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Kent Variant- More deadly and more transmissible


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This new variant tells me that the behavioural psychologists at SAGE are fearful that they maybe losing the compliance of the general public.

Both coronavirus mortality and susceptibility (and hence transmissibility) are inversely proportional to vitamin D level.  As vitamin D levels fall in the winter and a larger fraction of the populatio

This is 'bad' interpretation of the data -- they've got some data, found a result (okay so far) and then chosen 'new variant' as the reason (not the only interpretation, and the data goes against this

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BBC is going with 50%

Risk of death from UK variant may by up to 50% higher - scientist

Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be up to 50% more deadly, according to the scientist whose research led to today’s government announcement.

Nick Davies, assistant professor of mathematical modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme the estimate that the risk of death increased by 30% was "uncertain".

"We think it could be anywhere between 10 to 50%, according to our analysis,” he said.

Mr Davies – a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which feeds into the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) – said it would be very important to get a variety of different streams of evidence, looking at the problem in different ways.

However, he added that “a number of groups have looked at the data in a number of different ways, and unfortunately come to similar conclusions”.

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31 minutes ago, tlc said:

I don’t think the Covid original is deadly for the majority of healthy people.

Anyway the virus can’t be stopped so better to just get on with life as best one can.

If healthy folk want to stay at home that’s fine by me but I won’t be. It’s fair to help the vulnerable to isolate if they chose to but many wouldn’t in my opinion. 
 

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1 minute ago, Van Lady said:

I don’t think the Covid original is deadly for the majority of healthy people.

Anyway the virus can’t be stopped so better to just get on with life as best one can.

If healthy folk want to stay at home that’s fine by me but I won’t be. It’s fair to help the vulnerable to isolate if they chose to but many wouldn’t in my opinion. 
 

My 86yo survived it as did my brother in his 60's and thats without preparing with immune system support, losing weight, healthy eating etc

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