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Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus January 2021 onwards (Part 5)


spunko
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sarahbell

BBC interview with doctor /professor bloke.

Pushing the line: be grateful and hold out your arm.

It'll be fine with statins.

 

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Mental Floss
19 minutes ago, spunko said:

Yes but I was one of those people as I think everyone is, when you have influenza you know: death seems preferable, or perhaps imminent.

I dunno. I got something in my mid 30's that royally fucked me up for at least 10 days. The early days were absolutely horrendous, significant pain, total loss of temperature control (I thought I was freezing to death) and an inability to do pretty much anything beyond exist is constant distress. I reckon if I'd had a "kill me" button I may have pressed it.

Anyway about 6 days in I assume the fever was breaking I managed to drag myself downstairs to lie on the sofa. At this point my febrile mind had gone into some weird overdrive hallucinogenic pattern. In this state I watched Apocalypse Now and it's an experience I've not managed to achieve since. It was awesome. Without drugs I'm not sure I'll ever get that level of immersion again.

So yeah Flu sucks balls but I got a life changer out of it...... 

Edited by Mental Floss
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assetrichcashpoor
18 hours ago, Micky Roberts said:

Case count as of three weeks ago 1,888,447. Fatalities (assumed with virus) as of yesterday 75,431

Hence assuming that anyone who tested positive three weeks ago or longer has either recovered or died then the lowest figure for tested +ve and recovered is 1,813,016. Recovery rate 96%

The actual infection recovery rate will be much higher given the number of asymptomatic / minor cases that don't get tested and the exaggeration of the number of fatalities inherent in the recording of 'died with' within 28 days.

That is what I’m trying to ascertain, the estimated  number of people who were infected back in February/March/April before PCR tests were widely available. At the time only a fraction of those admitted to hospital were tested for covid. 
I’m trying to get an understanding of how many susceptible people there are left prior to the vaccine rollout. My suspicion is that >60% of the population have been exposed. Some have had an anti body response, many haven’t and there are very few susceptible people left. 

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2 minutes ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

That is what I’m trying to ascertain, the estimated  number of people who were infected back in February/March/April before PCR tests were widely available. At the time only a fraction of those admitted to hospital were tested for covid. 
I’m trying to get an understanding of how many susceptible people there are left prior to the vaccine rollout. My suspicion is that >60% of the population have been exposed. Some have had an anti body response, many haven’t and there are very few susceptible people left. 

Apparently the all cause mortality figures up to the end of 2021 are in, and apart from the famous spike are completely unremarkable.

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sarahbell

Indonesia plans to vaccinate the working population first.

 

Frontline medical staff 

Police 

Military.

18-59  years old

 

Edited by sarahbell
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Austin Allegro

I think we've reached that point in the movie where all the zombies have died and the survivors start rebuilding society.

However, our leaders are acting as we're still only 10 minutes into the film and the zombies are rampaging everywhere.

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Caravan Monster

Johnson and Shitty were apparently softening up the population for Lockdown 4 winter '21 / '22  and kids not going back to school in September on last night's video screen announcements:

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/01/06/latest-news-246/#whitty-lockdown-may-still-be-needed-next-winter

Meanwhile look at the indications from the ZOE app in the article.

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sarahbell
Just now, Caravan Monster said:

Johnson and Shitty were apparently softening up the population for Lockdown 4 winter '21 / '22  and kids not going back to school in September on last night's video screen announcements:

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/01/06/latest-news-246/#whitty-lockdown-may-still-be-needed-next-winter

Meanwhile look at the indications from the ZOE app in the article.

Some measures next winter. ... 

Does he mean masks. 2m spacing or lockdown? Who knows. Was s bit odd hearing him be a doom monger though do far in advance.

They've been quite good at the drop drip of near future plans.

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1 minute ago, Caravan Monster said:

Johnson and Shitty were apparently softening up the population for Lockdown 4 winter '21 / '22  and kids not going back to school in September on last night's video screen announcements:

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/01/06/latest-news-246/#whitty-lockdown-may-still-be-needed-next-winter

Meanwhile look at the indications from the ZOE app in the article.

Looking at the standard infection map (PCR/other?) testing thought I saw the wave passing thought Kent subsiding somewhat, mentioned it a day or so ago, that data is about a week old. 

Zoe could  be a much better indicator, note though that as it is a symptom tracker, depending on who is being infected many may not have symptoms if they are younger so not a completely normalised measure -  schools opening and the return university may have had much higher actual increases in infection but still not show up on the Zoe app.

.......

Oddly, the ZOE app showed only around 1% of the population had Covid on January 2nd. Why the discrepancy with the ONS?

What’s more, according to ZOE data new symptomatic cases have been falling in London since the end of last month.

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3 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Some measures next winter. ... 

Does he mean masks. 2m spacing or lockdown? Who knows. Was s bit odd hearing him be a doom monger though do far in advance.

They've been quite good at the drop drip of near future plans.

Prof Graham Medley, a member of Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said "we're in for a long haul" with coronavirus.

He told Today: "Vaccination is a way out, but I think he's right to raise that possibility that there could be - next winter or even the winter after - the possibility that we will see a resurgence of Covid to such an extent that government again has to take measures to prevent another large outbreak."

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Austin Allegro
3 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Some measures next winter. ... 

Does he mean masks. 2m spacing or lockdown? Who knows. Was s bit odd hearing him be a doom monger though do far in advance.

They've been quite good at the drop drip of near future plans.

Van Tam let slip we'd be wearing masks for years to come, during a press conference shortly before Christmas.

Johnson in the background corrected him and later in the interview Van Tam said he meant it would be voluntary.

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Caravan Monster
1 minute ago, sarahbell said:

Some measures next winter. ... 

Does he mean masks. 2m spacing or lockdown? Who knows. Was s bit odd hearing him be a doom monger though do far in advance.

They've been quite good at the drop drip of near future plans.

The way things are going it seems quite optimistic to predict, with any certainty,if or who will be in government by next winter, let alone the trajectory of virus spread and it's effect 10 or 11 months into the future.

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geordie_lurch
30 minutes ago, Mental Floss said:

anyway about 6 days in I assume the fever was breaking I managed to drag myself downstairs to lie on the sofa. At this point my febrile mind had gone into some weird overdrive hallucinogenic pattern. In this state I watched Apocalypse Now and it's an experience I've not managed to achieve since. It was awesome. Without drugs I'm not sure I'll ever get that level of immersion again.

I remember being off school ill as a kid and Watership Down came on the TV whilst I couldn't move and I have never been able to even attempt to watch that again :CryBaby:

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Mirror Mirror
19 hours ago, Mirror Mirror said:

Yes that’s a good point, but I would counter it by saying...

...Of course this doesn’t explain why the opposition are all in favour of it too.

Sorry for quoting myself (why is that frowned on, by the way, if indeed it is?) but it seemed to be the best way to relate my further point to the original.

It occurs to me that the reason the opposition is supporting the government is one of realpolitik.

Given the size of the Tory majority, they would be ridiculed if they spoke out against the governments policies of shutdowns and restrictions. The killing granny arguments would be wheeled out and, while it may be the opposition’s job to oppose the government (clue in the title), the leader is a creature of opportunity and clearly thinks that public opinion and his popularity are better served by sticking to the establishment line, especially in this instance, where the establishment is most of the western world.

As long as the opinion polls show an 80 odd % of people in favour of the dismantling of society and the economy, the Labour Party will be on board. If and when that figure falls to nearer 50%, (unlikely since these days opinion polls are there to shape opinion, not report it), then you might see them doing some actual opposing.

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Bedrag Justesen

Quite odd how TV reporters speaking to camera are repeatedly being heckled by members of the public.

What are the chances of random people seeing a TV crew and being inspired to declare 'COVID is not real' ?

 

17 December 2020

ITV News Carl Dinnen reporting about the event Tobias Ellwood attended which was initially described as a Christmas Party, but on realising it was terribly dangerous, and everybody could have died, they played safe and called it a business meeting instead, so everybody lives to fight another day.

Whilst Mr Dinnen was speaking on camera, two well heeled sorts strolled by, one of them leaned towards the reporter and stated very clearly ' COVID is not real.'

Poor Carl didn't know where to put himself.

 

Edited by Bedrag Justesen
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2 hours ago, assetrichcashpoor said:

I’m trying to get an understanding of how many susceptible people there are left prior to the vaccine rollout. My suspicion is that >60% of the population have been exposed. Some have had an anti body response, many haven’t and there are very few susceptible people left. 

I would love to see equivalent graphs for "died with herpes simplex" and "tested positive for herpes simplex in an environment where everyone hospitalized and the worried well got tested for herpes simplex".

I believe they would be very similar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herpes_simplex

Quote

Worldwide rates of either HSV-1 or HSV-2 are between 60% and 95% in adults.[4] HSV-1 is usually acquired during childhood.[1] Rates of both increase as people age.[4] Rates of HSV-1 are between 70% and 80% in populations of low socioeconomic status and 40% to 60% in populations of improved socioeconomic status.[4] An estimated 536 million people worldwide (16% of the population) were infected with HSV-2 as of 2003 with greater rates among women and those in the developing world.[10] Most people with HSV-2 do not realize that they are infected.[1]

 

 

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Caravan Monster
12 minutes ago, Bedrag Justesen said:

Quite odd how TV reporters speaking to camera are repeatedly being heckled by members of the public.

What are the chances of random people seeing a TV crew and being inspired to declare 'COVID is not real' ?

 

I expect dosbods are in the minority in not taking C4 at face value. Milton Keynes looks like it's fairly busy, but it's with a 150 non covid and 160 with positive test in the adult general and acute beds. When the last nhs report ends on 29 dec there were 29 unoccupied beds which looks to be about 10% of capacity, but the numbers were rising and it could be worse now. 

We're in this  bizarre position where if the polls are to be believed, something like 80% of the population are in favour of lockdowns and covid regulations and it appears to be a conviction based on faith in the narrative. They will break regulations but feel they are 'being bad' rather than making their own risk assessment of the activity. My guess is that the 80% is around half and half between fearful lockdown zealots and those that aren't paying much attention, vaguely believe the narrative and are tired of it but complying for a quiet life. The remaining 20% vary between have identified holes in the official figures to the more extreme end of internet loonery. It's frightening for the 20% to be increasingly vilified and see the police in particular filling the role of state backed lockdown zealots enforcing very damaging regulations based on the fearful demands of the 40%.

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3 hours ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Probably just trying to maintain a small amount of credibility

Yep, WHO decide to go and see the potential source of the outbreak a year after it originally surfaced and long after China has eaten the evidence.

They expect to find the originating species still alive, uneaten, and sat waiting for them to find? xD

China are only still keeping them away as they've already brushed it all under the carpet on the road to changing history as written with 'it didn't originate in China'. Only Trump was prepared to call them out on it and now he's gone (as good as) the rest will toe the line.

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Stunley Andwin

My goodness, look at what President Trump signed yesterday:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announcement-010521/

Quote

H.R. 6435, the “Combating Pandemic Scams Act of 2020,” which requires the Federal Trade Commission to develop and disseminate information to the public regarding scams related to the COVID-19 pandemic; and

 

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PaulParanoia
5 hours ago, Mental Floss said:

That's the Rate the IC have settled on. To be honest I wouldn't be too surprised if it's correct. However, the CFR isn't spread equally across demographics (IC do point this out)

However, what it does do is put Covidat approx 10x more lethal than Flu strains for which a vaccine exists.

Then it's all a matter of whether 10 x Flu is enough to shut down the entire economy for.....................

But is it really 10 x Flu?  We don't test everyone for flu and attribute their death to flu if they die within 28 days.  The trouble with comparing Covid to Flu is that their occurrence is measured in different ways.

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sarahbell
1 minute ago, PaulParanoia said:

But is it really 10 x Flu?  We don't test everyone for flu and attribute their death to flu if they die within 28 days.  The trouble with comparing Covid to Flu is that their occurrence is measured in different ways.

But maybe we should.

Flu is what topples you over the edge .. ?

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7 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

But maybe we should.

Flu is what topples you over the edge .. ?

It's the cough that carries you off!

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Mirror Mirror
13 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

But maybe we should.

Flu is what topples you over the edge .. ?

Using the PCR test? We would find probably double the usual number of cases of flu.

Then we could shut down the economy, dismantle society and imprison the population every year.

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