning their own homes is only one that has held sway for the last seventy years.

Prior to that most working people rented from the (land) lord.

[CVG]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

jsut did a quick check on Leics.

Across whole county 3470 for sale.If youinclude SSTC then it's 9623.Seems very high that last one.Is that normal?

Leicestershire

I've never tracked it so cannot comment, but Sussex is c. 8000 to 24000 so roughly the same ratio. Having said that, I recall my house still on RM as SSTC 6 months after I completed!

[CVG]

Perhaps a more interesting ratio to track is the same for the last 14 days, e.g. how many newly added (reduced) have SSTC in the last 2 weeks. Again, Sussex is 2300 to 2600, so only 12% SSTC. That's been pretty consistent for the last few months.

[Boon]

I do think looking at just listing numbers is informative enough.

Personally I do think much like a fire in a public place not many take notice to start, then a stampede for the exit.

Anyone buying a home within their means with a long-term view should be OK. 

But there are a lot of categories who are not, ie flats, high leverage, over-stretched finance, speculative, 'bought as pension' for whom either 2021 prices look real good (London) or for the rest, cashing in paper gains while they can. 

Large listing numbers I think bring their own selling pressures. For London we are not quite back to pre-pandemic listing numbers (I see it as around c.25% off still) but interesting it has been the highest now for the last couple of years. 

It could go the other way, ie. higher interest rates make people hunker down but one might hope that falling prices could be an excuse for EAs to deploy scare tactics. After all they also don't want people not selling.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Perhaps a more interesting ratio to track is the same for the last 14 days, e.g. how many newly added (reduced) have SSTC in the last 2 weeks. Again, Sussex is 2300 to 2600, so only 12% SSTC. That's been pretty consistent for the last few months.

Before covid, I used to search on new listings with a 14day window.

I can drop that to 2 days now.