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Crash coming? or fear mongering to deliberately crash the market?


Snark
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I've been getting into stock market investing over the past few months, starting small, watching the market, learning how everything works, bought shares, sold shares, made about £340 doing that, i've got some long term investments that fluctuate daily, but i'm in those for the dividends and whilst I might consider selling short and buying in again a at a lower price, I'm not too worried about those............ So far so cautious.

What I have noticed is how much influence the media has over the stock market, one paper prints something and a companies stock hits rock bottom, only to bounce right back a week later as a flood of new investors buy in. I'm no doubt that there a very influential people behind these mini crashes on desirable stocks and shares.

Today i'm seeing a lot of "news" about a major crash being imminent and seeing the influence these people have, i'm getting nervous because other people will be getting nervous, which is ultimately how the media can cause a crash.

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I'm no market psychologist, but I wonder if this could provoke more buying as (Conversely) retail investors try to get in and get out before it's too late.  (Not thinking to just buy at the bottom).  FOMO, and all that.  The market could never ever rise again!

Could be bollocks and I'd love someone knowledgeable to tell me either way

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Democorruptcy

Don't believe what you read on the internet it's full of nutters.

Have an argument with yourself in the mirror doing a bit of role playing. One character thinks there will be a crash but the other thinks the markets keep rising. See which one of you wins.

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13 hours ago, Snark said:

I've been getting into stock market investing over the past few months, starting small, watching the market, learning how everything works, bought shares, sold shares, made about £340 doing that, i've got some long term investments that fluctuate daily, but i'm in those for the dividends and whilst I might consider selling short and buying in again a at a lower price, I'm not too worried about those............ So far so cautious.

What I have noticed is how much influence the media has over the stock market, one paper prints something and a companies stock hits rock bottom, only to bounce right back a week later as a flood of new investors buy in. I'm no doubt that there a very influential people behind these mini crashes on desirable stocks and shares.

Today i'm seeing a lot of "news" about a major crash being imminent and seeing the influence these people have, i'm getting nervous because other people will be getting nervous, which is ultimately how the media can cause a crash.

The noise has def shifted in the past few weeks re a crash.  As you say, the media is (mostly) pumping a paid for message.  So who is paying for the fear?

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Frank Hovis
3 hours ago, wherebee said:

The noise has def shifted in the past few weeks re a crash.  As you say, the media is (mostly) pumping a paid for message.  So who is paying for the fear?

There has been an unusual rise in all non-cash assets: shares, gold, property, virtual currencies.

My opinion is that amongst those with some investment knowledge there is now a view that because central banks have to clear huge government debts they will be printing like never before in order to devalue their currencies. This has meant a flight from cash to anything else.

The governments however need someone to buy their bonds, banks need depositors, and both want to only pay a miserly sub-inflation rate of return.

A continued bull run in all investments bar cash and bonds will mean that the supply of willing cash holders dries up as everyone jumps out.

Governments and banks have to frighten people back into cash in order for their financial models of inflating away debt, and therefore also savings, to work.

I've gone up to £50k in premium bonds this year and I'm not the only one as holdings have surged this year through buying by those whose incomes have held up but whose expenses have fallen.

Their rate has now been cut from 1.4% to 1.1%; this is currently above CPIH of 0.9% but I can't see that lasting so I'll be hoiking £20k out to my S&S ISA this year.

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15 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Don't believe what you read on the internet it's full of nutters.

Have an argument with yourself in the mirror doing a bit of role playing. One character thinks there will be a crash but the other thinks the markets keep rising. See which one of you wins.

Tried it and it got heated, now I need a new mirror and I still have no answer.

Thanks a lot.

6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

I'll be hoiking £20k out to my S&S ISA this year.

Exactly what my folks have just done with their PB accounts

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Bitcoin and Tesla are deffo bubbles.

 

a lot of people are saving a lot in commutes and on not going out and are stuck at home with nothing to do so I bet a few will be looking at stonks 

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Jesus Wept
On 10/01/2021 at 13:56, Snark said:

I've been getting into stock market investing over the past few months, starting small, watching the market, learning how everything works, bought shares, sold shares, made about £340 doing that, i've got some long term investments that fluctuate daily, but i'm in those for the dividends and whilst I might consider selling short and buying in again a at a lower price, I'm not too worried about those............ So far so cautious.

What I have noticed is how much influence the media has over the stock market, one paper prints something and a companies stock hits rock bottom, only to bounce right back a week later as a flood of new investors buy in. I'm no doubt that there a very influential people behind these mini crashes on desirable stocks and shares...... # snip #

I’ll post what I posted on the inflation / deflation @DurhamBornmain thread...... I don’t think many people read it. I got more upticks for a picture of a loaf of sourdough I posted on the same thread.....  😂

Anyways.... my thoughts......

What I now see this year in terms of Stockmarket performance is a little pull back  (10-15%) from where we are now (6800) maybe to 6000pts. Maybe 5800. 

There are trillions and trillions of dollars in liquidity pushing through the pipes and more to come. Biden just signed off another $1.9 TRILLION.

Government are (rightly) borrowing hugely at the lowest long term IR’s ever,  over really long time frame (50years) and will be investing massively in infrastructure (in ‘deprived areas’ like the NE). They are also QEing like never before. Not just U.K. and USA buy all the big economies and EU.

All this money printing, borrowing of money and ‘malinvestment’  and the end of covid, may result in a wall of money becoming a surge in inflation throughout the 2020’s. Not just in U.K. but US etc. 

The consumer has built up ‘relatively’ large savings since March last year. Record amounts of personal debt has been paid off. When they get released again there will be no stopping them. Like a greyhound whose been caged all weekend and is released on the track..

Global Inflation will be exacerbated by China ..... who are no longer exporting deflation. Inflation, starting late 21 or 22 - will be hitting double figures by 2025-27.

Inflation is notoriously bad for most stocks. I’ll be protecting myself  from inflation with companies at the base of the supply chain. Big oils, potash, telecoms, tobacco and miners plus commodities and commodity tracker. Gold and Silver will surge.

Governments will have to tighten IRs - they will have no choice -  and this will eventually result in stagflation, and possibly a massive monetary collapse and potential collapse of the financial system.

Physical gold and silver (and housing assets) might offer the only protection.  I also see an oil supply squeeze early on this decade, late 2021 or early 2022 which will also kickstart inflation. 
 

However alternatively I can easily see the NASDAQ collapse 30-50% or more within 6 months or earlier of today’s date. Tesla will be the ‘pin’. Ftse could as a result hit 5500 in the fallout, but it will be a short lived fall. It will benefit certain non service, and non-tech stocks long term. 
 

This Nasdaq fall will just result in more and more fed stimulus $Trillions and $Trillions. Other major governments will be doing the same. This liquidity will get into the pipes and just keep pushing up assset prices and destroy the currency. They will have no choice but to just keep printing.


Bottom line is I am not too bothered by short term (12 months) ‘mini crashes’, ultimately my theory is that we are well on the way to having a ‘crack up boom’. Oil will be over $100 per barrel within 18 months possibly earlier. Well into the decade Silver could hit $150/oz (and Gold $7000/oz).


Most of this has been absorbed from reading the inflation/deflation @DurhamBornthread too much. 

Edited by Vendetta
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goldbug9999
On 16/01/2021 at 08:24, Vendetta said:

There are trillions and trillions of dollars in liquidity pushing through the pipes and more to come. Biden just signed off another $1.9 TRILLION.

...

All this money printing, borrowing of money and ‘malinvestment’  and the end of covid, may result in a wall of money becoming a surge in inflation throughout the 2020’s. Not just in U.K. but US etc. 

Inflation is notoriously bad for most stocks.

...

However alternatively I can easily see the NASDAQ collapse 30-50% or more within 6 months or earlier of today’s date. Tesla will be the ‘pin’. Ftse could as a result hit 5500 in the fallout, but it will be a short lived fall. It will benefit certain non service, and non-tech stocks long term. 

I'm not seeing how printing of trillions of $ leads to a tech stock collapse ? so far it seems to be where much of the money is flowing to. Why is this going to change ?

Also some commentators are speculating that the FED will start directly buying stocks.

Sorry if my question is overly simplifying things.

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Jesus Wept
1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

I'm not seeing how printing of trillions of $ leads to a tech stock collapse ? so far it seems to be where much of the money is flowing to. Why is this going to change ?

Also some commentators are speculating that the FED will start directly buying stocks.

Sorry if my question is overly simplifying things.

Trillions account for only so much growth in TESLA.... the rest is speculation....hubris..... and a bubble.....

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goldbug9999
29 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Trillions account for only so much growth in TESLA.... the rest is speculation....hubris..... and a bubble.....

But its price is a function of the amount of money trying exit fiat, nothing to do with the potential of the company, Tesla is just the main beneficiary because its "cool" but the same applies to a lesser extent to the whole stock market. Given this thesis (which you presumably dont agree with) there is no reason for the prices to fall with all the new money coming in to chase it.

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Jesus Wept
3 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

But its price is a function of the amount of money trying exit fiat, nothing to do with the potential of the company, Tesla is just the main beneficiary because its "cool" but the same applies to a lesser extent to the whole stock market. Given this thesis (which you presumably dont agree with) there is no reason for the prices to fall with all the new money coming in to chase it.

That new newly printer money will eventually find a better home away from the TESLA bubble - other assets. Hence Tesla will crash. Doesn’t matter how much money is printed it will just move around the system causing bubbles and crashes. 

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goldbug9999
On 18/01/2021 at 17:23, Vendetta said:

That new newly printer money will eventually find a better home away from the TESLA bubble - other assets. Hence Tesla will crash. Doesn’t matter how much money is printed it will just move around the system causing bubbles and crashes. 

We will see I guess, right now I don't have a dog in this fight as I'm in UK equities / gold / silver / bitcoin.

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  • 2 weeks later...
crashmonitor

I reckon we are looking forward to a precarious Market next week here in the UK. Big Q4 results out from GSK ( dividend at risk see link) and RDSB  and we appear to be apeing the S and P irrespective of the fact their values are in lala land and ours are in tatters. Three year total return on the 100 from 29th January 2018 to 29th January 2021 of minus 6% ( 6125/ 6509) whilst the S and P has launched into the stratosphere during the same period.

I have recently switched to an FTSE tracker policy so it could go badly wrong. Probably need to keep the faith if the panic extends....RDSB, GSK, BAT, RIO and Unilever. 5 different sectors, yielding 5.2%, covering approx. one quarter ( or nearly half a trillion) of entire UK Market capitalisation.

 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/investors-fear-bumper-payout-from-drugs-giant-is-under-threat-lh8mhnkc5

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23 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

GSK

by supporting those drug behemoth cunts you might just have cost more UK jobs and perhaps even those of @DurhamBornmates in the north east? :o what happened to all the jobs coming back post Brexit? :P

https://endpts.com/glaxosmithkline-moves-malaria-vaccine-production-to-india-nevakar-bags-european-partner-and-nine-figure-deal/

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DurhamBorn
11 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

by supporting those drug behemoth cunts you might just have cost more UK jobs and perhaps even those of @DurhamBornmates in the north east? :o what happened to all the jobs coming back post Brexit? :P

https://endpts.com/glaxosmithkline-moves-malaria-vaccine-production-to-india-nevakar-bags-european-partner-and-nine-figure-deal/

Its the adjuvant they make at Barnard Castle where i worked.They have been putting extra lines in for that last year and they have taken on a lot of new permanent employees for that bit and also all liquids.FujiFilm is also exanding over in Billingham,they are doing very well.Chemical and pharma is doing nicely up here at the moment.

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Chewing Grass
16 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

by supporting those drug behemoth cunts you might just have cost more UK jobs and perhaps even those of @DurhamBornmates in the north east? :o what happened to all the jobs coming back post Brexit? :P

https://endpts.com/glaxosmithkline-moves-malaria-vaccine-production-to-india-nevakar-bags-european-partner-and-nine-figure-deal/

That has just reminded me of British Rails rush for diesel where they replaced every steam locomotive on the network in a grand 5 year plan. Loads of orders went to existing British manufacturers who were swamped, the good times rolled and there was no need to bother with troublesome export orders just knock them up and roll them straight out of the doors onto the rails. 5 years later the orders start to dry up as the GEC vulture circles and one by one the jobs and the companies fold.

Easy money makes bad long term business decisions, pumping vaccines out is easy money.

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3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

British Rails

don't get me started on BR - I worked for one of the private companies post breakup as a contractor, made a fortune....know a guy who made at least a million too buying some old train stock with some mates and doing 'mainline upgrades'

The rail network in Europe has been streets ahead of the UK for decades cos they electrified it a long time ago.....

TGV anyone? Europes Elon Musk at 574,8kmh!!! :D

 

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Democorruptcy
On 30/01/2021 at 10:49, crashmonitor said:

I reckon we are looking forward to a precarious Market next week here in the UK. Big Q4 results out from GSK ( dividend at risk see link) and RDSB  and we appear to be apeing the S and P irrespective of the fact their values are in lala land and ours are in tatters. Three year total return on the 100 from 29th January 2018 to 29th January 2021 of minus 6% ( 6125/ 6509) whilst the S and P has launched into the stratosphere during the same period.

I have recently switched to an FTSE tracker policy so it could go badly wrong. Probably need to keep the faith if the panic extends....RDSB, GSK, BAT, RIO and Unilever. 5 different sectors, yielding 5.2%, covering approx. one quarter ( or nearly half a trillion) of entire UK Market capitalisation.

 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/investors-fear-bumper-payout-from-drugs-giant-is-under-threat-lh8mhnkc5

RDSB is 4th quarter results and dividend on Thursday but BP might be a clue as they are reporting on Tuesday

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Democorruptcy
On 30/01/2021 at 10:49, crashmonitor said:

I reckon we are looking forward to a precarious Market next week here in the UK. Big Q4 results out from GSK ( dividend at risk see link) and RDSB  and we appear to be apeing the S and P irrespective of the fact their values are in lala land and ours are in tatters. Three year total return on the 100 from 29th January 2018 to 29th January 2021 of minus 6% ( 6125/ 6509) whilst the S and P has launched into the stratosphere during the same period.

I have recently switched to an FTSE tracker policy so it could go badly wrong. Probably need to keep the faith if the panic extends....RDSB, GSK, BAT, RIO and Unilever. 5 different sectors, yielding 5.2%, covering approx. one quarter ( or nearly half a trillion) of entire UK Market capitalisation.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/investors-fear-bumper-payout-from-drugs-giant-is-under-threat-lh8mhnkc5

It is a busy week. IG weekly round up didn't mention GSK but we know it's the 3rd. Others include some that might re-instate dividends e.g. BT and RMG.

Quote

On the corporate front, earnings come through from a variety of sectors, including Alphabet and Amazon, BP, Shell, Exxon and ConocoPhillips, plus Unilever, BT, Vodafone and Royal Mail

https://www.ig.com/uk/week-ahead-ig?

 

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