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BP PLC - why all the hate?


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No One

I saw that BP went back down yesterday to it's March 14th level. 

Bought another 500 quids worth.

Why where the people on the reflation-to-come thread bashing it?

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No One

 

@Democorruptcy how do you analyse these documents? 

 

I'm a bit new to shares and trading so I'm trying to learn.

This week with the whole wallstreetbets debacle I learnt what the limit Buy on Trading 212 does and started using it.

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

In HL's BP research update after the results yesterday they said break even is $42 a barrel but they were aiming for a "cash balancing point towards $35". I couldn't find that on BP's own docs

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Democorruptcy
5 minutes ago, No One said:

 

@Democorruptcy how do you analyse these documents?

I don't over analyse documents. I just look to see if the premise seems reasonable. BP paid down debt and are going to pay me a dividend. Job done.

These trading updates etc are just a moment in time and you have to look at the bigger picture. In horse racing I used to think "form is temporary but class is permanent".

 

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Loki

@No One The best thing I ever read about oil companies was that you're being paid to absorb volatility.  I can't remember what the document was called now.

I too bought £500 more on the 1st, so I'm absorbing more than you, if it helps :D

I don't know why the thread has taken that turn, but I like the way it centres around the main theme with tangents, so I don't mind.

Edited by Loki
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wherebee

I don't think anyone is bashing anything on the credit thread.  It's a bunch of brains throwing ideas around for macro investing opps.

For BP, the question is whether the CEO is really woked up (which means bad decisions likely re investment) or greenwashing (where he says the right words, but cleans up on the real money making stuff).  BP seems the most outspoken of the big oilies on that stuff, so it's absolutely fair to question.

Disclosure: I love these BP dips.  Anything to bring my average price down.

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deathfunk

1. It's too big - what's the best you could hope for here? £52bn currently. If it does really well you might just squeeze a 10 bag out of it in 10 years. Very unlikely. You are more likely to time it right and get a two bag or three bag.

2. Is it dying a slow death paying dividends? SP looks like a bag of wank over the last few years. People will tell you to buy low and that this is perfect. Maybe. Like I say you very well may get a two bag in a year or two or it may continue to slide. The chart hardly looks like a compelling buy to me.

3. Established company but loss making. No doubt this is just because of the flash crash in oil earlier in the year. It's a one off and therefore a buying opportunity with two-to-three bag potential. Or maybe it continues its slide.

4. £74bn of debt according to LSE and increasing Y/O/Y. No doubt they can continue to service this. Maybe they can't. Maybe that's why the SP continues to slide. It's hardly a selling point for the stock though is it?

Overall, I can't see why an individual investor would bother buying in here for a 50/50 chance of a two/three bag. Are there not any better stocks around with better risk/reward profiles than this? That's not to say it won't go up, but likely it will only do so slowly, and you might just find your time and capital slowly being eroded instead.

Avoid it and find something better.

 

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MrXxxx
On 04/02/2021 at 01:48, wherebee said:

I don't think anyone is bashing anything on the credit thread.  It's a bunch of brains throwing ideas around for macro investing opps.

For BP, the question is whether the CEO is really woked up (which means bad decisions likely re investment) or greenwashing (where he says the right words, but cleans up on the real money making stuff).  BP seems the most outspoken of the big oilies on that stuff, so it's absolutely fair to question.

Disclosure: I love these BP dips.  Anything to bring my average price down.

Also bear in mind after Deep Horizon they have a lot of PR work to do....I always say `don't listen to what someone says, watch what they do`....fortunately a lot of people do the opposite, hence BPs unloved status=lower price= :-)

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Democorruptcy
On 04/02/2021 at 01:48, wherebee said:

Disclosure: I love these BP dips.  Anything to bring my average price down.

Why?

Nothing wrong with investing more and bringing your average price down if there is a dip. However if I thought there was going to be a dip, my aim then would be to use it to accumulate more units.

 

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wherebee
12 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Why?

Nothing wrong with investing more and bringing your average price down if there is a dip. However if I thought there was going to be a dip, my aim then would be to use it to accumulate more units.

 

that's what I mean - chance to get more units.  As per the other thread,  I sold and bought again and got 50 shares for free.

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Democorruptcy
12 minutes ago, wherebee said:

that's what I mean - chance to get more units.  As per the other thread,  I sold and bought again and got 50 shares for free.

Did your average price go up or down?

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wherebee
6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Did your average price go up or down?

down...........but I know what you mean in that you could look at it as selling the 'cheapest' tranche and then rebuying at a higher price, rather than selling the 'costliest' tranche and rebuying.

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Democorruptcy
5 hours ago, wherebee said:

down...........but I know what you mean in that you could look at it as selling the 'cheapest' tranche and then rebuying at a higher price, rather than selling the 'costliest' tranche and rebuying.

a) Say your average price was 2.26, sold at 3.02 (say 1000 shares) bought back at 2.51 (say 1200 shares from proceeds of sale). That's 200 extra units but the average price goes up.

b) Say your average price was 4.02 sold at 3.02 (say 1000 shares) bought back at 2.51 (say 1200 shares from proceeds of sale). That's 200 extra units but the average price goes down.

So you did more like b)?

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Snark

Not buying BP for dividend atm.
I'm buying the lows, selling at the highs, taking profit when I can, took £110 profit on the 14/1, bought 100 shares on 2/2, I think it'll keep bouncing of the 250ish support for a few months, i'm not happy going long at the current share price, but if it plummets now then i'll just buy more around 200ish and go long with the average.

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wherebee
On 06/02/2021 at 22:39, Democorruptcy said:

a) Say your average price was 2.26, sold at 3.02 (say 1000 shares) bought back at 2.51 (say 1200 shares from proceeds of sale). That's 200 extra units but the average price goes up.

b) Say your average price was 4.02 sold at 3.02 (say 1000 shares) bought back at 2.51 (say 1200 shares from proceeds of sale). That's 200 extra units but the average price goes down.

So you did more like b)?

I think I did a, although one tranche I bought was above the recent sale price (and repurchase price) and so B for that tranche.

What I do know is that for those shares I sold and bought again over a week or so, I got a meaningful lump of free units after trading costs taken into account....

But you make a very valueable point about average pricing on the whole holding.  I'll work that into teaching my son (see other thread in share trading).

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stokiescum
On 04/02/2021 at 15:10, deathfunk said:

1. It's too big - what's the best you could hope for here? £52bn currently. If it does really well you might just squeeze a 10 bag out of it in 10 years. Very unlikely. You are more likely to time it right and get a two bag or three bag.

2. Is it dying a slow death paying dividends? SP looks like a bag of wank over the last few years. People will tell you to buy low and that this is perfect. Maybe. Like I say you very well may get a two bag in a year or two or it may continue to slide. The chart hardly looks like a compelling buy to me.

3. Established company but loss making. No doubt this is just because of the flash crash in oil earlier in the year. It's a one off and therefore a buying opportunity with two-to-three bag potential. Or maybe it continues its slide.

4. £74bn of debt according to LSE and increasing Y/O/Y. No doubt they can continue to service this. Maybe they can't. Maybe that's why the SP continues to slide. It's hardly a selling point for the stock though is it?

Overall, I can't see why an individual investor would bother buying in here for a 50/50 chance of a two/three bag. Are there not any better stocks around with better risk/reward profiles than this? That's not to say it won't go up, but likely it will only do so slowly, and you might just find your time and capital slowly being eroded instead.

Avoid it and find something better.

 

Ouch

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Democorruptcy
8 hours ago, wherebee said:

I think I did a, although one tranche I bought was above the recent sale price (and repurchase price) and so B for that tranche.

What I do know is that for those shares I sold and bought again over a week or so, I got a meaningful lump of free units after trading costs taken into account....

But you make a very valueable point about average pricing on the whole holding.  I'll work that into teaching my son (see other thread in share trading).

I did a) with the prices listed but a different amount of shares. My average price went up. I'm struggling to see how you got free shares AND your average price went down. The b) scenario obtains more shares but it also realises a loss on the shares that were sold but had been previously bought at a higher price. Therefore the extra shares would not be "free". In the case of b) they wouldn't they in effect cost £5 each i.e. £1000 loss realised for 200 shares? The average price does goes down.

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wherebee
2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I did a) with the prices listed but a different amount of shares. My average price went up. I'm struggling to see how you got free shares AND your average price went down. The b) scenario obtains more shares but it also realises a loss on the shares that were sold but had been previously bought at a higher price. Therefore the extra shares would not be "free". In the case of b) they wouldn't they in effect cost £5 each i.e. £1000 loss realised for 200 shares? The average price does goes down.

magic.  here in australia we have dreamtime magic.

 

edit: ran the numbers and you are right, my average went up from just under 20 to just over 20 per unit.   (ADRs).  I did, however, end up with over 30 extra units after trading costs.  That's 10 bucks every quarter at the moment - 40 bucks a year, say.  every little helps in terms of return on investment.

If I've got that logic wrong, feel free to point out?

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