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Property price prediction end of 2021?


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haroldshand

I am going for -20% plus.

But in all fairness I have been wrong 3 years in a row now and while I am not just sticking my finger in the air and guessing, I am looking at Brexit and post Covid economical repair job where commonsense and logic says I am right. But that means nothing these days and my prediction is about as good as anyone else's in these mad times where money makes no longer makes  sense anymore.

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spygirl

Where?

I'd guess North wil be off 5%-10%.

Londin/SE pick a number between 10%-30%.

Looking at prices is only half the story.

I expect transactions to be well down.

 

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haroldshand
19 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Where?

I'd guess North wil be off 5%-10%.

Londin/SE pick a number between 10%-30%.

Looking at prices is only half the story.

I expect transactions to be well down.

 

National average

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sancho panza
8 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I am going for -20% plus.

But in all fairness I have been wrong 3 years in a row now and while I am not just sticking my finger in the air and guessing, I am looking at Brexit and post Covid economical repair job where commonsense and logic says I am right. But that means nothing these days and my prediction is about as good as anyone else's in these mad times where money makes no longer makes  sense anymore.

'But in all fairness I have been wrong 3  18 years in a row now and while I am not just sticking my finger in the air and guessing'

I'll go for 10% down,which I went for in 2005/6/7/8/9 etc etc

As @spygirl says be interesting to see the transaction figs down 30% or more

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haroldshand
1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

From what price now in what measure?

However you want, this won't be going to the UK price prediction police 

 

PS .. OK, nominal if you must, anyone else I am not really bothered 

Edited by haroldshand
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spygirl
15 hours ago, haroldshand said:

National average

 

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

'But in all fairness I have been wrong 3  18 years in a row now and while I am not just sticking my finger in the air and guessing'

I'll go for 10% down,which I went for in 2005/6/7/8/9 etc etc

As @spygirl says be interesting to see the transaction figs down 30% or more

Theres no such as thing as a UK housing market.

You need to look at local HPE and the number of BTL/investment property.

In the North, LTE are not hugely off their ~50 year average .

Thats not to say they wont fall - their is just too big an imbalance between OO over ~55 and potential FTBs whove been renting - too many sellers, too few buyers.

Then yuve got London/SE which is nuts and extremely over priced.

Which would not matter, if it wasnt for the continued fall in high paid employment in the finsec, massive fallout of Covid on Lodon investment property.

 

 

 

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Democorruptcy
7 hours ago, haroldshand said:

However you want, this won't be going to the UK price prediction police 

 

PS .. OK, nominal if you must, anyone else I am not really bothered 

I only ask whether it's Halifax, Land Registry etc because I've gambled a lot and bookies tend to try change the rules depending on the outcome. Always read the small print!

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sancho panza
33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Which would not matter, if it wasnt for the continued fall in high paid employment in the finsec, massive fallout of Covid on Lodon investment property.

The problem is that the SE became overly reliant on BTL's working the margins and picking up bargains priced off 2.5% gross yields.

I look at the brokers I use compared to 20 years ago,it's incredible how the margins in retail have got smashed to barely nothing and trade volumes have plunged.Pro side has held up a little better because Pension funds are stil paying over the odds for advice.

Parliamentary paper a few years back laid bare the fact that most BTLers were 55+ and owning in their own names.Structurally that's a market that could drop hard when that smallsubset stops buying and possibly even selling.

Edited by sancho panza
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Up, a little.  Maybe 5 ~ 10%

There isn't a national market, but there is an average house price and we still have a way to go to hit the 2007 Sept peak of an RPI adjusted £ 273,651 (England and wales).  Nov 2020 = England £262,000 / UK £245,000.  But it's getting there.

In post Covid dash to assets world, with a post brexit, make London the tax avoidance, money laundering capital of Europe and whilst China is making Hong Kong uninhabitable for the wealthy, and De Blasio is doing the same to New York.  London property will become even more of a safe haven.  And London property prices haven't been shaped by the domestic market in a long time.    

https://www.propertywire.com/news/uk/number-of-homes-in-prime-central-london-bought-by-overseas-buyers-at-highest-level-for-six-years/#:~:text=International buyers bought 36% of,by a buyer from overseas.

Meanwhile, it also shows that in Greater London the proportion of homes bought by an international buyer also rose to the highest level in six years. International buyers bought 36% of homes in Greater London in the second half of 2018, up from 31% in the same period in 2017. This proportion is 15% higher than in the second half of 2015, before the referendum, when 21% of homes were bought by a buyer from overseas.

Hamptons International says that this rise was also due to an increase in EU buyers in Greater London at 14% in the second half of 2018, up from 8% in the second half of 2017 and 10% in the second half of 2015.

Over the last year the proportion of homes bought by buyers from India increased by 3%, while the number of buyers from Russia and Hong Kong both increased by 1%.

 

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Democorruptcy

Land Registry says they update monthly but last I can see is Nov for Oct

 

Quote

 

Current index

As of October 2020 the average house price in the UK is £245,443, and the index stands at 128.73. Property prices have risen by 0.7% compared to the previous month, and risen by 5.4% compared to the previous year.

About the House Price Index

The UK House Price Index (HPI) uses house sales data from HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland and is calculated by the Office for National Statistics. The index applies a statistical method, called a hedonic regression model, to the various sources of data on property price and attributes to produce estimates of the change in house prices each period.

The index is published monthly, with Northern Ireland figures updated quarterly.

https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi

 

 

 

 

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Democorruptcy

I'll go for Land Registry +6.4% to £261,161 - note this figure is for end Dec 2021 so won't be published until early 2022.

Basis for the figure

1) Public sector is in clover and they keep the market going. NHS in particular will be buying holiday homes and BTLs.

2) House prices are tied to lending and there's plenty.

3) In the March 3rd budget the SDLT holiday will be extended (initially) until Dec 31st 2021, to keep the FOMO up all year.

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spygirl
On 27/12/2020 at 07:50, sancho panza said:

The problem is that the SE became overly reliant on BTL's working the margins and picking up bargains priced off 2.5% gross yields.

I look at the brokers I use compared to 20 years ago,it's incredible how the margins in retail have got smashed to barely nothing and trade volumes have plunged.Pro side has held up a little better because Pension funds are stil paying over the odds for advice.

Parliamentary paper a few years back laid bare the fact that most BTLers were 55+ and owning in their own names.Structurally that's a market that could drop hard when that smallsubset stops buying and possibly even selling.

Indeed. Back in the mid 00s average IO BTL was mid 50s.

These people will be ~70 now.

Bland on TOS provided numbers showing that ~30% of IO BTL had 3+ properties.

The bulk were dipping their toes in. And small buy significant number had gone insanely balls deep.

LR data already shows 1000s of 'we built your portfolio' BTLers exiting Nothern shitholes with ~30k loss per house.

S24 and CGT gets BTLers any which way.

HMRC is going Souther BTLers who, to be frank, were doing OK if they kept a tenant. But at sub 3% gross yields its picking pennies up from the front of steamroller thing.

Imagine carrying ~£500k+ of BTL in London/Se, at 3%, then having the tenant leg it in March.

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Indeed. Back in the mid 00s average IO BTL was mid 50s.

These people will be ~70 now.

Bland on TOS provided numbers showing that ~30% of IO BTL had 3+ properties.

The bulk were dipping their toes in. And small buy significant number had gone insanely balls deep.

LR data already shows 1000s of 'we built your portfolio' BTLers exiting Nothern shitholes with ~30k loss per house.

S24 and CGT gets BTLers any which way.

HMRC is going Souther BTLers who, to be frank, were doing OK if they kept a tenant. But at sub 3% gross yields its picking pennies up from the front of steamroller thing.

Imagine carrying ~£500k+ of BTL in London/Se, at 3%, then having the tenant leg it in March.

Imagine carrying ~£500k+ of BTL in London/Se, at 3%, then having the tenant stop paying rent in March.

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haroldshand
22 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I guess the average house price will be 1 bitcoin.

Yep, good chance of it:)

A lot of talk about western countries now throwing debt at economies post covid and the more they do that the stronger BTC will become.

Maybe?

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Yadda yadda yadda
On 27/12/2020 at 11:48, Wight Flight said:

I guess the average house price will be 1 bitcoin.

Prices to go up that much? Shit.

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