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Kent Variant- More deadly and more transmissible


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  • sarahbell

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  • tlc

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  • Chewing Grass

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This new variant tells me that the behavioural psychologists at SAGE are fearful that they maybe losing the compliance of the general public.

Both coronavirus mortality and susceptibility (and hence transmissibility) are inversely proportional to vitamin D level.  As vitamin D levels fall in the winter and a larger fraction of the populatio

This is 'bad' interpretation of the data -- they've got some data, found a result (okay so far) and then chosen 'new variant' as the reason (not the only interpretation, and the data goes against this

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Chewing Grass

This Kent Variant is TV smashing stuff when everyone knows its filthy Londoners.

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Green Devil

Its not really surprising, if the virus is much more transmissible, has a far greater viral load, it has less reliance on the host to replicate.

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Green Devil

BBC is going with 50%

Risk of death from UK variant may by up to 50% higher - scientist

Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be up to 50% more deadly, according to the scientist whose research led to today’s government announcement.

Nick Davies, assistant professor of mathematical modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme the estimate that the risk of death increased by 30% was "uncertain".

"We think it could be anywhere between 10 to 50%, according to our analysis,” he said.

Mr Davies – a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which feeds into the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) – said it would be very important to get a variety of different streams of evidence, looking at the problem in different ways.

However, he added that “a number of groups have looked at the data in a number of different ways, and unfortunately come to similar conclusions”.

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sarahbell
Just now, tlc said:

We've no chance! Might as well...

#Moderates threaten to trigger by-elections. Oh do. Please ...

I'm staying put until we're out of supplies

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tlc
1 minute ago, sarahbell said:

I'm staying put until we're out of supplies

Your only delaying the inevitable. xD

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eight
12 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

I guess that’s why they shut the schools?

Schools aren't shut.

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sarahbell
Just now, tlc said:

Your only delaying the inevitable. xD

I've got a box of freddos.im good for a week.

Just now, eight said:

Schools aren't shut.

They're shut for taxpayers.

(Ignoring tax payers who are paid by the public purse)

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Chewing Grass
Just now, sarahbell said:

I've got a box of freddos.im good for a week.

Excellent, you are 'treat wise', little and often.

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tlc
3 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

I've got a box of freddos.im good for a week.

but but but the next mutation is gonna do this

Top Five: Zombie Films | Cultjer

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sarahbell
2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Excellent, you are 'treat wise', little and often.

I am quite restrained with chocolate. 

 

1 minute ago, tlc said:

but but but the next mutation is gonna do this

Top Five: Zombie Films | Cultjer

That's fine. I've got the zombie survival guide upstairs

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tlc
5 minutes ago, eight said:

Schools aren't shut.

True my teens been in school since the return after Christmas.

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Van Lady
31 minutes ago, tlc said:

I don’t think the Covid original is deadly for the majority of healthy people.

Anyway the virus can’t be stopped so better to just get on with life as best one can.

If healthy folk want to stay at home that’s fine by me but I won’t be. It’s fair to help the vulnerable to isolate if they chose to but many wouldn’t in my opinion. 
 

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tlc
1 minute ago, Van Lady said:

I don’t think the Covid original is deadly for the majority of healthy people.

Anyway the virus can’t be stopped so better to just get on with life as best one can.

If healthy folk want to stay at home that’s fine by me but I won’t be. It’s fair to help the vulnerable to isolate if they chose to but many wouldn’t in my opinion. 
 

My 86yo survived it as did my brother in his 60's and thats without preparing with immune system support, losing weight, healthy eating etc

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choochoo

The new variant is 30-40% more deadly!!”

Makes for good headlines but v important to say that percentage changes are often misleading. 

Better to look at the actual numbers themselves. 

A 40% increase will mean death rate increases from 1 in 1000 to 1.4 in 1000.

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ElKapitan84

In the name of Christ, how is it that the Telegraph has the stones to ask people to pay money to read their articles?

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sarahbell
Just now, ElKapitan84 said:

In the name of Christ, how is it that the Telegraph has the stones to ask people to pay money to read their articles?

Hit escape as the page loads

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stokiescum
43 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

We're dooooooooomed

Greta will be flicking her bean over this all night

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ElKapitan84
3 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Hit escape as the page loads

There must be a truckload of boomers subscribing to their shite.

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