How long before life becomes 'solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short'

[AsiaRanger 168]

Fucked this poll right up but basically I would like to hear the thoughts on Dosbods on how long we think we have before societal collapse as a result of infinite state debt and the infinite printing of money to cover it. After having had a quick flick through the book Spunko posted - LIFE WITHOUT POLITICIANS: PRESERVING FREEDOM AFTER THE STATE COLLAPSES as well as having  read a couple of articles on nationalist movements preparing for just that it got me thinking. 

Edited February 3 by AsiaRanger

[Jonty Willis the Third 295]

I reckon the massive cost of this pandemic will be covered by further mass borrowing from our esteemed representatives. So worried about losing votes over a mass depression/societal collapse, our spinless cunt leaders will instead get China to fund this borrowing splurge (if they haven't done so already).

All well and good until payback is required, upon which China will effectively take over the west, with the dystopian social credit system being pushed on the masses by our now puppet leaders, any attempt at unrest will be crushed, reeducation camps etc.

Less Mad Max, more an Orwellian cheese nightmare. But maybe I'm being overly pessimistic.

 

[The XYY Man 24,406]

Depends on whether the oil runs out next week, or lasts a bit longer...

 

XYY

[MrPin 20,569]

8 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

Depends on whether the oil runs out next week, or lasts a bit longer...

 

XYY

I haven't filled up since October, so don't blame me.

[Yadda yadda yadda 3,064]

9 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

Depends on whether the oil runs out next week, or lasts a bit longer...

 

XYY

Oil will run out slowly at first and then all at once.

[JohnnyB 1,026]

solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short

 

Disagree. It's going the other way

Collective - mandatory 2hr daily BLM discussion groups. Lose 10 social credits if you miss or judged to not contribute positively enough

Poor - only for the undeserving (single childless non-BME). Everyone else gets increasing state payments, especially mothers of starving fat kids.

Long & dull - full lockdowns every 5 years when new diseases emerge which have a 0.001% threat to healthy people. Extreme sports banned to avoid pressure on NHS. Hiking classed as extreme sport. 

[Frank Hovis 46,448]

30 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Oil will run out slowly at first and then all at once.

And the slowly starts c. 2030 with Saudi.

Then you have above inflationary rises every year for energy and food until what you took for granted becomes unaffordable.  Meat free Mondays?  How about meat free months?  Car - forget it as you can forget owning a house now if you are low paid.  All your money is now going on keeping you alive.

Inexorably we get to this and then revolution becomes inevitable.

 

Many unskilled laborers toiled from 12 to 15 hours per day when they had work, living in squalid, disease-ridden slums. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848

 

I vote 10 - 20 and think the fiscal reasons irrelevant; it's when basic human needs become unaffordable to full time low paid workers that the SHTF.

[86d 198]

5 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

And the slowly starts c. 2030 with Saudi.

Then you have above inflationary rises every year for energy and food until what you took for granted becomes unaffordable.  Meat free Mondays?  How about meat free months?  Car - forget it as you can forget owning a house now if you are low paid.  All your money is now going on keeping you alive.

Inexorably we get to this and then revolution becomes inevitable.

 

Many unskilled laborers toiled from 12 to 15 hours per day when they had work, living in squalid, disease-ridden slums. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848

 

I vote 10 - 20 and think the fiscal reasons irrelevant; it's when basic human needs become unaffordable to full time low paid workers that the SHTF.

Agreed.

If that don’t get us, the projected population increase in Africa will.

and all them farmer boys want their 4x4 and MTV. Does not compute. 
 

also can’t help but wonder want china

has in store for the likes of us. That 100 years of shame along with what japan got up to in the period upto 2nd world war has not been forgotten.

i had Chinese friends in Singapore who when drunk would rant and rave. One night he showed me the map of the world and pointed to Japan and China “ one day the chicken (China) will get to feast on this worm (japan).  every time I look at he globe I remember it. They won’t weave stories or cook sexed up dossiers if they want something. They just take it.

[Hopeful 24,811]

1 hour ago, AsiaRanger said:

Fucked this poll right up but basically I would like to hear the thoughts on Dosbods on how long we think we have before societal collapse as a result of infinite state debt and the infinite printing of money to cover it. After having had a quick flick through the book Spunko posted - LIFE WITHOUT POLITICIANS: PRESERVING FREEDOM AFTER THE STATE COLLAPSES as well as having  read a couple of articles on nationalist movements preparing for just that it got me thinking. 

 

For me, societal collapse happened a while ago. It coincided with people deciding to show that they'd made it in life by paying £30 for a meal that consisted of a sprout, half a carrot, a drop of jus and a slither of meat on a plate and going home to their £500K Taylor-Wimpey new build where they'd paid the builder £1000 extra a room to have downlighters installed.

But I know most people would think it's all still hunky dory, relatively

Edited February 3 by Hopeful

[MrLibertyRedux 6,116]

6 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

 

For me, societal collapse happened a while ago. It coincided with when people decided to show that they'd made it in life they'd pay £30 for a meal that consisted of a sprout, half a carrot, a drop of jus and a slither of meat on a plate and paying £1000 a room extra to have downlighters in they £500K Taylor Wimpey new build.

But I know most people would think it's all still hunky dory, relatively

The begining of the end for me was when I saw one of those card board cut out coppers they put in shops at my local co-op.

To this day, I can't believe I didn't walk out with it, take it home and recreate the torture scene from Reservoir Dogs and post the video online.

[leonardratso 4,336]

.

Edited February 3 by leonardratso

[dgul 21,039]

I had friends in post Soviet Armenia.  ('had' in 'not seen them for years' -- I hope they're okay).  They were medics and mathematicians (a strange combination, but there you are), and were fairly well off in the country.

• They were wealthy and secure (in many respects the population provided a decent %age of the 'brains' of the USSR)
• Then there was a bit of trouble in the Polish dockyards.  And they were fine.
• And the Berlin Wall fell.  And they were fine.
• And then there was some clamouring for independence from the Soviet states, including Armenia, but they were fine.
• And then on day it all collapsed into petty rivalries and economic mayhem, fuelled by neighbouring territories and historic arguments that had been suppressed by the USSR (to a certain extent).  And they lost everything.

It's the way these things happen -- slowly at first, and then all at once.

 

[Sasquatch 2,574]

Resource wars I reckon at some point. There will be lots of sabre rattling through this decade. 

I think the real SHTF will be 2030 onwards.

My most important responsibility is to get my children on message without scaring them too much. 

Even Mrs S is now reading doomer books. If there was ever a sign that we're in for some trouble then that's it.

[Chewing Grass 23,335]

The beginning of the end for me was when I was stood in front of my mates house and we were looking at the houses opposite, I knew a number of people who lived in them (3 bed semis) and he knew the rest. What stood out was that very few of them had jobs that were now good enough to buy the houses they were living in let alone the cars parked outside.

That was 2004/5.

What you will witness is the slow elimination of nice stuff over the next few years.

Holidays will be cut first with people saying Oh we didn't bother this year because of X,Y or Z.

Then the car won't be replaced for 'a better model', lease or otherwise because of X,Y or Z.

Then the house won't be frivolously 'invested in'.

In the meantime the pubs have shut, restaurants have closed and people have got used to 'not bothering' plus the shops 'up-town' have closed and to be honest the place is a dodgy shit hole so its not nice to go there so 'we do everything online' as its so much easier.

All of a sudden everywhere and everything is like 1970s Skelmersdale or 1980s Poland and everyone is shocked, but its too late because its already happened and most folk realise they are effectively broke as their dream was in reality on all the credit that has finally been spunked by the government on Covid to keep half the country (who were not needed after all) sat on their arses to 'save the NHS'.

[MrLibertyRedux 6,116]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

The beginning of the end for me was when I was stood in front of my mates house and we were looking at the houses opposite, I knew a number of people who lived in them (3 bed semis) and he knew the rest. What stood out was that very few of them had jobs that were now good enough to buy the houses they were living in let alone the cars parked outside.

That was 2004/5.

What you will witness is the slow elimination of nice stuff over the next few years.

Holidays will be cut first with people saying Oh we didn't bother this year because of X,Y or Z.

Then the car won't be replaced for 'a better model', lease or otherwise because of X,Y or Z.

Then the house won't be frivolously 'invested in'.

In the meantime the pubs have shut, restaurants have closed and people have got used to 'not bothering' plus the shops 'up-town' have closed and to be honest the place is a dodgy shit hole so its not nice to go there so 'we do everything online' as its so much easier.

All of a sudden everywhere and everything is like 1970s Skelmersdale or 1980s Poland and everyone is shocked, but its too late because its already happened and most folk realise they are effectively broke as their dream was in reality on all the credit that has finally been spunked by the government on Covid to keep half the country (who were not needed after all) sat on their arses to 'save the NHS'.

I'm starting to see people in that exact demographic who have kids who are hitting or about to hit early adulthood suddenly start squirming and looking quite uncomfortable. You can almost hear the cogs turning.

Edited February 3 by MrLibertyRedux
Addition

[reformed nice guy 1,282]

I am seeing this in young people as well.

If your average attractiveness, average intelligence, from an average family, in an average part of the country, with an average job then your screwed.

You wont be able to afford what, one generation ago, would have been considered an average standard of living - average house, start a family, stable job, some prosepect for advancement, decent pension, job security.

Instead its searching tinder for the least degraded woman, renting a shit flat, hiring a car, zero hour or equally unstable job.

I think its why so many young men just spend their days online, wanking or playing computer games

[mosstrooper 294]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

The beginning of the end for me was when I was stood in front of my mates house and we were looking at the houses opposite, I knew a number of people who lived in them (3 bed semis) and he knew the rest. What stood out was that very few of them had jobs that were now good enough to buy the houses they were living in let alone the cars parked outside.

That was 2004/5.

What you will witness is the slow elimination of nice stuff over the next few years.

Holidays will be cut first with people saying Oh we didn't bother this year because of X,Y or Z.

Then the car won't be replaced for 'a better model', lease or otherwise because of X,Y or Z.

Then the house won't be frivolously 'invested in'.

In the meantime the pubs have shut, restaurants have closed and people have got used to 'not bothering' plus the shops 'up-town' have closed and to be honest the place is a dodgy shit hole so its not nice to go there so 'we do everything online' as its so much easier.

All of a sudden everywhere and everything is like 1970s Skelmersdale or 1980s Poland and everyone is shocked, but its too late because its already happened and most folk realise they are effectively broke as their dream was in reality on all the credit that has finally been spunked by the government on Covid to keep half the country (who were not needed after all) sat on their arses to 'save the NHS'.

i see the problem is the printing of money and loose lending that caused all the above, means nobody can really get a competitive edge to become self reliant as theres too many people all looking to do the same thing with buckets of fake cash. Simple things like geting a burger van its pointless because you wouldnt get a pitch as its all tied up, so theres very little opportunity anywhere, except get a 9 to 5 government job. You just cant go out , set up a stall, and sell 5hit. hence why all the young sit playing computer games

 

[One percent 54,361]

1 hour ago, MrLibertyRedux said:

I'm starting to see people in that exact demographic who have kids who are hitting or about to hit early adulthood suddenly start squirming and looking quite uncomfortable. You can almost hear the cogs turning.

Fuck me, do people really have to experience stuff to understand it?  What happened to abstract thought?  

[One percent 54,361]

13 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I am seeing this in young people as well.

If your average attractiveness, average intelligence, from an average family, in an average part of the country, with an average job then your screwed.

You wont be able to afford what, one generation ago, would have been considered an average standard of living - average house, start a family, stable job, some prosepect for advancement, decent pension, job security.

Instead its searching tinder for the least degraded woman, renting a shit flat, hiring a car, zero hour or equally unstable job.

I think its why so many young men just spend their days online, wanking or playing computer games

Thank you for sharing your hobbies with us. 

btw, it’s you’re ffs. 

[Roger_Mellie 9,918]

12 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I am seeing this in young people as well.

If your average attractiveness, average intelligence, from an average family, in an average part of the country, with an average job then your screwed.

You wont be able to afford what, one generation ago, would have been considered an average standard of living - average house, start a family, stable job, some prosepect for advancement, decent pension, job security.

Instead its searching tinder for the least degraded woman, renting a shit flat, hiring a car, zero hour or equally unstable job.

I think its why so many young men just spend their days online, wanking or playing computer games

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world, there are loads of people getting on just fine. 

Do I worry about my kids? Yes. Is it going to be tough to compete and succeed? Yes. Is it going to be what you posted? Only if that's what you want. 

[Democorruptcy 10,710]

4 hours ago, AsiaRanger said:

Fucked this poll right up but basically I would like to hear the thoughts on Dosbods on how long we think we have before societal collapse as a result of infinite state debt and the infinite printing of money to cover it. After having had a quick flick through the book Spunko posted - LIFE WITHOUT POLITICIANS: PRESERVING FREEDOM AFTER THE STATE COLLAPSES as well as having  read a couple of articles on nationalist movements preparing for just that it got me thinking. 

If state debt and printing is infinite, what's the problem?

[mosstrooper 294]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

If state debt and printing is infinite, what's the problem?

devaluation of currency. inflation. otherwise we would all be millionaires etc. the problem is resources are finite so we all cant have everything. the romans did the infinite printing as they collapased (ie money was changed over time from 100% PM to 100% base metal which then became worthless). We are now in the end game of fiat money. paper /digital money has no intrinsic value and is worthless, and faith based currencies ALWAYS ends in disaster

 

[Democorruptcy 10,710]

5 minutes ago, mosstrooper said:

devaluation of currency. inflation. otherwise we would all be millionaires etc. the problem is resources are finite so we all cant have everything. the romans did the infinite printing as they collapased (ie money was changed over time from 100% PM to 100% base metal which then became worthless). We are now in the end game of fiat money. paper /digital money has no intrinsic value and is worthless, and faith based currencies ALWAYS ends in disaster

 

Therefore state debt and printing are not infinite, which was my point. Societal collapse happens when they reach their limit.

[Kurt Barlow 6,879]

3 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

And the slowly starts c. 2030 with Saudi.

Then you have above inflationary rises every year for energy and food until what you took for granted becomes unaffordable.  Meat free Mondays?  How about meat free months?  Car - forget it as you can forget owning a house now if you are low paid.  All your money is now going on keeping you alive.

Inexorably we get to this and then revolution becomes inevitable.

 

Many unskilled laborers toiled from 12 to 15 hours per day when they had work, living in squalid, disease-ridden slums. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848

 

I vote 10 - 20 and think the fiscal reasons irrelevant; it's when basic human needs become unaffordable to full time low paid workers that the SHTF.

I think you are too negative. Many people think the end of oil will herald the return of the horse for agriculture. No chance, working horses require about 13Lb of oats a day. You can't sustain them on grass. 

Renewables provide a reasonable transition away from oil, its a leaner world but a doable one with existing technology

Lets say oil disappears, what fuel will a farmer use to plough his fields - One answer is Ammonia. Diesel engines can be converted easily and the fuel can be produced locally using wind power with technology thats been around for 100 years. 

One 3MW wind turbine operating at 25% capacity (typical southern England environment) will produce the electricity to produce about 660 tons of Ammonia (10 Mwh/ton).

tractors under load typically consume 30-35L (26Kg) / 100km of diesel

Converted to Ammonia this would be 61Kg /100km of ammonia

One 3 MW low output turbine will fuel over 1 million tractor km a year. 

One 14MW offshore turbine would fuel over 10 million tractor km's a year. 

 

 

[JohnThePessimist 1,482]

1 minute ago, Kurt Barlow said:

I think you are too negative. Many people think the end of oil will herald the return of the horse for agriculture. No chance, working horses require about 13Lb of oats a day. You can't sustain them on grass. 

Renewables provide a reasonable transition away from oil, its a leaner world but a doable one with existing technology

Lets say oil disappears, what fuel will a farmer use to plough his fields - One answer is Ammonia. Diesel engines can be converted easily and the fuel can be produced locally using wind power with technology thats been around for 100 years. 

One 3MW wind turbine operating at 25% capacity (typical southern England environment) will produce the electricity to produce about 660 tons of Ammonia (10 Mwh/ton).

tractors under load typically consume 30-35L (26Kg) / 100km of diesel

Converted to Ammonia this would be 61Kg /100km of ammonia

One 3 MW low output turbine will fuel over 1 million tractor km a year. 

One 14MW offshore turbine would fuel over 10 million tractor km's a year. 

 

 

We will have tractors, hurrah tovarich Barlow! Where will the fertilisers come from?